Place Your Bets !!!

[Scout26]

From the same fine folks that said Hillary was a 90% lock back in 2016...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

[DittoHead]

From the same fine folks that said Hillary was a 90% lock back in 2016...

Did they rewrite their prediction or something?

Hillary Clinton
71.4%
Donald Trump
28.6%

[Scout26]

Sorry 80%. 

https://www.aol.com/article/2016/06/29/nate-silver-hillary-clinton-has-a-near-80-percent-chance-of-win/21421192/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S8jlymRjiO8

[Ben]

From the same fine folks that said Hillary was a 90% lock back in 2016...

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/

Interesting. I just voted for my last time in CA. Regionally, and even nationally (Hi NPR!) Devin Nunes is shown to be in serious trouble. This poll has him at a 19 in 20, which I believe is more correct than most everything else I've been hearing from people who apparently know nothing of the politics around here. I'm curious about their methodology.

[freakazoid]

LOL, anyone else hear that in Morgan Freeman's voice?

I went with Nick Offerman. He did "the narrator" in that youtube video that took place in a western saloon.

[RoadKingLarry]

Man, it's a tough call.
I haven't seen anything on the national level but here in the reddest of red states, Oklahoma, we have some interesting statistics.
Voter registration stats show that of people changing their party of registration 50% Republican, 26% to Democrat and the rest split between independent and Libertarian.

[MillCreek]

In our state election, I was interested to see myself voting for all Republicans for my three state representatives.  I am an independent, and I cross party lines to vote for the best candidate.  This time, all three who best represented my interests and my locality were Republicans.

[Ben]

While it's beginning to look like the Ds may take the house by a seat or two, I really, really want them to lose now only to break Pelosi. People call Trump self-absorbed, self-important and arrogant? Man, she's got him beat by a mile.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-makes-a-bold-prediction-democrats-will-w

[TommyGunn]

While it's beginning to look like the Ds may take the house by a seat or two, I really, really want them to lose now only to break Pelosi. People call Trump self-absorbed, self-important and arrogant? Man, she's got him beat by a mile.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/pelosi-makes-a-bold-prediction-democrats-will-w

  Too close to call .... could go either way.    Pelosi is blabbing to shore up demorat base.   That could  be interpreted to mean they're worried.

[DittoHead]

I always find the polls & expectations game kind of funny. Some people say that one side is over-inflating their polls to tamp down enthusiasm on the other side. Other people say that their race is closer than it actually is to motivate people to vote. Everyone seems to want to be confident they are going to win but still be the underdog.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ronna-mcdaniel-republican-midterm-polling/

[MechAg94]

I always find the polls & expectations game kind of funny. Some people say that one side is over-inflating their polls to tamp down enthusiasm on the other side. Other people say that their race is closer than it actually is to motivate people to vote. Everyone seems to want to be confident they are going to win but still be the underdog.

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/ronna-mcdaniel-republican-midterm-polling/

I have seen fundraising emails from Republicans making it appear a loss is imminent, they just need my money to help them pull out a win.  I am getting tired of that.

Rush mentioned a little while ago that almost no one predicts midterm elections correctly.  I don't think anyone knows.  I just won't worry about it at this point.  I have already voted.  Everyone I know has voted.  Nothing to do but wait. 

[gunsmith]

i used to be able to predict elections, i have been wrong and wrong and wrong recently.
on the way to the cafe/wifi i sincerely prayed for a red tsunami

[Pb]

I've proven, I can't predict anything to do with elections.  Gloriously, gloriously wrong, in the case of the Trump election!  I remember going to bed all depressed the night before... my wife woke up up the next day with "Who do you think you won the election?"  "Hillary."  "No, Trump."

WHAT!!!!!   

Trumps a jerk with no principles, but as a president he is above average, and that is saying something.

[Ben]

This is more about the gubernatorial races, but I was somewhat shocked to see the Che wannabe ahead in polls in Florida. While I wouldn't be shocked to see a dem win the governor's race in that state, I will be shocked if someone that far left wins.

He actually seems farther left than Gavin Newsom, who, sadly, looks to be a lock in CA. I am leaving none too soon.

[RoadKingLarry]

The early voting turn out here has been very strong

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/oklahoma/articles/2018-11-02/early-oklahoma-voting-numbers-suggest-turnout-increase

What I've seen from other states looks to be similar with many reporting record or near record registrations and turn out.

Looks like something is going on, too soon to tell which way the tree is gonna fall.

[DittoHead]

Now is the time to get on the record and earn your prognosticator credentials.

I'm not familiar with this outfit but they have a decent breakdown

D +34 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +10 in governorships

The RINO analysis here is interesting, and something a lot of people probably don't want to hear. It also could be proven wrong...

D +32 in House, R +1 in Senate, D +9 in governorships

I'm sticking with my previous prediction, which isn't far from the above (slightly smaller D gain in the house but still enough for a majority).
I will also add a final prediction: The Hearing Protection Act is done for. 

[Ben]

I will also add a final prediction: The Hearing Protection Act is done for. 

I'm severely disappointed on the gun rights front. It all went the way of health care reform - to the back burner. Now it will likely be too late for any meaningful legislation to get past gridlock. Even if hope against hope the Rs keep a majority, they don't seem as interested in it as they did pre-NOV 2018 and a few months into Trump's term. Imagine that.

I suppose there are always EOs for some minor stuff, but I'm not crazy about EOs as they all too often follow the Harry Reid strategy.

[RocketMan]

I'm thinking Dems take the house.  I have no clue as to the margin, but I suspect they will have a decent majority that will make it impossible to flip enough squishy Dems to get any of The Stupid Party's legislation acted on.  They may also take the Senate by one or two seats.  Governorships, I have no clue.

[BobR]

I have no way of figuring this one out. A lot of new voters that have bought into the "Hate Trump" mindset who have no idea of the real issues in this election. They are answering the rally cry to resist and vote anything but Trump or anything/anyone he supports.

I hope the conservative leaning independents get out to vote and vote for something other than a losing 3rd party candidate. I also hope the true conservatives who back Trump and his policies get out to vote because this election is going to come down to sheer numbers with everything being polled out as so close. I have started to believe polls don't mean very much, too many people lie to the pollsters about who they are supporting (if conservative) and it skews everything.

I am somewhat optimistic and think the Rs will hold the Senate with a few gains and possibly hold the House by a very thin margin.

bob

[RoadKingLarry]

I'm kind of hoping for a roar from the conservative silent majority.


Hay, a guy can dream can't he?

And come on, the same pollsters that are telling us the dems are gonna have their blue wave are the same pollsters that told us Hillary was a lock.

[French G.]

If the Dems win the house it is a gift to trump 2020 or his survivors if they manage to get him.

[DittoHead]

If the Dems win the house it is a gift to trump 2020 or his survivors if they manage to get him.

You're not alone in that assessment

there are lots of people in Trump World who want Trump to run against the Democratic Congress in 2020. So if you’re someone wholly invested in Trump’s personal political advantages, you could take a strategic flier and not vote Republican tomorrow.

But I doubt many people are confident enough in such a strategy to actually vote for it.

The big question is turnout. So much of the polling depends on accurate analysis of 'likely voters'. Early voting is already off the charts but even that can be interpreted different ways.

[makattak]

The big question is turnout. So much of the polling depends on accurate analysis of 'likely voters'. Early voting is already off the charts but even that can be interpreted different ways.

Well, in my (Democrat leaning) precinct, I went in and voted this morning and then got back in the car to hear on the radio "we are hearing reports of longer than expected lines at polling places this morning, so plan accordingly."

I have to admit, the line was much longer at my polling place. Instead of no one being there, there was one person in line in front of me. I can't even quantify how large a percentage change that is!

[MechAg94]

I'm severely disappointed on the gun rights front. It all went the way of health care reform - to the back burner. Now it will likely be too late for any meaningful legislation to get past gridlock. Even if hope against hope the Rs keep a majority, they don't seem as interested in it as they did pre-NOV 2018 and a few months into Trump's term. Imagine that.

I suppose there are always EOs for some minor stuff, but I'm not crazy about EOs as they all too often follow the Harry Reid strategy.

Did you really expect gun rights legislation passed in the first two years?  I think that was a bunch of wishful thinking.  Even if Trump would sign it, I think either Ryan or McConnell were against it.  I would have liked to see more effort in reducing the processing time in the ATF and maybe some executive level changes on imports, but I am happy with what was done on other issues.

Trump still hasn't even gotten all his appointments approved.  I think the high expectations is why midterm elections generally go against the party with the President in office. 

[Ben]

Did you really expect gun rights legislation passed in the first two years?  I think that was a bunch of wishful thinking.  Even if Trump would sign it, I think either Ryan or McConnell were against it.  I would have liked to see more effort in reducing the processing time in the ATF and maybe some executive level changes on imports, but I am happy with what was done on other issues.

Trump still hasn't even gotten all his appointments approved.  I think the high expectations is why midterm elections generally go against the party with the President in office. 

If not in the first two years with a majority, then when? While I am also happy with much of what Trump has done, and recognize that it is stuff that affects many more Americans than gun owners, that's kinda the point.

We gun owners are not as important in the scheme of things as we think we are. If gun rights legislation can't get passed when the administration and majority are "riding high", the probability of anything getting done drops like a 1920s stock market. Unless by some miracle, R's get even more seats in the house and senate today, significant pro-gun legislation is likely done for the next two years. We might be able to hold back anti-gun legislation, but even that's not guaranteed since Trump had no problems with bump stock bans after Vegas.

With a D majority, Trump will be spending all his time in the next two years trying to save his economic agenda, which is probably the smart use of resources. Then he might take on health care again. Gun stuff will be well down the list.