Author Topic: Landing on the Moon again  (Read 2960 times)

MillCreek

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Landing on the Moon again
« on: March 05, 2017, 07:18:06 PM »
My brother-in-law and I were discussing if humans will again land on the Moon and return in our lifetime, bearing in mind that we are in our late 50's.  We both agreed that a return will happen, but differed as to whom will do it.  He thinks it will be privately-funded by an individual or a corporation and I think it will be the People's Republic of China.

What says the Collective?  Will it be Bezos/Musk/Branson/etc., the heirs of Mao or another entity?  I honestly do not think it will be the USA.
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Hawkmoon

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2017, 08:09:28 PM »
My vote goes to China.
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lee n. field

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2017, 08:19:30 PM »
I think private.
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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2017, 08:26:23 PM »
My brother-in-law and I were discussing if humans will again land on the Moon and return in our lifetime, bearing in mind that we are in our late 50's.  We both agreed that a return will happen, but differed as to whom will do it.  He thinks it will be privately-funded by an individual or a corporation and I think it will be the People's Republic of China.

What says the Collective?  Will it be Bezos/Musk/Branson/etc., the heirs of Mao or another entity?  I honestly do not think it will be the USA.

Eh, I hate to side with NASA, but at our current stage, rovers and probes actually are getting us far more bang for the buck.

That said, we SHOULD be working towards putting folks permanently on Mars and other places in the solar system. Humanity has a binary choice. We either keep all of our population on Earth and eventually die as a species. Or we move part of our population to other planets or solar objects. It's one or the other. I'd prefer Musk or the PRC being on Mars to that.

The US should be leading that development. Instead NASA puts more manhours on social media and other basketweaving than they do on ANYTHING space related. It's not dead, just drastically wrong priorities. And we spend pennies on NASA, so I can understand them not taking themselves seriously. We should do two things. Put every single manager and support entity to a vote by astronauts. More than X votes, they're fired. Y out of Z of the top brass must be astronauts, with the independent authority to squeal to Congress if the non-astronaut brass try to waste too much money or resources on off-mission junk. Tell NASA that they have to use 80% of their budget on space or space applicable R&D. Then raise their budget.

Never happen, of course. There's still thankfully a large number of space junkies and optimists at NASA. But the majority of their administrators are bureaucratic fossils that solely know how to turn food into stacks of useless paperwork.
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Ben

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2017, 08:57:25 PM »
The US should be leading that development. Instead NASA puts more manhours on social media and other basketweaving than they do on ANYTHING space related. It's not dead, just drastically wrong priorities. And we spend pennies on NASA, so I can understand them not taking themselves seriously. We should do two things. Put every single manager and support entity to a vote by astronauts. More than X votes, they're fired. Y out of Z of the top brass must be astronauts, with the independent authority to squeal to Congress if the non-astronaut brass try to waste too much money or resources on off-mission junk. Tell NASA that they have to use 80% of their budget on space or space applicable R&D. Then raise their budget.

Never happen, of course. There's still thankfully a large number of space junkies and optimists at NASA. But the majority of their administrators are bureaucratic fossils that solely know how to turn food into stacks of useless paperwork.

Yeah, all that.

NASA has gotten way in the weeds on "political science" like AGW. They're doing "climate change" instead of climate science. Their mission statement needs to be reworked and narrowed way down to specifically space and atmospheric science.

It's true that robots are probably more efficient for much of what NASA is studying right now, but there is something uplifting about sending humans into space, even if they are less efficient (there's also the case rev mentioned for spreading humanity beyond this planet).

I don't know where Trump stands on NASA, but the whole showmanship thing about humans back on the Moon and on to Mars seems up his alley. Maybe we'll see some funding for humans in space in the next few years.
« Last Edit: March 05, 2017, 09:31:09 PM by Ben »
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freakazoid

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2017, 09:10:54 PM »
Has China been working on sending people to the moon?
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2017, 09:13:24 PM »
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MillCreek

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2017, 09:15:05 PM »
Has China been working on sending people to the moon?

Yes; in the past year, I have read several articles in the business and science press quoting the PRC in laying out a timeline for the PRC space program.  They are aiming for a manned landing in the 2030's.
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Andiron

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #8 on: March 05, 2017, 09:18:25 PM »
Perhaps under the Trump administration we can get NASA away from making friends with islam and back to work doing NASA stuff.
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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #9 on: March 05, 2017, 09:53:18 PM »

.........We either keep all of our population on Earth and eventually die as a species. Or we move part of our population to other planets or solar objects. It's one or the other. ........

I just don't get this train of thought.  If the plan is to move our population to another planet where we, A) can't breathe the air, B) have to work to find water to drink, C) need to bring all tools, equipment for farming, life support, etc with us, and D) need to use massive amounts of the fuel (ironically obtained from the very plant we are leaving) just to get there, it seems like a good way to die as a species.  I've never been to any other planetary body, but I believe the best place we know of in the universe to "start over", IE, make a sustainable habitat from scratch, is right here beneath our feet.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #10 on: March 05, 2017, 10:22:12 PM »
Yes; in the past year, I have read several articles in the business and science press quoting the PRC in laying out a timeline for the PRC space program.  They are aiming for a manned landing in the 2030's.


Ya know, it was bad enough when our cheap consumer goods had to come over from Asia. Now it's going to take even longer.  ;/
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Ben

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #11 on: March 05, 2017, 10:33:02 PM »
I just don't get this train of thought.  If the plan is to move our population to another planet where we, A) can't breathe the air, B) have to work to find water to drink, C) need to bring all tools, equipment for farming, life support, etc with us, and D) need to use massive amounts of the fuel (ironically obtained from the very plant we are leaving) just to get there, it seems like a good way to die as a species.  I've never been to any other planetary body, but I believe the best place we know of in the universe to "start over", IE, make a sustainable habitat from scratch, is right here beneath our feet.

Think of it in millennia, not centuries. :)
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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2017, 10:59:53 PM »
The NORKs did it last week.  Of course your diabolical intelligence agencies have subverted the news and obfuscated the spectacular launch and glorious rentry as "missile launches".
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zahc

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #13 on: March 05, 2017, 11:04:10 PM »
It would make more sense to colonize Antarctica than Mars. There is literally no point in sending anyone to Mars.
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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2017, 11:44:24 PM »
It would make more sense to colonize Antarctica than Mars. There is literally no point in sending anyone to Mars.

Eh... not as bad as you might think.

Economically, and in terms of raw elements, Asteroids are better, but Mars has some stuff going for it.

The thin 1% atmosphere is better than vacuum in some ways. You can aerobrake and use parachutes there for part of your landing, saving fuel. Doing it for "free", every pound of fuel you save is a pound of something else you can take there, or one pound easier getting there for the same payload.

Further from the sun, so CME radiation is lessened just by the factor of distance.

The thin 1% atmosphere actually does provide some radiation shielding.

-60 to -200 below is still way nicer than Venus at 900 degrees and 90x sea level pressure.

The 1/3rd gravity is presumably only half as bad for bones/muscles for g-depletion than long term stays on the moon's 1/6th gravity. And with gravity you can do "I've at least got somewhere to stand and my tools and feet will stay put..." type of construction with wheeled and tracked vehicles and power equipment. How to mine asteroids without even being able to use your own weight to hold you down against digging and drilling is going to be a bitch. The fact that many/most asteroids aren't even solid, but rubble and dust makes this worse.

Mars still has more volatiles, ice/water, carbon dioxide, oxygen etc. than the Moon does. And with the thinner atmosphere and lower gravity, lifting them off of Mars is cheaper too. Say there's some big space-station just in Earth-Moon space someday. It may work out that shipping the stuff to build it that the Moon is lacking would be cheaper from Mars. Especially for stuff like water, ice, iron etc. that can wait, and won't go bad if it lazily makes it's way back here over a few years.

And carbon is important too. The moon does not have a lot of carbon, or at least carbon bound up in things that won't take a lot of energy to release it. The Moon has lots of Oxygen in it's rocks, but Oxygen is pretty much in all the Mars rocks too, and again, more chemically available for cheaper.  It's in the rust, that's why everything is red there... On the Moon, there's some easier minerals, but a lot of the O2 would be gotten by having to melt down quartz or whatever. Asteroids, especially icy ones may well have way more volatiles and carbon than Mars pound for pound, but they still have the "catch a greased pig" problem with the almost zero gravity listed above.  Ceres might be the exception, but it's gravity is still damn low. And it's halfway again to Jupiter further out than Mars is.

And yes, I agree the economic use-cases for space aren't very solid... yet. It may not even really happen until there's enough people and industry/need out there for it to be self-sustaining and shipping every last thing from Earth becomes too expensive. It's a leap of faith to assume they'll someday outweigh just doing things smarter/better and more efficiently on Earth, including Antarctica... but that's the one big problem. All these things are "on Earth". Most of us are AGW/MMGW doubters-skeptics, but other stuff, asteroids/comets, AI Apocalypse, a genetic engineering/nanotech apocalypse, accidental or on purpose, Yellowstone supervolcano, a natural super-flu that wipes out humanity below replacement ability, or the ability to get society or technology going again for a few centuries... the odds of at least one of these, or something else "bad" happening that we haven't even thought of yet, within the span of recorded history, say 5000 years in the next 5000 years starts approaching 100%.

If we don't get a viable independent population off of Earth, we will go extinct. And obviously, having a robust space-based civilization in our Solar System actually means we can prevent some of the extinction events from even happening in the first place.

If someone has the attitude of "Meh... if we go extinct, we go extinct, we're not special." All I have to say to that is "you first".  =D
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2017, 12:02:32 AM »
If someone has the attitude of "Meh... if we go extinct, we go extinct, we're not special." All I have to say to that is "you first".  =D


My attitude is that I'm pretty sure God is in charge. I guess it's possible He's going to wait long enough that we need to move into new digs, before He ends things. But I can't bring myself to worry about it much. Maybe, on the other hand, He wants us to go and bring religiosity to the Martian fuzzie-wuzzies.

Now if there is no God, or just not one who's worried about us? Well, then, yeah, our extinction is just another non-event in a universe in which our troubles have no real meaning.
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Ron

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2017, 07:55:15 AM »
Most of us are AGW/MMGW doubters-skeptics, but other stuff, asteroids/comets, AI Apocalypse, a genetic engineering/nanotech apocalypse, accidental or on purpose, Yellowstone supervolcano, a natural super-flu that wipes out humanity below replacement ability, or the ability to get society or technology going again for a few centuries... the odds of at least one of these, or something else "bad" happening that we haven't even thought of yet, within the span of recorded history, say 5000 years in the next 5000 years starts approaching 100%.

If we don't get a viable independent population off of Earth, we will go extinct. And obviously, having a robust space-based civilization in our Solar System actually means we can prevent some of the extinction events from even happening in the first place.

If someone has the attitude of "Meh... if we go extinct, we go extinct, we're not special." All I have to say to that is "you first".  =D

100%? I don't know about that, probabilities aren't reality. Esp considering the limited amount of information we have about how we ended up here on a planet teaming with life in an otherwise empty barren solar system.

Regarding fistfuls comment, in a Christian context, I think you can make the argument that preparing to survive catastrophic probabilities is an act of love for humankind.
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 06:43:02 PM by Ron »
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HankB

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2017, 08:57:30 AM »
. . . Y out of Z of the top brass must be astronauts, with the independent authority to squeal to Congress if the non-astronaut brass try to waste too much money or resources on off-mission junk . . .
Utah senator Jake Garn was an astronaut - and as the senator from Utah, he INSISTED that the space shuttle solid boosters be rail-transportable. This resulted in elimination of Florida's seamless Aerojet SRB design in favor of Morton Thiokol's jointed design, sealed with O-rings. And we all know how that turned out.

Morton Thiokol is in Utah.

So astronauts are no more certain to be ethical in positions of government authority than, say, former Vietnam War POWs representing Arizona.

As for the rest . . . political correctness, EEOC mandates, Moslem outreach, and budget cuts have eviscerated NASA.  :mad:

But at least we've completely eliminated crime and poverty with the $20,000,000,000,000.00 or so we've spent on Great Society programs since the '60s.
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AJ Dual

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #18 on: March 06, 2017, 09:19:08 AM »
Utah senator Jake Garn was an astronaut - and as the senator from Utah, he INSISTED that the space shuttle solid boosters be rail-transportable. This resulted in elimination of Florida's seamless Aerojet SRB design in favor of Morton Thiokol's jointed design, sealed with O-rings. And we all know how that turned out.

Morton Thiokol is in Utah.

So astronauts are no more certain to be ethical in positions of government authority than, say, former Vietnam War POWs representing Arizona.

As for the rest . . . political correctness, EEOC mandates, Moslem outreach, and budget cuts have eviscerated NASA.  :mad:

But at least we've completely eliminated crime and poverty with the $20,000,000,000,000.00 or so we've spent on Great Society programs since the '60s.

Indeed. The "Right Stuff" in the cockpit has not reliably translated to other aspects of life.

Witness John McCain as noted above.

Or how Edgar Mitchell was revealed by WikiLeaks to be emailing John Podesta about aliens and zero-point energy...  [tinfoil]

Lisa Nowak who drove cross-country in a spacesuit diaper to save time so she could go kidnap/kill someone in a love triangle.

I could go on...
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lee n. field

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2017, 10:58:20 AM »

My attitude is that I'm pretty sure God is in charge. I guess it's possible He's going to wait long enough that we need to move into new digs, before He ends things. But I can't bring myself to worry about it much. Maybe, on the other hand, He wants us to go and bring religiosity to the Martian fuzzie-wuzzies.

Now if there is no God, or just not one who's worried about us? Well, then, yeah, our extinction is just another non-event in a universe in which our troubles have no real meaning.

We're promised things will work as long as they need to.  But the Bible, in multiple places, also says the earth will wear out "like a garment".  (In poetic sections, yes, comparing God's immutability to our situation.)

Right now I see the practical barriers to living in space as almost insurmountably high.

Here on Earth, life support is basically free.  Air, water and dirt, and mass, lots and lots of it, is just there, part of the package.  Mass isn't expelled and lost to your use just by going places.  You don't have to live in a perfect pressure vessel, forever.  

I used as an email tagline for a while: "The good thing about living on a planet is, if you loose your civilization, you don't also loose your atmosphere."

Can this be overcome?  Maybe.  Will there be a  practical need to?  Not for a long while (absent some kind of "Seveneves" scenario).
« Last Edit: March 06, 2017, 01:39:24 PM by lee n. field »
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agricola

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2017, 12:50:22 PM »
Perhaps under the Trump administration we can get NASA away from making friends with islam and back to work doing NASA stuff.

Landing a man (or better yet, a woman) on Mars would do far more to combat Wahabbi / fundamentalist Sunni thought than anything else. 
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Perd Hapley

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2017, 12:51:35 PM »
Good points, Lee. I was just suggesting there might be another perspective that A.J. left out - the We're Not In This Alone perspective. And while I wouldn't categorically rule out the possibility of humans colonizing other planets, I would suggest that Biblical prophecy seems to suggest otherwise. Just a thought.
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agricola

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2017, 12:55:40 PM »
We're promised things will work as long as they need to.  But the Bible, in multiple places, also says the earth will wear out "like a garment".  (In poetic sections, yes, comparing God's immutability to out situation.)

Right now I see the practical barriers to living in space as almost insurmountably high.

Here on Earth, life support is basically free.  Air, water and dirt, and mass, lots and lots of it, is just there, part of the package.  Mass isn't expelled and lost to your use just by going places.  You don't have to live in a perfect pressure vessel, forever.  

I used as an email tagline for a while: "The good thing about living on a planet is, if you loose your civilization, you don't also loose your atmosphere."

Can this be overcome?  Maybe.  Will there be a  practical need to?  Not for a long while (absent some kind of "Seveneves" scenario).

The thing is though we don't know what practical need there is, or will be - any more than the people tens of thousands of years ago who first paddled across a bit of water on bits of wood did.  There could be anything out there.
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lee n. field

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2017, 01:42:05 PM »
Get access to LEO cheaper by at least an order of magnitude.  Let there be something to actually do, and make money doing, despite the greater costs and complexity of living out there. 
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MechAg94

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Re: Landing on the Moon again
« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2017, 01:49:21 PM »
Another thing NASA could do is support private efforts at space travel.  They have a lot of facilities for testing all sorts of things. 

I work for a company that sells 100% oxygen gas in tonnage quantities.  A whole lot of the safety and design testing for equipment in oxygen service has been done by NASA. 
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