We still need pilots.

[Fly320s]

I started this thread last year talking about the pilot shortage:  http://www.armedpolitesociety.com/index.php?topic=50991.0

I'm in my recurrent training session again and according to our recruiting department we will not have any qualified applicants in 4 years.  We have seen a steady decline in applicants for the last four years.  Other airlines are having the same problem.  Pay is going up everywhere.  The regional airlines are handing out big starting and retention bonuses.

So, if you want to fly planes for a living, start training now.  If you're lucky, in 4 years you could be flying with me and mocking JamisJockey on the radio.

[MillCreek]

I always thought there was a steady pipeline of pilots leaving the military to go fly commercially.  What has happened to that?

[BobR]

I always thought there was a steady pipeline of pilots leaving the military to go fly commercially.  What has happened to that?

Downsizing of the military. Lack of operational aircraft that are airworthy means less hours. Higher retention bonuses for the military pilots they do have = less leaving the service after their first or second tour. Those are my SWAGs.

bob

[Ben]

Fly320s, wasn't there in the last few years a reduction for max age? Did that have a big effect on numbers?  I wonder if they'll consider increasing age again if they get a shortage?

[RevDisk]

Last time I looked into it, it looked like a bad wager unless you're a military pilot. Starting pay isn't great, building hours on your own dime is expensive and you're always once bounced physical away from the unemployment line. Virtually no airlines last I looked had training programs, relying on the mil pipeline. So, it's entirely possible to get an insanely huge amount of debt and then be downchecked at any second due to high blood pressure or whatnot. I doubt you'd get a refund on all that debt and flight hours.

Bob hit the nail on the head.

[Boomhauer]

The airlines created their bed let them lie in it

[wmenorr67]

Besides the "regional" carriers, working in the private sector is more lucrative pay wise and even better hours.

Woman I used to work with, her son started out flying for a doctor and now is flying for some other type of businessman and his company.  Started out making more money than his friends who went to work for airlines and such and has better benefits and work schedule.

[Firethorn]

You mentioned pay going up "everywhere".  I figure that sooner or later, that will start drawing people in, or airlines will have to bite the bullet and realize that they'll need to train their own pilots.  Perhaps get with the other airlines and offer generous scholarships.  Etc...

It's the nature of an 'efficient' economy to always be running just short of a shortage.  If you have excess capacity, you're overpaying.

[KD5NRH]

It's the nature of an 'efficient' economy to always be running just short of a shortage.  If you have excess capacity, you're overpaying.

Trouble comes in determining what is "excess" and what is "safety margin" when you're talking about a mission critical resource.

[Fly320s]

I always thought there was a steady pipeline of pilots leaving the military to go fly commercially.  What has happened to that?

Downsizing and drones.

[Fly320s]

Fly320s, wasn't there in the last few years a reduction for max age? Did that have a big effect on numbers?  I wonder if they'll consider increasing age again if they get a shortage?

No.  The mandatory retirement age went up from 60 to 65.  That helped delay the shortage for a few years.

[Fly320s]

Last time I looked into it, it looked like a bad wager unless you're a military pilot. Starting pay isn't great, building hours on your own dime is expensive and you're always once bounced physical away from the unemployment line. Virtually no airlines last I looked had training programs, relying on the mil pipeline. So, it's entirely possible to get an insanely huge amount of debt and then be downchecked at any second due to high blood pressure or whatnot. I doubt you'd get a refund on all that debt and flight hours.

Bob hit the nail on the head.

Yes, training is expensive, but a person only needs to pay for the first 250-300 hours.  After that, companies will pay you if you can get hired.  That 250 hours can be done in a year if you put your mind to it.

[KD5NRH]

Downsizing and drones.

There's an idea; we'll just have groups of remote pilots at each airport to handle takeoffs and landings, and the majority of the flight can be fully automated.

[BobR]

^^^^

If it wasn't for the perceived reluctance of the flying public to fly without a pilot this could have already been put in place.

bob

[Ben]

No.  The mandatory retirement age went up from 60 to 65.  That helped delay the shortage for a few years.

Ah, okay. I got it bass akwards as usual. :)

[zahc]

The airlines created their bed let them lie in it

qft; applies to many industries and organizations that forget or take for granted the human capital that keeps them running.

[Boomhauer]

250 hours at $140 an hour = $35000. Quite a steep outlay.

And that's prolly low considering that's a single engine price.

[AmbulanceDriver]

Kinda funny...  I was reading something online (can't remember what now) and there was a yuuuuuge ad for Horizon, offering a $10,000 recruitment bonus for pilot candidates.   And then come here and find this....

[RoadKingLarry]

I can see it now. H1B visas for pilots.

[Fly320s]

250 hours at $140 an hour = $35000. Quite a steep outlay.

And that's prolly low considering that's a single engine price.

Probably more like $70,000.  Yeah it is expensive.  Is it more expensive than a college degree?  Depends on the degree, but most degrees don't give a person specialized training.

$70k is in the price area of a nice new car.  How long do people keep their cars these days?

Most regionals are paying close to $50k in salary and bonuses for new hire pilots.  That is a pretty quick ROI.

[MechAg94]

$70K is a luxury car, not just a nice car.  Most people don't spend near that much for nice cars.

Starting pay for process operators at chemical plants is near that same pay.  Certainly gets higher than that with experience.  What is the top end for airline pilots with say 10 years experience?  Just curious where you can go from there. 

I used to know an engineer who worked for my company.  He took a job with Boeing and moved to Seattle.  Last time I talked to him, he had quit that (not many nice things to say about Boeing).  He was in town to get simulator hours to train to be an airline pilot.  I lost track of him since then. 

[sumpnz]

At the end of the day I'm kind of glad I didn't go the commercial pilot route and did engineering instead.

[Jamisjockey]

I can see it now. H1B visas for pilots.

I talk to pilots all day long, and an increasing number of them have various accents. 

[KD5NRH]

$70K is a luxury car, not just a nice car.

Or 100-130 of my last few cars.  (Not necessarily a bad idea; I could then handle it like a New York reload whenever something breaks.  New York repair job?)

[Fly320s]

What is the top end for airline pilots with say 10 years experience?  Just curious where you can go from there. 

About $220k/yr for a captain and around $150k for FOs depending on equipment.  Most airline pay scales top out at 12 years, but there are still COLA raises after that.

One thing you might not realize is that $220k/yr is based on roughly 15 days/month of work.