Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Mannlicher on September 04, 2017, 10:07:21 AM
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Here we go again. Irma is churning along westward in the Atlantic. Looks fairly certain it will impact Florida. Not so worried about our place in North FL, but I am concerned about the condo in Miami. Right on Biscayne Bay. Wife is working down there now, and I'm trying to talk her into driving up to North FL early. So far, she says her stubborn self is staying down there.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/hurricane-irma
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>:D Buy a big fat term insurance policy on her stubborn self, now. >:D
(Couldn't resist. Have just been researching killings for the insurance money. So my thinking is somewhat negatively colored.)
Actually I hope all turns out OK. Been through at least two hurricanes that went up the coast to NY when I lived there. Not fun, even in their somewhat depleted state.
Terry
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I might not be going to Jamaica on Saturday.
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I'm eyeing it myself.
I'm hoping it barrels into south Fl (sorry about your condo) rather then hitting the gulf and turning north. Storms just offshore push a lot of water into Tampa Bay.
My place is pretty high, but prolonged power outages can suck.
Also, Mrs. Mush didn't trim any trees while I was deployed, so I have some chainsaw work to do this week.
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Fairly technical article here: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma
Looks like a predominance of the computer projections leans toward Irma looping around south Florida and moving up along the Gulf coast.
(https://s.w-x.co/wu/gfs-sep4.png)
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Hmmm... nearly all of those tracks will end up bringing us some rain. Looks like it's just a matter of how much it will have left when it gets here.
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Looks like it's going to suck to be in Cuba.
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Looks like it's going to suck even more to be in Cuba.
FTFY
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We have friends who live in Cape Coral and Ft. Myers. The elevation is less than 5 feet in the Cape and around 8 in Ft. Myers. We also have a place rented for the winter in Ft. Myers. I sincerely hope that critter takes a hard right turn and stays out in the Atlantic.
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We have friends who live in Cape Coral and Ft. Myers. The elevation is less than 5 feet in the Cape and around 8 in Ft. Myers. We also have a place rented for the winter in Ft. Myers. I sincerely hope that critter takes a hard right turn and stays out in the Atlantic.
I hope so as well, even though I no longer have family in Florida. The FL Governor has declared a state of emergency ahead of the possible landfall later this week. Prudent move in my view.
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/04/florida-gov-declares-state-of-emergency-over-hurricane-irma/
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The 1800z GFS model shows an early Sunday landfall in south Fl. They are showing predicting it to hit with 140ish mph winds and run up the State.
That'll make a mess.
We'll see when that right turn actually starts, and how sharp it is. 6 or 12 hours difference in when it turns could be a real big deal with this one.
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Fingers crossed for all you Floridians and Texans.
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We have friends who live in Cape Coral and Ft. Myers. The elevation is less than 5 feet in the Cape and around 8 in Ft. Myers. We also have a place rented for the winter in Ft. Myers. I sincerely hope that critter takes a hard right turn and stays out in the Atlantic.
On the current track, the Florida west coast should be mostly safe. The tidal surge will get pushed away from land.
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On the current track, the Florida west coast should be mostly safe. The tidal surge will get pushed away from land.
It's too far out to even think that out loud.
This far out the models slide back and forth a couple hundred miles each time they run them.
We should know approx how screwed FL is thurs night.
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Fairly technical article here: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma
Looks like a predominance of the computer projections leans toward Irma looping around south Florida and moving up along the Gulf coast.
(https://s.w-x.co/wu/gfs-sep4.png)
I'm guessing all those black crosses and grey dots are oilwell heads and drilling platforms.
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http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/05/virgin-islands-allows-national-guard-to-seize-guns-ammo-ahead-of-hurricane-irma/
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Could be coming to my front yard. Good times.
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Could be coming to my front yard. Good times.
If it does, I want a full report before I move down there...
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The Constitution prohibits that IIRC! I say give them the projectiles...
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Right about now I'm thinking Montana, Wyoming, or Idaho is looking like an area to which to retire. As much as I dislike winter and snow, I dislike having the roof blow off my house even more.
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Right about now I'm thinking Montana, Wyoming, or Idaho is looking like an area to which to retire. As much as I dislike winter and snow, I dislike having the roof blow off my house even more.
Winter happens every single year. And it's a couple months of suck. A Hurricane is a more rare occurrence. Plus the the area I'm looking at is 2+ hours inland, so storm surge is out. I will worry about flooding, so I want something a bit above everything else. But I'm more concerned about the other effects.
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Winter happens every single year. And it's a couple months of suck.
That's why I'm going for the Idaho banana belt. Some years they don't even get snow to speak of.
Fingers crossed for all the FL members!
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http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/05/virgin-islands-allows-national-guard-to-seize-guns-ammo-ahead-of-hurricane-irma/
Well, that aint gonna happen.
Here is the actual order: http://dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NATL-GUARD.pdf
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One of the reasons I returned to Oklahoma after I got out of the Navy.
I was at least peripherally affected by 6 different hurricanes while I was in.
I've lived in Oklahoma a total of 28 years and I've never had any damage from a tornado.
We haven't even had any significant snow fall since winter of 2010-11.
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Well, that aint gonna happen.
Here is the actual order: http://dailycaller.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/NATL-GUARD.pdf
What are they gonna do, confiscate peoples shotguns so they can shoot the hurricane?
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And if you unzoom the NHC/NOAA maps, there's Tropical Storm Jose right behind Irma...
http://wx.hamweather.com/tropical/2017/atlantic/jose/clir/latest.html
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Jose is veering into the atlantic.
Irma is a monster though.
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http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/05/virgin-islands-allows-national-guard-to-seize-guns-ammo-ahead-of-hurricane-irma/
From the look of the order, it's not worded to be a blanket seizure. But rather, that they can requisition stuff specifically for the emergency. And that they will pay for it.
I have less of a problem with that, so long as just compensation is provided.
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I hadn't heard there was a Jose storm yet. I think Katia is next and then Lee. If we get a Hurricane Lee, stay away from New Orleans.
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From the look of the order, it's not worded to be a blanket seizure. But rather, that they can requisition stuff specifically for the emergency. And that they will pay for it.
I have less of a problem with that, so long as just compensation is provided.
And so long as they are not tearing down your house to get it.
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I really need to start my "Defend the 3A" charity/fundraising
scam errrrr group. ...
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I hadn't heard there was a Jose storm yet.
Stolen from another forum...
Don't worry. [Trump's] not letting a hurricane with a name like Jose in the States.
Chris
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Stolen from another forum...
Don't worry. [Trump's] not letting a hurricane with a name like Jose in the States.
Chris
Tip your waitresses, ladies and germs, he'll be here all week!
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And so long as they are not tearing down your house to get it.
One thing the Constitution got wrong. "Just compensation" should not have been allowed, but something along par "three times market value if the owner doesn't wish to sell or the government needs to seize legitimately in a crisis."
It would at least make the government pause and think it over a bit first.
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One thing the Constitution got wrong. "Just compensation" should not have been allowed, but something along par "three times market value if the owner doesn't wish to sell or the government needs to seize legitimately in a crisis."
It would at least make the government pause and think it over a bit first.
From what I just read over on The Firing Line, the U.S. Virgin Islands don't operate under the COTUS. In fact, they don't have any constitution at all.
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From the look of the order, it's not worded to be a blanket seizure. But rather, that they can requisition stuff specifically for the emergency. And that they will pay for it.
I have less of a problem with that, so long as just compensation is provided.
From that perspective, it could even be that someone, some .org, maybe a LEA already wanted to give the NG on the USVI some guns, assuming maybe they don't have any, or enough, and the governor wanted it to be extra super-duper legal etc.
But life without tinfoil is much more boring...
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https://www.earthcam.com/world/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas
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https://www.earthcam.com/world/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas
"This cam is temporarily unavailable"
Not surprising...
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http://dailycaller.com/2017/09/05/virgin-islands-allows-national-guard-to-seize-guns-ammo-ahead-of-hurricane-irma/
Meanwhile in FL:
http://concealednation.org/2017/09/reminder-to-florida-residents-your-governor-signed-a-bill-allowing-concealed-carry-during-emergency-evacuations/
During declared emergencies a mandatory evacuation, you don't need a permit to carry concealed. (Now if we could just get Open Carry)
edited because I actually read the bill, and had mis-typed what it does.
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From what I just read over on The Firing Line, the U.S. Virgin Islands don't operate under the COTUS. In fact, they don't have any constitution at all.
They are part of these United States, the US Constitution most certainly applies to restrain the Federal Government.
And I can hardly see a situation where the NG needs to grab private citizen's firearms. And given that gun ownership is already fairly difficult in many US Territories, I really can't see that happening.
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And so long as they are not tearing down your house to get it.
From the pics I've seen of the VI the houses are already torn down, it would just be a matter of picking through the rubble.
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Time to check out the chainsaw, looks like a mess when it sticks into my part of the mountains.
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Time to check out the chainsaw, looks like a mess when it sticks into my part of the mountains.
Have they definitely decided it's going east, then? Because the report this morning said they wouldn't really be able to tell when it would turn until late Thursday.
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I think this is their current best guess on where Irma will track
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4366/36932902801_c7d3d9dec2_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/YgCMhe)irma track (https://flic.kr/p/YgCMhe) by lmmiers (https://www.flickr.com/photos/19769480@N08/), on Flickr
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I think this is their current best guess on where Irma will track
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4366/36932902801_c7d3d9dec2_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/YgCMhe)irma track (https://flic.kr/p/YgCMhe) by lmmiers (https://www.flickr.com/photos/19769480@N08/), on Flickr
Is that the African Model or the European Model?
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I think this is their current best guess on where Irma will track
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4366/36932902801_c7d3d9dec2_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/YgCMhe)irma track (https://flic.kr/p/YgCMhe) by lmmiers (https://www.flickr.com/photos/19769480@N08/), on Flickr
Well, that certainly narrows it down -- to the northern hemisphere.
This morning's compilation of several computer predictions. Looks like they're thinking it'll run up the east coast of Florida -- probably.
(https://s.w-x.co/wu/irma-gfs-ensemble-12Z-9.2.17.png)
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Wait...what the hell.... looks like it'll go through Chicago in quite a few of those models in the second picture. (that's dated 3 Sep 2017 or 3 days ago, let me see if I can find something a bit more current...)
Most models still show it running up the east coast....However, the European model (touted to be more accurate) paints a giant bullseye on Miami.
Either way, if I lived in Florida, my ass would be headed north...Evac order or no...Because I heard they are going to wait until they get Thursday's model(s) as whether or not to order the Evacuation, but then everyone and their brother will be headed north, and it will be a giant cluster, with gas stations out of fuel, traffic jams, etc....Even worse then trying to ride it out...Run...Run NOW !!!!)
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/
And many models show that our South Cackalacky Triumvirate will get Irma right in the puss if it doesn't sink Florida...
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Have they definitely decided it's going east, then? Because the report this morning said they wouldn't really be able to tell when it would turn until late Thursday.
I believe no model. Thing will be so big that something will end up here no matter where it goes. And I have stubborn as well as not stubborn old people to keep tabs on. I miss the good old days when a hurricane was good because it disappeared the road in front of school so no school was had for a good long while. Or my dad driving us to the beach specifically to be in the path of a cat 1 landfall because tourism or something. Or sitting on my city house porch in another weak storm cooking the thawing ribs on the grill, drinking bourbon, reading questionable magazines with an AR-15 propped against the wall wishing my hood had proper looters.
Hurricanes with responsibility are no fun.
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(https://pics.me.me/texas-we-just-had-the-worst-hurricane-n-recorded-history-florida-27574027.png)
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Either way, if I lived inSoutheast Florida, my ass would be headed north...Evac order or no...Because I heard they are going to wait until they gets Thursday's model(s) as whether or not to order the Evacuation, but then everyone and their brother will be headed north, and it will be a giant cluster, with gas stations out of fuel, traffic jams, etc....Every worse then trying to ride it out...Run...Run NOW !!!!)
FTFY,
FL is a big state, if you evacuated From Tallahassee for this storm, you'd be an idiot. Hell, I'm not going anywhere, and I live just Northeast of Tampa.
Also, making evacuation decisions based on the 5 day predictions is an exercise in futility. They are so inaccurate, I know several people that evacuated IN to hurricanes based on the 5 day "Cone". Unless you live in the Keys or something, 72 hours is enough time to GTFO if needed.
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At least in the CONUS there is someplace to go.
I got to ride out hurricane Iwa on Oahu in November 1982. At least Pearl Harbor didn't take a direct hit but it was still a *expletive deleted*it show.
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At least in the CONUS there is someplace to go.
I got to ride out hurricane Iwa on Oahu in November 1982. At least Pearl Harbor didn't take a direct hit but it was still a *expletive deleted*it show.
Mistake we made in Mexico was not renting a car and fleeing north to TJ.
Odile was a *expletive deleted*it show for sure!
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Mistake we made in Mexico was not renting a car and fleeing north to TJ.
Odile was a *expletive deleted*it show for sure!
If you had gone to TJ, the shitshow would have turned into a donkey show. :D
Chris
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Kudos to a particularly ballsy Delta Airlines crew: http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-delta-flight-puerto-rico/
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"Mistake we made in Mexico was not renting a car and fleeing north to TJ."
No, the mistake was being IN Mexico, willingly, in the first place.
You could not pay me enough money to entice me to visit Mexico right now.
I would LOVE to go see the ruins, but I don't want to get caught up in their drug wars, their tainted alcohol wars, or any of the other million and ten shitshows that are the main attraction in Mexico right now.
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(https://scontent-ort2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/21317786_871204823045975_5856278702645581748_n.jpg?oh=6530d1497281a08621fc88e622fb20a2&oe=5A15332A)
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Well, we got our first wave of evacuee's at our shop this morning. Five anatolians, who's two people will be staying with my boss's until they can go home and a Chinese Chrested (I don't know where it's lady is staying)
I don't know if more are coming. I know Katie put out an open invite for their farm.
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"Pride goeth before a fall."
http://metro.co.uk/2017/09/07/richard-bransons-luxury-necker-island-home-completely-destroyed-by-hurricane-irma-6909022/
Just a day or so ago, Richard Branson refused to evacuate his private island in the Caribbean because he was certain it was solidly built and could withstand the storm. The storm must not have read the interview, because it destroyed the home.
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"Pride goeth before a fall."
http://metro.co.uk/2017/09/07/richard-bransons-luxury-necker-island-home-completely-destroyed-by-hurricane-irma-6909022/
Just a day or so ago, Richard Branson refused to evacuate his private island in the Caribbean because he was certain it was solidly built and could withstand the storm. The storm must not have read the interview, because it destroyed the home.
Of course Irma read the story, then said, "hold my beer and watch this *expletive deleted*it".
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I left Ft Lauderdale yesterday around 1pm. It took me two hours to get enough gas to get out of the area, then I was able to fill up and keep going. And just getting out of south Florida was a pain, since everyone else was headed north, too.
About half of the gas stations were out of gas, the other half were packed with people trying to get gas. Most everyone was polite, but I did see one a-hole jump the line. For a minute I thought he might get some street discipline, but no joy.
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Kudos to a particularly ballsy Delta Airlines crew: http://miami.cbslocal.com/2017/09/06/hurricane-irma-delta-flight-puerto-rico/
Wasn't that bad. Winds were light, and just heavy rain. Not convective.
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"Pride goeth before a fall."
http://metro.co.uk/2017/09/07/richard-bransons-luxury-necker-island-home-completely-destroyed-by-hurricane-irma-6909022/
Just a day or so ago, Richard Branson refused to evacuate his private island in the Caribbean because he was certain it was solidly built and could withstand the storm. The storm must not have read the interview, because it destroyed the home.
Would you want to evacuate when you have a fully stocked wine cellar?
I certainly wouldn't.
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I'm in Sarasota, getting boarded up and preparing as much as possible.
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I'm in Sarasota, getting boarded up and preparing as much as possible.
I've got a sister in West Palm Beach and niece in Vero Beach. I've offered to fly them (and their families) out and to stay with me here in Hurricane free Chicago, but both have decided to batten down the hatches and ride it out. Decisions that do not give me warm fuzzies....The models show Florida taking this one right up the length of the state. I fear this thing is going to be a killer.
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Wasn't that bad. Winds were light, and just heavy rain. Not convective.
Even when it is "bad", I never in my time met a single hurricane hunter pilot who had any really scary story to tell about flying the P-3s through hurricanes, other than mechanical issues. Thunderstorms were another story. Every one of them hated doing thunderstorm research.
AFAIK, there has only been one deadly incident in all the time these programs have been going on, and that was back in the 40s.
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Even when it is "bad", I never in my time met a single hurricane hunter pilot who had any really scary story to tell about flying the P-3s through hurricanes, other than mechanical issues. Thunderstorms were another story. Every one of them hated doing thunderstorm research.
AFAIK, there has only been one deadly incident in all the time these programs have been going on, and that was back in the 40s.
They have been really lucky considering the beating they take during these flights. Let's hope the luck holds forever.
There was an incident when flying into Hugo that the NOAA P3 got caught in a tornadic updraft and was nearly lost. They were able to regain control about 700ft and were led out through the eye wall by an Air Force C130 also in there.
Another time IIRC a P3 over the North Atlantic lost 3 engines due to salt build up on the intake vanes (?). I can't find the article but I have talked to the Flight Engineer on that flight a couple of times. It was a ass puckering event for them.
bob
Just some reading: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-hunter-turbulent-flight-patricia-irene-hugo
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Another time IIRC a P3 over the North Atlantic lost 3 engines due to salt build up on the intake vanes (?). I can't find the article but I have talked to the Flight Engineer on that flight a couple of times. It was a ass puckering event for them.
I was out drinking with some of the guys not on that flight right after. I can't remember the details anymore, but yeah, they thought that was it for them. One of them emailed me the after action. I need to see if I can find it in my old work archive.
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AFAIK, there has only been one deadly incident in all the time these programs have been going on, and that was back in the 40s.
It was a USN P2V, callsign Snowcloud Five, lost Sept. 26, 1955 while flying a penetration on hurricane "Janet". Its last transmission was:
"NAVY RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT 5U93, OBSERVATION NUMBER FIVE, AT 1330 GMT (8:30AM EST), MONDAY, LOCATED AT LATITUDE 15.4 DEGREES N, LONGITUDE 78.2 DEGREES W. OBLIQUE AND HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY 3-10 MILES, ALTITUDE 700 FEET, FLIGHT WIND 050 DEGREES (NE) 45 KNOTS (52 MPH). PRESENT WEATHER LIGHT INTERMITTENT SHOWERS, PAST WEATHER SAME, OVERCAST AND SOME SCUD BELOW, SURFACE PRESSURE 1,003 MILLIBARS (29.62 INCHES), SURFACE WINDS 050 DEGREES (NE), 45 KNOTS (52 MPH). BEGINNING PENETRATION."
Eleven souls on board, all lost, the aircraft was never found.
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AFAIK, there has only been one deadly incident in all the time these programs have been going on, and that was back in the 40s.
Yep. Before he shipped overseas in WW2, my father was stationed at Bryan Army Airfield in Texas. His best friend at Bryan was J.B. Jones-Burdick. According to family lore, JB was the first person to fly through the eye of a hurricane.
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They have been really lucky considering the beating they take during these flights. Let's hope the luck holds forever.
There was an incident when flying into Hugo that the NOAA P3 got caught in a tornadic updraft and was nearly lost. They were able to regain control about 700ft and were led out through the eye wall by an Air Force C130 also in there.
Another time IIRC a P3 over the North Atlantic lost 3 engines due to salt build up on the intake vanes (?). I can't find the article but I have talked to the Flight Engineer on that flight a couple of times. It was a ass puckering event for them.
bob
Just some reading: https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-hunter-turbulent-flight-patricia-irene-hugo
It's worth noting that as that Hugo penetration and slamming up and down was happening, one of their engines caught fire. So they got to circle inside the eye of Hugo trying to get some altitude to get out.
https://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2014/09/15/25th-anniversary-of-a-hairy-hop-into-hurricane-hugo/
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Getting back to one at hand. Current track shows it going up the west side of Florida. Hang On Dogmush.
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Current prediction has it making landfall as a cat 4 near Ft Myers. So, still cat 4 as it passes me and weak cat 4 or strong 3 near Tampa. What a ride.
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It looks like SC is not, at this time, going to get clobbered. However, we are going to get very, very wet, and possibly somewhat windblown. As some of you know, I work for the State Guard which means if anything really exciting happens, I get called. So we will see what happens.
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So, more rain for Houston, and points east?
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I'm in Sarasota, getting boarded up and preparing as much as possible.
I'm right up I75 from you. Let me know if you need anything once this goes through.
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I'm right up I75 from you. Let me know if you need anything once this goes through.
Thanks, will do.
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You FL folks hang tough. Keeping my fingers crossed for you.
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This came across on bookface on one of the sailing centric groups I'm in.
Haven't seen any validation yet but it does validate my preconceived notions of humanity.
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4361/36981534951_a19c16fa1c_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/YkW2Vz)
All the sailing cruising groups say you don't need guns in the BVI/Caribbean because they are all trpical paradises where everyone gets along and helps each other in hard times.
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This came across on bookface on one of the sailing centric groups I'm in.
Haven't seen any validation yet but it does validate my preconceived notions of humanity.
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4361/36981534951_a19c16fa1c_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/YkW2Vz)
All the sailing cruising groups say you don't need guns in the BVI/Caribbean because they are all trpical paradises where everyone gets along and helps each other in hard times.
I'm OCing on my property while I finish the last couple things. So are my neighbors. the one that's a cop is wearing his duty belt with shorts and a T-shirt. We live in a pretty good 'hood, but I have seen at least one car I think came from the trailer park a couple miles down the highway cruise through for no discernible reason. Most folks around here are cool, and are/will help each other out, but it only takes a couple aholes. That 3% rule works in both directions.
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If any of you are planning flights or vacations to anywhere in the Carribean in the next week or two, you might consider cancelling or delaying your trip. Many of the airports will be out of service for a while.
I was trying to go to Montego Bay, Jamaica today, but we just got cancelled because of Irma, radar and radio outages, and airport closures that affect of flight planning.
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Update:
Sheriff's Deputy drove by and saw me OC'ing in my yard while putting the last of the potted plants in the garage. (I was picking up the pots by the road, so about 10 feet into my property.)
Stopped Car, got out, and approached me in my yard.
......
Wanted to know if I thought the 229 Legion was worth the upgrade over the normal 229, and if the trigger work was as good as the magazines claim.
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Got the wife up from Miami on Wednesday. Here in North Central FL, Gainesville, there is no gas. No motel rooms. I-75 is still crawling. US 19/98 is crawling. Grocery store shelves are stripped bare. Plenty of booze at the liquor store though! I was able to pick up more Ron Zacapa Centenario , Larceny Bourbon and Tank 7 Farmhouse ale. :)
Looking like we will see a Cat 2 storm Monday morning. Cedar Key on the west coast, across to St Augustine on the East coast. I believe this is the first time that a single hurricane produced hurricane force winds on both coasts at the same time, all the way up the State. Amazing storm.
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Looks like it's hugging the Cuban North coast at least for now. Will it take a right turn or keep going toward Mexico??
Meanwhile, looks like Jose is following in the path of Irma. And they expect another storm to form in the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
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Looks like it's hugging the Cuban North coast at least for now. Will it take a right turn or keep going toward Mexico??
It's turning. It's already started a little. The steering winds in the gulf are grabbing her.
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So much to the highly touted European Model that showed it going straight into Miami...
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So, more rain for Houston, and points east?
Looks like it's either going to double back east, or just hang out at the confluence of GA, AL, TN. Here in SC we're definitely going to get really wet, just not sure how wet. And probably some nasty wind too.
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(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4389/36988679331_054880df87_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/YmyDGx)
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I think we got ~15 minutes of rain out of Harvey.
These 58F overnight lows and clear skies aren't so bad. Shop is closed Mondays, so I may load up the bike and go camping tomorrow after church.
CA/OR/ID/UT burn, FL blows and floods, Mexico shakes, Texas Gulf Coast gets a bath, and we don't need to water for a week or two.
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(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fvrcc.photostash.com%2Fvrcc_506%2FDetroit.jpg&hash=b93bfb7cad6a641561275569cee75524b7d08cd7)
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Without downplaying the danger to humans, this stuff just pisses me off to no end. I read about the same thing happening in Texas. If you're going to abandon your animals, at least give them a fighting chance. This is just disgusting.
http://amp.wptv.com/2345352745/more-than-50-animals-found-tethered-to-trees-in-palm-beach-county-as-irma-approaches.html
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Without downplaying the danger to humans, this stuff just pisses me off to no end. I read about the same thing happening in Texas. If you're going to abandon your animals, at least give them a fighting chance. This is just disgusting.
http://amp.wptv.com/2345352745/more-than-50-animals-found-tethered-to-trees-in-palm-beach-county-as-irma-approaches.html
Did we need further proof that humankind can be the shittiest, most selfish, uncaring animals in God's creation?
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The looting has started. Shoes seem to be popular. I'm sure the left will spin it as "necessity looting" as people that are wearing shoes steal shoes.
https://twitchy.com/jacobb-38/2017/09/10/meanwhile-in-fort-lauderdale-it-looks-as-if-looting-is-well-underway/
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And people in Naples are complaining that they can't evacuate because they didn't get enough advance warning. Unbelievable. For a week prior, ALL the projections have included the caveat that the computer models are not exact, that Irma is a huge storm, and that all parts of Florida wre under threat.
I guess it's human nature to have an over-reliance on technology. When my brother was service manager of a BMW dealership, they had a very new BMW brought in on a flatbed wrecker. The owner said it "just stopped running." A quick check showed that it stopped because it was out of gas.
The owner (a woman, but I don't know if she was blonde) said, "That's impossible. The computer said I still had three miles to go before I needed gas."
Yes, that is a true story.
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Here's one you don't see every day -- even during hurricanes:
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article172455117.html
So who gets to muck out the living room -- or the (ugh) kitchen?
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Out of curiosity -- what happened to Jose? I just zoomed out the weather radar and I don't see any sign of it.
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From the look of the order, it's not worded to be a blanket seizure. But rather, that they can requisition stuff specifically for the emergency. And that they will pay for it.
I have less of a problem with that, so long as just compensation is provided.
Sounds like a "gun buyback" to me....
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If you had gone to TJ, the shitshow would have turned into a donkey show. :D
Chris
Bad Moderator!
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Out of curiosity -- what happened to Jose? I just zoomed out the weather radar and I don't see any sign of it.
Depending on which radar you we viewing, it may not reach that far. Check the satellite data, Jose is still out there, following right on the heels of Irma... And another could be formed/organized by Wednesday.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/?atlc
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-animated.gif
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Well that was fun.
No power, trees and branches down, and a little water in one of my spare rooms.
We got a little lucky here in Tampa as she shifted back east a tic. Having some coffee, then i'll go into the attic to see where that water came from. I haven't pulled out the gen yet but I'll need to charge phones soon.
TimL, you good?
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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/world/americas/irma-caribbean-st-martin.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-abc-region®ion=span-abc-region&WT.nav=span-abc-region
Confirmation of the earlier report on St. Martin.
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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/world/americas/pope-francis-colombia.html?ribbon-ad-idx=4&rref=world/americas&module=Ribbon&version=context®ion=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Americas&pgtype=article
Confirmation of the earlier report on St. Martin.
That link goes to an article about the Pope and slavery.
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^^^ Fixed the link.
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Well that was fun.
No power, trees and branches down, and a little water in one of my spare rooms.
We got a little lucky here in Tampa as she shifted back east a tic. Having some coffee, then i'll go into the attic to see where that water came from. I haven't pulled out the gen yet but I'll need to charge phones soon.
TimL, you good?
Glad to hear you made it out relatively unscathed!
Though one of the things I hate dealing with most is water inside a place and the potential follow up problems. I hope you're able to dry things out quickly!
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Well that was fun.
No power, trees and branches down, and a little water in one of my spare rooms.
We got a little lucky here in Tampa as she shifted back east a tic. Having some coffee, then i'll go into the attic to see where that water came from. I haven't pulled out the gen yet but I'll need to charge phones soon.
TimL, you good?
Made out pretty good, have power, no trees down but do have a few branches down and a few panels of aluminum from a carport.
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What is this apparent storm in the north Atlantic? A nor'easter? I don't think it was there yesterday; that also means I don't know which direction it's moving, maybe it's moving east or north so nobody cares...
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-77.22,33.22,567
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Just a low pressure area. Not an issue.
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Thanks. It just looked awfully-well organized, with an eye.
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In another example of why corporations have a PR problem: Marriott Hotels chartered a ship with a capacity of 1800 people to evacuate 600 Marriott guests from St. Thomas. There were 35 non-Marriott guests at the pier who wanted to get off the island, and Marriott refused to allow them to board.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/tourists-left-stranded-hurricane-irma-11143338
"We very much wanted to assist these other travelers to Puerto Rico, however, the Marriott team on the ground was told they had no authorization to board additional passengers.
"With Hurricane Jose on a path to St. Thomas, the ferry had a tight window to pick up passengers and safely depart.
Really? How much longer would it have taken to allow 35 people to board? Would they have been denied boarding if they were Marriott guests, due to the "tight window"? I doubt it.
Shitty call by a shitty corporation. (Disclaimer: I have never been a Marriott employee, but I have worked for a company that did business with Marriott.)
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Everyone is afraid of liability these days. And because of that, everyone is afraid to make a decision without approval from three VPs and a focus group.
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Looks like the looting and armed robbery in St Martin is pretty freakin' out of hand. Interesting mental exercise to think about what I would do in that situation as an American tourist there. When I've been to the Caribbean in the past, it was for diving, so the best personal weapon I'd have on hand is my dive knife (and that got stolen out of my checked bag once when I was on Grand Cayman).
It would definitely be "improvised weapons and lay low" time I think. I'm a firm believer in the old saw about "there's no winner in a knife fight", so I'd probably be looking to make a club or something. I wonder what guns are available on St Martin that the looters are using?
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/12/looters-paradise-lawlessness-reportedly-rampant-in-caribbean-islands-devastated-by-hurricane-irma.html
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Everyone is afraid of liability these days. And because of that, everyone is afraid to make a decision without approval from three VPs and a focus group, and signoff from the risk managers and the lawyers.
I had to fix your potential liability in making that comment. :angel:
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Looks like the looting and armed robbery in St Martin is pretty freakin' out of hand. Interesting mental exercise to think about what I would do in that situation as an American tourist there. When I've been to the Caribbean in the past, it was for diving, so the best personal weapon I'd have on hand is my dive knife (and that got stolen out of my checked bag once when I was on Grand Cayman).
It would definitely be "improvised weapons and lay low" time I think. I'm a firm believer in the old saw about "there's no winner in a knife fight", so I'd probably be looking to make a club or something. I wonder what guns are available on St Martin that the looters are using?
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/12/looters-paradise-lawlessness-reportedly-rampant-in-caribbean-islands-devastated-by-hurricane-irma.html
It's a borderline third world shithole, they can pretty much get any guns they can afford.
Obviously the solution to this sort of problem is more gun control. Imagine if the civilian population was armed and able to defend themselves, the poor criminals would have a hard time making a living.
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When I was in Mexico, it took a couple days for looting to start. By then, the federales were moving in. Lady we met told us they were shooting looters. That's what chased her back to the US was when they started shooting them in her neighborhood. :rofl:
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Even Irma hates confederate memorials. =|
http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/fire/firefighters-battling-to-save-robert-e-lee-elementary-in-tampa-heights/2337254 (http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/fire/firefighters-battling-to-save-robert-e-lee-elementary-in-tampa-heights/2337254)
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https://pjmedia.com/faith/2017/09/11/the-best-kept-secret-in-disaster-relief-southern-baptists/
A reminder that Red Cross and the Salvation Army aren't your only choices to support for disaster relief.
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https://pjmedia.com/faith/2017/09/11/the-best-kept-secret-in-disaster-relief-southern-baptists/
A reminder that Red Cross and the Salvation Army aren't your only choices to support for disaster relief.
Mennonites and Catholics have big DR programs as well, and I think the Lutherans and Methodists and probably lots of other denominations do too. Then there's Franklin Graham's group Samaritan's Purse. When you donate to the Southern Baptist DR 100% of the money goes to DR, the overhead costs come out of a different budget. [disclosure: I'm a Southern Baptist] I can't speak to the other religious disaster relief orgs, they likely do the same.
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It's always a source of wonder and amazement that private DR orgs are able to use 90+% of the donations they receive to go directly to aid, as opposed to the .gov where 50+% goes to "Overhead" and salaries of the executives. (Red Cross excepted...)
But yes, I bet that the Lutherans, Methodists, Catholic DR orgs all direct most of their funding to actually helping those impacted as opposed to helping themselves (ala the Clinton Foundation.)
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Looks like the looting and armed robbery in St Martin is pretty freakin' out of hand. Interesting mental exercise to think about what I would do in that situation as an American tourist there. When I've been to the Caribbean in the past, it was for diving, so the best personal weapon I'd have on hand is my dive knife (and that got stolen out of my checked bag once when I was on Grand Cayman).
It would definitely be "improvised weapons and lay low" time I think. I'm a firm believer in the old saw about "there's no winner in a knife fight", so I'd probably be looking to make a club or something. I wonder what guns are available on St Martin that the looters are using?
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/12/looters-paradise-lawlessness-reportedly-rampant-in-caribbean-islands-devastated-by-hurricane-irma.html
Get good at using a sling? You could probably pack one of those in your carry-on bag.
I was thinking about an improvised spear, but a club would probably work better to ambush a gunman.
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https://pjmedia.com/faith/2017/09/11/the-best-kept-secret-in-disaster-relief-southern-baptists/
A reminder that Red Cross and the Salvation Army aren't your only choices to support for disaster relief.
And the Church of Rome will even dispatch nuns with chainsaws.
http://www.dailywire.com/news/21016/nun-used-chainsaw-clean-hurricane-irma-debris-and-aaron-bandler
The next Quentin Tarantino flick.
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And the Church of Rome will even dispatch nuns with chainsaws.
http://www.dailywire.com/news/21016/nun-used-chainsaw-clean-hurricane-irma-debris-and-aaron-bandler
The next Quentin Tarantino flick.
From Our Lady of the Immaculate Kerf, no doubt.
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"Officials in Manatee County, Florida are under fire after an interpreter for the deaf warned about pizza and monsters during an emergency briefing related to Hurricane Irma."
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/sign_language_interpreter_used.html
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"Officials in Manatee County, Florida are under fire after an interpreter for the deaf warned about pizza and monsters during an emergency briefing related to Hurricane Irma."
http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2017/09/sign_language_interpreter_used.html
I really hope that didn't have any tragic consequences for the hearing-impaired, because I was :rofl:
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They got him from the same place they got the guy for Obama's speech at Mandela's memorial service.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
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My fair City took a decent hit. It was not the same all over town though. Several tornadoes added to the mess. At the casa, highest winds were 54 mph. Some small downed limbs, streets flooded to a depth of two feet. Lost power for 13 hours.
I sheltered two friends from the West Coast. Hommosassa Springs and Old Town. We had a lot of fun, consumed a huge quantity of spirits, and rode it out in style. Home made bread, pasta and meat sauce, Cream of Chicken Soup with rice and a cake. Never lost water or gas for the range.
Did not fire up the generator at all. A cool day on Monday, and plenty of sunlight.
Florida is just not designed to evacuate millions of people. The State Government is damned if they call for early evac, and dammed if they don't. You just can't win, when trying to herd millions of folks out of harm's way.
It's the storm surge and water that kills, not the wind. Most people would be better served if they evacuated away from low lying areas and the coast. No need to go all the way to Atlanta.
My wife drove back to Miami this morning. Our Condo on Biscayne Bay was in fine shape.
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And the Church of Rome will even dispatch nuns with chainsaws.
http://www.dailywire.com/news/21016/nun-used-chainsaw-clean-hurricane-irma-debris-and-aaron-bandler
The next Quentin Tarantino flick.
Running a chainsaw with all that loose garb? Jeeze !
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My fair City took a decent hit. It was not the same all over town though. Several tornadoes added to the mess. At the casa, highest winds were 54 mph. Some small downed limbs, streets flooded to a depth of two feet. Lost power for 13 hours.
I sheltered two friends from the West Coast. Hommosassa Springs and Old Town. We had a lot of fun, consumed a huge quantity of spirits, and rode it out in style. Home made bread, pasta and meat sauce, Cream of Chicken Soup with rice and a cake. Never lost water or gas for the range.
Did not fire up the generator at all. A cool day on Monday, and plenty of sunlight.
Florida is just not designed to evacuate millions of people. The State Government is damned if they call for early evac, and dammed if they don't. You just can't win, when trying to herd millions of folks out of harm's way.
It's the storm surge and water that kills, not the wind. Most people would be better served if they evacuated away from low lying areas and the coast. No need to go all the way to Atlanta.
My wife drove back to Miami this morning. Our Condo on Biscayne Bay was in fine shape.
Glad to hear. You're in/near Jacksonville ?
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Running a chainsaw with all that loose garb? Jeeze !
That's exactly what I thought. She seemed competent enough with the saw, but but needs to cinch up her outfit so it doesn't get caught in the chain or by a branch that snaps back.