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Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: Scout26 on October 18, 2018, 01:30:00 AM

Title: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 18, 2018, 01:30:00 AM
Make your predictions for the future:
Senate - R+5
House - R+0-5
(and I think these are all on the low end.)

Chief of Staff when Kelley leaves - Newt Gingrich
UN Ambassador - Richard A. Grenell (Current ambassador to Germany.  Oh, and he's gay, which will mean  [popcorn] during his confirmation hearing)
Attorney General - Trey Gowdy
Defense - Mattis stays
State - Pompeo stays
Education - DeVos stays

There might be some other lesser players that leave.

Trump's "Everyone cut your budgets 5% will drive the base to the polls."


Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Pb on October 18, 2018, 09:09:39 AM
No clue!
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on October 18, 2018, 09:26:57 AM
I'm really at a "no clue" point myself right now. Other than I'm beginning to think this is going to be one of those outlier years where the majority party stays in power.

I was first thinking that progs would be extra fired up, and cons a bit lax, after the Kavanaugh confirmation. While the progs are certainly fired up, they are TOO fired up, what with the violent physical attacks and abhorrent verbal attacks going on everywhere. I think they are energizing the R base even more than if Kavanaugh were not confirmed. "Mob" is almost a euphemistic way to describe them at this point, IMO.

If the Rs end up holding both houses, I will be very interested to see the prog reactions and rationalizations.

Case in point on the whacko behavior:

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/10/18/cuckoo-for-cocoa-puffs-watch-raving-lunatic-in-nifty-gold-pants-destroy-ted-cruz-yard-signs/

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/10/18/oooomg-so-theres-more-to-the-video-of-the-antifa-thug-who-attacked-9-11-widow-youve-gotta-see-this/
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RoadKingLarry on October 18, 2018, 09:29:58 AM
Quote
If the Rs end up holding both houses, I will be very interested to see the prog reactions and rationalizations.

I would expect the rending of garments and gnashing of teeth would get turned up to 11. Along with and exponential increase in violence against the right.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on October 18, 2018, 09:49:16 AM
I'm really at a "no clue" point myself right now. Other than I'm beginning to think this is going to be one of those outlier years where the majority party stays in power.

I was first thinking that progs would be extra fired up, and cons a bit lax, after the Kavanaugh confirmation. While the progs are certainly fired up, they are TOO fired up, what with the violent physical attacks and abhorrent verbal attacks going on everywhere. I think they are energizing the R base even more than if Kavanaugh were not confirmed. "Mob" is almost a euphemistic way to describe them at this point, IMO.

If the Rs end up holding both houses, I will be very interested to see the prog reactions and rationalizations.

Case in point on the whacko behavior:

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/10/18/cuckoo-for-cocoa-puffs-watch-raving-lunatic-in-nifty-gold-pants-destroy-ted-cruz-yard-signs/

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/10/18/oooomg-so-theres-more-to-the-video-of-the-antifa-thug-who-attacked-9-11-widow-youve-gotta-see-this/
I am leaning toward the R's keeping what they have and gaining a few seats.  Everything I hear says R's are leading in races and Democrats are trending down.  I am hopeful for big gains, but I don't want to follow that too far.  Now most of what I have heard about is Senate races.  House races are much more local and I haven't heard anyone get into the details on that.  IMO, the Democrat blue wave talk seems to be more wishful thinking on their part than reality.  Also, I am hearing noises about minorities being upset with Democrat Party, but I don't know how far to take that.  Even a few percent movement there is big.  Lots of things up in the air.

I disagree on what you said about the Kavanaugh confirmation.  I think if the R's had failed to get Kavanaugh nominated, the result would have been Republican voters staying home out of disgust since those same Republicans are running for election.  The victory encouraged voters who think they might actually useful things.    
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: dogmush on October 18, 2018, 09:56:07 AM
My bet is that if the "Blue Wave" doesn't materialize you will see NYT editorials about our election process is obsolete and the Legislature should be disbanded.  Maybe something about only college educated folks should vote.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: French G. on October 18, 2018, 11:41:56 AM
I bet that the reaction after the repubs stay in will ensure a Trump 2020 win. Unless #walkaway becomes the party the L could have been.

Senate is a done deal. House may go slightly blue.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: AJ Dual on October 18, 2018, 11:51:08 AM
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1052710045375295488.html (https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1052710045375295488.html)

This guy likes to look at hard data rather than polls. He uses new voter registrations, and early/absentee votes where it can be tied to political parties instead.

I'm now feeling confident that the blue wave ain't gonna happen. And at minimum,  the GOP will hold the house.

I'm cautiously optimistic that there could be actual gains in the House by the GOP beyond the predictions of 1-2 Senators.

And while I think that it's too much to hope for, I would not be surprised or shocked if there was a red wave instead.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 18, 2018, 11:53:56 AM
The whole "Blue Wave" talk started right after the 2016 election, simply because it has been traditional that the party out of power gains seats in Congress in the midterms.  And since the D's were extra "fired up" (aka angry) about the Trump election, their belief was that even more people would vote D.

Then Trump started keeping his promises.  The economy improved.  The tax cuts were passed. (which should have been done so that took effect last year, so people would know how much that impacted them when they go to polls in Nov.  (R Ad- "Hey, remember that extra money you got in your refund last spring and your paychecks...Yeah 'D' Candidate and Nancy Pelosi want to take that money from you.")

And yes, the Kavanaugh hearings, the giant clown show that went along with it, and now the (ongoing) D campaign violence, (not to mention the Project Veritas videos, Hypocricy (Ellison), along with other videos (Cinema), and "Own Goals" (Warren, Heitkamp and others), is driving independents to the R's as they are being seen as the party of the adults

And that's mainly due to the alternative news sources.  Fox News, FB, Twitter, other social media, means that the MSM has lost control of the narrative.  No matter how much they try to "shape" the news as the had for many, many years, they are now being constantly called out for their lies, deceit, and clear bias.  And when called out they try to pass them off as "errors".  But if if they were honest mistakes, then at least some of them would be favorable to the Trump (and by extension the R's) but they are NEVER in Trump's favor.  
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ron on October 18, 2018, 12:06:13 PM
It’s hard to tell.

On the ground most on the right aren’t engaging in public virtue signaling. At work I’ve watched those on the right quietly listen to the leftists rant and not bother engaging them.

Why argue on social media with NPC’s? They will just follow their script and call you names.

So who knows how many will quietly go to the polls and go straight R in fear of the mob? Hopefully more than the propaganda press is reporting.

The problem is people are social creatures and don’t want to be ostracized or considered a bad person. Culturally the left owns the field. It’s not safe to be unapologetically on the right in our common culture.

How that effects private votes I don’t know.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on October 18, 2018, 12:10:38 PM
I'm sticking with my previous prediction for the house, probably more like R+3 in the senate.
My money would be on enough of a blue wave in the house for the Dems to take control there and cause some problems (endless investigations). The senate will stay about the same though.

No high level departures (Sessions or Kelly) until early 2019.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 18, 2018, 12:12:58 PM
I would perhaps count noses of those spouting off the leftist mantras, versus those choosing to remain quiet.  Once you have that ratio, that may provide you with some idea as to how they will vote. (And maybe a larger picture as to how the election will break, at least the local ones.)
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on October 18, 2018, 12:41:23 PM
It’s hard to tell.

On the ground most on the right aren’t engaging in public virtue signaling. At work I’ve watched those on the right quietly listen to the leftists rant and not bother engaging them.

Why argue on social media with NPC’s? They will just follow their script and call you names.

So who knows how many will quietly go to the polls and go straight R in fear of the mob? Hopefully more than the propaganda press is reporting.

The problem is people are social creatures and don’t want to be ostracized or considered a bad person. Culturally the left owns the field. It’s not safe to be unapologetically on the right in our common culture.

How that effects private votes I don’t know.
These days Corporate management and HR groups are liberal and/or the company policies are liberal.  If someone decided they don't like you, they can do a lot to screw you over or just get you fired even if you don't actually saying anything bad.  I think most people would prefer to keep their opinions private at least in a big office work environment.  
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 18, 2018, 12:59:10 PM
The major problem the D's have was that the only thing they had to do, THE ONLY THING, to flip the House, and perhaps the Senate, is

"Don't be crazy".

However, the closer we get to election day, the more the Batcrap is coming out.  They can only keep it buried fro so long...
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: brimic on October 18, 2018, 02:24:12 PM
The US looks like a larger version of what WI was back around 2011.
The left is going to lose, they will amplify their *expletive deleted*it flinging, and lose some more, continuing to small to no gains until they corral their jackasses and start to look like sane people again.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on October 18, 2018, 02:28:13 PM

However, the closer we get to election day, the more the Batcrap is coming out.  They can only keep it buried fro so long...

Much harder to keep it buried when freakin' senators and congresspeople are actually at the forefront and encouraging it. You can write off the lone "handmaid" or whoever that goes on a rampage. People like Maxine Waters trying to mainstream that stuff are a big part of their impending failure, IMO.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Angel Eyes on October 18, 2018, 02:30:41 PM
People like Maxine Waters trying to mainstream that stuff are a big part of their impending failure, IMO.

The question is: how many innocent folks will they hurt/kill as they spiral downward?



(ETA: looks like some on the Right are beginning to push back:  https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/Former-state-GOP-official-warns-Trump-protesters-13317874.php)
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: 230RN on October 18, 2018, 02:51:20 PM
Ron said, in part:

Quote
On the ground most on the right aren’t engaging in public virtue signaling. At work I’ve watched those on the right quietly listen to the leftists rant and not bother engaging them.

Why argue on social media with NPC’s? They will just follow their script and call you names.
...

Rings true to me.  My major concern is that the "red is inevitable" S+3 attitude will result in a lot of conservatives not voting.  In that sense, thank G-d for mail-in voting, but we'll see.

Frankly, a red swing to me will mean a total defeat of mainstream "news" outlets and maybe even some firing of MSM puppets.  We've had a de facto Ministry of Propaganda for far too long.  It would also be nice to think that many of the entertainment rodents will skulk back to their filthy nests.

Heh.  Talk about name-calling, huh?

Terry, 230RN

Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Angel Eyes on October 18, 2018, 02:55:27 PM
For what it's worth:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rush-limbaugh-predicts-gop-will-hold-house-make-gains-in-senate
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 18, 2018, 04:40:51 PM
The question is: how many innocent folks will they hurt/kill as they spiral downward?



(ETA: looks like some on the Right are beginning to push back:  https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/Former-state-GOP-official-warns-Trump-protesters-13317874.php)


Yep, it's only a matter of time before antifa *expletive deleted*s with the wrong (armed) person...
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Perd Hapley on October 18, 2018, 04:48:40 PM
For what it's worth:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/rush-limbaugh-predicts-gop-will-hold-house-make-gains-in-senate



Interesting. Isn't it pretty unusual for Limbaugh to call elections?
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: charby on October 18, 2018, 07:11:33 PM
GOP keeps Senate, +1
GOP keeps House, but only by 1 or 2 members.

Trump still president.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Chester32141 on October 18, 2018, 07:32:04 PM
Here's a Limbaugh transcript that makes a lot of sense …  [popcorn]

https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2018/10/16/the-ten-year-political-trend-doesnt-point-to-a-blue-wave/
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on October 22, 2018, 10:08:00 AM
Funny how polling is all over the board. Yesterday Fox News said the "blue wave" was in trouble, today they say the GOP is.  :laugh:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/early-voting-points-to-massive-turnout-warning-signs-for-gop

I think, as far as "voting stragglers", this is going to come down to a larger issue within a week of the election (to account for when much of early voting happens). Right now it looks like the "migrant army", depending on how fast they (and I read there is another one forming in Guatemala right now) get to the US border.

My belief is that even moderate progs, who are sympathetic to illegal aliens, have a problem with a large influx like this, especially when they do things like destroy and overwhelm barriers. These aren't people sneaking in, or begging to be let in. These are people demanding entrance. I think that's a turn off even to the moderate progs. While it certainly won't make them turn into Trumpites, it might sour them on the midterms. It will certainly energize more of the right.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on October 22, 2018, 11:12:41 AM
I honestly have no idea what the results will be as the polls are notoriously bad about predicting mid-term election turn-out.

/put analyst hat on

What I can tell, is that the Democrats seem to have really gotten their base motivated in the mid-term elections, which the Democrats have traditionally fared badly as their base tends to be less engaged.

HOWEVER, looking at minority polling and other members of the "base", the section of their base most motivated seems to be the extreme left (i.e. not the minorities, who make up another significant part) and that extreme left tends to be very clustered.

So, my view is that the Democrats are likely going to see a HUGE turnout... in elections there were going to win anyway and the close elections will break Republican, as the insane left has turned moderates away and increased interest of the Republican/Trump base. (Two related, but different groups.)

Effect will be further concentration of the left into their self-segregated cities, prompting further cries about how it was all a consequence of "jerrymandering." (Ignoring that fact that the VAST majority of the "problem" for Dems is their choice to pander to the concerns of city-dwellers to the detriment of everyone else.)

/analyst hat off

Back to cynical me- I'm expecting the Democrats are going to win, despite all the above and we'll suffer through 2 - 6 years of them supporting the bureaucracy in stymieing Trump's agenda.

I'm HOPING to be surprised, but this is a country that voted for Obama, TWICE.  

Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ron on October 22, 2018, 11:52:23 AM
The safe bet is Maks analysis.

We are a nation of NPC’s so my expectations are low.

A virtue signal vote against Trump and the Republicans makes sure you don’t lose any social status, ensuring you won’t be singled out amongst the herd. Moving with the herd keeps you safer.

This is especially important among women who tend to lean left.



Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on October 22, 2018, 06:34:01 PM
Elections are secret ballot.  No one knows how you voted unless you tell them.  Also, no ones know if you voted at all really. 
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ron on October 22, 2018, 06:49:45 PM
Elections are secret ballot.  No one knows how you voted unless you tell them.  Also, no ones know if you voted at all really. 

Hopefully all the virtue signaling isn’t backed up by action, going to the polls.

Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: French G. on October 23, 2018, 08:30:09 AM
I will bet that the Beto loss will be one of the widest margins in awhile. Perhaps another opportunity to see how polls and media propped up a lie.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on October 23, 2018, 09:48:40 AM
Hopefully all the virtue signaling isn’t backed up by action, going to the polls.


All the virtue signaling is part of the social media outreach that many of these campaign efforts pay for.  It is all designed to look like a grass roots effort, but most of it is not.  The huge number of people showing up to hear President Trump at the Ted Cruz rally means more to me. 
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on October 23, 2018, 10:37:32 AM
All the virtue signaling is part of the social media outreach that many of these campaign efforts pay for.  It is all designed to look like a grass roots effort, but most of it is not.  The huge number of people showing up to hear President Trump at the Ted Cruz rally means more to me. 

Yup. I was reading the Santa Barbara commie pinko rag (I have no idea why I keep doing that - it just spikes my blood pressure) a couple of weeks ago and they were talking about all the busloads of local commies going to Nevada to canvas for dem reps there.

Just like we keep hearing, "Hollywood is for Beto!" These people coming in from other states would likely not be happy with paid "grassroots" supporters coming in from out of state to canvas against their progressive candidates.

I do think this will continue to backfire as it did for whathisname in the south a while back. Nobody likes carpetbaggers.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on October 23, 2018, 10:50:17 AM
Yup. I was reading the Santa Barbara commie pinko rag (I have no idea why I keep doing that - it just spikes my blood pressure) a couple of weeks ago and they were talking about all the busloads of local commies going to Nevada to canvas for dem reps there.

Just like we keep hearing, "Hollywood is for Beto!" These people coming in from other states would likely not be happy with paid "grassroots" supporters coming in from out of state to canvas against their progressive candidates.

I do think this will continue to backfire as it did for whathisname in the south a while back. Nobody likes carpetbaggers.

Ossof.

Yet another useless piece of information that I'd rather not have in my head.



It's interesting- the media and hollywood both had a time during which their efforts could see results. They could put their thumb on the scales to tip the balance toward their preferred outcomes.

The reason that worked was because they weren't obvious about it. They were subtle and pretended to be neutral or, at most, slightly left of center.

They've been doing it for too long and are now doing it so openly that I'm fairly certain it harms their causes.

But they can't stop because they've never had anyone on the other side insult them so much and they cannot adjust. Trump has their number and they have far too much hubris to re-examine their own efforts.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: dogmush on October 23, 2018, 11:21:07 AM
Yup. I was reading the Santa Barbara commie pinko rag (I have no idea why I keep doing that - it just spikes my blood pressure) a couple of weeks ago and they were talking about all the busloads of local commies going to Nevada to canvas for dem reps there.

Just like we keep hearing, "Hollywood is for Beto!" These people coming in from other states would likely not be happy with paid "grassroots" supporters coming in from out of state to canvas against their progressive candidates.

I do think this will continue to backfire as it did for whathisname in the south a while back. Nobody likes carpetbaggers.


Wait.  So the Dems in CA are cool with trying to affect the outcome of other people's elections just because who gets elected might affect their state?

Спасибо, товарищ. Хорошо знать.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on October 23, 2018, 11:51:34 AM

Wait.  So the Dems in CA are cool with trying to affect the outcome of other people's elections just because who gets elected might affect their state?

Спасибо, товарищ. Хорошо знать.

Sure, you can argue that a Senator affects more than the state they represent in their votes on Federal matters.

You can also argue that Texans probably should have more of a say in who represents their state (whether Cruz or "Beto") than Californians or residents of any other states, given we're a Republic of confederated states and all. Just like Californians should have more say and influence in who represents their state on the federal level on matters that affect all states.

What's happening now is way too much like democracy and "majority population rules". Not even majority population. A loud minority of people with willing media to spread their message everywhere and influence perception. The perception now is that "beto" is who Texas wants, him being a rock star and all. I think at this point I'm willing to bet real money that Cruz will comfortably take it.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: KD5NRH on October 24, 2018, 01:07:41 PM
Personally, I like to see some bad news and discouraging poll numbers around this time, because I don't want any Conservatives thinking "we've got it in the bag, so Ican just skip voting, or not bother to remind grandma and take her to the polls."
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Pb on October 24, 2018, 02:12:17 PM
The sad thing is, even the Rep party holds the house are we going to get:

Pro gun laws?
Immigration restrictions?
Funding for the wall?
Cutting funding to Planned Parenthood?
A sane budget?
An Obamacare repeal?

 ;/  No.  No we won't.  Because the Republican party actually doesn't want any of these things.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 24, 2018, 02:18:08 PM
The sad thing is, even the Rep party holds the house are we going to get:

Pro gun laws?
Immigration restrictions?
Funding for the wall?
Cutting funding to Planned Parenthood?
A sane budget?
An Obamacare repeal?

 ;/  No.  No we won't.  Because the Republican party actually doesn't want any of these things.

I think we actually might.  McConnell has said he'd introduce Obamacare repeal. 
1.  We might get national reciprocity. 
2.  With these "Caravans" coming from Central America, we might actually get immigration reform and funding for a Border Wall.
3.  Maybe.
4.  Trump has already told his cabinet secretaries to cut their budgets by 5%.   It's a start.
5.  McConnell has already said he'd have another vote repealing Obamacare.

And with Trump leading (and winning), if they keep the House (and replace retiring RINO's with more conservative/libertarian R's) and increase their majority in Senate, then I would predict many of these will pass.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Pb on October 24, 2018, 02:28:52 PM
I wish I could believe you Amy.  But they have had a plenty of time to do any of those things.  And they didn't.   Not a single one.  :mad:
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 24, 2018, 02:49:15 PM
I wish I could believe you Amy.  But they have had a plenty of time to do any of those things.  And they didn't.   Not a single one.  :mad:

It took them time to jell behind/under Trump.  There were lots of NeverTrumpers in the R's for the first two years.  It's only been within the last year or so that the R's have grown a backbone.  Look at McConnell pushing through Trump's judges, and Lindsay Graham moving out form under McCain's shadow to show some spine.  Again, lots of RINOs/NeverTrumpers retiring.  McCain (who killed O-care repeal), is gone.  So IF the R's can hold the house, that stands a good chance of passing.

Just look at how all the R's ran from Trump right after the 2016 election to how many now are begging Trump to come campaign/hold a rally for them in the midterms.

Trump has been subject to every slur, innuendo, rumour, and even a bogus investigation and he not only has not been deterred he has also moved to implement and keep all his promises. 

And while he hasn't done what you have listed, yet.  He'd been busy putting Federalist Society judges on benches all across the country, and two on the Supreme Court.

And keep in mind, with some of those things (Immigration Reform, Funding for the Wall will require at least 60 votes in the Senate to pass), so only if the D's lose and lose badly on 6 Nov will we see those things.  Unless the R's can gain 10 seats in Senate.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on October 24, 2018, 03:30:16 PM
If Dems lose badly, they might get a few Dems to vote for some new legislation.  Republicans like Jeff Flake are already out come next year.  His replacement is running for election. 

Remember Trump has already accomplished more than most Presidents in the first two years.  Just about any other choice for President would have done very little if anything in the political climate of the last two years. 

I heard Victor Davis Hanson mention that Trump acts crazy and gets all the attention while his appointees accomplish a lot behind the scenes without being noticed and tell everyone that if you don't deal with them, you have to deal with Trump.  Past Presidents have done the opposite. 
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: just Warren on October 24, 2018, 03:37:18 PM
A couple of canvassers for the lefty opponent to the incumbent just came by.

Told them I was voting for her. They marked that down on their clipboard.

narrator He was, in fact, not voting for her. /narrator

Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on October 24, 2018, 09:54:05 PM
My boss, another coworker, and myself went over and voted early today.  If anyone is voting democrat in our location, they are keeping it quiet.  I am confident, but not absolutely confident.  We will see what happens. 

First step is keep R's in the majority.  I know what the Dems will try to do.  I hope the R's will do the things I want.  I think R's in the majority is a better bet right now.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 25, 2018, 01:57:42 PM
The sad thing is, even the Rep party holds the house are we going to get:

Pro gun laws?
Immigration restrictions?
Funding for the wall?
Cutting funding to Planned Parenthood?
A sane budget?
An Obamacare repeal?

 ;/  No.  No we won't.  Because the Republican party actually doesn't want any of these things.

I can also guarantee that we will get none of those if we put D's in charge in either chamber...
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on October 25, 2018, 02:10:05 PM
Speaking of Obamacare repeal... What the heck is this?
Quote from: Donald Trump https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1053008701026693122
All Republicans support people with pre-existing conditions, and if they don’t, they will after I speak to them. I am in total support. Also, Democrats will destroy your Medicare, and I will keep it healthy and well!
Quote from: Donald Trump https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1055077740792160256
Republicans will totally protect people with Pre-Existing Conditions, Democrats will not! Vote Republican.
I've seen some other GOP politicians (Scott Walker for sure, and I think Rick Scott) saying the same things now.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: BobR on October 25, 2018, 02:13:43 PM
A couple of canvassers for the lefty opponent to the incumbent just came by.

Told them I was voting for her. They marked that down on their clipboard.

narrator He was, in fact, not voting for her. /narrator



I tell whoever comes to the door I am voting for them, then tell them to get off my porch!!! :)

bob
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: AJ Dual on October 25, 2018, 02:27:40 PM
A couple of canvassers for the lefty opponent to the incumbent just came by.

Told them I was voting for her. They marked that down on their clipboard.

narrator He was, in fact, not voting for her. /narrator



LOL, anyone else hear that in Morgan Freeman's voice?
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: just Warren on October 25, 2018, 02:48:01 PM
I told them that I couldn't open the door because of my cats, so they left a circular for her on my mat and when I finally got a chance to get to it I saw that it was all in Spanish.

It would have been one thing if it was a front and back deal with English on one side and Espanol on the other but nope, all Spanish. Though I'm not in favor of people who are not fluent enough in English to be voting (as how interested are they really in this country?). I do get that they can, and that  certain politicians are going to do outreach to them.

Now thanks to Duolingo I can parse some Spanish but they didn't know that. So that there is a level of competence that a person can take pride in!
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Pb on October 25, 2018, 04:30:35 PM
Speaking of Obamacare repeal... What the heck is this?I've seen some other GOP politicians (Scott Walker for sure, and I think Rick Scott) saying the same things now.


Requiring companies to cover "pre-existing conditions" is one of the things that makes obamacare so obsencely expensive... Dumb move Trump.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: dogmush on October 25, 2018, 04:45:09 PM
Requiring companies to cover "pre-existing conditions" is one of the things that makes obamacare so obsencely expensive... Dumb move Trump.

Not really a dumb move.  Trump's not really trying to make it cheaper, he's looking to say he rolled it back to the people that don't like it.

Even among the folks against Obamacare, not letting little Suzie die of Leukemia just because she already had it is one of the facets that a lot of people don't mind too much.  So he get's to throw a bone across the aisle to try and get some D votes, all he has to do is keep the part of Obamacare that is most liked by lots of folks, and if prices drop a little bit* he can claim credit, and if they don't he can blame the D's for making him compromise on whatever other thing he has to give them.  And so he'll look good to a whole bunch of his base, and some of the middle fence sitters.


*Prices don't even have to drop to the Pre-Obamacare levels.  By the time whatever "repeal" goes through the new prices will be 5 or 6 years old, and so if they go down to "just" 120% of what they were in 2009, that will be a big savings he can tout.  The kind of folks that are likely to look at the Pre-ACA costs, and figure out that it's still more expensive aren't going to vote for whomever the Democratic Primary vomits out in 2020 anyway.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on October 25, 2018, 05:38:55 PM
If they make it private, there are a hundred ways to set it up.  Or just dump them in Medicare?  We will see. 

What Trump says and what actual legislation gets passed may not be quite the same thing.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 26, 2018, 11:36:07 AM
From the same fine folks that said Hillary was a 90% lock back in 2016...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on October 29, 2018, 10:59:46 AM
From the same fine folks that said Hillary was a 90% lock back in 2016...
Did they rewrite their prediction or something?

Quote from: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
Hillary Clinton
71.4%
Donald Trump
28.6%
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on October 29, 2018, 11:13:39 AM
Sorry 80%. 

https://www.aol.com/article/2016/06/29/nate-silver-hillary-clinton-has-a-near-80-percent-chance-of-win/21421192/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8jlymRjiO8
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on October 29, 2018, 11:14:57 AM
From the same fine folks that said Hillary was a 90% lock back in 2016...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/


Interesting. I just voted for my last time in CA. Regionally, and even nationally (Hi NPR!) Devin Nunes is shown to be in serious trouble. This poll has him at a 19 in 20, which I believe is more correct than most everything else I've been hearing from people who apparently know nothing of the politics around here. I'm curious about their methodology.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: freakazoid on October 29, 2018, 07:53:09 PM
LOL, anyone else hear that in Morgan Freeman's voice?

I went with Nick Offerman. He did "the narrator" in that youtube video that took place in a western saloon.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RoadKingLarry on October 29, 2018, 10:22:43 PM
Man, it's a tough call.
I haven't seen anything on the national level but here in the reddest of red states, Oklahoma, we have some interesting statistics.
Voter registration stats show that of people changing their party of registration 50% Republican, 26% to Democrat and the rest split between independent and Libertarian.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MillCreek on October 29, 2018, 10:32:45 PM
In our state election, I was interested to see myself voting for all Republicans for my three state representatives.  I am an independent, and I cross party lines to vote for the best candidate.  This time, all three who best represented my interests and my locality were Republicans.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on October 31, 2018, 10:44:46 AM
While it's beginning to look like the Ds may take the house by a seat or two, I really, really want them to lose now only to break Pelosi. People call Trump self-absorbed, self-important and arrogant? Man, she's got him beat by a mile.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-makes-a-bold-prediction-democrats-will-w
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: TommyGunn on October 31, 2018, 10:49:31 AM
While it's beginning to look like the Ds may take the house by a seat or two, I really, really want them to lose now only to break Pelosi. People call Trump self-absorbed, self-important and arrogant? Man, she's got him beat by a mile.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-makes-a-bold-prediction-democrats-will-w
???  Too close to call .... could go either way.    Pelosi is blabbing to shore up demorat base.   That could  be interpreted to mean they're worried.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on October 31, 2018, 11:17:29 AM
I always find the polls & expectations game kind of funny. Some people say that one side is over-inflating their polls to tamp down enthusiasm on the other side. Other people say that their race is closer than it actually is to motivate people to vote. Everyone seems to want to be confident they are going to win but still be the underdog.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ronna-mcdaniel-republican-midterm-polling/
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on October 31, 2018, 02:47:18 PM
I always find the polls & expectations game kind of funny. Some people say that one side is over-inflating their polls to tamp down enthusiasm on the other side. Other people say that their race is closer than it actually is to motivate people to vote. Everyone seems to want to be confident they are going to win but still be the underdog.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ronna-mcdaniel-republican-midterm-polling/

I have seen fundraising emails from Republicans making it appear a loss is imminent, they just need my money to help them pull out a win.  I am getting tired of that.

Rush mentioned a little while ago that almost no one predicts midterm elections correctly.  I don't think anyone knows.  I just won't worry about it at this point.  I have already voted.  Everyone I know has voted.  Nothing to do but wait. 
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: gunsmith on November 01, 2018, 12:46:41 AM
i used to be able to predict elections, i have been wrong and wrong and wrong recently.
on the way to the cafe/wifi i sincerely prayed for a red tsunami
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Pb on November 01, 2018, 09:05:40 AM
I've proven, I can't predict anything to do with elections.  Gloriously, gloriously wrong, in the case of the Trump election!  I remember going to bed all depressed the night before... my wife woke up up the next day with "Who do you think you won the election?"  "Hillary."  "No, Trump."

WHAT!!!!!   =D

Trumps a jerk with no principles, but as a president he is above average, and that is saying something.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 04, 2018, 02:10:18 PM
This is more about the gubernatorial races, but I was somewhat shocked to see the Che wannabe ahead in polls in Florida. While I wouldn't be shocked to see a dem win the governor's race in that state, I will be shocked if someone that far left wins.

He actually seems farther left than Gavin Newsom, who, sadly, looks to be a lock in CA. I am leaving none too soon.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RoadKingLarry on November 04, 2018, 02:56:54 PM
The early voting turn out here has been very strong

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/oklahoma/articles/2018-11-02/early-oklahoma-voting-numbers-suggest-turnout-increase (https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/oklahoma/articles/2018-11-02/early-oklahoma-voting-numbers-suggest-turnout-increase)

What I've seen from other states looks to be similar with many reporting record or near record registrations and turn out.

Looks like something is going on, too soon to tell which way the tree is gonna fall.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on November 05, 2018, 01:48:56 PM
Now is the time to get on the record and earn your prognosticator credentials.

I'm not familiar with this outfit but they have a decent breakdown
Quote from: http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-picks-for-2018/
D +34 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +10 in governorships
The RINO analysis here is interesting, and something a lot of people probably don't want to hear. It also could be proven wrong...
Quote from: https://www.nationalreview.com/2018/11/midterm-elections-republicans-tainted-by-rinos/
D +32 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +9 in governorships

I'm sticking with my previous prediction, which isn't far from the above (slightly smaller D gain in the house but still enough for a majority).
I will also add a final prediction: The Hearing Protection Act is done for.  :'(
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 05, 2018, 02:31:52 PM
I will also add a final prediction: The Hearing Protection Act is done for.  :'(

I'm severely disappointed on the gun rights front. It all went the way of health care reform - to the back burner. Now it will likely be too late for any meaningful legislation to get past gridlock. Even if hope against hope the Rs keep a majority, they don't seem as interested in it as they did pre-NOV 2018 and a few months into Trump's term. Imagine that.

I suppose there are always EOs for some minor stuff, but I'm not crazy about EOs as they all too often follow the Harry Reid strategy.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RocketMan on November 05, 2018, 03:56:12 PM
I'm thinking Dems take the house.  I have no clue as to the margin, but I suspect they will have a decent majority that will make it impossible to flip enough squishy Dems to get any of The Stupid Party's legislation acted on.  They may also take the Senate by one or two seats.  Governorships, I have no clue.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: BobR on November 05, 2018, 04:15:23 PM
I have no way of figuring this one out. A lot of new voters that have bought into the "Hate Trump" mindset who have no idea of the real issues in this election. They are answering the rally cry to resist and vote anything but Trump or anything/anyone he supports.

I hope the conservative leaning independents get out to vote and vote for something other than a losing 3rd party candidate. I also hope the true conservatives who back Trump and his policies get out to vote because this election is going to come down to sheer numbers with everything being polled out as so close. I have started to believe polls don't mean very much, too many people lie to the pollsters about who they are supporting (if conservative) and it skews everything.

I am somewhat optimistic and think the Rs will hold the Senate with a few gains and possibly hold the House by a very thin margin.

bob
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RoadKingLarry on November 05, 2018, 09:25:25 PM
I'm kind of hoping for a roar from the conservative silent majority.


Hay, a guy can dream can't he?

And come on, the same pollsters that are telling us the dems are gonna have their blue wave are the same pollsters that told us Hillary was a lock.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: French G. on November 05, 2018, 10:23:05 PM
If the Dems win the house it is a gift to trump 2020 or his survivors if they manage to get him.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on November 06, 2018, 08:16:47 AM
If the Dems win the house it is a gift to trump 2020 or his survivors if they manage to get him.
You're not alone in that assessment
Quote from: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/midterm-elections-voting-choices-democrat-republican/
there are lots of people in Trump World who want Trump to run against the Democratic Congress in 2020. So if you’re someone wholly invested in Trump’s personal political advantages, you could take a strategic flier and not vote Republican tomorrow.
But I doubt many people are confident enough in such a strategy to actually vote for it.

The big question is turnout. So much of the polling depends on accurate analysis of 'likely voters'. Early voting is already off the charts but even that can be interpreted different ways.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on November 06, 2018, 09:07:33 AM
The big question is turnout. So much of the polling depends on accurate analysis of 'likely voters'. Early voting is already off the charts but even that can be interpreted different ways.

Well, in my (Democrat leaning) precinct, I went in and voted this morning and then got back in the car to hear on the radio "we are hearing reports of longer than expected lines at polling places this morning, so plan accordingly."

I have to admit, the line was much longer at my polling place. Instead of no one being there, there was one person in line in front of me. I can't even quantify how large a percentage change that is!
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on November 06, 2018, 09:18:45 AM
I'm severely disappointed on the gun rights front. It all went the way of health care reform - to the back burner. Now it will likely be too late for any meaningful legislation to get past gridlock. Even if hope against hope the Rs keep a majority, they don't seem as interested in it as they did pre-NOV 2018 and a few months into Trump's term. Imagine that.

I suppose there are always EOs for some minor stuff, but I'm not crazy about EOs as they all too often follow the Harry Reid strategy.
Did you really expect gun rights legislation passed in the first two years?  I think that was a bunch of wishful thinking.  Even if Trump would sign it, I think either Ryan or McConnell were against it.  I would have liked to see more effort in reducing the processing time in the ATF and maybe some executive level changes on imports, but I am happy with what was done on other issues.

Trump still hasn't even gotten all his appointments approved.  I think the high expectations is why midterm elections generally go against the party with the President in office. 
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 06, 2018, 09:31:59 AM
Did you really expect gun rights legislation passed in the first two years?  I think that was a bunch of wishful thinking.  Even if Trump would sign it, I think either Ryan or McConnell were against it.  I would have liked to see more effort in reducing the processing time in the ATF and maybe some executive level changes on imports, but I am happy with what was done on other issues.

Trump still hasn't even gotten all his appointments approved.  I think the high expectations is why midterm elections generally go against the party with the President in office. 

If not in the first two years with a majority, then when? While I am also happy with much of what Trump has done, and recognize that it is stuff that affects many more Americans than gun owners, that's kinda the point.

We gun owners are not as important in the scheme of things as we think we are. If gun rights legislation can't get passed when the administration and majority are "riding high", the probability of anything getting done drops like a 1920s stock market. Unless by some miracle, R's get even more seats in the house and senate today, significant pro-gun legislation is likely done for the next two years. We might be able to hold back anti-gun legislation, but even that's not guaranteed since Trump had no problems with bump stock bans after Vegas.

With a D majority, Trump will be spending all his time in the next two years trying to save his economic agenda, which is probably the smart use of resources. Then he might take on health care again. Gun stuff will be well down the list.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: TommyGunn on November 06, 2018, 11:14:48 AM
Arrived to vote this morning at @ 7:15am.   Line was out the door 75 feet!   Took 45 minutes to get through!
I have NEVER  seen so many in line voting,  not even during a presidential election!
Good or bad?   Where I live it's GOOD!
But I hear the democrats are also pretty charged up.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ron on November 06, 2018, 12:32:38 PM
Line was long at my polling station also.

Normally I’d be pleased but my county is drifting left in pussy hat virtue signaling sjw ridiculousness.

Hope springs eternal.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: TechMan on November 06, 2018, 01:59:31 PM
Arrived 7:30 a.m. (EST) at my polling place and there was no line but a constant flow of people coming and going.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RocketMan on November 06, 2018, 02:28:10 PM
My wife and I voted during the lunch our at our local polling place.  There were a few folks there voting, but no line.
Precinct worker said things had been busier than usual, but that doesn't say much about trends as the county is about 50-50 Dem - Rep.  It's hard to say in this area if one group is more energized about this election than the other.
For judicial elections there were very few Democrats running.  Most positions were for unopposed Republicans.  There was an odd Libertarian for one position.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Angel Eyes on November 06, 2018, 02:32:39 PM
Voted absentee.  Waiting in line is for suckers.

Related:

https://www.westernjournal.com/wayne-allyn-root-vegas-oddsmaker-predicts-gop-upset/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=WJBreaking&utm_campaign=breaking&utm_content=western-journal
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: TommyGunn on November 06, 2018, 02:40:29 PM
Voted absentee.  Waiting in line is for suckers.

Related:

https://www.westernjournal.com/wayne-allyn-root-vegas-oddsmaker-predicts-gop-upset/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=WJBreaking&utm_campaign=breaking&utm_content=western-journal


You're supposed to vote for the republican or democrat, not for the absentee.   :lol: ;/   :rofl: 
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Angel Eyes on November 06, 2018, 02:41:39 PM
You're supposed to vote for the republican or democrat, not for the absentee.   :lol: ;/   :rofl: 

I like absentee politicians.  When they're absent, they're not doing any harm.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RoadKingLarry on November 06, 2018, 02:44:14 PM
Voted absentee.  Waiting in line is for suckers.

Related:

https://www.westernjournal.com/wayne-allyn-root-vegas-oddsmaker-predicts-gop-upset/?utm_source=Email&utm_medium=WJBreaking&utm_campaign=breaking&utm_content=western-journal


I hope he is right.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Perd Hapley on November 06, 2018, 02:53:44 PM
In the thick of it. For once, I get to work in a nice part of town.

Some stupid lady in yoga pants is talking to her kid on speakerphone, as everyone around her is filling out ballots. :facepalm:
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on November 06, 2018, 03:02:31 PM
I hope he is right.
I think his predictions involve a bit too much hope... =|
Quote from: https://townhall.com/columnists/wayneallynroot/2012/10/12/las-vegas-oddsmaker-explains-why-he-predicts-romney-landslide-n747380
Romney will win many states that went to Obama in 2008. I’m predicting Romney victories in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Indiana. I predict a Romney victory by 100 to 120 electoral votes.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Brad Johnson on November 06, 2018, 03:04:27 PM
Early voting, FTW. None of this taking off work to stand in line business. I go when it's convenient for me.

Brad
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on November 06, 2018, 03:08:00 PM
Early voting, FTW. None of this taking off work to stand in line business. I go when it's convenient for me.

Brad
Stand.. in.. line?

I haven't had to do that in the midterms since....

Oh, wait. I've NEVER had to do that for the midterms. This year was no exception.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on November 06, 2018, 04:33:07 PM
Early voting, FTW. None of this taking off work to stand in line business. I go when it's convenient for me.

Brad
Hell, the subject of early voting came up after lunch and my boss said "Let's go".  Three of us went and voted early the first week.  It was about 1:30 PM and there was a small line.  Busy for the first week of early voting.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Brad Johnson on November 06, 2018, 04:49:48 PM
We had record turnout for early voting, and not just by a little. Not sure how to interpret that.

Brad
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: just Warren on November 06, 2018, 05:56:13 PM
Very short line. Looks like we got rid of the electronic vote machines.

I'm tall and the shelf in the booth was low so I actually had a twinge of back pain after filling out all those circles.

Damn Trump's America!
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 06, 2018, 06:14:50 PM
Very short line. Looks like we got rid of the electronic vote machines.

I'm tall and the shelf in the booth was low so I actually had a twinge of back pain after filling out all those circles.

Damn Trump's America!

Interesting that the in-person ballots are different in CA from mail-in. My mail-in has me draw a line to the name of the candidate I choose. The last time I filled in bubbles was probably four years ago.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: grampster on November 06, 2018, 06:24:05 PM
We've been getting absentee ballots for many years.  All you have to do to get one is to be over 65, unable to get to the polling place due to illness or disability, or swear you'll be out of town on election day.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: cordex on November 06, 2018, 08:33:56 PM
I went half an hour before the polls opened and there were 20 people in front of me. Hundreds in line when I left. Took my wife an over an hour when she went. The lot was completely packed as I was coming home from work today.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: gunsmith on November 06, 2018, 10:01:33 PM
i am a resident of a very rural area, i get a mail ballot two weeks early.
i am very concerned.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on November 06, 2018, 10:55:32 PM
There was an odd Libertarian for one position.

Pretty sure there isn't any other kind.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Hawkmoon on November 06, 2018, 11:39:30 PM
Fox News has called the Senate for the Republicans. As for the House ...

As of 11:38 p.m. Fox is showing it 155 for the Rs and 154 for the Ds ... but the Ds have flipped 18 seats to the Rs 0 (as in "zero")

https://www.foxnews.com/midterms-2018/house
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Hawkmoon on November 07, 2018, 12:01:49 AM
Fox just called the Florida Senate race for Scott, giving the Rs 52 seats. Arizona and Montana still open. Montana looks like a definite win for Tester (dang it), Arizona still too close to call but McSally is slightly ahead.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 07, 2018, 12:16:06 AM
Arizona still too close to call but McSally is slightly ahead.

I hope McSally gets it. Her opponent puts Berkeley,CA candidates to shame. What will be interesting if McSally squeaks in a victory is the reaction of progs, given that the green candidate in AZ got over 30,000 votes. Given the political leanings of greens, if that candidate were not in the race, the D would likely have won.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: KD5NRH on November 07, 2018, 01:11:40 AM
I hope McSally gets it. Her opponent puts Berkeley,CA candidates to shame. What will be interesting if McSally squeaks in a victory is the reaction of progs, given that the green candidate in AZ got over 30,000 votes. Given the political leanings of greens, if that candidate were not in the race, the D would likely have won.

Good point; which of us will be running as Greens in the next close election?
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RocketMan on November 07, 2018, 05:49:45 AM
And there you have it, the Dems had their blue wave, although it wasn't as big as they had hoped.  The Dems took the House, +34.  The Reps kept the Senate, actually gaining three seats.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on November 07, 2018, 06:11:09 AM
And there you have it, the Dems had their blue wave, although it wasn't as big as they had hoped.  The Dems took the House, +34.  The Reps kept the Senate, actually gaining three seats.

If those numbers hold up, that's right in line with the historical average loss for a president's first midterm...


Making Trump a completely normal President. After 2 years of constant demonization.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: brimic on November 07, 2018, 08:46:34 AM
So the dems control the house now... does that mean we finally get the death camps that they promised?
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Pb on November 07, 2018, 08:50:52 AM
I would say now that will get no illegal immigration control, no wall, and no pro-gun legislation... but who would I be kidding?  The vile Republican Party would have never given us any of those things anyway.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 07, 2018, 08:58:29 AM
My initial thoughts:

The Senate now has enough votes to go to town on judicial nominees without having to worry about any of their own "Flaking out". That is, given that the "Lyndsey Graham effect" continues.

If Pelosi becomes speaker, and Waters heads the financial services committee, the nutzo soundbites and ideas they will create should lock the house into R hands in 2020. Waters is talking about "destroying" Wall Street and forcing banks to give out the same kinds of home loans to everyone with their hands out that caused the last crisis.

I was wondering if celebrities learned their lessons on telling people how to vote, specifically regarding the Tennessee and Texas examples. Then I woke up this morning to "Beto for President!", so I guess not.

From now on, whenever I hear the phrase, "Popular senate vote" out of someone's piehole in anything other than derision, I will immediately ignore anything they say on anything.

There may still be some hope on immigration depending on how things like the "caravan" play out. Health care is toast for now, and I fully expect my premiums to double before 2020. Gun legislation is also toast on the Federal level. At least anti-gun legislation is also (hopefully) toast as well. As I mentioned elsewhere, it sure would have been nice to get some pro-gun legislation through while the majority held - at least hearing protection or national reciprocity, but oh well.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ron on November 07, 2018, 09:06:20 AM
Hopefully Trump and his team have a solid long game.

All those retiring R’s were part of the swamp draining. They were always a big part of the problem.

Would have been nice to hold the house but having the Democrats display their craziness and ignorance while in power for the next two years could bring in a wave of MAGA men and women in ‘20

Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on November 07, 2018, 09:06:48 AM
Well that went pretty much how it was predicted to, polsters did an OK job.
https://www.weeklystandard.com/david-byler/why-you-should-trust-the-polls
The house will be pain in Trumps butt, but his legislative agenda was pretty much done for already (sad!) and the Senate was already doing OK with judicial confirmations. That will get a little smoother now.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: AJ Dual on November 07, 2018, 02:38:23 PM
I am deeply disappointed about Walker’s loss. I think it was a combination of things.  Much like the national mid-term flip, there’s been only one WI governor since WWII who managed to keep his seat same party as the first term POTUS. So Walker had that trend working against him.  Evers probably got some coattails from Tammy Baldwin’s Senate re-election.  Several Wisconsin counties got (worthless advisory non-binding) marijuana referendums on their ballots. I’m guessing that it was a coordinated effort knowing that it would help with Leftist/Democrat leaning turnout.  And at the end of the day, Wisconsin still tends to just be rather “purple” and fickle.  

At least WI had no upsets or surprises that went against the GOP in the state legislative races, or our WI Congressional seats in D.C.  Randy Bryce, the ultra-lefty union iron worker who’s been gunning for Paul Ryan’s seat was handily defeated. And what was probably the worst leftist smear campaign in the state to defeat Dale Kooyenga failed.

As WI Education superintendent, Tony Evers is a nobody, a cipher, and rather lazy. He is awkward and goofy in terms of appearance and presentation. So he does not have good optics working for him at all. (Imagine a skinny Bernie Sanders with a better haircut, and no charisma…)  His direction and initiatives will be coming largely from whatever busybodies infest his administration.  Evers will be mostly a lame duck from the get-go as the GOP held onto the WI Assembly and Senate with decent margins. So nothing major legislatively will be coming from him or the Democrats. However, he will be able to force some significant compromises every two years as WI is constitutionally obligated to pass a budget, and the WI governor has got a fair amount of power with the line-item veto. Which is in contrast to the relationship POTUS and COTUS have federally, where POTUS does not have line-item veto, and COTUS does not have to create or pass a budget, they can just keep passing continuing funding resolutions indefinitely.

Overall though, the “blue wave” definitely failed to materialize. As noted by others, the GOP losses in the House last night are on the lower end of averages for such midterm election turnover. The wind was at the Democrats backs with the normal historical midterm momentum, which was then supposed to be turbocharged by the Resistance and Trump Derangement Syndrome. By that standard it was a big fizzle. Mainly the Democrats have merely avoided destruction, or the fracture of the party into two separate parties, one hard left, the other moderate. And all the other fallout that failing to gain back anything, or that a red wave would have caused for them.

From what I’ve overheard anecdotally from Democrats around me at work, they’re mostly disappointed in Beto’s loss in TX and Gillum’s loss in FL. They’re not exited or jubilant about Evers or WI at all.

 

Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Angel Eyes on November 07, 2018, 03:18:06 PM
The markets seem happy.  Dow is up over 500 points at this writing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/stock-futures-open-flat-as-investors-await-midterm-elections-results.html

Happy that Republicans still hold the Senate?  Or they like Trump's overtures of bipartisanship?
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: brimic on November 07, 2018, 03:29:20 PM
I am deeply disappointed about Walker’s loss. I think it was a combination of things.  Much like the national mid-term flip, there’s been only one WI governor since WWII who managed to keep his seat same party as the first term POTUS. So Walker had that trend working against him.  Evers probably got some coattails from Tammy Baldwin’s Senate re-election.  Several Wisconsin counties got (worthless advisory non-binding) marijuana referendums on their ballots. I’m guessing that it was a coordinated effort knowing that it would help with Leftist/Democrat leaning turnout.  And at the end of the day, Wisconsin still tends to just be rather “purple” and fickle.  

At least WI had no upsets or surprises that went against the GOP in the state legislative races, or our WI Congressional seats in D.C.  Randy Bryce, the ultra-lefty union iron worker who’s been gunning for Paul Ryan’s seat was handily defeated. And what was probably the worst leftist smear campaign in the state to defeat Dale Kooyenga failed.

As WI Education superintendent, Tony Evers is a nobody, a cipher, and rather lazy. He is awkward and goofy in terms of appearance and presentation. So he does not have good optics working for him at all. (Imagine a skinny Bernie Sanders with a better haircut, and no charisma…)  His direction and initiatives will be coming largely from whatever busybodies infest his administration.  Evers will be mostly a lame duck from the get-go as the GOP held onto the WI Assembly and Senate with decent margins. So nothing major legislatively will be coming from him or the Democrats. However, he will be able to force some significant compromises every two years as WI is constitutionally obligated to pass a budget, and the WI governor has got a fair amount of power with the line-item veto. Which is in contrast to the relationship POTUS and COTUS have federally, where POTUS does not have line-item veto, and COTUS does not have to create or pass a budget, they can just keep passing continuing funding resolutions indefinitely.

Overall though, the “blue wave” definitely failed to materialize. As noted by others, the GOP losses in the House last night are on the lower end of averages for such midterm election turnover. The wind was at the Democrats backs with the normal historical midterm momentum, which was then supposed to be turbocharged by the Resistance and Trump Derangement Syndrome. By that standard it was a big fizzle. Mainly the Democrats have merely avoided destruction, or the fracture of the party into two separate parties, one hard left, the other moderate. And all the other fallout that failing to gain back anything, or that a red wave would have caused for them.

From what I’ve overheard anecdotally from Democrats around me at work, they’re mostly disappointed in Beto’s loss in TX and Gillum’s loss in FL. They’re not exited or jubilant about Evers or WI at all.

 



Pretty much, exactly.
With the Rs holding the state senate and assembly, Evers is going to be kept on a tight leash, plus he is no where near as intelligent and underhanded as Doyle was, so he isn't going to cause much harm. At worst, he's a placeholder until the next election, at best he'll look like a buffoon who has obviously been peter principled out of his league.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RocketMan on November 07, 2018, 05:25:21 PM
Would have been nice to hold the house but having the Democrats display their craziness and ignorance while in power for the next two years could bring in a wave of MAGA men and women in ‘20.

Their craziness has been on full display for two years already.  I doubt another two years on display will change anything.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: French G. on November 07, 2018, 06:46:12 PM
The markets seem happy.  Dow is up over 500 points at this writing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/stock-futures-open-flat-as-investors-await-midterm-elections-results.html

Happy that Republicans still hold the Senate?  Or they like Trump's overtures of bipartisanship?


The markets like gridlock and certainty. Nothing major bad going to happen for two years.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Hawkmoon on November 07, 2018, 07:20:33 PM

From now on, whenever I hear the phrase, "Popular senate vote" out of someone's piehole in anything other than derision, I will immediately ignore anything they say on anything.


Someone should inform them that they got popular vote for senators in 1913. https://www.usconstitution.net/xconst_Am17.html
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 07, 2018, 08:52:05 PM
Well anyways, it appears "white women" are at fault for the lack of a blue tsunami. I guess that's okay, because it gives us white men a break for a while from everything being our fault.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Hawkmoon on November 07, 2018, 09:34:00 PM
Stay tuned on Arizona. Apparently it's still too close to call, and may not be resolved until December -- and that's only if whichever side is declared the loser doesn't take it to court. I'm still hoping McSally pulls it out, not just because she's a Republican but also because she has some solid credentials and experience, and the D is a space cadet.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on November 08, 2018, 07:00:30 AM
Stay tuned on Arizona. Apparently it's still too close to call, and may not be resolved until December -- and that's only if whichever side is declared the loser doesn't take it to court. I'm still hoping McSally pulls it out, not just because she's a Republican but also because she has some solid credentials and experience, and the D is a space cadet.

McSally has a 19k vote lead.  Not sure how many absentee ballots need to be counted.  Hopefully Sinema will concede and go back to playing "The Dirty Librarian" in pron movies.  (At least that was my first thought the first time I saw a picture of her in those glasses....)
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on November 08, 2018, 09:53:29 AM
Their craziness has been on full display for two years already.  I doubt another two years on display will change anything.
I was thinking the same thing.  However, I heard a few points yesterday that might be relevant.

1.  While turnout was big for a midterm, it didn't rise to the same turnout for a Presidential election.  Not sure if that is good or bad, but it does leave room for a different outcome.

2.  Paul Ryan and the House Republican leadership were never very helpful to Trump.  Ryan most definitely was not.  The Senate did work with Trump especially on judicial appointments.  It certainly appears that they candidates that worked with the White House and sought Trump's support in their election did okay.  Those that didn't work with Trump, did not do as well.  Just a generalization, but something to consider.

3.  Republicans don't have a majority in all of Congress anymore.  It will be interesting to see how Trump and Republicans use that.  It will also be interesting to see if Democrats try to continue their "Attack Trump" plan or if they try to appear as statesmen and set themselves up better for 2020. 

Lots of things can happen in 2 years.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on November 08, 2018, 10:04:53 AM
Well anyways, it appears "white women" are at fault for the lack of a blue tsunami. I guess that's okay, because it gives us white men a break for a while from everything being our fault.

This is an interesting... tactic.

They've been demonizing white men for a very long time, and have driven up their voting percentage for Republicans.

Seeing how well that tactic worked, they have moved on to white women, too... "WHY WON'T YOU RUBES JUST DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD AND DIE OFF ALREADY!"

This seems sure to turn out well for Democrats.


They'll also start complaining about white people voting like an identity group very shortly and scream about how Republicans are dividing the country by race.

Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ron on November 08, 2018, 10:18:09 AM
The Dems have nearly half of white women voting for them pretty regularly already don’t they?

How many more are they going to pick up through public shaming?

I cannot tell you how many times I’ve heard white women complaining about white males and how we are the big problem in America.

Clown world, I’m in it.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: DittoHead on November 08, 2018, 12:21:28 PM
McSally has a 19k vote lead.  Not sure how many absentee ballots need to be counted. 
Gotta watch out for those absentee ballots that show up late...
Quote from: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/06/milwaukee-county-has-more-than-50-000-uncounted-absentee-ballots/1916187002/
Evers, the state schools chief, eventually edged Walker by about 29,000 votes.

Milwaukee County Clerk George Chistenson said his office received about 46,000 early and absentee ballots from the city long after all other votes had been counted in the county. The city waited to tally those votes until it finished counting other ballots.

From those late ballots, Evers received 38,674 votes, or 84% of the total, and Walker 7,181.

[tinfoil]
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Perd Hapley on November 08, 2018, 01:09:30 PM
And there you have it, the Dems had their blue wave, although it wasn't as big as they had hoped.  The Dems took the House, +34.  The Reps kept the Senate, actually gaining three seats.


Even some in the legacy media have said there was no blue wave.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RocketMan on November 09, 2018, 05:47:16 AM
McSally has a 19k vote lead.  Not sure how many absentee ballots need to be counted.  Hopefully Sinema will concede and go back to playing "The Dirty Librarian" in pron movies.  (At least that was my first thought the first time I saw a picture of her in those glasses....)

McSally is now down by 9600 votes with 99.7% of the precincts tallied.  Unless recounts or lawsuits prolong things, she's toast.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 09, 2018, 09:23:08 AM
Bummer if McSally loses.

In other news, apparently Broward County, FL is just gonna keep finding ballots and counting votes until their candidate wins.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 09, 2018, 10:50:59 AM
CA still has 4.5 million ballots to count. I thought this was an interesting quote:

Quote
“Later voters are much more progressive and diverse,” said Paul Mitchell, a political consultant and vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data. “That means if Republicans are in a contest where the vote difference is a percent or two, that is something that historically isn’t enough to withstand the ballots that are going to come in.”

When I read that, I think of the lazy, unorganized people who show up late for work and everything else and think the world revolves around them. "We'll vote whenever we want. The rules don't apply to us, and if you don't let us show up at our leisure, we'll scream voter repression!"

http://amp.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article221392480.html
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: TommyGunn on November 09, 2018, 11:15:49 AM
McSally is now down by 9600 votes with 99.7% of the precincts tallied.  Unless recounts or lawsuits prolong things, she's toast.

I cannot remember McSally's opponent's name offhand ( :facepalm: )  but she once said she'd be O.K.  with someone joining the Taliban.   Stinks if she gets in.  In other ways too.

But we get the goverment we so richly deserve.  >:D
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: TechMan on November 09, 2018, 02:50:01 PM
Bummer if McSally loses.

In other news, apparently Broward County, FL is just gonna keep finding ballots and counting votes until their candidate wins.

They are being assisted by Palm Beach county. https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/11/09/whoa-thread-on-floridas-voting-laws-broward-and-palm-beach-counties-and-brenda-snipes-is-so-damning/ (https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/11/09/whoa-thread-on-floridas-voting-laws-broward-and-palm-beach-counties-and-brenda-snipes-is-so-damning/)
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Chester32141 on November 09, 2018, 07:36:13 PM
I wonder how much if any the Social Media purge of conservative content affected the election.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/facebook-delivers-for-democrats-erased-2-billion-gop-page-views-in-purge-eliminated-conservative-content-to-suburban-females/

 [popcorn]
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 10, 2018, 03:32:44 PM
Wow. Candidates object to the ballots of non US citizens being rejected.

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2018/11/10/daily-caller-lawyers-for-gillum-and-nelson-objected-to-rejection-of-a-vote-by-a-non-citizen/
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 10, 2018, 08:58:43 PM
McSally is now down by 9600 votes with 99.7% of the precincts tallied.  Unless recounts or lawsuits prolong things, she's toast.

Sad to say, it looks like you're right. Latest counts seem to leave no room for McSally to surge ahead. I thought AZ was a lot more conservative than it apparently is.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on November 10, 2018, 08:59:50 PM
Sad to say, it looks like you're right. Latest counts seem to leave no room for McSally to surge ahead. I thought AZ was a lot more conservative than it apparently is.

Clearly she didn't clear the margin of fraud.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 10, 2018, 10:17:58 PM
Georgia is also interesting.

Why is it that every time post election that the magic ballot tree produces ballots, or the magic ballot ferry pops up with some magically found boxes full of ballots, they are always dem ballots?

https://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2018/11/10/surprise-georgia-democrats-encouraged-as-thousands-of-new-votes-have-come-in-for-stacey-abrams/

Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Hawkmoon on November 10, 2018, 11:07:21 PM
This is a major part of why I don't think early voting or any sort of remote voting other than the traditional absentee ballot should be allowed. And traditionally, absentee ballots were only authorized for cause -- like of you were going to be out of the state on election day so there was no way you could get to the polling place, or if you were physically incapacitated in a way the would make it difficult or impossible for you to travel to the polling place.

All these new provisions for early voting and mail-in ballots are opening not just the door, but a virtual floodgate for fraud. And it makes a mockery out the term "election day." Election day seems to have turned into "election month."
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: bedlamite on November 11, 2018, 10:45:07 AM
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article211080274.html

Why is Bernda Snipes still in charge of elections in Broward County?
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Scout26 on November 11, 2018, 12:48:24 PM
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article211080274.html

Why is Bernda Snipes still in charge of elections in Broward County?

Why is Donna Brazile in charge of elections in that county ??
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: makattak on November 11, 2018, 03:49:09 PM
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/broward/article211080274.html

Why is Bernda Snipes still in charge of elections in Broward County?

Because it's an elected position and she's doing EXACTLY what her Democrat constituents want.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: dogmush on November 11, 2018, 05:00:33 PM
Because it's an elected position and she's doing EXACTLY what her Democrat constituents want.

I know it would cause an un-ending shitstorm, but I kind of want to see the State just throw out all of Broward county's ballots this election, on the basis that so many election laws were broken no results can be trusted.

See if the folks in Broward want to organize a recall so that their elections get unfucked.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RocketMan on November 12, 2018, 08:44:59 PM
Arizona Republican McSally has conceded to the Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-martha-mcsally-concedes-arizona-senate-race-to-democrat-kyrsten-sinema)
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Andiron on November 12, 2018, 09:04:44 PM
Arizona Republican McSally has conceded to the Democrat Kyrsten Sinema. (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/republican-martha-mcsally-concedes-arizona-senate-race-to-democrat-kyrsten-sinema)

Within the margin of cheat as of last week, I'm incredibly skeptical.  It magically went from Mcsally up over 1% to this?  Bullshit.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 12, 2018, 10:30:34 PM
Within the margin of cheat as of last week, I'm incredibly skeptical.  It magically went from Mcsally up over 1% to this?  Bullshit.

Again, I am shocked that AZ is this left. I could maybe see a centric dem winning, but this is a far left green party lefty. CA's Feinstein is more conservative than this one.  I totally misunderstood AZ demographics. She'll be hanging out with Harris, Booker, et al. in their little commie circle jerk.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Hawkmoon on November 13, 2018, 12:32:22 AM
Florida -- they don't even try to hide the cheating (or at least not hide the hiding):

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/11/must-see-video-broward-county-elections-officials-block-view-as-ballots-are-bundled-and-bagged-in-davie-florida-voting-center/
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 13, 2018, 07:03:33 PM
"Unconventionally marked". What, like marked by a retard that couldn't follow directions? Do we really want the retards voting? Why are so many of the retards in South Florida?

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2018/11/13/more-florida-fun-sen-bill-nelson-sues-to-protect-unconventionally-marked-ballots/
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: MechAg94 on November 13, 2018, 09:03:56 PM
Again, I am shocked that AZ is this left. I could maybe see a centric dem winning, but this is a far left green party lefty. CA's Feinstein is more conservative than this one.  I totally misunderstood AZ demographics. She'll be hanging out with Harris, Booker, et al. in their little commie circle jerk.
Are they that left or are there just a bunch of anti-Trump voters there?  They have been reelecting McCain for decades.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RoadKingLarry on November 13, 2018, 09:28:01 PM
"Unconventionally marked". What, like marked by a retard that couldn't follow directions? Do we really want the retards voting? Why are so many of the retards in South Florida?

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2018/11/13/more-florida-fun-sen-bill-nelson-sues-to-protect-unconventionally-marked-ballots/


Quote
Why are so many of the retards in South Florida?

Is Chad still a popular name in Florida?
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Andiron on November 15, 2018, 04:43:16 PM
Again, I am shocked that AZ is this left. I could maybe see a centric dem winning, but this is a far left green party lefty. CA's Feinstein is more conservative than this one.  I totally misunderstood AZ demographics. She'll be hanging out with Harris, Booker, et al. in their little commie circle jerk.

Yep.  Something is rotten in AZ.


McCain was a jackass,  but he wasn't a Code Pink type.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: BobR on November 15, 2018, 04:58:42 PM
Yep.  Something is rotten in AZ.


McCain was a jackass,  but he wasn't a Code Pink type.

The last article I read said the five states that people are moving from to go to Arizona are CA, CO, OR, TX and foreign residents. If like those remaining in the states they came from I would wager many are more liberal than not. AZ is no longer the bastion of conservatives it once was.

bob
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: RoadKingLarry on November 15, 2018, 06:36:39 PM
Even Oklahoma isn't as "red" as it used to be, we had a dozen or so people vote democrat this time around.
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Ben on November 16, 2018, 06:06:38 PM
So I guess "lose and sue" will be the new normal?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/stacey-abrams-acknowledges-she-cant-defeat-brian-kemp-is-georgia-governor-race
Title: Re: Place Your Bets !!!
Post by: Hawkmoon on November 16, 2018, 08:31:22 PM
So I guess "lose and sue" will be the new normal?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/stacey-abrams-acknowledges-she-cant-defeat-brian-kemp-is-georgia-governor-race

Soon to be followed by her autobiography: What Went Wrong (Georgia Edition)