Author Topic: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect  (Read 18350 times)

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #125 on: January 17, 2019, 09:07:16 AM »
Democrats canceled State of the Union address 😄

They probably came up with that idea while vacationing on the beach in Porta Rico
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,620
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #126 on: January 17, 2019, 09:18:36 AM »
I heard a suggestion that if the SOTU is canceled, Trump should rent a big stadium somewhere and hold his own rally/State of the Union.  It would be epic.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,620
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #127 on: January 17, 2019, 09:19:41 AM »
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/trumps_shutdown_trap.html

Quote
In only five more days of the already "longest government shutdown in history" (25 days and counting, as of today), a heretofore obscure threshold will be reached, enabling permanent layoffs of bureaucrats furloughed 30 days or more.

Read more: https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/trumps_shutdown_trap.html#ixzz5csHd5byV
Follow us: @AmericanThinker on Twitter | AmericanThinker on Facebook

Looks interesting, but I really doubt it will happen.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,741
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #128 on: January 17, 2019, 09:23:48 AM »
I heard a suggestion that if the SOTU is canceled, Trump should rent a big stadium somewhere and hold his own rally/State of the Union.  It would be epic.

I find it interesting that Pelosi is doing this "because shutdown". That says she expects the shutdown to still be in place on 29JAN. Doesn't sound like someone who wants the gov opened back up.

Also "security concerns" is extremely laughable.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Pb

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 4,887
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #129 on: January 17, 2019, 09:39:56 AM »
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/trumps_shutdown_trap.html

Looks interesting, but I really doubt it will happen.

Oh, that would be AMAZING!!!  Here's hoping!   :O

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #130 on: January 17, 2019, 09:45:30 AM »
I find it interesting that Pelosi is doing this "because shutdown". That says she expects the shutdown to still be in place on 29JAN. Doesn't sound like someone who wants the gov opened back up.

Also "security concerns" is extremely laughable.

Because the Dems have two calculations at play here:
1) federal workers are mostly democrats and a core constituency that won't switch sides (Trump froze federal pay this year as well)
2) they cannot hand Trump a win on the wall, as it's one of his major campaign promises.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

MillCreek

  • Skippy The Wonder Dog
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 19,963
  • APS Risk Manager
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #131 on: January 17, 2019, 09:53:04 AM »
I read the article on the Galveston plan.  Solely from the standpoint of managing the plan's assets, I would also eliminate withdrawal as a lump sum if the lump sum is over a set amount. Periodic payments or annuity only.  Not from the perspective of retirees not managing their money well, but to avoid a run on the fund.
_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #132 on: January 17, 2019, 09:57:30 AM »
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/01/trumps_shutdown_trap.html

Looks interesting, but I really doubt it will happen.

I've heard this from a few people. But looking at the list of agencies from this shut down, what's there to really cut?  rif'ing a few tens of thousands of federal employees is a drop in the bucket.  
People get wrapped up in the "non essential" bullshit.  
Would you like to know what kind of non essential stuff isn't being done in my agency right now?
Aircraft and aircrew Inspections
Aircraft registrations
Commercial drone waivers
Procedures and airspace work
That's just the tip of the iceberg.
Let me tell you a little story:
IAD built a third runway a few years back.  As part of the modernization of our equipment and procedures, we've been in the process of revamping all the instrument arrivals approaches to take full advantage of this.  We expected to have it completed by the end of this year. These procedures would give us the ability to maintain a high arrival rate under almost all circumstances with less personnel needed to do so.  It will save airlines time and money.  
That project is now halted and will fall months behind schedule.  At the same time, UAL is planning to increase traffic to IAD.  Metro is full steam ahead on the IAD line that will connect IAD to DC via light rail/metro, which is expected to increase passenger counts for IAD.  Other airlines are looking at increasing flights to IAD.  
The people who were spearheading that work on our end are either deemed "non essential" and on furlough, or were controllers on detail who've been kicked back to the operation.

I know there are plenty of federal employees who *expletive deleted*ck about most of the day and don't do any real work.  The idea that Trump knows exactly who they are, and has a master plan to rif out the lazy and useless ones is laughable.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,741
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #133 on: January 17, 2019, 10:07:12 AM »
Because the Dems have two calculations at play here:
1) federal workers are mostly democrats and a core constituency that won't switch sides (Trump froze federal pay this year as well)
2) they cannot hand Trump a win on the wall, as it's one of his major campaign promises.


Agree that those are two of their primary considerations. At some point I'm thinking they are going to overplay that hand. Right now I think it's still 50/50, or leaning a bit more to "Trumps fault" than theirs in public opinion. The longer this goes, especially with dems doing "obstruction" stuff, this could start running much more to "dems fault". Especially if Trump holds the SOTU*. There's another caravan of several thousand on their way up here, the timing of which could coincide with the SOTU. Depending on how Trump presents the SOTU, that could really increase "pro wall" (or pro multi-faceted border security) public opinion. It could force the dems to the table.

On the RIF stuff, I think that's a little dangerous. It could really backfire on Trump. IIRC, there was an "early retirement" option offered during Clinton. I can't remember if it coincided with that shutdown or was offered outside that. I know a lot of feds that would jump at an early retirement option that froze or disappeared their FTEs after they left. It would be a minor outlay of cash that reducse govt with little backlash. Admittedly it's a drop in the bucket.

Though Jamis (posted while I was typing) makes a good point: How do you weed out the slackards? The people I know that would take an early retirement mostly actually do good and necessary work. They would leave just to get away from the bullshit. Most of the slackards are slackards in real life as well, and couldn't afford to take an early retirement. They've got a good thing and know they would have a hard time getting a good job elsewhere, because they're slackards.

About the only way to RIF is to look at places like the EPA and eliminate entire program offices, versus picking and choosing employees. Which wouldn't really be a RIF, and also wouldn't weed out the good employees from the bad.


* He should absolutely hold the SOTU on time, in the Senate. All Senators and some of their guests get a seat. Other available seating goes to House reps by seniority. As the House is "the People's House" I find it interesting that a speaker even has the authority to refuse a President the SOTU, simply because they don't like him. "The People" have the right to hear what he has to say.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,620
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #134 on: January 17, 2019, 11:49:46 AM »
I've heard this from a few people. But looking at the list of agencies from this shut down, what's there to really cut?  rif'ing a few tens of thousands of federal employees is a drop in the bucket.  
People get wrapped up in the "non essential" bullshit.  
Would you like to know what kind of non essential stuff isn't being done in my agency right now?
Aircraft and aircrew Inspections
Aircraft registrations
Commercial drone waivers
Procedures and airspace work
That's just the tip of the iceberg.
Let me tell you a little story:
IAD built a third runway a few years back.  As part of the modernization of our equipment and procedures, we've been in the process of revamping all the instrument arrivals approaches to take full advantage of this.  We expected to have it completed by the end of this year. These procedures would give us the ability to maintain a high arrival rate under almost all circumstances with less personnel needed to do so.  It will save airlines time and money.  
That project is now halted and will fall months behind schedule.  At the same time, UAL is planning to increase traffic to IAD.  Metro is full steam ahead on the IAD line that will connect IAD to DC via light rail/metro, which is expected to increase passenger counts for IAD.  Other airlines are looking at increasing flights to IAD.  
The people who were spearheading that work on our end are either deemed "non essential" and on furlough, or were controllers on detail who've been kicked back to the operation.

I know there are plenty of federal employees who *expletive deleted*ck about most of the day and don't do any real work.  The idea that Trump knows exactly who they are, and has a master plan to rif out the lazy and useless ones is laughable.

If there were cuts to be made, I doubt it would be targeted too much.  I don't think Trump would get into the details that much and I bet something targeting slackers would be attacked in courts.  I would also be curious if he could go after departments or programs not affected by the shutdown.

I really doubt it would happen in any meaningful way, but it would be amusing if he did even if it was just a handful of people.  Even better if he targeted executive level people and their assistants.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #135 on: January 17, 2019, 12:00:51 PM »
If there were cuts to be made, I doubt it would be targeted too much.  I don't think Trump would get into the details that much and I bet something targeting slackers would be attacked in courts.  I would also be curious if he could go after departments or programs not affected by the shutdown.

I really doubt it would happen in any meaningful way, but it would be amusing if he did even if it was just a handful of people.  Even better if he targeted executive level people and their assistants.

That's probably where meaningful cuts to the bureaucracy could be made.  Numbers wise that wouldn't be that many people.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

MikeB

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 924
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #136 on: January 17, 2019, 12:46:59 PM »
I wonder if Trump instead of for the wall could use national emergency declaration to direct payment to essential employees. DHS, TSA, Air Traffic Controllers, etc.? That would probably mean we’d we wouldn’t have much in the way of shutdowns anymore of course. Or better give incentive to remove that power?

To be honest though I don’t think we should have a DHS, I don’t believe anything really improved after 9/11 from adding more government. Also TSA and Air Traffic Controllers should not be Federal employees. Sure Federal standards, licensing, monitoring or whatever. I may be missing something, but is there a direct benefit to these being Federal employees vs employees of the airports?

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #137 on: January 17, 2019, 01:12:03 PM »
I wonder if Trump instead of for the wall could use national emergency declaration to direct payment to essential employees. DHS, TSA, Air Traffic Controllers, etc.? That would probably mean we’d we wouldn’t have much in the way of shutdowns anymore of course. Or better give incentive to remove that power?

To be honest though I don’t think we should have a DHS, I don’t believe anything really improved after 9/11 from adding more government. Also TSA and Air Traffic Controllers should not be Federal employees. Sure Federal standards, licensing, monitoring or whatever. I may be missing something, but is there a direct benefit to these being Federal employees vs employees of the airports?

Only Congress has the power to appropriate funds.  If he declared a border emergency, he could direct the military to build the wall as they've had funds appropriated.  The shutdown agencies have no funds appropriated.  Hell, we just lost our TRO hearing and one of the arguments the judge made was that only congress can appropriate funds and he couldn't order congress to pay us.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

MikeB

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 924
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #138 on: January 17, 2019, 01:20:56 PM »
Only Congress has the power to appropriate funds.  If he declared a border emergency, he could direct the military to build the wall as they've had funds appropriated.  The shutdown agencies have no funds appropriated.  Hell, we just lost our TRO hearing and one of the arguments the judge made was that only congress can appropriate funds and he couldn't order congress to pay us.

I’m pretty sure Obama used a National emergency declaration to shift funds for the Zika Virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/11/obama-administration-to-shift-81-million-to-fight-zika/


Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #139 on: January 17, 2019, 01:31:34 PM »
I’m pretty sure Obama used a National emergency declaration to shift funds for the Zika Virus.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/powerpost/wp/2016/08/11/obama-administration-to-shift-81-million-to-fight-zika/



Which were already appropriated to that agency.  
If he ordered the military to do the wall, he'd need to divert funds already appropriated to DoD from other projects. 
The President cannot take funds from the treasury and give them to an agency.  Only Congress can.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,741
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #140 on: January 17, 2019, 03:48:41 PM »
Interesting. In response to Pelosi's SOTU thing, Trump pulled the plug at the last minute on military transport that was supposed to be wheels up right now to take Pelosi and friends on a multi-day, multi-country tour.

Which begs the question: If Pelosi really wants to end the shutdown, why is she leaving the country for multiple days?

https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2019/01/17/two-can-play-that-game-donald-trump-calls-nancy-pelosis-shutdown-bluff-in-a-yuge-way-screenshot/
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #141 on: January 17, 2019, 06:27:54 PM »
Interesting. In response to Pelosi's SOTU thing, Trump pulled the plug at the last minute on military transport that was supposed to be wheels up right now to take Pelosi and friends on a multi-day, multi-country tour.

Which begs the question: If Pelosi really wants to end the shutdown, why is she leaving the country for multiple days?

https://twitchy.com/sarahd-313035/2019/01/17/two-can-play-that-game-donald-trump-calls-nancy-pelosis-shutdown-bluff-in-a-yuge-way-screenshot/

She doesn't want to end it.  She wants Trump to concede.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,620
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #142 on: January 18, 2019, 03:02:18 PM »
https://www.mediaite.com/trump/shock-poll-trump-gains-19-points-with-latino-voters-during-border-wall-shutdown/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Shock Poll: Trump Gains 19 Points with Latino Voters During Border Wall Shutdown

Quote
That is an astonishing 19 point swing. Prior results had less variance, with Latino approval numbers at 36% in their November 1st findings. It was 27% in the pollster’s mid-October survey.

I am not sure past Republican leadership let it go long enough to get polling data.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Scout26

  • I'm a leaf on the wind.
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 25,997
  • I spent a week in that town one night....
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #143 on: January 19, 2019, 10:42:24 AM »
The RIF plan, while it may not be "YUGE!!!"  might be enough.  Anything to slim down .gov is a good thingtm.

That the thing about Trump, he always seems to, not only have a card up his sleeve, but he's willing to play it, when in the past other R's played by "the rules". 

and Yes, I think Trump should do the SOTU whether via TV from the Oval Office (It would be short and sweet) or at a stadium full of supporters (Longer due to the applause, etc.)  It should be down to show that Pelosi can't stop Trump.
Some days even my lucky rocketship underpants won't help.


Bring me my Broadsword and a clear understanding.
Get up to the roundhouse on the cliff-top standing.
Take women and children and bed them down.
Bless with a hard heart those that stand with me.
Bless the women and children who firm our hands.
Put our backs to the north wind.
Hold fast by the river.
Sweet memories to drive us on,
for the motherland.

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #144 on: January 20, 2019, 09:09:47 AM »
Well Trump made an offer on TV.  Surprised it's not been brought up here.
Thoughts on Trump's speech yesterday?
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,741
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #145 on: January 20, 2019, 09:24:03 AM »
Well Trump made an offer on TV.  Surprised it's not been brought up here.
Thoughts on Trump's speech yesterday?

I caught it. I thought it was mostly real compromise (at least the DC version), because it had stuff that would make both sides unhappy.  :laugh:

While I guess I could live with the DACA stuff, the thing that bothered me about both it and the "more judges" stuff was the numbers. 800,000 DACA recipients. 900,000 backlogged immigration cases (which I assume are mostly illegals waiting to see if they can stay or not). That's just a couple of examples of the number of people (or their parents) sneaking into the country. The real numbers have to be huge.

I would have guessed Trump would come out with a lower number for physical barriers, but he still used the ~$5 billion number. That might still be a negotiation tactic, and I believe he'll lower it if he ever gets a counter from the dems.

Mostly interesting was Pelosi releasing the "no deal" statement before he even laid out his proposal. I think this was another incident where Trump looked willing to compromise and the dems looked like the obstructionists. In the last week, IMO, Trump has been winning on strategy. Though his "winning" seems to make the dems even less willing to talk.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Jamisjockey

  • Booze-fueled paragon of pointless cruelty and wanton sadism
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 26,580
  • Your mom sends me care packages
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #146 on: January 20, 2019, 09:56:27 AM »

Mostly interesting was Pelosi releasing the "no deal" statement before he even laid out his proposal. I think this was another incident where Trump looked willing to compromise and the dems looked like the obstructionists. In the last week, IMO, Trump has been winning on strategy. Though his "winning" seems to make the dems even less willing to talk.

It's pretty clear to me they don't intend to negotiate.  They still want him to open the government so they can negotiate after the fact.   :rofl:
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

Hawkmoon

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,197
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #147 on: January 20, 2019, 10:27:37 AM »
It's pretty clear to me they don't intend to negotiate.  They still want him to open the government so they can negotiate after the fact.   :rofl:

^^^ Exactly.
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
100% Politically Incorrect by Design

DittoHead

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 1,574
  • Writing for the Bulwark since August 2019
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #148 on: January 21, 2019, 09:01:14 AM »
Mostly interesting was Pelosi releasing the "no deal" statement before he even laid out his proposal. I think this was another incident where Trump looked willing to compromise and the dems looked like the obstructionists. In the last week, IMO, Trump has been winning on strategy. Though his "winning" seems to make the dems even less willing to talk.

Agreed. I don't think this alone is going to move the needle much in public opinion but if he can keep talking up this offer, maybe make a different one next week and actually look like a "deal-maker" while the Dems just keep preemptively scream NO then he's going to eventually work his way out of the hole he initially dug himself into.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: Partial Gov Shut Down in Effect
« Reply #149 on: January 21, 2019, 09:37:46 AM »
Maybe Trumps latest speech wasn’t for the public at large but a specific segment of the public.

My brother in law is 2nd gen from Mexico, when I see him I’ll ask him if he thinks that speech was a good move to persuade Americans of Mexican descent.

His opinion will be somewhat biased I’m sure, he was in the Marines and is a MAGA man.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.