Author Topic: Place Your Bets !!!  (Read 13474 times)

makattak

  • Dark Lord of the Cis
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,022
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #100 on: November 07, 2018, 06:11:09 AM »
And there you have it, the Dems had their blue wave, although it wasn't as big as they had hoped.  The Dems took the House, +34.  The Reps kept the Senate, actually gaining three seats.

If those numbers hold up, that's right in line with the historical average loss for a president's first midterm...


Making Trump a completely normal President. After 2 years of constant demonization.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

brimic

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,270
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #101 on: November 07, 2018, 08:46:34 AM »
So the dems control the house now... does that mean we finally get the death camps that they promised?
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

"AK47's belong in the hands of soldiers mexican drug cartels"-
Barack Obama

Pb

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 4,887
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #102 on: November 07, 2018, 08:50:52 AM »
I would say now that will get no illegal immigration control, no wall, and no pro-gun legislation... but who would I be kidding?  The vile Republican Party would have never given us any of those things anyway.

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #103 on: November 07, 2018, 08:58:29 AM »
My initial thoughts:

The Senate now has enough votes to go to town on judicial nominees without having to worry about any of their own "Flaking out". That is, given that the "Lyndsey Graham effect" continues.

If Pelosi becomes speaker, and Waters heads the financial services committee, the nutzo soundbites and ideas they will create should lock the house into R hands in 2020. Waters is talking about "destroying" Wall Street and forcing banks to give out the same kinds of home loans to everyone with their hands out that caused the last crisis.

I was wondering if celebrities learned their lessons on telling people how to vote, specifically regarding the Tennessee and Texas examples. Then I woke up this morning to "Beto for President!", so I guess not.

From now on, whenever I hear the phrase, "Popular senate vote" out of someone's piehole in anything other than derision, I will immediately ignore anything they say on anything.

There may still be some hope on immigration depending on how things like the "caravan" play out. Health care is toast for now, and I fully expect my premiums to double before 2020. Gun legislation is also toast on the Federal level. At least anti-gun legislation is also (hopefully) toast as well. As I mentioned elsewhere, it sure would have been nice to get some pro-gun legislation through while the majority held - at least hearing protection or national reciprocity, but oh well.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #104 on: November 07, 2018, 09:06:20 AM »
Hopefully Trump and his team have a solid long game.

All those retiring R’s were part of the swamp draining. They were always a big part of the problem.

Would have been nice to hold the house but having the Democrats display their craziness and ignorance while in power for the next two years could bring in a wave of MAGA men and women in ‘20

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

DittoHead

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 1,574
  • Writing for the Bulwark since August 2019
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #105 on: November 07, 2018, 09:06:48 AM »
Well that went pretty much how it was predicted to, polsters did an OK job.
https://www.weeklystandard.com/david-byler/why-you-should-trust-the-polls
The house will be pain in Trumps butt, but his legislative agenda was pretty much done for already (sad!) and the Senate was already doing OK with judicial confirmations. That will get a little smoother now.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2018, 10:25:23 AM by DittoHead »
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

AJ Dual

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 16,162
  • Shoe Ballistics Inc.
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #106 on: November 07, 2018, 02:38:23 PM »
I am deeply disappointed about Walker’s loss. I think it was a combination of things.  Much like the national mid-term flip, there’s been only one WI governor since WWII who managed to keep his seat same party as the first term POTUS. So Walker had that trend working against him.  Evers probably got some coattails from Tammy Baldwin’s Senate re-election.  Several Wisconsin counties got (worthless advisory non-binding) marijuana referendums on their ballots. I’m guessing that it was a coordinated effort knowing that it would help with Leftist/Democrat leaning turnout.  And at the end of the day, Wisconsin still tends to just be rather “purple” and fickle.  

At least WI had no upsets or surprises that went against the GOP in the state legislative races, or our WI Congressional seats in D.C.  Randy Bryce, the ultra-lefty union iron worker who’s been gunning for Paul Ryan’s seat was handily defeated. And what was probably the worst leftist smear campaign in the state to defeat Dale Kooyenga failed.

As WI Education superintendent, Tony Evers is a nobody, a cipher, and rather lazy. He is awkward and goofy in terms of appearance and presentation. So he does not have good optics working for him at all. (Imagine a skinny Bernie Sanders with a better haircut, and no charisma…)  His direction and initiatives will be coming largely from whatever busybodies infest his administration.  Evers will be mostly a lame duck from the get-go as the GOP held onto the WI Assembly and Senate with decent margins. So nothing major legislatively will be coming from him or the Democrats. However, he will be able to force some significant compromises every two years as WI is constitutionally obligated to pass a budget, and the WI governor has got a fair amount of power with the line-item veto. Which is in contrast to the relationship POTUS and COTUS have federally, where POTUS does not have line-item veto, and COTUS does not have to create or pass a budget, they can just keep passing continuing funding resolutions indefinitely.

Overall though, the “blue wave” definitely failed to materialize. As noted by others, the GOP losses in the House last night are on the lower end of averages for such midterm election turnover. The wind was at the Democrats backs with the normal historical midterm momentum, which was then supposed to be turbocharged by the Resistance and Trump Derangement Syndrome. By that standard it was a big fizzle. Mainly the Democrats have merely avoided destruction, or the fracture of the party into two separate parties, one hard left, the other moderate. And all the other fallout that failing to gain back anything, or that a red wave would have caused for them.

From what I’ve overheard anecdotally from Democrats around me at work, they’re mostly disappointed in Beto’s loss in TX and Gillum’s loss in FL. They’re not exited or jubilant about Evers or WI at all.

 

I promise not to duck.

Angel Eyes

  • Lying dog-faced pony soldier
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,257
  • You're not diggin'
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #107 on: November 07, 2018, 03:18:06 PM »
The markets seem happy.  Dow is up over 500 points at this writing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/stock-futures-open-flat-as-investors-await-midterm-elections-results.html

Happy that Republicans still hold the Senate?  Or they like Trump's overtures of bipartisanship?
"I make love to men daily, but in the imagination."
                         - Barack Obama

brimic

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 14,270
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #108 on: November 07, 2018, 03:29:20 PM »
I am deeply disappointed about Walker’s loss. I think it was a combination of things.  Much like the national mid-term flip, there’s been only one WI governor since WWII who managed to keep his seat same party as the first term POTUS. So Walker had that trend working against him.  Evers probably got some coattails from Tammy Baldwin’s Senate re-election.  Several Wisconsin counties got (worthless advisory non-binding) marijuana referendums on their ballots. I’m guessing that it was a coordinated effort knowing that it would help with Leftist/Democrat leaning turnout.  And at the end of the day, Wisconsin still tends to just be rather “purple” and fickle.  

At least WI had no upsets or surprises that went against the GOP in the state legislative races, or our WI Congressional seats in D.C.  Randy Bryce, the ultra-lefty union iron worker who’s been gunning for Paul Ryan’s seat was handily defeated. And what was probably the worst leftist smear campaign in the state to defeat Dale Kooyenga failed.

As WI Education superintendent, Tony Evers is a nobody, a cipher, and rather lazy. He is awkward and goofy in terms of appearance and presentation. So he does not have good optics working for him at all. (Imagine a skinny Bernie Sanders with a better haircut, and no charisma…)  His direction and initiatives will be coming largely from whatever busybodies infest his administration.  Evers will be mostly a lame duck from the get-go as the GOP held onto the WI Assembly and Senate with decent margins. So nothing major legislatively will be coming from him or the Democrats. However, he will be able to force some significant compromises every two years as WI is constitutionally obligated to pass a budget, and the WI governor has got a fair amount of power with the line-item veto. Which is in contrast to the relationship POTUS and COTUS have federally, where POTUS does not have line-item veto, and COTUS does not have to create or pass a budget, they can just keep passing continuing funding resolutions indefinitely.

Overall though, the “blue wave” definitely failed to materialize. As noted by others, the GOP losses in the House last night are on the lower end of averages for such midterm election turnover. The wind was at the Democrats backs with the normal historical midterm momentum, which was then supposed to be turbocharged by the Resistance and Trump Derangement Syndrome. By that standard it was a big fizzle. Mainly the Democrats have merely avoided destruction, or the fracture of the party into two separate parties, one hard left, the other moderate. And all the other fallout that failing to gain back anything, or that a red wave would have caused for them.

From what I’ve overheard anecdotally from Democrats around me at work, they’re mostly disappointed in Beto’s loss in TX and Gillum’s loss in FL. They’re not exited or jubilant about Evers or WI at all.

 



Pretty much, exactly.
With the Rs holding the state senate and assembly, Evers is going to be kept on a tight leash, plus he is no where near as intelligent and underhanded as Doyle was, so he isn't going to cause much harm. At worst, he's a placeholder until the next election, at best he'll look like a buffoon who has obviously been peter principled out of his league.
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

"AK47's belong in the hands of soldiers mexican drug cartels"-
Barack Obama

RocketMan

  • Mad Rocket Scientist
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,578
  • Semper Fidelis
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #109 on: November 07, 2018, 05:25:21 PM »
Would have been nice to hold the house but having the Democrats display their craziness and ignorance while in power for the next two years could bring in a wave of MAGA men and women in ‘20.

Their craziness has been on full display for two years already.  I doubt another two years on display will change anything.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

French G.

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,184
  • ohhh sparkles!
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #110 on: November 07, 2018, 06:46:12 PM »
The markets seem happy.  Dow is up over 500 points at this writing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/06/stock-futures-open-flat-as-investors-await-midterm-elections-results.html

Happy that Republicans still hold the Senate?  Or they like Trump's overtures of bipartisanship?


The markets like gridlock and certainty. Nothing major bad going to happen for two years.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

Hawkmoon

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,197
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #111 on: November 07, 2018, 07:20:33 PM »

From now on, whenever I hear the phrase, "Popular senate vote" out of someone's piehole in anything other than derision, I will immediately ignore anything they say on anything.


Someone should inform them that they got popular vote for senators in 1913. https://www.usconstitution.net/xconst_Am17.html
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
100% Politically Incorrect by Design

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #112 on: November 07, 2018, 08:52:05 PM »
Well anyways, it appears "white women" are at fault for the lack of a blue tsunami. I guess that's okay, because it gives us white men a break for a while from everything being our fault.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Hawkmoon

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,197
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #113 on: November 07, 2018, 09:34:00 PM »
Stay tuned on Arizona. Apparently it's still too close to call, and may not be resolved until December -- and that's only if whichever side is declared the loser doesn't take it to court. I'm still hoping McSally pulls it out, not just because she's a Republican but also because she has some solid credentials and experience, and the D is a space cadet.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
100% Politically Incorrect by Design

Scout26

  • I'm a leaf on the wind.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 25,997
  • I spent a week in that town one night....
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #114 on: November 08, 2018, 07:00:30 AM »
Stay tuned on Arizona. Apparently it's still too close to call, and may not be resolved until December -- and that's only if whichever side is declared the loser doesn't take it to court. I'm still hoping McSally pulls it out, not just because she's a Republican but also because she has some solid credentials and experience, and the D is a space cadet.

McSally has a 19k vote lead.  Not sure how many absentee ballots need to be counted.  Hopefully Sinema will concede and go back to playing "The Dirty Librarian" in pron movies.  (At least that was my first thought the first time I saw a picture of her in those glasses....)
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,622
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #115 on: November 08, 2018, 09:53:29 AM »
Their craziness has been on full display for two years already.  I doubt another two years on display will change anything.
I was thinking the same thing.  However, I heard a few points yesterday that might be relevant.

1.  While turnout was big for a midterm, it didn't rise to the same turnout for a Presidential election.  Not sure if that is good or bad, but it does leave room for a different outcome.

2.  Paul Ryan and the House Republican leadership were never very helpful to Trump.  Ryan most definitely was not.  The Senate did work with Trump especially on judicial appointments.  It certainly appears that they candidates that worked with the White House and sought Trump's support in their election did okay.  Those that didn't work with Trump, did not do as well.  Just a generalization, but something to consider.

3.  Republicans don't have a majority in all of Congress anymore.  It will be interesting to see how Trump and Republicans use that.  It will also be interesting to see if Democrats try to continue their "Attack Trump" plan or if they try to appear as statesmen and set themselves up better for 2020. 

Lots of things can happen in 2 years.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

makattak

  • Dark Lord of the Cis
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,022
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #116 on: November 08, 2018, 10:04:53 AM »
Well anyways, it appears "white women" are at fault for the lack of a blue tsunami. I guess that's okay, because it gives us white men a break for a while from everything being our fault.

This is an interesting... tactic.

They've been demonizing white men for a very long time, and have driven up their voting percentage for Republicans.

Seeing how well that tactic worked, they have moved on to white women, too... "WHY WON'T YOU RUBES JUST DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD AND DIE OFF ALREADY!"

This seems sure to turn out well for Democrats.


They'll also start complaining about white people voting like an identity group very shortly and scream about how Republicans are dividing the country by race.

I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #117 on: November 08, 2018, 10:18:09 AM »
The Dems have nearly half of white women voting for them pretty regularly already don’t they?

How many more are they going to pick up through public shaming?

I cannot tell you how many times I’ve heard white women complaining about white males and how we are the big problem in America.

Clown world, I’m in it.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

DittoHead

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 1,574
  • Writing for the Bulwark since August 2019
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #118 on: November 08, 2018, 12:21:28 PM »
McSally has a 19k vote lead.  Not sure how many absentee ballots need to be counted. 
Gotta watch out for those absentee ballots that show up late...
Evers, the state schools chief, eventually edged Walker by about 29,000 votes.

Milwaukee County Clerk George Chistenson said his office received about 46,000 early and absentee ballots from the city long after all other votes had been counted in the county. The city waited to tally those votes until it finished counting other ballots.

From those late ballots, Evers received 38,674 votes, or 84% of the total, and Walker 7,181.

[tinfoil]
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

Perd Hapley

  • Superstar of the Internet
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 61,332
  • My prepositions are on/in
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #119 on: November 08, 2018, 01:09:30 PM »
And there you have it, the Dems had their blue wave, although it wasn't as big as they had hoped.  The Dems took the House, +34.  The Reps kept the Senate, actually gaining three seats.


Even some in the legacy media have said there was no blue wave.
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife

RocketMan

  • Mad Rocket Scientist
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,578
  • Semper Fidelis
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #120 on: November 09, 2018, 05:47:16 AM »
McSally has a 19k vote lead.  Not sure how many absentee ballots need to be counted.  Hopefully Sinema will concede and go back to playing "The Dirty Librarian" in pron movies.  (At least that was my first thought the first time I saw a picture of her in those glasses....)

McSally is now down by 9600 votes with 99.7% of the precincts tallied.  Unless recounts or lawsuits prolong things, she's toast.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #121 on: November 09, 2018, 09:23:08 AM »
Bummer if McSally loses.

In other news, apparently Broward County, FL is just gonna keep finding ballots and counting votes until their candidate wins.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #122 on: November 09, 2018, 10:50:59 AM »
CA still has 4.5 million ballots to count. I thought this was an interesting quote:

Quote
“Later voters are much more progressive and diverse,” said Paul Mitchell, a political consultant and vice president of the bipartisan voter data firm Political Data. “That means if Republicans are in a contest where the vote difference is a percent or two, that is something that historically isn’t enough to withstand the ballots that are going to come in.”

When I read that, I think of the lazy, unorganized people who show up late for work and everything else and think the world revolves around them. "We'll vote whenever we want. The rules don't apply to us, and if you don't let us show up at our leisure, we'll scream voter repression!"

http://amp.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article221392480.html
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

TommyGunn

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 7,956
  • Stuck in full auto since birth.
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #123 on: November 09, 2018, 11:15:49 AM »
McSally is now down by 9600 votes with 99.7% of the precincts tallied.  Unless recounts or lawsuits prolong things, she's toast.

I cannot remember McSally's opponent's name offhand ( :facepalm: )  but she once said she'd be O.K.  with someone joining the Taliban.   Stinks if she gets in.  In other ways too.

But we get the goverment we so richly deserve.  >:D
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

TechMan

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 10,562
  • Yes, your moderation has been outsourced.
Re: Place Your Bets !!!
« Reply #124 on: November 09, 2018, 02:50:01 PM »
Bummer if McSally loses.

In other news, apparently Broward County, FL is just gonna keep finding ballots and counting votes until their candidate wins.

They are being assisted by Palm Beach county. https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2018/11/09/whoa-thread-on-floridas-voting-laws-broward-and-palm-beach-counties-and-brenda-snipes-is-so-damning/
Quote
Hawkmoon - Never underestimate another person's capacity for stupidity. Any time you think someone can't possibly be that dumb ... they'll prove you wrong.

Bacon and Eggs - A day's work for a chicken; A lifetime commitment for a pig.
Stupidity will always be its own reward.
Bad decisions make good stories.

Quote
Viking - The problem with the modern world is that there aren't really any predators eating stupid people.