Author Topic: SpaceX  (Read 2058 times)

Hawkmoon

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SpaceX
« on: January 10, 2018, 10:09:23 PM »
Or ... The Case of the Missing Satellite

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/spacex-launched-satellite-isn-t-seen-in-orbit-pentagon-says

According to SpaceX, everything went perfectly. But the Air Force can't find the satellite. SpaceX says, "Not our problem." It sounds a lot like the old joke: The operation was successful, but the patient died.
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #1 on: January 10, 2018, 10:33:30 PM »
Did they turn on stealth mode too soon?
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KD5NRH

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #2 on: January 11, 2018, 12:03:41 AM »
Or ... The Case of the Missing Satellite

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-09/spacex-launched-satellite-isn-t-seen-in-orbit-pentagon-says

According to SpaceX, everything went perfectly. But the Air Force can't find the satellite. SpaceX says, "Not our problem." It sounds a lot like the old joke: The operation was successful, but the patient died.

Even though they haven't released video, (Though why not at this point; what's the point in classifying everything about something you say has failed?  It's not like they'd have to describe the functions of the satellite to show they did or didn't dump it where they were supposed to.) I can't imagine them not having very detailed telemetry and multiple camera angles showing exactly what happened throughout the flight.

French G.

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #3 on: January 11, 2018, 06:55:52 AM »
The doors to Musk's secret moon base opened and took the whole rocket in.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

griz

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #4 on: January 11, 2018, 07:26:33 AM »
.. what's the point in classifying everything about something you say has failed? ...

Saying what failed is the same as saying what they were trying to do, so that's still secret squirrel stuff.
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makattak

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2018, 08:56:23 AM »
I have to say, this is brilliant.

If it did fail, loudly proclaiming it failed and Space X saying "We have no idea what happened but we did our job" leaves our enemies wondering if it's really there and the Air Force is lying to keep them from knowing what it's doing.

If it didn't fail, loudly proclaiming it failed and Space X saying "We have no idea what happened but we did our job" leaves our enemies wondering if it's really there and the Air Force is lying to keep them from knowing what it's doing, while getting to use it for whatever they had in mind.

This is a good move, whatever happened.
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Marnoot

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #6 on: January 11, 2018, 10:33:36 AM »
From what I've read, the current theory is the rocket flight went correctly, however the payload adapter failed to release the satellite from the final rocket stage, thus falling back into the atmosphere together. The rocket was made by SpaceX, however both the satellite and the payload adapter were made by Northrup Grumman. If the rocket's trajectory was wrong or it somehow failed to signal the payload adapter, it's SpaceX's fault. If the payload adapter failed to release the satellite, it's Northrup Grumman's fault.

Ben

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #7 on: January 11, 2018, 10:42:04 AM »
From what I've read, the current theory is the rocket flight went correctly, however the payload adapter failed to release the satellite from the final rocket stage, thus falling back into the atmosphere together. The rocket was made by SpaceX, however both the satellite and the payload adapter were made by Northrup Grumman. If the rocket's trajectory was wrong or it somehow failed to signal the payload adapter, it's SpaceX's fault. If the payload adapter failed to release the satellite, it's Northrup Grumman's fault.

Given the nature of the payload, I'm curious how much "need to know" was involved that might have kept Space X from having full information on the operational aspects of the 2nd stage. While Northrup Grumman is also private, they are much more entrenched in areas of the gov where clearances are required. I can't help but wonder if maybe Space X is not yet trusted enough that the gov and Grumman maybe were too conservative in what knowledge they passed on to Space X.
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dogmush

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #8 on: January 11, 2018, 10:55:48 AM »
Has anyone asked Ernst Stavro Blofeld?

KD5NRH

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2018, 12:18:27 PM »
Saying what failed is the same as saying what they were trying to do, so that's still secret squirrel stuff.

Unless it's got a big "HERE ARE THE TOP SECRET FUNCTIONS OF THIS SATELLITE" label on it, the rest of the video isn't likely to tell anyone anything.

Besides, they were putting it in one of the least private place humanity has managed to get to.

Ben

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #10 on: January 11, 2018, 12:46:55 PM »
Unless it's got a big "HERE ARE THE TOP SECRET FUNCTIONS OF THIS SATELLITE" label on it, the rest of the video isn't likely to tell anyone anything.

Besides, they were putting it in one of the least private place humanity has managed to get to.

I think you have never worked around classified hardware. You would be surprised at the constraints, including photography. Just because Joe schmoe couldn't get data from an image doesn't mean an expert on the technology  couldnt.
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230RN

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #11 on: January 11, 2018, 01:25:44 PM »
I have to say, this is brilliant.

If it did fail, loudly proclaiming it failed and Space X saying "We have no idea what happened but we did our job" leaves our enemies wondering if it's really there and the Air Force is lying to keep them from knowing what it's doing.

If it didn't fail, loudly proclaiming it failed and Space X saying "We have no idea what happened but we did our job" leaves our enemies wondering if it's really there and the Air Force is lying to keep them from knowing what it's doing, while getting to use it for whatever they had in mind.

This is a good move, whatever happened.



Ha, ha, haaaa.  Somehow I can't help the thought that this was Trumpian in its brilliance. 


KD5NRH

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #12 on: January 11, 2018, 02:22:20 PM »
I think you have never worked around classified hardware. You would be surprised at the constraints, including photography. Just because Joe schmoe couldn't get data from an image doesn't mean an expert on the technology  couldnt.

They might as well just pop a PDF of the user manual up on FileBay if they've made it so that the function is easily discernible from the outside *by anyone* with whatever outer shell they put on it.  Except for the cost of strolling up to take a closer look, they've done the equivalent of having it tour the world's main streets unguarded.  It's literally in everybody's territory and there's nothing we can do if any of them want to launch a camera satellite just to take a tour of everything in a given orbit.  There's probably something in some treaties that gives us some recourse if someone launches a team to pop the hood and dig through the guts, but AFAIK, as long as they don't touch it, they can look all they want.

Sure, it's expensive to go look, but we're not exactly worried about Somalia here.  Russia, China and the few others we are concerned about can afford to do something like that, have the people who could figure out the most by looking, and I'd be surprised if they haven't done it before at some point.  After all, they already have satellites in various orbits, so how hard would it be to release an extra payload that's essentially just a remote camera?

AJ Dual

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #13 on: January 11, 2018, 02:45:35 PM »
They might as well just pop a PDF of the user manual up on FileBay if they've made it so that the function is easily discernible from the outside *by anyone* with whatever outer shell they put on it.*  Except for the cost of strolling up to take a closer look, they've done the equivalent of having it tour the world's main streets unguarded.  It's literally in everybody's territory and there's nothing we can do if any of them want to launch a camera satellite just to take a tour of everything in a given orbit.  There's probably something in some treaties that gives us some recourse if someone launches a team to pop the hood and dig through the guts, but AFAIK, as long as they don't touch it, they can look all they want.

Sure, it's expensive to go look, but we're not exactly worried about Somalia here.  Russia, China and the few others we are concerned about can afford to do something like that, have the people who could figure out the most by looking, and I'd be surprised if they haven't done it before at some point.  After all, they already have satellites in various orbits, so how hard would it be to release an extra payload that's essentially just a remote camera?

There's actually a LOT that those with the skills can tell about a spacecraft or satellite just from a picture. And generally speaking, there is ZERO wiggle room to "just put an obfuscating shell on a satellite" every last ounce of it has a mission critical purpose.* Because every ounce more it weighs means more fuel and a larger rocket to launch it, more fuel for it's RCS/position-keeping system to thrust it around, and monkeys with it's thermal managment in the sun and shade of earth, and the shell and the gear and that extra fuel means less actual gear that supports the satellites main function.

And having another satellite take a picture of it with a close pass is certainly something that's been done several times before, but it is not something you can do casually. The satellite taking the picture has to be within a certain distance, or even the angular resolution of even the best cameras and optics won't see anything, then there's the two relative velocities of the satellites, and all you're likely to get is a dash-shaped line of light as they speed by one another at a relative closing speed of several kilometers a second. And then there's the issue of if you'll even be able to see anything if you can control for all those other factors too. Because getting an f-stop exposure that will show you both the sunlit and unlit parts of the target satellite may not be possible within the focal length of optics you need to see the satellite at a distance of a few hundred or maybe a thousand miles. (Which is kissing-cousin close in space. even near-earth orbital terms...) And then there's the issue of if a satellite is matching the orbit of one of ours that closely, NORAD and the space tracking system, or their counterparts in Russia and China will know about it. And all that has to be done is either tell the suspect country (assuming it hasn't been watched from launch, which it always is...) to GTFO, or, simply use the satellite's RCS to modify it's orbit so the spy satellite trying to get a look-see has to chase it, or even just throw their satellite into an earth descending orbit, or out into a useless orbit that will ruin it's mission, if ruining it's mission is less important than not letting an enemy examine your satellite.

So from earth-bound photos from the satellite in the clean room, or a publicity photo showing the mate-up between the satellite and the first stage, from the size, shape, type, and numbers of antennas, they can get a very good idea of what frequencies it'll operate on. If any camera apertures are visible, they can get a very good idea of the focal length, and magnification that the satellite is capable of.

From it's size, number, and position of solar panels (if any) they can determine it's operating power budget, and get a pretty good ballpark idea of how much RCS delta-V it has to change or modify it's orbit.

The physics of spaceflight, and that of RF communication, and optics are very constrained, and you can get an almost complete picture of what a device does or is capable of if you can plug in a few variables, or even just a reasonable ballpark range of variables gleaned from something as simple as a photograph.

And yes, if I had to place bets between SpaceX and Grumman/.gov screwing up, I know who I'd bet on. And it's not the company that can take a freaking rocket, get it back, and land it on it's tail within a few feet of accuracy.

*one caveat there, is that it's almost certain that both the U.S. and Soviets/Russia have experimented with cone shaped balloons, or an "umbrella" that a satellite can hide behind from at least someone looking up at it below from Earth, either optically, or with radar, but the aforementioned weight penalty is just too great, even if the shield or blind is made of very thin lightweight materials. Because the struts or sticks to attach it to the satellite, have weight, the system that inflates or deploys it has weight, the control system adds complexity to the satellite's computers... and again, every ounce of a "shield" is an ounce of fuel, or an ounce of mission critical equipment on that satellite you're now missing. And further, advances in infra-red photography, like going back to the late 80's or early 90's, God knows what 2000's era tech is capable of now.. have made such a black blind or shield unworkable anyway. Because if we can see the moons of Pluto in infra-red all the way from Earth, and detect .001 degree differences in the 3 degree above absolute zero cosmic background radiation with "civilian" technology... a spy satellite has zero chance of hiding just 200-300 miles up.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2018, 03:07:33 PM by AJ Dual »
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KD5NRH

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #14 on: January 11, 2018, 04:22:51 PM »
And having another satellite take a picture of it with a close pass is certainly something that's been done several times before, but it is not something you can do casually.

When it comes to gathering intelligence on a potential enemy's high-tech intelligence assets, is anything done casually?  I mean, if PopSci published a detailed article on the satellite next month, complete with schematics, would any foreign intel agency even believe a word of it?

Quote
And then there's the issue of if a satellite is matching the orbit of one of ours that closely, NORAD and the space tracking system, or their counterparts in Russia and China will know about it. And all that has to be done is either tell the suspect country (assuming it hasn't been watched from launch, which it always is...) to GTFO, or, simply use the satellite's RCS to modify it's orbit so the spy satellite trying to get a look-see has to chase it, or even just throw their satellite into an earth descending orbit, or out into a useless orbit that will ruin it's mission, if ruining it's mission is less important than not letting an enemy examine your satellite.

That could get real expensive real quick...to the point that even if your cameras suck, just putting some "space drones" up there to make an enemy screw up their own satellite orbits sounds like a valid tactic.

The sheer amount of stuff up there makes me think it would be worth substantial expense to any space-capable nation to be able to get the best possible look at the stuff that's not under their own control.

Quote
And yes, if I had to place bets between SpaceX and Grumman/.gov screwing up, I know who I'd bet on. And it's not the company that can take a freaking rocket, get it back, and land it on it's tail within a few feet of accuracy.

Which is why I have a problem with .gov implying that it has to be SpaceX's fault without any evidence to back that up.

AJ Dual

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #15 on: January 11, 2018, 11:07:19 PM »
There is no such thing as a "cheap space drone". You make a really dumb and simple satellite to fake out another county and move their satellites needlessly, all the expense of making that happen just gets shifted to the booster that got it there. And you just shifted those costs and complexity to the upper third stage parts even SpaceX doesn't get back, and don't get to keep in orbit doing something useful either.

You're not really grasping the magnitude of the size of space, or the velocities involved, even just the space in near Earth orbit.
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #16 on: January 12, 2018, 02:11:19 AM »
Unless it's got a big "HERE ARE THE TOP SECRET FUNCTIONS OF THIS SATELLITE" label on it, the rest of the video isn't likely to tell anyone anything.

Besides, they were putting it in one of the least private place humanity has managed to get to.


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If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

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KD5NRH

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #17 on: January 12, 2018, 11:47:39 AM »

Lindsay Lohan?

Like throwing a hot dog into interstellar space...

Firethorn

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #18 on: January 15, 2018, 04:47:37 AM »
Unless it's got a big "HERE ARE THE TOP SECRET FUNCTIONS OF THIS SATELLITE" label on it, the rest of the video isn't likely to tell anyone anything.

Besides, they were putting it in one of the least private place humanity has managed to get to.

The presence of things like optical lenses for cameras, any radio antennas or dishes, and more might not tell us anything, but would tell those familiar with satellites and the technologies in question what it is.

And nice HD footage from feet away is still better than what they can get from the ground(or reasonably close to it).

You know what, basically what AJ said.

Ben, what I got from the releases is that Northrup provided everything SpaceX needed.  They even provided the payload adapter - so all SpaceX really knew was the rough dimensions of the satellite, its mass, and how roughly it could be handled.

So if the payload adaptor failed, so long as the SpaceX module provided the release signal, it is all on Northrup, I'd say. 

grampster

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #19 on: January 15, 2018, 08:28:09 AM »
Wait, wait....We all know who's fault it is. 
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230RN

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #20 on: January 15, 2018, 12:27:47 PM »
Gee, I wonder if this was what triggered that Hawaii "Incoming missile!" alert...

... ya think?

roffle
« Last Edit: January 16, 2018, 02:56:20 PM by 230RN »

KD5NRH

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #21 on: January 15, 2018, 04:54:35 PM »
And nice HD footage from feet away is still better than what they can get from the ground(or reasonably close to it).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NBGk5PD4A8

If there was a good way around it, I'm sure horny Japanese teenage boys would have plastered the fix all over the internet long ago.

230RN

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Re: SpaceX
« Reply #22 on: January 16, 2018, 03:01:56 PM »
I figure one company was using metric volts, and the other one American volts on the release signal.