North Korea

[Angel Eyes]

[freakazoid]

Oh is that done already? All taken care of? I didn't realize that. Bravo then!  
Sorry, but we've been here before. We've been promised this (and even more!) before and it doesn't happen.
Trump should maybe wait more than a day before taking his victory lap.

Have you ever seen this before?

[freakazoid]

IT’S HAPPENING! Guess who just got nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2018/06/13/its-happening-guess-who-just-got-nominated-for-a-nobel-peace-prize/

[Andiron]

I'm waiting for Trump to turn his attention to the Israel/Palestinian problem.  Although since it doesn't impact the US, I'm not holding my breath.
We've had 50 years of "The Peace Process", let's see what he can do there.*


* I think cutting off all aid the Palestinians would be a good starting point.  

A final push to the borders and kicking the "palestinians" to whichever actual country is closest would put an end to much of that region's instability.  Israel needs to define their borders, enforce them and be done with it.   If the local muslims don't like that,  they'd best stop antagonizing the Izzys.


/ thread drift,  yet again.  I'd love to see Trump get the Nobel,  as it would be hilarious.

[K Frame]

I imagine the answer would be Trump.

Finally got an answer from her.

Essentially it consisted of: "Never try anything new because it's new and it scares the hidebound diplomats and negotiators. Diplomacy's legacy of monumental failure must be allowed to continue, because everyone is comfortable with it."

Great, another advocate for the success of John Foster Dulles providing the gasoline and match that kicked off the Korean War because he diplomatted.

Honestly what I would have expected from a Hillary Hugger.

[DittoHead]

Have you ever seen this before?

Seen what exactly?

That Picture? Yes.
The leader of NK meeting the leader of SK? Yes.
NK making meaningless & vague agreements to "work toward an agreement"? Yes.

I'm not saying this a bad step. I'm saying it's barely one step in a marathon. A marathon we have started many times before, celebrated early many times before, and not been able to finish.  Yes, previous presidents have done this premature celebration too and it was foolish for them to think they had solved it - but every time it happens it becomes dumber. Believing a lie for the 10th time is dumb, but believing it for the 11th is even dumber.

[Pb]

Yeah, the Norks have lied many many times before.

I'm hoping Trump convinced the Chinese to force the Norks to behave and give up their nukes... that's the only think I can think of that would make this effort more successful that the previous ones.

Remember Trump's trip to China and him threatening the Chinese with tariffs?  Maybe there was a lot going on behind the scenes that was not public.

[TommyGunn]

Seen what exactly?

That Picture? Yes.
The leader of NK meeting the leader of SK? Yes.
NK making meaningless & vague agreements to "work toward an agreement"? Yes.

I'm not saying this a bad step. I'm saying it's barely one step in a marathon. A marathon we have started many times before, celebrated early many times before, and not been able to finish.  Yes, previous presidents have done this premature celebration too and it was foolish for them to think they had solved it - but every time it happens it becomes dumber. Believing a lie for the 10th time is dumb, but believing it for the 11th is even dumber.

From what I've heard President Trump say,  he's keenly aware this may easily not pan out into anything meaningful.  I don't blame him for being optimistic.  It doesn't seem to make sense to do a meeting and all, then be morose, dejected and pessimistic.... it might be perceived as an unwillingness to follow through,  and Kim would probably not be impressed that the American President really intended anything serious.

[freakazoid]

Seen what exactly?

That Picture? Yes.
The leader of NK meeting the leader of SK? Yes.
NK making meaningless & vague agreements to "work toward an agreement"? Yes.

I'm not saying this a bad step. I'm saying it's barely one step in a marathon. A marathon we have started many times before, celebrated early many times before, and not been able to finish.  Yes, previous presidents have done this premature celebration too and it was foolish for them to think they had solved it - but every time it happens it becomes dumber. Believing a lie for the 10th time is dumb, but believing it for the 11th is even dumber.

No, have you seen that before this picture was taken.

[DittoHead]

he's keenly aware this may easily not pan out into anything meaningful.

At times that certainly does appear to be true:

“I may be wrong,” Trump said during a news conference after the meeting. “I may stand before you in six months and say, ‘Hey, I was wrong.' ”
“I don’t know that I’ll ever admit that, but I’ll find some kind of an excuse,” Trump added with a smile.

And then a day later he tweets that "There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea".
Maybe this is another case of taking him seriously but not literally, but I can't take that seriously.

[DittoHead]

No, have you seen that before this picture was taken.

By that do you mean a chubby Asian man shaking hands with an old Asian man?? 
Yes, I have seen that. 

Or do you mean Moon Jae-in shaking hands with Kim Jong-un in the JSA?
No, I had not seen that before that picture was taken. It was historic, as was the Trump Kim summit.
The "agreement" is not so historic. Does that handshake mean this time will be different? I hope so, but I doubt it.

With NK we are past the point of "Trust but verify". It is "Distrust until verified".

[RoadKingLarry]

Yes, much better if Trump were all pessimistic and publicly downplaying the whole  thing while denouncing Kim as a worthless liar and fraud.
Hell, the Norks can't be trusted so why the *expletive deleted*ck even try diplomacy.
Just bomb the whole damn Northen half of the peninsula into slag and be done with it.
*expletive deleted*ck me running.

[DittoHead]

Yes, much better if Trump were all pessimistic and publicly downplaying the whole  thing while denouncing Kim as a worthless liar and fraud.
Hell, the Norks can't be trusted so why the *expletive deleted*ck even try diplomacy.
Just bomb the whole damn Northen half of the peninsula into slag and be done with it.
*expletive deleted*ck me running.

Is this a direct quote from John Bolton?

[HankB]

It wouldn't surprise me if the Norks decide to test Trump in the coming months, possibly as soon as the 2018 U.S. midterm elections.

If (when?) the Norks violate whatever they agreed to, I think there's a good chance that Trump will immediately re-impose the maximum sanctions he can along with resuming & even expanding military exercises with ROK, rather than apologize, excuse, dither (aka "strategic patience") and send cash.

 

[Hawkmoon]

At times that certainly does appear to be true:And then a day later he tweets that "There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea".
Maybe this is another case of taking him seriously but not literally, but I can't take that seriously.

Considering that the Norks' nuclear test facility basically self-destructed, at the moment there basically isn't a nuclear threat on the peninsula. Could they start up the program almost from scratch and rebuild the facility? Sure. But it would take time, and it's just possible that the midget rocketman has seen that there's more to having a viable nuke arsenal than just tweeting, "Hey, look! I've got nukes!"

[DittoHead]

Considering that the Norks' nuclear test facility basically self-destructed, at the moment there basically isn't a nuclear threat on the peninsula. Could they start up the program almost from scratch and rebuild the facility? Sure. But it would take time, and it's just possible that the midget rocketman has seen that there's more to having a viable nuke arsenal than just tweeting, "Hey, look! I've got nukes!"

I'm no NK expert and our intel from there is far from perfect but this is not my understanding of the current situation at all.
That was one test facility out of how many? After they completed how many tests? That wasn't their entire program that they blew up, I can pretty much guarantee you that.

it is still a very small piece of the puzzle that doesn’t affect the North’s core nuclear capabilities or arsenal.
“Simply put, they can stop testing because they have finished development and don’t need to test any more. Ultimately, it’s still just a first step down a long and difficult road if true denuclearisation of the peninsula is to be achieved.

[cordex]

Considering that the Norks' nuclear test facility basically self-destructed, at the moment there basically isn't a nuclear threat on the peninsula. Could they start up the program almost from scratch and rebuild the facility? Sure. But it would take time, and it's just possible that the midget rocketman has seen that there's more to having a viable nuke arsenal than just tweeting, "Hey, look! I've got nukes!"

As DittoHead said, the test site collapse had zero to do with their ability to use nukes in anger.  Just because we stopped setting off nukes underneath Baxterville Mississippi after the 1960s doesn't mean our nuclear weapons program was shut down.

[freakazoid]

By that do you mean a chubby Asian man shaking hands with an old Asian man?? 
Yes, I have seen that. 

Kinky