Author Topic: Moar .gov doublespeak  (Read 7398 times)

mtnbkr

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #25 on: February 13, 2017, 12:42:46 PM »
It's not doublespeak to say there is no risk at this current time, but prepare for worst case scenario. Best of luck to the engineers involved.

It's doublespeak when the gov says, don'tchaknow?

Of course, any of us would make similar statements, but that's different.

Chris

Hawkmoon

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2017, 12:51:55 PM »
Am I correct in that this is the first time the reservoir has been full since it's completion in '68 or 9? This spillways failed the first time they were needed?

The dam and reservoir are fifty years old. This is the first time the water level has risen above the top of the emergency spillway. Twelve YEARS ago concerns were raised about the adequacy of the emergency spillway, and both state and federal agencies said it was safe. In fact, the Army Corps of Engineers said it was good for 350,000 cfs of flow. At the peak on this incident, it was flowing about 12,000 cfs and they had to dump more water through the primary spillway because the emergency spillway was in danger of failing.

http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/12/oroville-dam-feds-and-state-officials-ignored-warnings-12-years-ago/

Let's see -- twelve years ago, who was President? YES! IT'S BUSH'S FAULT.
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K Frame

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2017, 01:09:36 PM »
But then due to memory effect you'll get reduced overall capacity.

No, due to memory effect I'll end up with a 4 year old can of stale maple syrup gasoline in the basement.
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KD5NRH

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2017, 01:13:48 PM »
In fact, the Army Corps of Engineers said it was good for 350,000 cfs of flow.

There you go; CoE isn't supposed to be in the business of making stuff safe beyond the end of the current conflict.  Put them back to building fortifications and finding better ways to blow up our enemies' dams.


KD5NRH

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #29 on: February 13, 2017, 01:14:38 PM »
No, due to memory effect I'll end up with a 4 year old can of stale maple syrup gasoline in the basement.

Sell it on eBay as vintage fuel.

230RN

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #30 on: February 13, 2017, 06:47:58 PM »
https://youtu.be/_6AvEZO34xI

Note the name of the engineer involved.  The dam burst the day after he visited it and said everything was OK.

More examples abound:

https://youtu.be/cdOGPBnfoKE

« Last Edit: February 13, 2017, 07:00:54 PM by 230RN »

Hawkmoon

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #31 on: February 14, 2017, 06:06:04 PM »
If it's not doublespeak, it's outright incompetence.

Quote
Officials defended their decision to issue the hasty order to abandon homes downstream from the nation's tallest dam, about 150 miles northeast of San Francisco. They said it was necessary for public safety after engineers spotted a hole in an emergency spillway, which they feared could have failed within an hour.


...

The acting head of the state's Department of Water Resources said he did not know if anything had gone wrong and was unaware of a 2005 report that recommended reinforcing the earthen emergency spillway with concrete for just such an event. The spillway had never been used in the dam's nearly 50 years of operation, and it was not near capacity when it began to fail.

"I'm not sure anything went wrong," Bill Croyle said. "This was a new, never-having-happened-before event."

Let's see ... an "emergency" spillway that a decade ago your agency said could handle 350,000 cfs was flowing maybe 12,000 cfs, had a hole in it, and was within a hour of failing ... and you're not sure anything went wrong? You're in the wrong job.
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K Frame

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #32 on: February 15, 2017, 06:29:03 AM »
Not knowing at all what happened in this case, but sometimes defects show up when a system is stressed that are not apparent to any kind of non-invasive inspection.

And, sometimes, there are no defects in a system, but a seemingly minor outside change stresses the system in ways that were never expected.

It will be interesting to see the forensic report on the cause of the failure.
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230RN

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #33 on: February 15, 2017, 07:37:36 AM »
I've been digging around a little bit and I think I clarified in my own mind what's going on.

1.  It appears that the weakest point in dams is usually at the sides, where it "attaches" to the surrounding geology.

2.  Typically, this surrounding geology is earth rather than solid rock.  Essentially, not to be flip about it, you have a concrete dam surrounded by two earthen dams.

3.  In this case, it is not the emergency spillway which is the immediate problem, it's the regular concrete-lined spillway which broke, resulting in the "crater."  I think this is a point of confusion in some of these posts.

4,  Water rushing into this crater and roiling around in there is washing away the earth and rocks around the sides of the dam, thus possibly weakening it.  I think I've seen some rather large boulders being thrown out by the water at that point.

5.  The "emergency" spillway is not concrete lined.

6.  If they have to go to the emergency spillway (earth-lined) there are at least three dangers involved.

    a.  this will increase the erosion of the earthen "sidewalls" of the dam, further weakening it

    b.  the larger amount of water heading down will flood the levee below the dam, which also protects a fish hatchery there, where "millions" of hatchlings will die

   c.  the larger amount of water heading down will also overflow other levees further downstream which protect those populated areas and infrastructure, hence the evacuations --let alone if the whole thing lets go because of weakening that side of the dam
 
7.    They are dumping material into the "crater" in the concrete spillway to help in slowing the erosion under it.


...

It will be interesting to see the forensic report on the cause of the failure.

I suspect it will be one or more, or all, of the following:

1.  Somebody got stingy with the cement and aggregate mixture applied during construction of the spillway.

2.  Improper compaction of the substrate material under that portion of the concrete of the regular spillway.

3.  An unseen "pipeline" from the storage side of the dam weakened the substrate under the concrete at that point.  Not that the water is that deep at the point of failure, but the dam itself is 770 feet high.   The pressure of water at that depth would be about 360 psi*, and varies linearly with depth.  A "pipeline" in terms of damming water  is a sneaky little tiny leak which gradually gets bigger and bigger.

This is not intended to be "authoritative," but that's the way I understand the situation as of 13-14 February.

Terry, 230RN

*  Quickly obtained from here:

http://www.calctool.org/CALC/other/games/depth_press

I'm not sure if that's for sea or fresh water, but it gives an idea of the magnitudes involved.

      
« Last Edit: February 15, 2017, 08:44:51 AM by 230RN »

Hawkmoon

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #34 on: February 15, 2017, 09:35:44 AM »
Terry -

You're behind the curve. They already allowed water to flow over the emergency spillway. That water did erode the hillside below the spillway, completely washing out the road that ran below it. Then the lip of the spillway began to erode, and a hole appeared. That's what the "experts" decided was within an hour of failing. That was with water flows of between 6,000 and 12,000 cfs over the emergency spillway -- which a decade ago they said was capable of handing 350,000 cfs.

So when the emergency spillway proved to be a liability rather than an asset, they then started allowing more water to flow down the primary spillway, even though it is damaged. They ramped it up from around 80,000 cfs to over 100,000 cfs, managing to draw down the water level to below the lip of the emergency spillway. At last report, though, they want/need to draw it down to at least fifty feet below the emergency spillway elevation to allow room for the next anticipated storm flow to collect.

So, basically, the emergency spillway (which had never been used in the fifty years the dam has been in operation) was completely inadequate, useless, and dangerous.

So, now that California has a huge problem, they want Trump to authorize passing the cost of the repairs on to the rest of us.
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230RN

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #35 on: February 15, 2017, 11:32:09 AM »
OK, thanks.  I was reviewing from vids I saw from earlier in the event.  I stand corrected.

Me:  "...I think I clarified in my own mind..."  I also removed the ??? from it before posting, and added that it was not meant to be authoritative.

Much appreciated, Hawkmoon.

Terry, 230RN


K Frame

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #36 on: February 15, 2017, 11:36:06 AM »
I guess that the lowest bidder who built it didn't use structural bread dough...
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Angel Eyes

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Re: Moar .gov doublespeak
« Reply #37 on: February 15, 2017, 04:46:36 PM »
So, now that California has a huge problem, they want Trump to authorize passing the cost of the repairs on to the rest of us.

I wonder how the #Calexit crowd feels about that.


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