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This was uncomfortably close [A rocket fell a block away from me]
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Author Topic: This was uncomfortably close [A rocket fell a block away from me]  (Read 75958 times)
MicroBalrog
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« on: January 05, 2009, 06:39:23 AM »

So I was coming home from college today and saw my entire street blocked off police, firefighters, Army troops, the works. Naturally, I assumed that a rocket fell on my street and asked one of the soldiers where it hit and was told it hit a 'kindergarten', with the guy pointing in the vague direction of my house. Nobody was injured, he said.

There is a kindergarten literally in front of my house. I assumed immediately this was the one hit and started making my way past the cops, spectators, and TV crews, while frenziedly calling all the house phones, trying to get to my father I realized he wasn't directly injured, but I feared he might have had heart problems due to the events.

By the time I got closer to the end of the street Mom reached Dad's spare cell and it turned out he had slept right through the whole thing and the rocket hit a different kindergarten a block away. It was empty all of them are so there  were only ten people in psychological shock.

Given I know 2swap will be reading this:

Everybody in my family is perfectly safe and sound. All is good.
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner
Manedwolf
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« Reply #1 on: January 05, 2009, 06:43:49 AM »

Any reason you can't take a vacation with the whole family to a city further off?

Stay safe, and NOW do you see why some of us are saying "This has to end now"? That this is a case where, in war, you have to destroy the enemy completely, whatever it takes, or it will never, ever, ever, EVER end for what's happening to your neighbors? Yes, it will be ugly. Yes, there will be collateral damage. That happens in war. It happened in WWII, and it was necessary when it happened. It is not pretty. But it is reality.

Because otherwise, there will be a "cease fire".

And Hamas will fire more rockets at you.

And then they will call for a "cease fire".

And then they will fire more rockets at you.

Ad infinitum.
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RevDisk
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« Reply #2 on: January 05, 2009, 06:46:41 AM »


Glad you're alright.  Do what you need to do.   Stay safe if possible. 

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MicroBalrog
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« Reply #3 on: January 05, 2009, 06:48:14 AM »

Quote
Any reason you can't take a vacation with the whole family to a city further off?

How will we pay for it? Why should we move out?

Because of rockets that fail to hit the city most of the time and are less likely to kill us, statistically, than traffic accidents?

Quote
Stay safe, and NOW do you see why some of us are saying "This has to end now"?

I've never said otherwise. But our enemy is Hamas. We need to break their back. Not 'the Palestinians' as an entity. Hamas needs to die.

The Palestinians have a right to nothing less than full and complete national independence. This is not a leftist position.

It is possible for me to advocate the total, complete, and utter annihilation of Hamas while supporting the right of the Palestinian people for self-determination.
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner
Manedwolf
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« Reply #4 on: January 05, 2009, 06:51:21 AM »

How will we pay for it? Why should we move out?

Because of rockets that fail to hit the city most of the time and are less likely to kill us, statistically, than traffic accidents?

I've never said otherwise. But our enemy is Hamas. We need to break their back. Not 'the Palestinians' as an entity. Hamas needs to die.

The Palestinians have a right to nothing less than full and complete national independence. This is not a leftist position.

It is possible for me to advocate the total, complete, and utter annihilation of Hamas while supporting the right of the Palestinian people for self-determination.

Except that at this juncture, trying to separate Hamas from the Palis is like trying to eat soup with a knife. Which is unfortunate, but that's precisely their strategy.
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MicroBalrog
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« Reply #5 on: January 05, 2009, 07:56:22 AM »

According to the UN and various NGOs, only about 25% of the Palestinian casualties are civlians. So the army seems to be doing a good job 'separating' them.
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner
Nitrogen
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« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2009, 08:51:20 AM »

According to the UN and various NGOs, only about 25% of the Palestinian casualties are civlians. So the army seems to be doing a good job 'separating' them.

Well, if you were following the news here in the US (why the heck would you) You'd think you were slaughtering civillians left and right.

if the UN estimates the civilian causalities at 25%, they are probably closer to 15%-20%...
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Tallpine
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2009, 08:54:38 AM »

Well, look at the bright side: chances are another rocket won't hit in your neighborhood Wink
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Manedwolf
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« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2009, 11:14:12 AM »

Well, look at the bright side: chances are another rocket won't hit in your neighborhood Wink

Actually, I'd be worried that it would. They know they hit a kindergarten and in a residential neighborhood, good target for them. If that launch site didn't get creamed by now, they can just use the same numbers.
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MicroBalrog
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« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2009, 11:15:19 AM »

Actually, I'd be worried that it would. They know they hit a kindergarten and in a residential neighborhood, good target for them. If that launch site didn't get creamed by now, they can just use the same numbers.

Remember they miss something like 60% of their shots.
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

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bk425
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« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2009, 11:19:09 AM »

Remember they miss something like 60% of their shots.
You don't take -comfort- from that do you? I guess I shouldn't be asking questions like that of a guy having to survive in (essentially) a war zone... no additional discomfort intended on my part. But I sure wouldn't be re assured if someone was bombing my living area but missing 40% of the time. -B
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Manedwolf
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« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2009, 11:20:06 AM »

Remember they miss something like 60% of their shots.

Yeah, I know, but if they know that rocket hit there, they can just fire another with the same azimuth and elevation if the launcher is still in the same place, and unless wind speed and direction changed dramatically, or the rockets vary greatly, it'll come down in relatively the same area.

The absolute worst thing to have happen when targeted by artillery is for one round to miss in front of you, and then the next round to miss behind you.
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MicroBalrog
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« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2009, 11:22:58 AM »

Quote
You don't take -comfort- from that do you?

They miss the CITIES they're aiming at 60% of the time.

10% of the time, they miss the COUNTRY they're aiming at.

Quote
but if they know that rocket hit ther

I'm not sure they know that. I mean. Say you're a Palestinian artilleryman. You fire a rocket. Another guy like you fires two more. You can't communicate. But you DO know one rocket - maybe yours, maybe the other guy's - hit a kindergarten. Was your aim correct? How can you know?
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner
Manedwolf
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« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2009, 11:24:49 AM »

They miss the CITIES they're aiming at 60% of the time.

10% of the time, they miss the COUNTRY they're aiming at.

I'm not sure they know that. I mean. Say you're a Palestinian artilleryman. You fire a rocket. Another guy like you fires two more. You can't communicate. But you DO know one rocket - maybe yours, maybe the other guy's - hit a kindergarten. Was your aim correct? How can you know?

This is true. They'd have to be relatively organized. But all they have to do is have CNN on to know exactly when and where it hit. CNN is Hamas' artillery spotter, now. Since they ought to know the approximate flight duration of each rocket, they can work backwards from there.

Assuming someone is actually that aware of things. But all it takes is a stopwatch and a TV. Fire...wait, wait..."We've just received word that a rocket has hit in Ashdod..." Bingo.
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MicroBalrog
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« Reply #14 on: January 05, 2009, 11:29:27 AM »

Mind, the Israeli government prohibits publishing exact locations more accurate than the nearest city.

But if you live in Ashdod, rumours about the locations will... err, spread.
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

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roo_ster
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« Reply #15 on: January 05, 2009, 11:40:21 AM »

They miss the CITIES they're aiming at 60% of the time.

10% of the time, they miss the COUNTRY they're aiming at.

I'm not sure they know that. I mean. Say you're a Palestinian artilleryman. You fire a rocket. Another guy like you fires two more. You can't communicate. But you DO know one rocket - maybe yours, maybe the other guy's - hit a kindergarten. Was your aim correct? How can you know?

Why would you assume the bold face text?

Anyone with a cell phone or internet connection (email, blog posting, text message, voice, twitter) can be your forward observer. Toss in a cheap GPS and a compass and you could increase your effectiveness quite a bit. 
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BrokenPaw
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« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2009, 11:51:22 AM »

Anyone with a cell phone or internet connection (email, blog posting, text message, voice, twitter) can be your forward observer. Toss in a cheap GPS and a compass and you could increase your effectiveness quite a bit. 

I'd sure hate to be the forward observer for a battery that had the on-target rates that MicroBalrog quoted.  With a circle of ambiguity for any given shot that's measured in cities, pretty much any forward observation post has as much chance of being hit as any spot it can report on.

It'd end up feeling like this poor guy:


-BP
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Seek out wisdom in books, rare manuscripts, and cryptic poems if you will, but seek it also in simple stones and fragile herbs and in the cries of wild birds. Listen to the song of the wind and the roar of water if you would discover magic, for it is here that the old secrets are still preserved.
Manedwolf
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« Reply #17 on: January 05, 2009, 11:52:16 AM »

I'd sure hate to be the forward observer for a battery that had the on-target rates that MicroBalrog quoted.  With a circle of ambiguity for any given shot that's measured in cities, pretty much any forward observation post has as much chance of being hit as any spot it can report on.

It'd end up feeling like this poor guy:


-BP

Remember, they WANT to die. They think that if a rocket hits them as it kills Israelis, they'll go to paradise and get virgins.
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MicroBalrog
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« Reply #18 on: January 05, 2009, 11:57:56 AM »

Quote
Why would you assume the bold face text?

Because the Army cut off Hamas' internal lines of communication? Because Gaza has no electricity or phones anymore?

Quote
They think that if a rocket hits them as it kills Israelis, they'll go to paradise and get virgins.

Under the Hadith, a righteous man who falls off his camel in peacetime gets virgins.
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner
Manedwolf
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« Reply #19 on: January 05, 2009, 12:09:19 PM »

Because the Army cut off Hamas' internal lines of communication? Because Gaza has no electricity or phones anymore?

You mean...the CELLPHONES?
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MicroBalrog
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« Reply #20 on: January 05, 2009, 12:12:48 PM »

You mean...the CELLPHONES?

What cellphones? Provided by whom? With antennae powered by what?
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner
BrokenPaw
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« Reply #21 on: January 05, 2009, 12:24:04 PM »

Remember, they WANT to die. They think that if a rocket hits them as it kills Israelis, they'll go to paradise and get virgins.

Yes, well.  There is that.

Never understood the appeal, really.  One was enough.  Seventy two?  Not so much.

-BP
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Seek out wisdom in books, rare manuscripts, and cryptic poems if you will, but seek it also in simple stones and fragile herbs and in the cries of wild birds. Listen to the song of the wind and the roar of water if you would discover magic, for it is here that the old secrets are still preserved.
Manedwolf
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« Reply #22 on: January 05, 2009, 12:28:18 PM »

What cellphones? Provided by whom? With antennae powered by what?

Oh, you're kidding, right?

Good god, even the Somali fighters had cellphones they used to report American movements to the ambushers in Mogadishu. There's prepaid, paid for by foreign contacts, all sorts. Unless they kill all your towers, too, they've got a signal.

Powered? By car lighter plugs, by whatever?

The insurgents in Iraq have cellphones, too, and use them for everything from contacts to setting off IEDs by dialing the phone and letting the ring activate a relay.
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MicroBalrog
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« Reply #23 on: January 05, 2009, 12:44:19 PM »

Quote
Good god, even the Somali fighters had cellphones they used to report American movements to the ambushers in Mogadishu. There's prepaid, paid for by foreign contacts, all sorts. Unless they kill all your towers, too, they've got a signal.

Mogadishu has one of the most extensive telecom network in Africa. There are huge economic reports about how they manage to have quality bandwidth in such a shithole. In the meanwhile Gaza has now reverted to the stone age. They have no cellphone towers, no power outside generators. The Army says they can't communicate. Now maybe you're right and they can.

But the ineptness of Palestinians is COSMIC. These are the people who fire AKs by holding them high over head and pointing them in the vague direction of the enemy.
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Destroy The Enemy in Hand-to-Hand Combat.

"...tradition and custom becomes intertwined and are a strong coercion which directs the society upon fixed lines, and strangles liberty. " ~ William Graham Sumner
Manedwolf
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« Reply #24 on: January 05, 2009, 12:54:50 PM »

Mogadishu has one of the most extensive telecom network in Africa. There are huge economic reports about how they manage to have quality bandwidth in such a shithole. In the meanwhile Gaza has now reverted to the stone age. They have no cellphone towers, no power outside generators. The Army says they can't communicate. Now maybe you're right and they can.

But the ineptness of Palestinians is COSMIC. These are the people who fire AKs by holding them high over head and pointing them in the vague direction of the enemy.

You have cellphone towers, don't you? The towns in Israel a few miles from the border have cellphone towers, don't they?

Ever seen one of these?



They're made in China. You can buy them anywhere, including Iran, Egypt, anywhere.
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