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Author Topic: Place Your Bets !!!  (Read 2577 times)
Ron
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« Reply #25 on: October 22, 2018, 07:52:23 AM »

The safe bet is Maks analysis.

We are a nation of NPCís so my expectations are low.

A virtue signal vote against Trump and the Republicans makes sure you donít lose any social status, ensuring you wonít be singled out amongst the herd. Moving with the herd keeps you safer.

This is especially important among women who tend to lean left.



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The wish not to believe can influence as strongly as the wish to believe.

Who can escape their own cognitive biases?
MechAg94
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« Reply #26 on: October 22, 2018, 02:34:01 PM »

Elections are secret ballot.  No one knows how you voted unless you tell them.  Also, no ones know if you voted at all really. 
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"Envy was once considered to be one of the seven deadly sins before it became one of the most admired virtues under its new name, 'social justice.'"   Thomas Sowell
Ron
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« Reply #27 on: October 22, 2018, 02:49:45 PM »

Elections are secret ballot.  No one knows how you voted unless you tell them.  Also, no ones know if you voted at all really. 

Hopefully all the virtue signaling isnít backed up by action, going to the polls.

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The wish not to believe can influence as strongly as the wish to believe.

Who can escape their own cognitive biases?
French G.
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ohhh sparkles!


« Reply #28 on: October 23, 2018, 04:30:09 AM »

I will bet that the Beto loss will be one of the widest margins in awhile. Perhaps another opportunity to see how polls and media propped up a lie.
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MechAg94
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« Reply #29 on: October 23, 2018, 05:48:40 AM »

Hopefully all the virtue signaling isnít backed up by action, going to the polls.


All the virtue signaling is part of the social media outreach that many of these campaign efforts pay for.  It is all designed to look like a grass roots effort, but most of it is not.  The huge number of people showing up to hear President Trump at the Ted Cruz rally means more to me. 
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"Envy was once considered to be one of the seven deadly sins before it became one of the most admired virtues under its new name, 'social justice.'"   Thomas Sowell
Ben
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« Reply #30 on: October 23, 2018, 06:37:32 AM »

All the virtue signaling is part of the social media outreach that many of these campaign efforts pay for.  It is all designed to look like a grass roots effort, but most of it is not.  The huge number of people showing up to hear President Trump at the Ted Cruz rally means more to me. 

Yup. I was reading the Santa Barbara commie pinko rag (I have no idea why I keep doing that - it just spikes my blood pressure) a couple of weeks ago and they were talking about all the busloads of local commies going to Nevada to canvas for dem reps there.

Just like we keep hearing, "Hollywood is for Beto!" These people coming in from other states would likely not be happy with paid "grassroots" supporters coming in from out of state to canvas against their progressive candidates.

I do think this will continue to backfire as it did for whathisname in the south a while back. Nobody likes carpetbaggers.
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makattak
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« Reply #31 on: October 23, 2018, 06:50:17 AM »

Yup. I was reading the Santa Barbara commie pinko rag (I have no idea why I keep doing that - it just spikes my blood pressure) a couple of weeks ago and they were talking about all the busloads of local commies going to Nevada to canvas for dem reps there.

Just like we keep hearing, "Hollywood is for Beto!" These people coming in from other states would likely not be happy with paid "grassroots" supporters coming in from out of state to canvas against their progressive candidates.

I do think this will continue to backfire as it did for whathisname in the south a while back. Nobody likes carpetbaggers.

Ossof.

Yet another useless piece of information that I'd rather not have in my head.



It's interesting- the media and hollywood both had a time during which their efforts could see results. They could put their thumb on the scales to tip the balance toward their preferred outcomes.

The reason that worked was because they weren't obvious about it. They were subtle and pretended to be neutral or, at most, slightly left of center.

They've been doing it for too long and are now doing it so openly that I'm fairly certain it harms their causes.

But they can't stop because they've never had anyone on the other side insult them so much and they cannot adjust. Trump has their number and they have far too much hubris to re-examine their own efforts.
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"We make men without chests and expect from them virtue and enterprise. We laugh at honor and are shocked to find traitors in our midst."
dogmush
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« Reply #32 on: October 23, 2018, 07:21:07 AM »

Yup. I was reading the Santa Barbara commie pinko rag (I have no idea why I keep doing that - it just spikes my blood pressure) a couple of weeks ago and they were talking about all the busloads of local commies going to Nevada to canvas for dem reps there.

Just like we keep hearing, "Hollywood is for Beto!" These people coming in from other states would likely not be happy with paid "grassroots" supporters coming in from out of state to canvas against their progressive candidates.

I do think this will continue to backfire as it did for whathisname in the south a while back. Nobody likes carpetbaggers.


Wait.  So the Dems in CA are cool with trying to affect the outcome of other people's elections just because who gets elected might affect their state?

Спасибо, товарищ. Хорошо знать.
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Ben
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« Reply #33 on: October 23, 2018, 07:51:34 AM »


Wait.  So the Dems in CA are cool with trying to affect the outcome of other people's elections just because who gets elected might affect their state?

Спасибо, товарищ. Хорошо знать.

Sure, you can argue that a Senator affects more than the state they represent in their votes on Federal matters.

You can also argue that Texans probably should have more of a say in who represents their state (whether Cruz or "Beto") than Californians or residents of any other states, given we're a Republic of confederated states and all. Just like Californians should have more say and influence in who represents their state on the federal level on matters that affect all states.

What's happening now is way too much like democracy and "majority population rules". Not even majority population. A loud minority of people with willing media to spread their message everywhere and influence perception. The perception now is that "beto" is who Texas wants, him being a rock star and all. I think at this point I'm willing to bet real money that Cruz will comfortably take it.
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KD5NRH
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« Reply #34 on: October 24, 2018, 09:07:41 AM »

Personally, I like to see some bad news and discouraging poll numbers around this time, because I don't want any Conservatives thinking "we've got it in the bag, so Ican just skip voting, or not bother to remind grandma and take her to the polls."
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BTR
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« Reply #35 on: October 24, 2018, 10:12:17 AM »

The sad thing is, even the Rep party holds the house are we going to get:

Pro gun laws?
Immigration restrictions?
Funding for the wall?
Cutting funding to Planned Parenthood?
A sane budget?
An Obamacare repeal?

 rolleyes  No.  No we won't.  Because the Republican party actually doesn't want any of these things.
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Amy Schumer
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I spent a week in that town one night....


« Reply #36 on: October 24, 2018, 10:18:08 AM »

The sad thing is, even the Rep party holds the house are we going to get:

Pro gun laws?
Immigration restrictions?
Funding for the wall?
Cutting funding to Planned Parenthood?
A sane budget?
An Obamacare repeal?

 rolleyes  No.  No we won't.  Because the Republican party actually doesn't want any of these things.

I think we actually might.  McConnell has said he'd introduce Obamacare repeal. 
1.  We might get national reciprocity. 
2.  With these "Caravans" coming from Central America, we might actually get immigration reform and funding for a Border Wall.
3.  Maybe.
4.  Trump has already told his cabinet secretaries to cut their budgets by 5%.   It's a start.
5.  McConnell has already said he'd have another vote repealing Obamacare.

And with Trump leading (and winning), if they keep the House (and replace retiring RINO's with more conservative/libertarian R's) and increase their majority in Senate, then I would predict many of these will pass.
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Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on for the motherland.
BTR
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« Reply #37 on: October 24, 2018, 10:28:52 AM »

I wish I could believe you Amy.  But they have had a plenty of time to do any of those things.  And they didn't.   Not a single one.  angry
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Amy Schumer
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« Reply #38 on: October 24, 2018, 10:49:15 AM »

I wish I could believe you Amy.  But they have had a plenty of time to do any of those things.  And they didn't.   Not a single one.  angry

It took them time to jell behind/under Trump.  There were lots of NeverTrumpers in the R's for the first two years.  It's only been within the last year or so that the R's have grown a backbone.  Look at McConnell pushing through Trump's judges, and Lindsay Graham moving out form under McCain's shadow to show some spine.  Again, lots of RINOs/NeverTrumpers retiring.  McCain (who killed O-care repeal), is gone.  So IF the R's can hold the house, that stands a good chance of passing.

Just look at how all the R's ran from Trump right after the 2016 election to how many now are begging Trump to come campaign/hold a rally for them in the midterms.

Trump has been subject to every slur, innuendo, rumour, and even a bogus investigation and he not only has not been deterred he has also moved to implement and keep all his promises. 

And while he hasn't done what you have listed, yet.  He'd been busy putting Federalist Society judges on benches all across the country, and two on the Supreme Court.

And keep in mind, with some of those things (Immigration Reform, Funding for the Wall will require at least 60 votes in the Senate to pass), so only if the D's lose and lose badly on 6 Nov will we see those things.  Unless the R's can gain 10 seats in Senate.
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Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on for the motherland.
MechAg94
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« Reply #39 on: October 24, 2018, 11:30:16 AM »

If Dems lose badly, they might get a few Dems to vote for some new legislation.  Republicans like Jeff Flake are already out come next year.  His replacement is running for election. 

Remember Trump has already accomplished more than most Presidents in the first two years.  Just about any other choice for President would have done very little if anything in the political climate of the last two years. 

I heard Victor Davis Hanson mention that Trump acts crazy and gets all the attention while his appointees accomplish a lot behind the scenes without being noticed and tell everyone that if you don't deal with them, you have to deal with Trump.  Past Presidents have done the opposite. 
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"Envy was once considered to be one of the seven deadly sins before it became one of the most admired virtues under its new name, 'social justice.'"   Thomas Sowell
Warren
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« Reply #40 on: October 24, 2018, 11:37:18 AM »

A couple of canvassers for the lefty opponent to the incumbent just came by.

Told them I was voting for her. They marked that down on their clipboard.

narrator He was, in fact, not voting for her. /narrator

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MechAg94
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« Reply #41 on: October 24, 2018, 05:54:05 PM »

My boss, another coworker, and myself went over and voted early today.  If anyone is voting democrat in our location, they are keeping it quiet.  I am confident, but not absolutely confident.  We will see what happens. 

First step is keep R's in the majority.  I know what the Dems will try to do.  I hope the R's will do the things I want.  I think R's in the majority is a better bet right now.
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"Envy was once considered to be one of the seven deadly sins before it became one of the most admired virtues under its new name, 'social justice.'"   Thomas Sowell
Amy Schumer
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« Reply #42 on: October 25, 2018, 09:57:42 AM »

The sad thing is, even the Rep party holds the house are we going to get:

Pro gun laws?
Immigration restrictions?
Funding for the wall?
Cutting funding to Planned Parenthood?
A sane budget?
An Obamacare repeal?

 rolleyes  No.  No we won't.  Because the Republican party actually doesn't want any of these things.

I can also guarantee that we will get none of those if we put D's in charge in either chamber...
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Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on for the motherland.
DittoHead
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the healthiest individual ever


« Reply #43 on: October 25, 2018, 10:10:05 AM »

Speaking of Obamacare repeal... What the heck is this?
All Republicans support people with pre-existing conditions, and if they donít, they will after I speak to them. I am in total support. Also, Democrats will destroy your Medicare, and I will keep it healthy and well!
Republicans will totally protect people with Pre-Existing Conditions, Democrats will not! Vote Republican.
I've seen some other GOP politicians (Scott Walker for sure, and I think Rick Scott) saying the same things now.
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BobR
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« Reply #44 on: October 25, 2018, 10:13:43 AM »

A couple of canvassers for the lefty opponent to the incumbent just came by.

Told them I was voting for her. They marked that down on their clipboard.

narrator He was, in fact, not voting for her. /narrator



I tell whoever comes to the door I am voting for them, then tell them to get off my porch!!! Smiley

bob
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AJ Dual
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« Reply #45 on: October 25, 2018, 10:27:40 AM »

A couple of canvassers for the lefty opponent to the incumbent just came by.

Told them I was voting for her. They marked that down on their clipboard.

narrator He was, in fact, not voting for her. /narrator



LOL, anyone else hear that in Morgan Freeman's voice?
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Warren
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« Reply #46 on: October 25, 2018, 10:48:01 AM »

I told them that I couldn't open the door because of my cats, so they left a circular for her on my mat and when I finally got a chance to get to it I saw that it was all in Spanish.

It would have been one thing if it was a front and back deal with English on one side and Espanol on the other but nope, all Spanish. Though I'm not in favor of people who are not fluent enough in English to be voting (as how interested are they really in this country?). I do get that they can, and that  certain politicians are going to do outreach to them.

Now thanks to Duolingo I can parse some Spanish but they didn't know that. So that there is a level of competence that a person can take pride in!
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BTR
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« Reply #47 on: October 25, 2018, 12:30:35 PM »

Speaking of Obamacare repeal... What the heck is this?I've seen some other GOP politicians (Scott Walker for sure, and I think Rick Scott) saying the same things now.


Requiring companies to cover "pre-existing conditions" is one of the things that makes obamacare so obsencely expensive... Dumb move Trump.
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dogmush
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« Reply #48 on: October 25, 2018, 12:45:09 PM »

Requiring companies to cover "pre-existing conditions" is one of the things that makes obamacare so obsencely expensive... Dumb move Trump.

Not really a dumb move.  Trump's not really trying to make it cheaper, he's looking to say he rolled it back to the people that don't like it.

Even among the folks against Obamacare, not letting little Suzie die of Leukemia just because she already had it is one of the facets that a lot of people don't mind too much.  So he get's to throw a bone across the aisle to try and get some D votes, all he has to do is keep the part of Obamacare that is most liked by lots of folks, and if prices drop a little bit* he can claim credit, and if they don't he can blame the D's for making him compromise on whatever other thing he has to give them.  And so he'll look good to a whole bunch of his base, and some of the middle fence sitters.


*Prices don't even have to drop to the Pre-Obamacare levels.  By the time whatever "repeal" goes through the new prices will be 5 or 6 years old, and so if they go down to "just" 120% of what they were in 2009, that will be a big savings he can tout.  The kind of folks that are likely to look at the Pre-ACA costs, and figure out that it's still more expensive aren't going to vote for whomever the Democratic Primary vomits out in 2020 anyway.
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MechAg94
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« Reply #49 on: October 25, 2018, 01:38:55 PM »

If they make it private, there are a hundred ways to set it up.  Or just dump them in Medicare?  We will see. 

What Trump says and what actual legislation gets passed may not be quite the same thing.
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"Envy was once considered to be one of the seven deadly sins before it became one of the most admired virtues under its new name, 'social justice.'"   Thomas Sowell
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