APS Prediction Thread, April 2011 through April 2012

[MicroBalrog]

Okay, this has been done before. We've given our political and economic predictions for the coming year.

Now, for the record, here are my predictions for the coming year:

1. No major successes will have been made by the Congressional GOP in cutting budgets. They will compromise down from their 100-billion-dollar cut compromise.

2. Violent crime rates will continue to fall in the United States, and more expansions of gun rights on the state level will be seen.

3. The third world will see a continued reduction in the rates of contagious disease, especially malaria.

4. More Arab regimes will fall. The Khaliphate will not come into being. Possibly, one or more Arab states will develop a fledgling democracy.

5. The Putin regime in Russia will continue facing tensions within the Putin-Medvedev tandem, and it's possible one or more sides will introduce further economic liberalization, and maybe even political liberalization as a result.

[MechAg94]

The govt will be shut down.  The media will try to blame Republicans because they passed a budget bill that the Democrats didn't like.

[kgbsquirrel]

Thread tagged for future reading. (Wish we could tag a thread without having to clutter them with useless replies.)

[AZRedhawk44]

4. More Arab regimes will fall. The Khaliphate will not come into being. Possibly, one or more Arab states will develop a fledgling democracy.

Very up-beat and interesting.  I wish I had more faith in the ME to seek freedom.  I expect any fledgling democracy over there to quickly get hijacked by either the Muslim Brotherhood or Hezbollah.


My predictions:

1.  Somebody that all of flyover America identifies with and respects will get arrested on trumped up "terrorism" charges.
2.  TSA will start highway interdiction operations by the end of 2011.
3.  Iran will start a conflict with Israel, and Obama will keep the US out of it (unless it affects our troops in Iraq or A-stan).
4.  Europe and the UK will start fixing their immigration and cultural imbalance issues.
5.  The Euro will fall closer in parity to the US dollar.
6.  The US economy will begin to recover, mostly because business-America is tired of waiting for Obama to stop screwing up and they're getting ready to gamble on success in spite of his policies.
7.  The GOP POTUS candidates emerging this fall will all suck.

[makattak]

1. Gas will hit $5 per gallon sometime before summer. (Easy bet, thank you California.)
2. Inflation in food prices will continue unabated. (Probably accelerated.)
3. Consumer confidence will fall further.
4. Gains in Unemployment will falter (unless the government starts fudging the numbers. Gallop and BLS are getting further apart these days...)
5. Government will shut down. Probably not immediately, but over the 2012 budget.
6. Cubs will not win the world series.
7. Lions will not win the Super Bowl.

(There, I'm assured of two predictions being correct, at least.)

[vaskidmark]

1. Gas will hit $5 per gallon sometime before summer. (Easy bet, thank you California.)
2. Inflation in food prices will continue unabated. (Probably accelerated.)
3. Consumer confidence will fall further.
4. Gains in Unemployment will falter (unless the government starts fudging the numbers. Gallop and BLS are getting further apart these days...)
5. Government will shut down. Probably not immediately, but over the 2012 budget.
6. Cubs will not win the world series.
7. Lions will not win the Super Bowl.

(There, I'm assured of two predictions being correct, at least.)

See, those ^ are predictions - at least some of them are.  There is some degree of chance involved  in at least #s 6 & 7.  As opposed to MB's 7 sure things.

stay safe.

[MicroBalrog]

Well, I have tried predictions to be such that they can be either proven true or false by events.

Makattack's consumer confidence prediction is also an example of what I consider to be a good prediction, since it can can be falsified - the Consumer Confidence Index from March 2011 stands at 63.40. We can compare it to the Consumer Confidence Index for March 2011 when we get there.

Unemployment can be also checked by an objective measure.

[Scout26]

Without looking at anyone else's:

1.  Illinois will get Concealed Carry/RTC and the Dems will have a "OMG!!!  Who Farted ??"  look on their faces after it passes the legislature and sits on Quinn's desk for the 60 days to becomes law.  Much finger pointing will ensue,  but nothing significant done to repeal it.  We might even beat Wisconsin.

2.  The cracks in Obamacare will cause the entire edifice to come crashing down. 

3.  Things in ME get dicey.  There will be fits and starts as parliamentary democracy becomes the rage.  The will of the people will be heard there.  In some ways we like; in others, not so much.

4.  Can you say "Double Dip Recession"?  I knew you could.  Inflation also starts to climb.

5.  We'll complete the pullout of Iraq, just in time to help the "rebels" in Libya. 

6.  The UN will continue to guide our Foreign Policy.

7.  Hillary resigns and announces her run for President.

8.  *expletive deleted*it will get worse, except for the stuff that gets better.

9.  I'll continue to harass and annoy from the green side of the sod.

10.  It will all be Fistful's fault.
   

[Jamisjockey]

Thread tagged for future reading. (Wish we could tag a thread without having to clutter them with useless replies.)

You can. At the top of the thread, there is a button that says "notify".   Click on that.


By April 2012, we'll have boots on the ground in significant numbers (more than just a standard humanitarian relief force) in either another Arab or an African nation. 

The GOP front runners will be RINOs like Mitt. The only thing that will save us would be serious infighting for the DNC nomination between Hillary and Barry.
 

[Nick1911]

The world is going to end.  On May 21, 2011, specifically.

Hey, I saw it on the side of a box truck.  Box trucks haven't ever lied to me before!

[Pharmacology]

Very up-beat and interesting.  I wish I had more faith in the ME to seek freedom.  I expect any fledgling democracy over there to quickly get hijacked by either the Muslim Brotherhood or Hezbollah.


My predictions:

1.  Somebody that all of flyover America identifies with and respects will get arrested on trumped up "terrorism" charges.
2.  TSA will start highway interdiction operations by the end of 2011.
3.  Iran will start a conflict with Israel, and Obama will keep the US out of it (unless it affects our troops in Iraq or A-stan).
4.  Europe and the UK will start fixing their immigration and cultural imbalance issues.
5.  The Euro will fall closer in parity to the US dollar.
6.  The US economy will begin to recover, mostly because business-America is tired of waiting for Obama to stop screwing up and they're getting ready to gamble on success in spite of his policies.
7.  The GOP POTUS candidates emerging this fall will all suck.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzYRvaD-xkQ


1.)  Campus Carry will pass in TX, and I'll  only get to enjoy 1.5 semesters of it. >:(

2.) Yemen and Ghadafi form a super tag team

[longeyes]

The world already ended.  The internet is heaven.  Congratulations, you made it.

[makattak]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110416/ap_on_bi_ge/us_gas_prices

$4 per gallon. And summer blends (and their necessarily higher prices) don't kick in until June 1.

I'm feeling pretty confident about my $5 prediction right now. Unfortunately, I'm not feeling especially confident about the economy surviving this summer with that gas price...

I'll update this before summer.

[Battle Monkey of Zardoz]

1.  Obama will be challenged in a democrat primary

2. Obama will attempt to ban firearms.

3.  The ME will have fits, lulls, more fits, a big lull and then go ape *expletive deleted*it.

4.  The tea party will grow, form a 3rd party, if not in name, but sheer numbers that can shut down legislation being passed.

5.  A republican will be president in 2012.

6. The folks not paying any federal income tax will top 55% and the rumblings will begin and the folks carrying the load will get mean.

7. The govt will shut down. And finger pointing will be towards the democrats due to promises not kept from the 06 and 08 elections.

[charby]

1. Corn will be less than $4 a bushel
2. Gas at the pump will drop to $2.25 a gallon
3. Gold will be less than $1000 an ounce
4. Oil will be around $45 a barrel because Saudi will flood the market to get money for entitlements to stave off a civil war.
5. Obama will drop to 19% approval rating
6. Dow Jones will correct to 10500 pts
7. Another Major Earthquake somewhere on the Pacific rim
8. No major hurricanes hits the ConUS but does hit a Caribbean nation/protectorate.
9. EPA steps in and goes after the upper Midwestern states for non point source pollution


Speculative

1. A deep major oil formation found somewhere along the mid continental riff.
2. Russia Finds a large oil field in the polar region
3. A solution for mass production of Butanol is discovered, lignin and hemicellulose is able to be broken down easily.

[RoadKingLarry]

Some things will get worse.

Some things will get better.

We'll all get a little older. (well. most of us anyway)

[Pharmacology]

2. Russia Finds a large oil field in the polar region

Don't they already have a buttload of rigs in the ice zones rolling at full capacity?

[charby]

Don't they already have a buttload of rigs in the ice zones rolling at full capacity?

They have drilled 80 some wells, mostly dry. They did hit oil this spring guessing 150-250 million barrels.

I'm hoping they hit a 50-60 billion barrel field.

[Pharmacology]

iiiinteresting

[grampster]

What Charby said.

[Hutch]

Yeah, but WHAT did Charby say?

As best I can tease out of Wikipedia, Charby thinks (I think) that we can grow our own fuel.

[never_retreat]

The world is going to end.  On May 21, 2011, specifically.

Hey, I saw it on the side of a box truck.  Box trucks haven't ever lied to me before!

I don't know about that.

[makattak]

1. Gas will hit $5 per gallon sometime before summer. (Easy bet, thank you California.)
2. Inflation in food prices will continue unabated. (Probably accelerated.)
3. Consumer confidence will fall further.
4. Gains in Unemployment will falter (unless the government starts fudging the numbers. Gallop and BLS are getting further apart these days...)
5. Government will shut down. Probably not immediately, but over the 2012 budget.
6. Cubs will not win the world series.
7. Lions will not win the Super Bowl.

(There, I'm assured of two predictions being correct, at least.)

It's now summer. One wrong so far. The rest are still looking pretty good, (although I'm far less confident about the government shutting down. Apparently the results of the budget fight of the 90's has really frightened the Republicans.)

[Perd Hapley]

The world already ended.  The internet is heaven.  Congratulations, you made it.

Then I want my soul back.

[longeyes]

Did you save your ticket?  You know the rule: No tickee...