Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Nick1911 on April 28, 2020, 09:45:51 AM
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I'm hearing more and more chatter in my neck of the woods about easing restrictions and getting things back to normal.
I'll admit, I haven't been following the COVID19 news much anymore. Little burned out, and just got busy with stuff going on around here.
I don't really understand what has changed since the restrictions went in place such that NOW we can reopen things safely? We don't have a vaccine... is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now? Certainly there's been a cultural shift, so perhaps folks will be more careful and keep the spread down regardless?
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is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now?
(https://i0.wp.com/www.nationalreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/UStests427.jpg?resize=1024%2C565&ssl=1)
At the rate of the past few days, the U.S. has roughly doubled its testing capacity since last week. With 1.5 million tests reported last week, the U.S. has passed former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb’s initial threshold of 750,000 weekly tests to begin rolling back physical-distancing measures. Gottlieb has since suggested that a much higher number will be necessary to reopen the economy. Economist Paul Romer puts the number at 2 million tests a day, or 14 million a week, far more than the U.S. is currently conducting. While we have a long way to go, the recent increase in testing bodes well for the U.S.’s ability to relax the national shutdown.
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... I don't really understand what has changed since the restrictions went in place such that NOW we can reopen things safely? We don't have a vaccine... is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now? Certainly there's been a cultural shift, so perhaps folks will be more careful and keep the spread down regardless?
None of the last 3+ months of China Virus madness makes any sense.
We aren't given good accurate information so how can we even make an actual educated choice?
Welcome to clown world.
By not paying attention you chose well, wiser than me.
All my observations have done is infuriate me, destroying what little faith in our institutions I had remaining.
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Iowa is doing it county by county, May 1 77 or the 99 counties will have limited reopening of businesses, with more opening on May 15. The 22 other counties is where we have had a expediential growth in those testing positive, packing plants and nursing homes.
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No, our testing is not and will not be sufficient to "contain outbreaks" and that was never the purpose of the lockdown.
That's what cowardly people who want to prolong the suffering of the economy are falling back on in order to prevent opening the economy back up.
We were supposed to be "flattening the curve" so the hospitals weren't overwhelmed with cases because it was understood that we couldn't contain the outbreak.
And, instead of overwhelmed hospitals, we have hospitals in danger of closing because they have no patients.
Seems to me we succeeded in "flattening the curve" and now we need to get things moving before we destroy our healthcare system, in addition to the thousands of small businesses that have amazingly not closed yet. (Since we've already destroyed the dreams and aspirations of other untold thousands of small business owners.)
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Too little, too late. So many small businesses have been destroyed that it will take several years for the economy to recover to even Obama levels. Same thing for unemployment.
Roaring Trump economy levels? Forget about it, never to be seen again.
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We're opening 01MAY. Also doing the "staged" thing, with stuff like bars opening last. I don't know when the "last" date is.
Honestly, I'm not sure what the difference will be versus the last few weeks. Most places I go have been almost business as usual, other than some people wearing masks. The only place I haven't gone is Costco because I don't want to wait in line to get in. Might be interesting to go there in the next couple of days, then again right after 01MAY to see what the difference is.
The Home Depot I go to in Oregon has been packed - almost more people than pre-virus on weekdays. My understanding is that Oregon joined that California "Western states science" gang that is extending the shutdown, but you couldn't tell that from any of the businesses in Eastern Oregon.
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Too little, too late. So many small businesses have been destroyed that it will take several years for the economy to recover to even Obama levels. Same thing for unemployment.
Roaring Trump economy levels? Forget about it, never to be seen again.
The fundamentals of the economy are better than they were 12 years ago. It won't be a "V" recovery but it will be decent.
"Roaring Trump economy levels? Forget about it, never to be seen again." Wow. Never? Not even in the year 2525 --- assuming man is still alive?
A bit pessimistic in the hyperbole there, RocketMan, IMHO. ;/
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The recovery will be robust for those who were already robust.
The recovery will be weak for those that were already weak.
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The oil industry has taken a big hit. They would have taken a hit with the low oil prices, but the lock down reduced demand on top of that. However, the oil industry goes up and down periodically so it could bounce back better than most. Depends on how the market changes going forward.
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The fundamentals of the economy are better than they were 12 years ago. It won't be a "V" recovery but it will be decent.
"Roaring Trump economy levels? Forget about it, never to be seen again." Wow. Never? Not even in the year 2525 --- assuming man is still alive?
A bit pessimistic in the hyperbole there, RocketMan, IMHO. ;/
Unless the Presidential term limit is changed, and/or he has an exceptionally long life span, we only have about 4-5 years to reinstate a "roaring Trump economy."
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I don't really understand what has changed since the restrictions went in place such that NOW we can reopen things safely? We don't have a vaccine... is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now? Certainly there's been a cultural shift, so perhaps folks will be more careful and keep the spread down regardless?
I think you might call 20-million-plus unemployment a "cultural shift." That's what changed.
Then there's the fact we've already been doing this for a month or more (location-dependent), and we can't do it forever. So there was a chronological change.
Plus we seem to have dodged the overcrowded hospital problem, so that changed.
And then you have just way too many examples of over-reach from government, and hypocrisy from the elite Fredos, which sours people on the whole idea.
And in those places where government isn't enforcing heavy-handed quarantine policies, everyone's going out to Home Depot, or having private get-togethers anyway, so why bother?
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I see a labor uprising, going to hard for some folks to go back to work when they were making more money on unemployment then actually working. That extra $600 a week is going to sting a lot of people. $600 a week is $15.00/hr.
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Some doctors on both coasts calling for an end to the lock-down.
https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/fear-of-it-is-being-over-amplified-er-doctor-claims-its-time-for-country-to-get-back-to-work
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The fundamentals of the economy are better than they were 12 years ago. It won't be a "V" recovery but it will be decent.
"Roaring Trump economy levels? Forget about it, never to be seen again." Wow. Never? Not even in the year 2525 --- assuming man is still alive?
A bit pessimistic in the hyperbole there, RocketMan, IMHO. ;/
A little hyperbolic your own self there. The year 2525? Really?
It will be many years, if ever, before the economy recovers to the level that can be attributed to the Trump business tax cut. Small business has been devastated by the lockdown, and many small businesses are gone for good. Whether you realize it or not, small business is the mainstay of our economy. It will take years for new businesses to take the places of those that are gone. That is not an instant process.
It's more likely in my opinion that the Democrats will find themselves back in power permanently at some point, and those business tax cuts will be history. Evil business must pay its fair share, after all. When that happens, the best we can hope for is tepid annual GDP growth and unemployment rates of 7-8% as the new normal.
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A little hyperbolic your own self there. The year 2525? Really?
It will be many years, if ever, before the economy recovers to the level that can be attributed to the Trump business tax cut. Small business has been devastated by the lockdown, and many small businesses are gone for good. Whether you realize it or not, small business is the mainstay of our economy. It will take years for new businesses to take the places of those that are gone. That is not an instant process.
It's more likely in my opinion that the Democrats will find themselves back in power permanently at some point, and those business tax cuts will be history. Evil business must pay its fair share, after all. When that happens, the best we can hope for is tepid annual GDP growth and unemployment rates of 7-8% as the new normal.
That's what I said. 2525 - 2020 = 505. It will be 505 years. That's "many years." [tinfoil] (It was lifted from an obscure old song from the 1960s I believe .... :old: :facepalm: )
I know a lot of small businesses have been decimated. But those people won't be sitting on their hands.
And I'm sure at some time a demorat president will be elected -- but Gawd help us NOT Biden!
I find your estimates inordinately pessimistic ..... I also find other's estimates overly optimistic.
But what really fries me is that whatever happens .... we did this to ourselves ..... :facepalm: :'( :mad:
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That's what I said. 2525 - 2020 = 505. It will be 505 years. That's "many years." [tinfoil] (It was lifted from an obscure old song from the 1960s I believe .... :old: :facepalm: )
1968, and hardly "obscure." It charted number one in the U.S. and in the U,K.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_the_Year_2525
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic
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I'm hearing more and more chatter in my neck of the woods about easing restrictions and getting things back to normal.
I'll admit, I haven't been following the COVID19 news much anymore. Little burned out, and just got busy with stuff going on around here.
I don't really understand what has changed since the restrictions went in place such that NOW we can reopen things safely? We don't have a vaccine... is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now? Certainly there's been a cultural shift, so perhaps folks will be more careful and keep the spread down regardless?
It's *expletive deleted*ing up the economy, and all the women need their hair dyed. With very little spread to rural areas, people there aren't feeling any effects from the virus.
Whether we get a full on second wave or not, remains to be seen. It's possible that enough herd immunity has spread, and a slow "reopening" will help spread that without it being overwhelming.
Testing capacity is finally up, and rapid tests are coming to market.
I suspect we'll see smaller, localized outbreaks. Whether we're smart enough for small shutdowns in those areas to keep it contained or not, that remains to be seen.
Vaccine? Next year at the earliest.
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Vaccine? Next year at the earliest.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-university-scientists-september/
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-university-scientists-september/
The government will fast track the vaccine, which will be available this fall. Most people will get it and the Chinese virus will have become one more "flu" to deal with.
Summer will cause a natural ebb in the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, leading to a recovery. By election time, the stock market will have been recovered and Trump sails to victory.
Oh, and all the spending moves us 6 months closer to the reckoning for unfunded liabilities.
So, if Oxford gets it first, I was wrong on who would make the vaccine, but not on the timing.
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https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/29/greatest-living-american-writer-we-will-never-be-safe-until-we-are-safe/
As this disease weakens us, it also strengthens us. As it pulls us apart, it also brings us together. We must all learn what it is like to eat disinfected cardboard soaked in a little soy sauce and to live in perpetual fear of people who look happy. Because of our lax government response to the disease, and the lack of antibody tests that may or may not be accurate, this is the reality in which we live. We must isolate the tested, test the isolated, and stun children at the playground with laser drones.
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We're opening 01MAY. Also doing the "staged" thing, with stuff like bars opening last. I don't know when the "last" date is.
Honestly, I'm not sure what the difference will be versus the last few weeks. Most places I go have been almost business as usual, other than some people wearing masks. The only place I haven't gone is Costco because I don't want to wait in line to get in. Might be interesting to go there in the next couple of days, then again right after 01MAY to see what the difference is.
The Home Depot I go to in Oregon has been packed - almost more people than pre-virus on weekdays. My understanding is that Oregon joined that California "Western states science" gang that is extending the shutdown, but you couldn't tell that from any of the businesses in Eastern Oregon.
Glad common sense is prevailing somewhere in Oregon.
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1968, and hardly "obscure." It charted number one in the U.S. and in the U,K.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_the_Year_2525
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic
Well .... it appears to be obscure in the year 2020 .... =D ....... [tinfoil]
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Well .... it appears to be obscure in the year 2020 .... =D ....... [tinfoil]
Funny, I recognize this from the futurama parody of it. Didn't know until now that it was actually referencing a song from the 60's.
So, obscure to me, maybe... But I'm young enough to not clearly remember when the soviet union existed. I suspect it's not obscure to older folks.
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. . . Didn't know until now that it was actually referencing a song from the 60's . . .
Philistine.*
* - that term originates a bit before the 1960s . . . ;)
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Well .... it appears to be obscure in the year 2020 .... =D ....... [tinfoil]
We have a Alpha Media owned 25k radio station in central Iowa that has it in their rotation. Great little station, on Iheart radio, 105.9 The Beach. I can't pick it up where I live but I listen to when I work in it's broadcast area and on IHeart app at home from time to time.
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That's what I said. 2525 - 2020 = 505. It will be 505 years. That's "many years." [tinfoil] (It was lifted from an obscure old song from the 1960s I believe .... :old: :facepalm: )
Incidentally, the song you pulled from was not obscure to me. It was a Top 40 hit when I was in junior high school.
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Incidentally, the song you pulled from was not obscure to me. It was a Top 40 hit when I was in junior high school.
Good. I always liked that song and am pleased others here still remember it. ;)
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Our ... esteemed Governor bath decreed that way may fish, hunt, and play golf. Other restrictions due to be lifted May 4 ... won't be. No new timetable either.
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Missouri begins to open 4th May.
I live adjacent to a large city, so of course our county is still shut down "indefinitely." We're just across the river from St. Charles County, though, which has decided to join the American side of the state in opening. Maybe we can go out to eat, like human beings, again.
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South Dakota never locked down. I don't know if it's comparable, but they look to have about 1/2 the population Idaho has. We locked down and had 50 deaths so far. They have had 13.
I didn't catch it, but it appears their Governor was sent through the MSM "virus apocalypse" wringer for not shutting down.
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/04/30/over-2-weeks-ago-south-dakota-gov-kristi-noem-was-criticized-for-not-issuing-a-stay-at-home-order-lets-check-in-on-the-state-shall-we/
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South Dakota never locked down. I don't know if it's comparable, but they look to have about 1/2 the population Idaho has. We locked down and had 50 deaths so far. They have had 6.
I didn't catch it, but it appears their Governor was sent through the MSM "virus apocalypse" wringer for not shutting down.
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/04/30/over-2-weeks-ago-south-dakota-gov-kristi-noem-was-criticized-for-not-issuing-a-stay-at-home-order-lets-check-in-on-the-state-shall-we/
It's reported at 13, not six, but the point still stands.
The lockdowns were MASSIVE overreactions in everywhere but the most urban areas.
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It's reported at 13, not six, but the point still stands.
The lockdowns were MASSIVE overreactions in everywhere but the most urban areas.
Derp. You are correct. I'm posting pre-coffee #2 again. :laugh:
Fixed in my op.
EDIT: Man, I need stronger coffee. Idaho has had 60 deaths, not 50. Though if it wasn't for Boise metro and Sun Valley, we would be closer to SD's numbers.
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The lockdowns were MASSIVE overreactions in everywhere but the most urban areas.
I would throw in communities with meat packing plants too. There seem to be some pretty big problems there.
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I would throw in communities with meat packing plants too. There seem to be some pretty big problems there.
Except the meat packing plants are essential and would never be and have not been locked down.
(I can go for introducing significant mitigating protection for such places, though. And insisting that SICK PEOPLE STAY HOME, instead of giving bonuses that induce sick people to come to work so they don't miss out on the bonuses, thereby infecting more at the plant... as I've read anecdotally happened.)
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Except the meat packing plants are essential and would never be and have not been locked down.
(I can go for introducing significant mitigating protection for such places, though. And insisting that SICK PEOPLE STAY HOME, instead of giving bonuses that induce sick people to come to work so they don't miss out on the bonuses, thereby infecting more at the plant... as I've read anecdotally happened.)
In Iowa, Tyson foods moved asymptotic people around to different plants to help with the labor shortages due to people sick with Covid-19. This has only popped as a sentence or two in a couple of articles. This may have some ramifications to Tyson on contributing to the spread of the disease. Probably not since they feed the political machine with dollars.
Also don't forget about outbreaks in nursing homes. I'm actually surprised we haven't had outbreaks in group homes for mentally handicapped folks.
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You need to factor in all the folks that normally go to work sick with colds or flu out of fear of losing their jobs. How many of the folks testing positive for the beer virus at these plants were just doing what's expected of them in the first place?
ETA: This was my 10k post. Should have saved it for something more memorable.
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You need to factor in all the folks that normally go to work sick with colds or flu out of fear of losing their jobs. How many of the folks testing positive for the beer virus at these plants were just doing what's expected of them in the first place?
ETA: This was my 10k post. Should have saved it for something more memorable.
I thought I saw somewhere that one of the plants was incentivizing workers to come in and not call in sick.
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I thought I saw somewhere that one of the plants was incentivizing workers to come in and not call in sick.
Management at packing plants morally are not much better than the fish poop under pond scum. Everyday, I am overjoyed that I don't have to work at a kill plant.
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Everyday, I am overjoyed that I don't have to work at a kill plant.
You don't want a free T-shirt?
Cortes believes JBS moved too slowly and didn't do enough to help workers when the virus began to spread in the plant. Instead of checking on her sick family, she said, the company sent a text message to employees on April 16 offering a free T-shirt, ground beef and toilet paper.
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Based on my personal experience, healthcare and education pretty much expects you to come in even with minor illnesses. They may say they don't, but if you have to call in and talk to the nursing manager or the principal to tell them you aren't coming in, that tends to hold down the sickness calls.
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Where I used to work before I retired, management encouraged people to stay home if they were sick, so as to not infect others in the work place. Then they turned right around and required the hourly folks to get a doctors permission slip if they were going to stay home more than a day due to illness. That was kind of contradictory in its effect in that who really needs to go to the doctor for the common cold? Who wants to spend a couple hundred bucks to be told what they already know about their illness just so they can be permitted to stay home a few days to get over it. So, folks came to work sick to avoid getting fired.
We salaried folks didn't have to jump through those hoops, but there was still some peer pressure in that folks that stayed home when they were sick were wimping out.
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I think where I'm working, under the previous sick leave policy, you have to be out sick for more than 3 days before they start asking for a doctor's note. The current policy mostly mooted that as we only get 5 days a year (previously not discretely limited) and if you need more than that you have to use vacation time. If you want an accommodation, or want to use the short term disability benefits, for a medical issue (e.g. telecommuting when I couldn't drive because of the seizure) they require documentation from a doctor.
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Yeah __&_ says "don't come to work if you are sick" and then counsels you with stern reminders that you are expected to be at work every day and that excessive absence can result in discipline up to and including termination. Last year I took 1.5 sick days. one in January and one in October. In January I had a nasty cold and in October I had some kind of stomach bug which afforded me the pleasure of essentially ruining a pair of skivvies on the way home. I was told I was beginning to show a "pattern" with my absences. =|
A previous employer deducted 1% off of my annual raise because I left early one night because I had broken out with a massive case of hives after they had sprayed the building for bugs that day after the day shift had left. Next time I was sick I made a dedicated point of spending as much time as possible around my manager, coughing and hacking, cold sweats and all. Don't kow for sure it was the same bug but a week later he spent 3 days in the hospital with a upper respritory tract infection. I laughed to myself.
They can have whatever public "don't come to work sick" policy they want but if you get severely penalized for actually availing yourself of it and you get penalized it doesn't work
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My company gives all the hourly guys 3 days of personal/sick time to use as they see fit. If it is something serious, they go on short term disability after 3 days. This year, the company set up 10 days of COVID-19 time I assume to avoid a glut of short term disability cases.
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The One Weird Thing That Doctors Hate: having to do sickness excuses for people. It wastes time, it wastes money, and it wastes scarce healthcare resources. Although I have had the pleasure of dealing with some people who forged an excuse, subsequently got caught and were fired. >:D
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Paid leave is paid leave, especially if you employer has a use it or lose it policy for paid leave, one should not be poo-pooed for not using it. I also understand why some companies have gone to a PTO program where sick/vacation are merged together. I bet we all have a story where a coworker used up every bit of leave as soon as it was available to use.
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Millcreek, in the late 90's I had insurance that was to pay my bills if I got hurt. I tore my right shoulder at work and none of my doctors would sign the form.
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Paid leave is paid leave, especially if you employer has a use it or lose it policy for paid leave, one should not be poo-pooed for not using it. I also understand why some companies have gone to a PTO program where sick/vacation are merged together. I bet we all have a story where a coworker used up every bit of leave as soon as it was available to use.
I work for uncle sam. I know quite a few people who have. Hell, as difficult as it is to get disciplined for leave abuse, I know a dude in my area who got a disciplinary letter last year for sick leave abuse.
We just got rid of his buddy (sent to an administrative job when he lost his medical). That guy, slipped and fell (probably drunk) at home and ended up with a brain bleed which led to a seizure. Hospital for a few weeks. Near 0 any kind of leave balance when he went in and ended up on the leave donation roster. *expletive deleted*ck you.
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I work for uncle sam. I know quite a few people who have. Hell, as difficult as it is to get disciplined for leave abuse, I know a dude in my area who got a disciplinary letter last year for sick leave abuse.
We just got rid of his buddy (sent to an administrative job when he lost his medical). That guy, slipped and fell (probably drunk) at home and ended up with a brain bleed which led to a seizure. Hospital for a few weeks. Near 0 any kind of leave balance when he went in and ended up on the leave donation roster. *expletive deleted*ck you.
I cannot understand that mentality.
I'm always having to figure out what to do since half the year I'm usually nearing my max vacation leave. (And my sick leave is pretty much always at max- we have separate banks for sick and vacation leave.)
After summer vacations, I usually have a small breather for worrying about that, but currently I'm less than 20 hours away from my max. I likely will have to take a day off this month, in fact.
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I work for uncle sam. I know quite a few people who have. Hell, as difficult as it is to get disciplined for leave abuse, I know a dude in my area who got a disciplinary letter last year for sick leave abuse.
We just got rid of his buddy (sent to an administrative job when he lost his medical). That guy, slipped and fell (probably drunk) at home and ended up with a brain bleed which led to a seizure. Hospital for a few weeks. Near 0 any kind of leave balance when he went in and ended up on the leave donation roster. *expletive deleted*ck you.
I work for both State of Iowa and Uncle Sugar (state writes the pay check and benefits), sick leave is basically after 2 days, you have to call a 3rd party group to fill out a bunch of paperwork on why its more than 2 days. Surprisingly in my department when a leave donation call gets sent out, almost everyone has burned several weeks of leave and just needing a week or two to get them to temp disability insurance. Last couple have been terminal cancer folks that aren't going to return to work.
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Paid leave is paid leave, especially if you employer has a use it or lose it policy for paid leave, one should not be poo-pooed for not using it. I also understand why some companies have gone to a PTO program where sick/vacation are merged together. I bet we all have a story where a coworker used up every bit of leave as soon as it was available to use.
We went to an all PTO time a couple years ago. New hires get 144 hours, after 5 years you get 160 hours. 4 weeks off is very good time off IMHO. Also nice is that I can actually use it, unlike when I was with the state when we accumulated a ton of time but using it was very difficult. My bosses are very chill about us taking it, two years ago I had to take a week and a half off for my father’s death and this year I had to take a week off no notice to care for my dog after he had emergency back surgery.
As an incentive to not use it all you can save up to 40 hours and get a check cut for the amount after the end of the year. Last year they allowed up to 80 hours. No rollovers.
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I cannot understand that mentality.
I'm always having to figure out what to do since half the year I'm usually nearing my max vacation leave. (And my sick leave is pretty much always at max- we have separate banks for sick and vacation leave.)
After summer vacations, I usually have a small breather for worrying about that, but currently I'm less than 20 hours away from my max. I likely will have to take a day off this month, in fact.
I understand people using vacation as much as possible (what vacation is for), but sick leave especially when you and your family are relatively healthy. I have the same problem with vacation, I usually have 5-6 weeks in the bank, if not more (cap is 11 weeks for my years of employment) and save up enough sick leave in plenty of excess to get me past temp disability insurance. I have congenital heart disease, never taken it for granted that I will be able to work to retirement age.
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Today is the first day of our phased reopening. From what I read in the paper, rules are confusing as hell between what gov says you can and can't do and individual businesses say you can and can't do in them. I'm gonna have to keep a mask in my car since mask/no mask seems to be the biggest variable on the private side.
I still say if a private business is going to require masks (without the gov telling them to) they should offer free (or even a buck or two) cloth masks at their doors for those potential customers that were unaware. Seems dumb to turn away business, because if I went to a place unaware without a mask, it's not like I'm going home to get one and coming right back.
Also, interesting side note, I read that some businesses (not specific to me - I read it on CNN or somewhere) will be refusing anyone entry if their mask has a valve on it, because the valve can release infected particles. So much for being a smartass and wearing my gas mask. :laugh:
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2020 day planners are really cheap now.
Illinois is starting to loosen some things up but a lot of it makes no sense whatsoever.
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2020 day planners are really cheap now.
Illinois is starting to loosen some things up but a lot of it makes no sense whatsoever.
To modify the State Farm commercial:
Well, it's Illinois, so....
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2020 day planners are really cheap now.
Illinois is starting to loosen some things up but a lot of it makes no sense whatsoever.
The left takes its vision seriously - more seriously than it takes the rights of other people. They want to be our shepherds. But that requires us to be sheep.
Thomas Sowell
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The following is from the Wall Street Journal (trans-paywall), via The Daily Wire.
Even though many states are now lifting lockdown restrictions, particularly those states where the coronavirus “peak” has already come and gone, Americans are leaving their homes in “trickles, not droves,” according to the Wall Street Journal, and absent a few notable exceptions, are largely abiding by “social distancing” and other virus-related restrictions without the threat of fines and jail time.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/even-with-lockdowns-lifted-americans-went-out-in-trickles-not-droves
I think this is a good indication that states re-opening are making the right decision. People aren't flooding into bars and barber shops to slobber on one another. Sure, there may be people who want to act like it's all over, and the virus is no big deal, but it seems most people are trying to be careful. Or maybe people can't afford to go anywhere or do anything. If so, that just shows we've been shut down long enough, and it's time to let people make a living.
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bUt tHe DeAth tOlL aND cAsE nUMbeRs aRe sTiLL inCreAsing
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https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/04/850143460/white-house-rejects-government-report-projecting-rising-coronavirus-death-toll?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates
Hmm, governmental estimates are for 3,000 per day dying by June 1. I guess we will see.
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https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/04/850143460/white-house-rejects-government-report-projecting-rising-coronavirus-death-toll?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates
Hmm, governmental estimates are for 3,000 per day dying by June 1. I guess we will see.
Why do I keep seeing 60k+ deaths in the media when the cdc has it so much lower?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
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Why do I keep seeing 60k+ deaths in the media when the cdc has it so much lower?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
I saw that link over the weekend. It was 37,000 or so on Saturday. Looks like they are updating it. Also note they have a couple columns over to the right that shows deaths from multiple causes that may include COVID-19.
It shows 740,000 for all causes so far this year. That is quite a few deaths. Puts some of this in perspective.
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Why do I keep seeing 60k+ deaths in the media when the cdc has it so much lower?
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Probably referencing this
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
(which lists 67,456 deaths at the moment)
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https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/04/850143460/white-house-rejects-government-report-projecting-rising-coronavirus-death-toll?utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=nprblogscoronavirusliveupdates
Hmm, governmental estimates are for 3,000 per day dying by June 1. I guess we will see.
"All models are wrong, but some are useful."
How many of the models have been even remotely close enough to reality to call them useful?
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"All models are wrong, but some are useful."
How many of the models have been even remotely close enough to reality to call them useful?
Good question.
What models do we have that time proved to be not remotely close enough to be useful, and what's left? Honest question, I haven't read many of the whitepapers or pre-publish stuff since early March.
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I certainly could be wrong but I don't think a single model has been close enough in retrospect to have been useful. At least all the ones I remember were off by an order of magnitude of worse. I think the initial predictions, IF WE LOCKED DOWN AS WE DID, was at least several times, if not 10x the deaths we actually saw. Assuming the death counts are even representative of reality and not over-inflated.
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Probably referencing this
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html
(which lists 67,456 deaths at the moment)
Thanks
So the CDC is speaking with a forked tongue.
Referencing my CDC link we see the devil is in the details.
Herd and group think aren't known for their attention to details.
Everybody gets to see what they want to see.
Chaos by design.
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I saw that link over the weekend. It was 37,000 or so on Saturday. Looks like they are updating it. Also note they have a couple columns over to the right that shows deaths from multiple causes that may include COVID-19.
It shows 740,000 for all causes so far this year. That is quite a few deaths. Puts some of this in perspective.
The data compiled and maintained by Johns-Hopkins are generally regarded as the most accurate and up-to-date. As of this morning (5 May) they show 68,934 deaths from CV-19 in the U.S.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
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So the CDC is speaking with a forked tongue.
They are showing two different datasets. One is based on national published death records and is slower to update. The other is based on reported confirmed and probable deaths that (as far as I can tell) is reported more regularly by the states.
The provisional counts for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) deaths are based on a current flow of mortality data in the National Vital Statistics System. National provisional counts include deaths occurring within the 50 states and the District of Columbia that have been received and coded as of the date specified. It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods. Death counts for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. COVID-19 death counts shown here may differ from other published sources, as data currently are lagged by an average of 1–2 weeks.
As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement pdf iconexternal iconissued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.
A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19.
A probable case or death is defined by one of the following:
Meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19
Meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence
Meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19
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They are showing two different datasets. One is based on national published death records and is slower to update.
My assumption is that the lagging one is their standard system that has been in place for years and is fine for most purposes. However, having numbers be that far behind can be problematic during a pandemic where exponential growth occurs so they setup a rapid reporting system focused just on Covid19 to get more up-to-date information.
That or one page is run by QAnon patriots and reports the truth while the other is run by the lizard people and is not only fake news but will eventually brainwash you. [tinfoil]
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My assumption is that the lagging one is their standard system that has been in place for years and is fine for most purposes. However, having numbers be that far behind can be problematic during a pandemic where exponential growth occurs so they setup a rapid reporting system focused just on Covid19 to get more up-to-date information.
That or one page is run by QAnon patriots and reports the truth while the other is run by the lizard people and is not only fake news but will eventually brainwash you. [tinfoil]
Yes, questioning sources of important information that are not agreeing with each other on how many are infected or have died (39k - 69K depending on source) means you must believe in conspiracies.
Be a good citizen comrade, believe the authorities and obey.
How dare you doubt the models, they're SCIENCE! :rofl:
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https://www.dailywire.com/news/andrew-cuomo-says-parts-of-ny-state-can-reopen-on-friday
So is opening acceptable now, or has Cuomo become one of those crazy, racist, anti-vaxxer, Covid-deniers?
???
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SWMBO and I were running errands around town today. Lots of permanently closed businesses, mostly restaurants.
Very sad, but I guess if it saved just one life...
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SWMBO and I were running errands around town today. Lots of permanently closed businesses, mostly restaurants.
Very sad, but I guess if it saved just one life...
We could use some job-creators right now, even if they don't build that and somebody else makes that happen.
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So CNN's take is that people are now saving instead of spending, and reducing credit card debt, and that's bad. I get what they want to say regarding commerce keeping the economy churning, but really, find another way to say it.
In truth, in the last couple of decades, and especially the last decade, we have become crazy over-consumers. I admit I'm often one of them with spur of the moment splurge buying on Amazon, etc. where the purchase is a click away on a saved credit card at the website. It would do us good to step back from "buy! buy! buy!" and do at least a little saving, or at least not carrying so much credit card debt. It could be something good coming out of the whole virus response.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/12/investing/jobs-coronavirus-consumer-spending-debt/index.html
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Stupid XiNN. I guess they want us to hurry up and send all of our money to China right away.
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Our church will open its doors again next weekend. We've been holding drive-in services since Resurrection Sunday. Prior to that, we had services indoors, but there were only 10 or 15 of us there. We were already streaming our services on Facebook.
We never stopped having Wednesday night services, but again, only 10 or 15 people have been showing up.
Edit: got some dates mixed up.
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We live on the flight path (under some wind conditions) to the local airport.
There has been a very noticeable drop in air traffic the past 8 weeks.
Today has seen a very drastic increase. Good sign.
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After two months, my free-loading wife goes back to work today! :lol:
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My company has been doing drop off/pick ups for bicycle service and started curbside pick up.
I suspect we'll be opening up for customers soon.
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Eating out tonight.
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Went to Ollie's Bargain Outlet and spent way too much but got stuff we needed at good prices.
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Local diner reopened this weekend. They didn't follow the stupid *expletive deleted*ing 50% capacity rule and I love the place for it.
First time I've had food cooked by someone not me since early March. Worth every penny and tipped the waitress well.
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Eaten a few meals out, including a pizza buffet place last night (they brought you plates to your table instead of having them at the bar and you used a fresh serving spatula each time you went up) and a semi fancy Belgian cuisine place tonight (They really cut their table numbers down)
I don’t see much difference in eating in or takeout as far as risk goes.
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Northern Virginia still hasn't really started to reopen. Some of the parks have, but that's about it. I still haven't had a hair cut in months and I'm looking like an Old English Sheepdog.
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Something I've been finding interesting, and it has all been from what I've read and seen in the MSM, and crosses the political spectrum, is all the pundits and people who are still talking about being isolated inside and not being able to get out in the fresh air.
I suppose that might be true for downtown NYC (where I've never been), but nowhere that I have lived or even visited would have prohibited me from getting "fresh air", even if only going into the backyard or out on a condo deck. Even in Santa Barbara, it would have been easy and not against their stringent rules (or easy not to get caught) to head out and take a walk or go for a run.
Yet, I continually hear people talking as if they have been imprisoned indoors for the last three months.
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Northern Virginia still hasn't really started to reopen. Some of the parks have, but that's about it. I still haven't had a hair cut in months and I'm looking like an Old English Sheepdog.
More rural Virginia never really closed, I guess I didn't do too much non-essential retail before. Still going to work same as ever. I tried to go to a local hair whacker I frequent in Harrisonburg and they were open but appointment only and like two people max cutting hair. So I got pissed at the state of the world, went two blocks down to meet my 900 new closest friends at the local Target, bought a $20 Wahl clipper and I guess the $150 or so a year I spend on haircuts is permanently out of the economy. And the hair doesn't touch my ears now, so all is good.
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Something I've been finding interesting, and it has all been from what I've read and seen in the MSM, and crosses the political spectrum, is all the pundits and people who are still talking about being isolated inside and not being able to get out in the fresh air.
I suppose that might be true for downtown NYC (where I've never been), but nowhere that I have lived or even visited would have prohibited me from getting "fresh air", even if only going into the backyard or out on a condo deck. Even in Santa Barbara, it would have been easy and not against their stringent rules (or easy not to get caught) to head out and take a walk or go for a run.
Yet, I continually hear people talking as if they have been imprisoned indoors for the last three months.
I've had kind of the same thought. I guess it depends quite a bit on where people live, how much they change their behavior, and whether or not they have an essential job they can't do from home. (And obviously, the people who have a national audience are more likely to be living in cities, and working from home.)
Even my wife had a much different experience than I did. I've been working this whole time (though not as much), and aside from that, the only real change for me has been there are a few places I haven't been able to go to. Someone else in my position might have gone straight to and from work, and just had things delivered. In my wife's case, her school closed for two months, and she eventually had to file for unemployment (she went back to work last week). That's kind of a big difference for two people living in the same house.
And then, people talk about all these Karens giving them dirty looks for not wearing masks, and calling them out for breaking various rules. I've been going to grocery stores, hardware stores, convenience stores, auto parts stores, a garage a couple of times, and I haven't encountered anything like that. Just different things going on depending on where you are, I guess.
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One of the pub and grubs opened up (where I used to live) when they could after the governor's order. They had to close last weekend since an employee tested positive for covid. I bet they won't make it six months after they reopen. Be like a restaurant that gets closed for rinovirus or norovirus.
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More rural Virginia never really closed, I guess I didn't do too much non-essential retail before. Still going to work same as ever. I tried to go to a local hair whacker I frequent in Harrisonburg and they were open but appointment only and like two people max cutting hair. So I got pissed at the state of the world, went two blocks down to meet my 900 new closest friends at the local Target, bought a $20 Wahl clipper and I guess the $150 or so a year I spend on haircuts is permanently out of the economy. And the hair doesn't touch my ears now, so all is good.
Our idiot governor is JUST NOW requiring masks be worn in all "public buildings".
When cases are already dropping and were never high in most areas of the state. It's like the blue areas want to just rub it in the face of the rest of the state that they have total control.