YES! Nader might run again, spoil Dem vote!

[De Selby]

you really imagine obama beating mccain?  in the usa?  you do know there are voters who don't live on campus right?

Yes-most voters don't live on campus, as far as I'm aware.  And it seems that Obama is doing well amongst all sectors.  He does better in red states than in blue, which is one big indicator as to how this election is going to turn when it goes national.

Only if you're watching MSNBC.

On what channel was Obama's turnout poor or his political performance subpar?

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

Wednesday, January 30, 2008
AdvertismentThe latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Election 2008 shows Republican frontrunner Senator John McCain with single-digit leads over Democratic Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. McCain now leads Clinton 48% to 40%. He leads Barack Obama 47% to 41%.

In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted mid-January, McCain was two points behind Clinton, five behind Obama. A couple days later McCain won the South Carolina primary.

McCain has led Clinton in four of the last five polling match-ups conducted by Rasmussen Reports. He has had the edge over Obama in three of the last four polls. (see history and trends). Following his victory in Florida, Rasmussen Markets data indicates that McCain is the overwhelming favorite for the Republican Presidential nomination.

This weekend, Rasmussen Reports will begin daily tracking of general election match-ups featuring McCain vs. both Clinton and Obama.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially during the ups and downs of a Primary Election season. This is especially true when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain now has a narrow advantage over Obama 45% to 43%. Prior to this latest poll, they had been tied at 44%. Both men have now been within four points (the margin of error) of the 45% mark for seven consecutive individual polls. Using a three-poll rolling average, McCain leads Clinton by five percentage points, 47% to 42%.

In the new survey McCain enjoys an 22-point advantage among male voters with Clinton as his opponent. He lags by only three points among female voters. There isn't much gender discrepancy in the McCain-Obama match-up. Here McCain leads by eight points among men, five points among women.

McCain does better than either Democrat with unaffiliated voters in the new survey, but especially when Clinton is his opponent. Against the former First Lady, he leads 52% to 31% with unaffiliateds.

John McCain is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by just 43%. His favorables have been in the 50%+ range since late November.

Hillary Clinton is currently viewed favorably by 47%, unfavorably by 51%. Barack Obama is viewed favorably by 51%, unfavorably by 45%.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a 14.8% chance of winning the Democratic nomination and Obama a 84.2% chance. On the Republican side, McCain is now given a 93.8% chance of winning the nomination while Mitt Romney is at 0.8%.Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

New McCain vs. Hillary and Obama Polls
By Jeralyn, Section Elections 2008
Posted on Thu Feb 14, 2008 at 03:18:19 PM EST
Tags: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain (all tags) Share This:     
Big Tent Democrat wrote earlier about the Quinnepac poll showing Hillary leading Barack Obama in Ohio, and PA. From the same poll, via MyDD, about a contest between McCain and Hillary and Obama:

Florida: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 42 percent; McCain 41 percent - Obama 39 percent;
Ohio: McCain 44 percent - Clinton 43 percent; McCain 42 percent - Obama 40 percent;
Pennsylvania: Clinton 46 percent - McCain 40 percent; Obama 42 percent - McCain 41 percent.
In Georgia, an Insider Advantage poll today shows:

McCain: 47 percent, Clinton: 40 percent
McCain: 48 percent, Obama: 40 percent

In both contests independent voters said they would vote for McCain by a 52 percent-to-30 percent margin. Among Democrats, 75 percent said they would vote for Clinton. Sixty-nine percent of Democrats said they would vote for Obama.

More...


MyDD contributor andrewalker08, a Georgia diarist adds to the post:

More than likely Georgia is lost for the General Election....I'm starting to ascribe to the belief that Barack Obama may not win a single state in the south, which contains at least a third of the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.

[De Selby]

Wait, you're citing polls that show statistical dead heat between Obama and McCain (two point differences) in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.......and you conclude that Obama will not win a single state in the south?

Dude, Obama hasn't even started campaigning against McCain and he's already breaking even in the states that would be toughest for him to win. 

For the sake of your rent, don't put too much money on this McCain theory.  The numbers just aren't there my friend.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

its possible i'm mistaken    but only if the republican party decides not to campaign against obama.  so far they have let the dems fight amongst themselves. if clinton doesn't snatch the nomintion at the convention. which wouldn't surprise me at all. obama will have to survive something hes never imagined.  and i've been lead to believe that there is dirt to be aired.time will tell. i've only miss called 2 elections since the peanut farmer shocked me.bill clinton was the other one i missed  so statistically i'm due.betting the mortgage is an interesting idea.  they do a vegas line on the election?  can i lock my bet under long odds now?  geico just paid momma a 24 percent bonus  doubling it would be sweet

[Bogie]

Obama doesn't have the political experience to hang in there when the going gets strange... He's going to slip up somewhere, and it's going to be on tape.

[Manedwolf]

Obama doesn't have the political experience to hang in there when the going gets strange... He's going to slip up somewhere, and it's going to be on tape.

He really still has not said a damned thing but feelgood rhetoric.

Even some nooz sorts are beginning to ask "Well, WHAT is the change?"

That's where it'll get interesting.

[De Selby]

Obama doesn't have the political experience to hang in there when the going gets strange... He's going to slip up somewhere, and it's going to be on tape.

He really still has not said a damned thing but feelgood rhetoric.

Even some nooz sorts are beginning to ask "Well, WHAT is the change?"

That's where it'll get interesting.

Seriously, what electorate are you guys watching?

When is the last time an election was decided by hard questions posed after a night of really good rhetoric?

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dySlhGY6Zyo&feature=related

cue the jaws sound track

[Manedwolf]

He's in!

Nader enters presidential race

Ralph Nader is back for another White House campaign.

He made the announcement Sunday morning on NBC's Meet the Press. According to the Associated Press, Nader criticized the major parties' presidential contenders for failing to address corporate crime, Pentagon waste and labor rights.

The AP notes that some Democrats have blamed Nader for drawing Florida votes that might have otherwise gone to Al Gore in 2000. They're not likely to love him this time around either  Votenader.org is already characterizing Nader as "Mr. Frugal" compared to Sen. Hillary Clinton.

http://blogs.usatoday.com/ondeadline/2008/02/nader-enters-pr.html

Anything that siphons off a single Hilbama vote is fine with me!

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/02/24/AR2008022400278.html?tid=informbox

and its just getting started

Conservatives Say Obama Lacks Patriotism

SLIDESHOW  Previous        Next     
Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., left, and his wife, Michelle, wave as they take the stage during a South Carolina primary victory party in Columbia, S.C., in this Jan. 26, 2008 file photo. Obama's refusal to wear an American flag lapel pin has opened him to criticism from conservatives. Now his wife has drawn their ire too, for saying recently that she's really proud of her country for the first time in her adult life. (AP Photo/Steven Senne, File) (Steven Senne - AP)
 
Democratic presidential hopeful, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill, points to the crowd after speaking at a campaign rally in Cleveland, Saturday, Feb. 23, 2008. (AP Photo/Jamie-Andrea Yanak) (Jamie-andrea Yanak - AP)
 
TOOLBOX
 Resize Text
 Save/Share + DiggNewsvinedel.icio.usStumble It!RedditFacebookPrint This E-mail This
COMMENT
No comments have been posted about this item.

Comments are closed for this item.
 Discussion PolicyDiscussion Policy CLOSEComments that include profanity or personal attacks or other inappropriate comments or material will be removed from the site. Additionally, entries that are unsigned or contain "signatures" by someone other than the actual author will be removed. Finally, we will take steps to block users who violate any of our posting standards, terms of use or privacy policies or any other policies governing this site. Please review the full rules governing commentaries and discussions. You are fully responsible for the content that you post.

Who's Blogging? Links to this article 
By NEDRA PICKLER
The Associated Press
Sunday, February 24, 2008; 7:34 AM

WASHINGTON -- Sen. Barack Obama's refusal to wear an American flag lapel pin along with a photo of him not putting his hand over his heart during the National Anthem led conservatives on Internet and in the media to question his patriotism.

Now Obama's wife, Michelle, has drawn their ire, too, for saying recently that she's really proud of her country for the first time in her adult life.

Conservative consultants say that combined, the cases could be an issue for Obama in the general election if he wins the nomination, especially as he runs against Vietnam war hero Sen. John McCain.

"The reason it hasn't been an issue so far is that we're still in the microcosm of the Democratic primary," said Republican consultant Roger Stone. "Many Americans will find the three things offensive. Barack Obama is out of the McGovern wing of the party, and he is part of the blame America first crowd."

Opponents of Sen. John Kerry proved in the 2004 election that voters are sensitive to suggestions that a candidate is not sufficiently patriotic. The Democratic presidential nominee's campaign was torpedoed by critics of his Vietnam War record called the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, even though he won multiple military honors and was lauded by his superiors.

The Swift Boat campaign started as a relatively small television ad buy that exploded into an issue that dogged Kerry for months. The Massachusetts senator has conceded since losing to President Bush that the campaign and his lackluster response to unsubstantiated allegations he considered unworthy of a reaction likely cost him the election. And the term even became part of the campaign lexicon _ swift boating.

Obama already is the subject of a shadowy smear campaign based on the Internet that falsely suggests he's a Muslim intent on destroying the United States. Obama is a Christian and has been fighting the e-mail hoax, which also claims he doesn't put his hand over his heart during the Pledge of Allegiance, and he's been trying to correct the misinformation.

[HankB]

Hopefully we can screw the GOP out of an election, unless they steal it with voter fraud like in 2000.

I know I shouldn't respond to this . . . old news and all . . . but with endless manual recounts and the generation of nonexistent Algore votes using nonsense like "dimpled chads" and such, along with the attempt by Dems to take boxes and boxes of ballots into a locked room containing nobody but Dems . . . the obvious fraud wasn't on the part of the GOP.

Dems typically accuse their opponents of the shady stuff they - the Dems - are doing themselves. And with media the likes of ABCNBCCBSCNNMSNBC, it usually works. 

[Bigjake]

Why would you assume that a power-addicted woman who has shaped her entire life around this goal will go gracefully, and not burn down the party on her way out?

This is MY biggest hope for this election.  The outcome isn't going to be good no matter who wins, so we might as well be entertained.  I'm hoping Obamarama ding dong can get her back into shrill/screechy/ I'M MADDER THAN HELL AND NOT GONNA TAKE IT ANYMORE mode....


Added, since the radio is doing a 90's weekend, Obama's little cult seems similar to the same pseudo-religious fervor of a Creed concert.  No, I've never been to one.

[Manedwolf]

Why would you assume that a power-addicted woman who has shaped her entire life around this goal will go gracefully, and not burn down the party on her way out?

This is MY biggest hope for this election.  The outcome isn't going to be good no matter who wins, so we might as well be entertained.  I'm hoping Obamarama ding dong can get her back into shrill/screechy/ I'M MADDER THAN HELL AND NOT GONNA TAKE IT ANYMORE mode....


Added, since the radio is doing a 90's weekend, Obama's little cult seems similar to the same pseudo-religious fervor of a Creed concert.  No, I've never been to one.

He got applause at a speech for blowing his nose.

[Bigjake]

Most sensible noise he's made to date, maybe his minions are coming around.   

[Paddy]

Lotta wishful thinking.  What did Nader get last time?  Something like 0.4% of the vote?   And you people are hoping he'll split the Dem vote so McCain can get elected?

Pitiful.

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

Riley is right on this one.  Ralph Nader's campaign will fail so miserably that it'll make Ron Paul's campaign look good by comparison.  Nader won't affect the results any.

[Bogie]

The Democrats are _really_ hoping that they're going to be able to fragment the Republican vote by 5-6%, from folks being encouraged to write in folks like Fred or Huck or He Who Should Not Be Named.
 

[De Selby]

The Democrats are _really_ hoping that they're going to be able to fragment the Republican vote by 5-6%, from folks being encouraged to write in folks like Fred or Huck or He Who Should Not Be Named.
 

Look at the polls and look at the candidates.  They don't need a third party on the other side to win.

The past 8 years have really, really trashed the conservative engine that got going in the 90's.

[Perd Hapley]

Nader will be a non-starter.  Democrats are stupid, but they learned their lesson in 2000. 

[De Selby]

Nader will be a non-starter.  Democrats are stupid, but they learned their lesson in 2000. 

About that one anyway-they sure didn't learn the lesson about running lackluster candidates with poor campaign skills....see 2004

[Strings]

I don't think you can point to '04 as proof that the Dems "didn't learn the lesson about running lackluster candidates with poor campaign skills". Personally, I really think '04 was a throw-away, with the intention of running Hillary this go-round. Obama, I'm kinda thinking, was an unseen possibility.

 It wouldn't suprise me in the slightest if Hillary destroyed the Democrats on her way out after loosing the nomination (not saying it WILL happen, but rather that it MIGHT VERY WELL happen)...

[Pew pew pew]

I don't think you can point to '04 as proof that the Dems "didn't learn the lesson about running lackluster candidates with poor campaign skills". Personally, I really think '04 was a throw-away, with the intention of running Hillary this go-round. Obama, I'm kinda thinking, was an unseen possibility.

 It wouldn't suprise me in the slightest if Hillary destroyed the Democrats on her way out after loosing the nomination (not saying it WILL happen, but rather that it MIGHT VERY WELL happen)...

The only thing a Hillary implosion would do at this point is galvanize Obama's support. People may prefer Hillary over Obama at this point - Lord knows why - but if she were to throw a tantrum that would simply solidify Obama's position.

[seeker_two]

Nader will be a non-starter.  Democrats are stupid, but they learned their lesson in 2000. 

Nader doesn't stand a chance. I'd be suprised if he gets as much press as Ron Paul in the next six months....

[Manedwolf]

I don't think you can point to '04 as proof that the Dems "didn't learn the lesson about running lackluster candidates with poor campaign skills". Personally, I really think '04 was a throw-away, with the intention of running Hillary this go-round. Obama, I'm kinda thinking, was an unseen possibility.

 It wouldn't suprise me in the slightest if Hillary destroyed the Democrats on her way out after loosing the nomination (not saying it WILL happen, but rather that it MIGHT VERY WELL happen)...

The only thing a Hillary implosion would do at this point is galvanize Obama's support. People may prefer Hillary over Obama at this point - Lord knows why - but if she were to throw a tantrum that would simply solidify Obama's position.

And what if her people dig up the dealer Obama bought his nose candy from when he was younger?