Author Topic: Place Your Bets !!!  (Read 13479 times)

Scout26

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Place Your Bets !!!
« on: October 18, 2018, 01:30:00 AM »
Make your predictions for the future:
Senate - R+5
House - R+0-5
(and I think these are all on the low end.)

Chief of Staff when Kelley leaves - Newt Gingrich
UN Ambassador - Richard A. Grenell (Current ambassador to Germany.  Oh, and he's gay, which will mean  [popcorn] during his confirmation hearing)
Attorney General - Trey Gowdy
Defense - Mattis stays
State - Pompeo stays
Education - DeVos stays

There might be some other lesser players that leave.

Trump's "Everyone cut your budgets 5% will drive the base to the polls."


Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Pb

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2018, 09:09:39 AM »
No clue!

Ben

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2018, 09:26:57 AM »
I'm really at a "no clue" point myself right now. Other than I'm beginning to think this is going to be one of those outlier years where the majority party stays in power.

I was first thinking that progs would be extra fired up, and cons a bit lax, after the Kavanaugh confirmation. While the progs are certainly fired up, they are TOO fired up, what with the violent physical attacks and abhorrent verbal attacks going on everywhere. I think they are energizing the R base even more than if Kavanaugh were not confirmed. "Mob" is almost a euphemistic way to describe them at this point, IMO.

If the Rs end up holding both houses, I will be very interested to see the prog reactions and rationalizations.

Case in point on the whacko behavior:

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/10/18/cuckoo-for-cocoa-puffs-watch-raving-lunatic-in-nifty-gold-pants-destroy-ted-cruz-yard-signs/

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/10/18/oooomg-so-theres-more-to-the-video-of-the-antifa-thug-who-attacked-9-11-widow-youve-gotta-see-this/
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

RoadKingLarry

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2018, 09:29:58 AM »
Quote
If the Rs end up holding both houses, I will be very interested to see the prog reactions and rationalizations.

I would expect the rending of garments and gnashing of teeth would get turned up to 11. Along with and exponential increase in violence against the right.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

MechAg94

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2018, 09:49:16 AM »
I'm really at a "no clue" point myself right now. Other than I'm beginning to think this is going to be one of those outlier years where the majority party stays in power.

I was first thinking that progs would be extra fired up, and cons a bit lax, after the Kavanaugh confirmation. While the progs are certainly fired up, they are TOO fired up, what with the violent physical attacks and abhorrent verbal attacks going on everywhere. I think they are energizing the R base even more than if Kavanaugh were not confirmed. "Mob" is almost a euphemistic way to describe them at this point, IMO.

If the Rs end up holding both houses, I will be very interested to see the prog reactions and rationalizations.

Case in point on the whacko behavior:

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/10/18/cuckoo-for-cocoa-puffs-watch-raving-lunatic-in-nifty-gold-pants-destroy-ted-cruz-yard-signs/

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/10/18/oooomg-so-theres-more-to-the-video-of-the-antifa-thug-who-attacked-9-11-widow-youve-gotta-see-this/
I am leaning toward the R's keeping what they have and gaining a few seats.  Everything I hear says R's are leading in races and Democrats are trending down.  I am hopeful for big gains, but I don't want to follow that too far.  Now most of what I have heard about is Senate races.  House races are much more local and I haven't heard anyone get into the details on that.  IMO, the Democrat blue wave talk seems to be more wishful thinking on their part than reality.  Also, I am hearing noises about minorities being upset with Democrat Party, but I don't know how far to take that.  Even a few percent movement there is big.  Lots of things up in the air.

I disagree on what you said about the Kavanaugh confirmation.  I think if the R's had failed to get Kavanaugh nominated, the result would have been Republican voters staying home out of disgust since those same Republicans are running for election.  The victory encouraged voters who think they might actually useful things.    
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

dogmush

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2018, 09:56:07 AM »
My bet is that if the "Blue Wave" doesn't materialize you will see NYT editorials about our election process is obsolete and the Legislature should be disbanded.  Maybe something about only college educated folks should vote.

French G.

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2018, 11:41:56 AM »
I bet that the reaction after the repubs stay in will ensure a Trump 2020 win. Unless #walkaway becomes the party the L could have been.

Senate is a done deal. House may go slightly blue.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

AJ Dual

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2018, 11:51:08 AM »
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1052710045375295488.html

This guy likes to look at hard data rather than polls. He uses new voter registrations, and early/absentee votes where it can be tied to political parties instead.

I'm now feeling confident that the blue wave ain't gonna happen. And at minimum,  the GOP will hold the house.

I'm cautiously optimistic that there could be actual gains in the House by the GOP beyond the predictions of 1-2 Senators.

And while I think that it's too much to hope for, I would not be surprised or shocked if there was a red wave instead.
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Scout26

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2018, 11:53:56 AM »
The whole "Blue Wave" talk started right after the 2016 election, simply because it has been traditional that the party out of power gains seats in Congress in the midterms.  And since the D's were extra "fired up" (aka angry) about the Trump election, their belief was that even more people would vote D.

Then Trump started keeping his promises.  The economy improved.  The tax cuts were passed. (which should have been done so that took effect last year, so people would know how much that impacted them when they go to polls in Nov.  (R Ad- "Hey, remember that extra money you got in your refund last spring and your paychecks...Yeah 'D' Candidate and Nancy Pelosi want to take that money from you.")

And yes, the Kavanaugh hearings, the giant clown show that went along with it, and now the (ongoing) D campaign violence, (not to mention the Project Veritas videos, Hypocricy (Ellison), along with other videos (Cinema), and "Own Goals" (Warren, Heitkamp and others), is driving independents to the R's as they are being seen as the party of the adults

And that's mainly due to the alternative news sources.  Fox News, FB, Twitter, other social media, means that the MSM has lost control of the narrative.  No matter how much they try to "shape" the news as the had for many, many years, they are now being constantly called out for their lies, deceit, and clear bias.  And when called out they try to pass them off as "errors".  But if if they were honest mistakes, then at least some of them would be favorable to the Trump (and by extension the R's) but they are NEVER in Trump's favor.  
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Ron

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2018, 12:06:13 PM »
It’s hard to tell.

On the ground most on the right aren’t engaging in public virtue signaling. At work I’ve watched those on the right quietly listen to the leftists rant and not bother engaging them.

Why argue on social media with NPC’s? They will just follow their script and call you names.

So who knows how many will quietly go to the polls and go straight R in fear of the mob? Hopefully more than the propaganda press is reporting.

The problem is people are social creatures and don’t want to be ostracized or considered a bad person. Culturally the left owns the field. It’s not safe to be unapologetically on the right in our common culture.

How that effects private votes I don’t know.
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 12:20:21 PM by Ron »
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

DittoHead

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2018, 12:10:38 PM »
I'm sticking with my previous prediction for the house, probably more like R+3 in the senate.
My money would be on enough of a blue wave in the house for the Dems to take control there and cause some problems (endless investigations). The senate will stay about the same though.

No high level departures (Sessions or Kelly) until early 2019.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

Scout26

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2018, 12:12:58 PM »
I would perhaps count noses of those spouting off the leftist mantras, versus those choosing to remain quiet.  Once you have that ratio, that may provide you with some idea as to how they will vote. (And maybe a larger picture as to how the election will break, at least the local ones.)
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

MechAg94

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2018, 12:41:23 PM »
It’s hard to tell.

On the ground most on the right aren’t engaging in public virtue signaling. At work I’ve watched those on the right quietly listen to the leftists rant and not bother engaging them.

Why argue on social media with NPC’s? They will just follow their script and call you names.

So who knows how many will quietly go to the polls and go straight R in fear of the mob? Hopefully more than the propaganda press is reporting.

The problem is people are social creatures and don’t want to be ostracized or considered a bad person. Culturally the left owns the field. It’s not safe to be unapologetically on the right in our common culture.

How that effects private votes I don’t know.
These days Corporate management and HR groups are liberal and/or the company policies are liberal.  If someone decided they don't like you, they can do a lot to screw you over or just get you fired even if you don't actually saying anything bad.  I think most people would prefer to keep their opinions private at least in a big office work environment.  
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Scout26

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2018, 12:59:10 PM »
The major problem the D's have was that the only thing they had to do, THE ONLY THING, to flip the House, and perhaps the Senate, is

"Don't be crazy".

However, the closer we get to election day, the more the Batcrap is coming out.  They can only keep it buried fro so long...
« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 04:30:10 PM by Amy Schumer »
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

brimic

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2018, 02:24:12 PM »
The US looks like a larger version of what WI was back around 2011.
The left is going to lose, they will amplify their *expletive deleted*it flinging, and lose some more, continuing to small to no gains until they corral their jackasses and start to look like sane people again.
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

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Ben

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2018, 02:28:13 PM »

However, the closer we get to election day, the more the Batcrap is coming out.  They can only keep it buried fro so long...

Much harder to keep it buried when freakin' senators and congresspeople are actually at the forefront and encouraging it. You can write off the lone "handmaid" or whoever that goes on a rampage. People like Maxine Waters trying to mainstream that stuff are a big part of their impending failure, IMO.
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Angel Eyes

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2018, 02:30:41 PM »
People like Maxine Waters trying to mainstream that stuff are a big part of their impending failure, IMO.

The question is: how many innocent folks will they hurt/kill as they spiral downward?



(ETA: looks like some on the Right are beginning to push back:  https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/Former-state-GOP-official-warns-Trump-protesters-13317874.php)
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230RN

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2018, 02:51:20 PM »
Ron said, in part:

Quote
On the ground most on the right aren’t engaging in public virtue signaling. At work I’ve watched those on the right quietly listen to the leftists rant and not bother engaging them.

Why argue on social media with NPC’s? They will just follow their script and call you names.
...

Rings true to me.  My major concern is that the "red is inevitable" S+3 attitude will result in a lot of conservatives not voting.  In that sense, thank G-d for mail-in voting, but we'll see.

Frankly, a red swing to me will mean a total defeat of mainstream "news" outlets and maybe even some firing of MSM puppets.  We've had a de facto Ministry of Propaganda for far too long.  It would also be nice to think that many of the entertainment rodents will skulk back to their filthy nests.

Heh.  Talk about name-calling, huh?

Terry, 230RN

« Last Edit: October 18, 2018, 03:03:22 PM by 230RN »

Angel Eyes

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Scout26

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2018, 04:40:51 PM »
The question is: how many innocent folks will they hurt/kill as they spiral downward?



(ETA: looks like some on the Right are beginning to push back:  https://www.lmtonline.com/news/article/Former-state-GOP-official-warns-Trump-protesters-13317874.php)


Yep, it's only a matter of time before antifa *expletive deleted*s with the wrong (armed) person...
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Perd Hapley

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2018, 04:48:40 PM »
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charby

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2018, 07:11:33 PM »
GOP keeps Senate, +1
GOP keeps House, but only by 1 or 2 members.

Trump still president.
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Chester32141

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2018, 07:32:04 PM »
"The best argument against democracy is a 5 minute conversation with the average voter...... "

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Ben

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #23 on: October 22, 2018, 10:08:00 AM »
Funny how polling is all over the board. Yesterday Fox News said the "blue wave" was in trouble, today they say the GOP is.  :laugh:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/early-voting-points-to-massive-turnout-warning-signs-for-gop

I think, as far as "voting stragglers", this is going to come down to a larger issue within a week of the election (to account for when much of early voting happens). Right now it looks like the "migrant army", depending on how fast they (and I read there is another one forming in Guatemala right now) get to the US border.

My belief is that even moderate progs, who are sympathetic to illegal aliens, have a problem with a large influx like this, especially when they do things like destroy and overwhelm barriers. These aren't people sneaking in, or begging to be let in. These are people demanding entrance. I think that's a turn off even to the moderate progs. While it certainly won't make them turn into Trumpites, it might sour them on the midterms. It will certainly energize more of the right.
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makattak

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Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #24 on: October 22, 2018, 11:12:41 AM »
I honestly have no idea what the results will be as the polls are notoriously bad about predicting mid-term election turn-out.

/put analyst hat on

What I can tell, is that the Democrats seem to have really gotten their base motivated in the mid-term elections, which the Democrats have traditionally fared badly as their base tends to be less engaged.

HOWEVER, looking at minority polling and other members of the "base", the section of their base most motivated seems to be the extreme left (i.e. not the minorities, who make up another significant part) and that extreme left tends to be very clustered.

So, my view is that the Democrats are likely going to see a HUGE turnout... in elections there were going to win anyway and the close elections will break Republican, as the insane left has turned moderates away and increased interest of the Republican/Trump base. (Two related, but different groups.)

Effect will be further concentration of the left into their self-segregated cities, prompting further cries about how it was all a consequence of "jerrymandering." (Ignoring that fact that the VAST majority of the "problem" for Dems is their choice to pander to the concerns of city-dwellers to the detriment of everyone else.)

/analyst hat off

Back to cynical me- I'm expecting the Democrats are going to win, despite all the above and we'll suffer through 2 - 6 years of them supporting the bureaucracy in stymieing Trump's agenda.

I'm HOPING to be surprised, but this is a country that voted for Obama, TWICE.  

I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought