Cobalt

[Ben]

What are the hive mind's thoughts on Cobalt? I've been reading some stuff that suggests it will be the "breakout" metal in the next decade regarding electric cars and other portable electric uses that rely on Lithium-ion batteries.

I know there are major battery developments in the works. I don't have the technical knowledge to know if they also rely on a cobalt component or not.

US Cobalt stock is so cheap right now I was kinda thinking of putting a very small amount of money into it and forgetting about it, ala Kevin Malone ("If anyone gives you 10000 to 1 odds on anything, take it!").  

Non-detailed overview, but this gives an example of what some of the stock world is thinking:

https://www.yahoo.com/amphtml/finance/news/5-biggest-winners-electric-car-233000448.html

US Cobalt (USCO):  http://www.google.com/finance?q=usco&ei=osEuWcCjCYfCjAHF6pnAAg

[RevDisk]

http://www.npr.org/sections/alltechconsidered/2017/05/22/529116034/at-94-lithium-ion-pioneer-eyes-a-new-longer-lasting-battery

https://news.utexas.edu/2017/02/28/goodenough-introduces-new-battery-technology

Maybe.

https://qz.com/929794/has-lithium-battery-genius-john-goodenough-done-it-again-colleagues-are-skeptical/


Anyone else, I'd be skeptical as well. But I mean, literally the guy invented modern lithium batteries so he has a bit of credibility. If zombie Einstein rose up from the grave and said he had some interesting take on relativity, one would be at least willing to hear him out.

[Devonai]

Just FYI you need to fix the URL to Yahoo. Delete the gobbledygook after "USCO."

[MillCreek]

I have read some interesting stories about the instability of cobalt production, and bush wars fought thereto.  Most of the cobalt comes from central Africa and I think China has moved into the area in a big way, as part of their push to secure rare earth production important to electronics manufacturing.

[French G.]

My speculative metal is tungsten. We produce zero, China over half the world's supply,  and the stuff is used a lot in war and heavy industry. I don't want to buy  stock, just tooling inserts I can use and welding electrodes. A lot of them. In general almost anything that comes out of the ground isn't getting cheaper. The developed world wants its tech, but screams bloody murder if you dig a hole to get the raw materials.

[Ben]

Just FYI you need to fix the URL to Yahoo. Delete the gobbledygook after "USCO."

Oops, sorry. Done.

[Ben]

I have read some interesting stories about the instability of cobalt production, and bush wars fought thereto.  Most of the cobalt comes from central Africa and I think China has moved into the area in a big way, as part of their push to secure rare earth production important to electronics manufacturing.

The cobalt production in Idaho was really interesting to me.  I would have assumed our major sources would be in mostly sketchy countries. I'd like to dig around and see what the productrion costs are for the domestic product vs the African product.

[MillCreek]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/business/batteries/congo-cobalt-mining-for-lithium-ion-battery/

http://www.globalresearch.ca/lithium-ion-batteries-tech-boom-fueled-by-40000-congolese-child-miners/5519187

[HankB]

Hmmm . . . wondering where I use cobalt. I recently bought some cobalt steel tooling for my mini-lathe, and I'm pretty sure Japan drier contains cobalt compounds, but other than that, nothing is really coming to mind. I'm sure it's in some other products I have, or is used to produce them, but I never really considered what the source is.

The developed world wants its tech, but screams bloody murder if you dig a hole to get the raw materials.

I read a story a year or two back that rare earth production in the USA was effectively shut down by the regulatory burdens imposed on US mining. Same with lead mining.

China has been popping champagne corks ("Mao's Finest Bubbly") in celebration and laughing at us ever since.

[French G.]

Lead mining is the tip of it. We don't even refine lead anymore, last one shut down because the cost to upgrade to current environmental standards was too damn high. I actually like environmental protection, but we ought to subsidize strategic industry if we want it when other people take their trading ball and go home.

[freakazoid]

Sounds like I need to look into making an investment.

My speculative metal is tungsten. We produce zero, China over half the world's supply,  and the stuff is used a lot in war and heavy industry. I don't want to buy  stock, just tooling inserts I can use and welding electrodes. A lot of them. In general almost anything that comes out of the ground isn't getting cheaper. The developed world wants its tech, but screams bloody murder if you dig a hole to get the raw materials.

That's probably not a bad idea.

[AmbulanceDriver]

For those of us whose stock purchases are limited to our 401k through work, who do you use to make occasional (or even frequent) purchases like this?

[freakazoid]

For those of us whose stock purchases are limited to our 401k through work, who do you use to make occasional (or even frequent) purchases like this?

I've only done a few small transactions ever, but I have an e-trade account. Seems good, but I'm certainly no expert.

Just FYI you need to fix the URL to Yahoo. Delete the gobbledygook after "USCO."

It should actually say "SCTFF" https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sctff

[Ben]

I've only done a few small transactions ever, but I have an e-trade account. Seems good, but I'm certainly no expert.

It should actually say "SCTFF" https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/sctff

USCO is different. I don't know what's up with the Yahoo link. I changed it to Google finance and that one seems to be working.

As for making small trades outside of 401Ks, etc. I use Ameritrade, but there are several good trading companies you can use. Most of the top ones on a web search will be pretty similar and safe.

[freakazoid]

USCO is different. I don't know what's up with the Yahoo link. I changed it to Google finance and that one seems to be working.

As for making small trades outside of 401Ks, etc. I use Ameritrade, but there are several good trading companies you can use. Most of the top ones on a web search will be pretty similar and safe.

Interesting. If you google "USCO stock price" and "SCTFF stock price" they are both linked to US Cobalt. But in the Google Finance popup showing the stock price one says "OTCMKTS: SCTFF" and the other says "CVE: USCO". Both with different prices. Under E-Trade, US Cobalt only comes up under SCTFF.

[Ben]

Interesting. If you google "USCO stock price" and "SCTFF stock price" they are both linked to US Cobalt. But in the Google Finance popup showing the stock price one says "OTCMKTS: SCTFF" and the other says "CVE: USCO". Both with different prices. Under E-Trade, US Cobalt only comes up under SCTFF.

Huh. I have to investigate more. Seems strange that a single company would be on two different markets. Perhaps they are different divisions, sort of like what ALCOA did.

[freakazoid]

Sounds like it came from when they changed their name from Scientific Metals to US Cobalt, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/scientific-metals-corp-announces-name-080000988.html I think SCTFF might of been their old ticker symbol and now it is USCO. Not sure why it would still show up as SCTFF though unless their is some sort of official date when names change or something. And really not sure why they would show up with two different stock prices.

[Scout26]

Two different exchanges ??

[sumpnz]

I have read some interesting stories about the instability of cobalt production, and bush wars fought thereto.  Most of the cobalt comes from central Africa and I think China has moved into the area in a big way, as part of their push to secure rare earth production important to electronics manufacturing.

The vast majority of cobalt production worldwide is as a byproduct of copper and nickel mining.  IIRC that accounts for around 80-90% of all cobalt produced.  Dedicated cobalt mines are rare because A) copper and nickle mines historically produced more cobalt that was needed anyway, and B) cobalt is rarely found in high enough concentrations to be the prime target of a mine.  Now, B) could be mostly a by product of A in that it hasn't been worth looking for concentrated deposits of cobalt before. 

A primary cobalt mine that is already producing is probably a decent bet for investment.  Proposed mines (cobalt or otherwise), or even ones deep into the planning and permitting process, not so much.  The capital required is massive, time lines are very long, and the odds of ultimate success are far from a sure thing remote.

If I was going to invest in cobalt I'd be looking at refiners, or other companies that buy cobalt ore concentrate to turn it into something high value.

[AmbulanceDriver]

So I tossed some play money at US Cobalt.   Bought 100 shares at 0.5328....   we'll see if I regret it or not...   :)

[freakazoid]

Bought at a better time than I did. lol I seem to always get into something too late. Bought in at .72235, so pretty much the moment before it started to drop. Hopefully it turns around and continues to climb. 

[K Frame]

Sure, you can drop into US Cobalt cheaply. That rising demand for cobalt, though, is no indication that USCO's stock price will rise.

For example, in the past year cobalt futures have more than doubled, from just over $11 a pound last June 1 to just under $26 a pound yesterday.

During the same period of time, USCO's share price has been.... stagnant.

I'd say find yourself an ETF or a mutual fund that either invests directly in cobalt futures, or which makes them a large part of their base investment strategy. But, you're already behind the curve if you're going to do that. http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cobalt-demand-investors-idUSKBN15T1VR

[K Frame]

Oh, and stay away from Vanguard's Precious Metals and Mining index fund.

The fundamentals looked really good when I invested in them, but when metals prices were going up, PM&M was going down, and stayed down. I lost a shitpot load of money on that fund.

[Ben]

IMO, one of the bigger considerations with investing in Cobalt in the US is... the US. As I said in the OP, I look at it as a high end gamble, which is why I only bought a little bit of USCO (at 0.71) just for the halibut.

The time for it to potentially go up is during the current administration. If any dems likeminded to the bunch that ran in 2016 are poised to get in either in 4 or 8 years, I'd likely get out of it, because they and their EPA administrator will certainly be gunning for that kind of mining and production. Either to eliminate it or regulate it more than it already is.

Under Trump, there's a chance that regulations might be eased, which would create at least a short term pop. Of course that means keeping a pretty close eye on it if it's in your portfolio. Otherwise for set it and forget it, Mike makes good sense with an ETF.

[K Frame]

"The time for it to potentially go up is during the current administration. If any dems likeminded to the bunch that ran in 2016 are poised to get in either in 4 or 8 years, I'd likely get out of it, because they and their EPA administrator will certainly be gunning for that kind of mining and production. Either to eliminate it or regulate it more than it already is."

But if they eliminate it, they destroy the source material of the cobalt that is needed to produce the batteries for their messianic electric cars (as in, What would Jesus Drive?)...

Henry Waxman and the Jesusbama didn't destroy heavy mining when they had a chance, so I wouldn't be too sure that it would be a sure thing when the Dems get back in power.

But, as I said, I really have no faith in USCO doing anything but circling in a fairly narrow band.