Iran seems to be getting.... Frisky.

[AmbulanceDriver]

https://news.yahoo.com/saudi-oil-tankers-hit-sabotage-attacks-gulf-tensions-072309087.html

http://news.trust.org/item/20190512203243-xaijb


Looks like the Iranians are getting a little frisky out there.  Not sure if this is more saber rattling from Rouhani or the Mullahs, or if this is the opening moves of an all out war. 

[BobR]

Operation Ernest Will II coming up?


bob

[Hawkmoon]

Operation Ernest Will II coming up?

If so, would it be asking too much to hope that we go in prepared for what we'd be facing this time?

Rhetorical question ...

[MechAg94]

If so, would it be asking too much to hope that we go in prepared for what we'd be facing this time?

Rhetorical question ...

Wouldn't that be going against tradition?

[BobR]

If so, would it be asking too much to hope that we go in prepared for what we'd be facing this time?

Rhetorical question ...

Well to tell the truth, when we went there we took basic P3s, one day chasing subs and doing surface search and the next doing night OPS in the gulf. The follow on squadrons came in a little more prepared, they had foam in the fuel tanks (we had wet wings), IR lasers, flare pods and other defensive stuff. Our lessons learned at being first really helped them prepare for what they were actually doing. But that is just one platform specific.

As a whole if we were to go there we would make the same mistakes as always, trying to do too little too late and not try to offend the natives which results in just getting mired into a geopolitical mess we should stay out of. Unless of course the CIC follows his SW Asia doctrine and allows the war fighters to fight the war as they see fit for the most part.  IMO

bob

[Hawkmoon]

Well to tell the truth, when we went there we took basic P3s, one day chasing subs and doing surface search and the next doing night OPS in the gulf. The follow on squadrons came in a little more prepared, they had foam in the fuel tanks (we had wet wings), IR lasers, flare pods and other defensive stuff. Our lessons learned at being first really helped them prepare for what they were actually doing. But that is just one platform specific.

I was thinking of fundamental goof like sending the Navy into mine-laden waters with no minesweepers anywhere in the region. It calls to mind an old saying ... something about "This ain't rocket surgery."

[BobR]

I was thinking of fundamental goof like sending the Navy into mine-laden waters with no minesweepers anywhere in the region. It calls to mind an old saying ... something about "This ain't rocket surgery."

That's one of the main reasons we flew every night, they used small boats to lay mines so we would check out each and every contact inside the Gulf every night, sometimes multiple times a night. We would get alerts from the AWACS over SA that they launched an F14 or some other fighter so we would scoot back behind the Saudi Hawk sites until we could go back out. I guess they expected us to find the mine-layers, which we found a few. But yea, they knew the Gulf was mined and should have had better plans in place. Those were actually some good times for us, lots of flights.

bob

[French G.]

I like how the media is trying to make it out like Trump is taking some unprecedented warmongery steps. Yawn. Pretty sure he wasn't the boss one of the many times I played Iranian missile target. Sometimes really close, like see sailors on the deck close.

[RoadKingLarry]

I ran getting frisky, China getting pissy on trade deal...
I wonder how much of this is due to a perception that Trump is in a week political position at home?

[Brad Johnson]

I ran getting frisky, China getting pissy on trade deal...
I wonder how much of this is due to a perception that Trump is in a week political position at home?

Possible. They may consider anti-Trump sociopolitical angst to be synonymous with a personal weakness. If so, they're in for a nasty surprise. You don't get where he is by being indecisive, cowardly, or weak.

Brad

[dogmush]

Possible. They may consider anti-Trump sociopolitical angst to be synonymous with a personal weakness. If so, they're in for a nasty surprise. You don't get where he is by being indecisive, cowardly, or weak.

Brad

Obama did.

[WLJ]

Could be something, could be nothing

The State Department urged staff to take the following actions in an official security alert:

    Depart Iraq by commercial transportation as soon as possible
    Avoid U.S. facilities within Iraq
    Monitor local media for updates
    Review personal security plans
    Remain aware of surroundings
    Review the complete Travel Advisory for Iraq
    Visit our website for Travel to High-Risk Areas

Imminent Threat: State Department Pulls Staff From Iraq
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2019/05/15/state-department-pulls-staff-from-iraq-n2546355

[AmbulanceDriver]

Could be something, could be nothing

Imminent Threat: State Department Pulls Staff From Iraq
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/katiepavlich/2019/05/15/state-department-pulls-staff-from-iraq-n2546355

Saw that this morning.  Caused the ol' eyebrows to ratchet up another few millimeters.

[Brad Johnson]

Obama did.

True, but getting elected due to personal charm and political tokenism, and getting elected because you're the anti-politician who fought his way to the top of the business world through guts, determination, and sheer stubborn attitude aren't exactly similar paths.

Brad

[WLJ]

Both Obama and Iran were richer at the end of his presidency than at the beginning

[Blakenzy]

I was thinking of fundamental goof like sending the Navy into mine-laden waters with no minesweepers anywhere in the region. It calls to mind an old saying ... something about "This ain't rocket surgery."

Well when you are looking for an excuse for war a US ship hitting an Iranian mine is as good as any to initiate "dynamic action" so why not let it happen? Sunken ships have justified many a war in US history 

[AmbulanceDriver]

So.......   Two tankers hit in the Gulf of Oman.  Now there's allegedly a video of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards removing what may be an unexploded limpet mine from one of the two tankers that were attacked.  The other allegedly was hit by a torpedo or other submerged ordnance. 

This is starting to look *really* twitchy over there. It's not gonna take much for things to go all asplodey over there in a big way.

[Pb]

So.......   Two tankers hit in the Gulf of Oman.  Now there's allegedly a video of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards removing what may be an unexploded limpet mine from one of the two tankers that were attacked.  The other allegedly was hit by a torpedo or other submerged ordnance. 

This is starting to look *really* twitchy over there. It's not gonna take much for things to go all asplodey over there in a big way.

They were Japanese tankers, right?  I say let the Japanese Self Defense force handle it.... would be most amusing...

[Ron]

Nothing has happened that persuades me that the USA needs to kill some Iranians and/or blow a bunch of their stuff up.

[dogmush]

Nothing has happened that persuades me that the USA needs to kill some Iranians and/or blow a bunch of their stuff up.

That's good, because we aren't killing Iranians or blowing there stuff up.

Folks (or at least I) am concerned because as things like this escalate, countries end up being backed into corners (or backing themselves into corners) from which the only options left are killing and blowing stuff up.

The global oil economy does not operate in a vacuum.  There's a lot of money and power that shifts around the world based on who is selling who the energy needed to feed their people and heat their countries.  When portions of that supply are changed, unpredictable power changes happen all over.  Russia get's more powerful and influential in Europe as the Mid east oil becomes more expensive and harder to get.  China get's more aggressive about pushing their boundaries and willing to take more risks as their ability to keep their population under control is threatened.  Poor people living on the edge of survival the world over end up dying because the energy they need to survive becomes too expensive.

There are many reasons the US should be interested in the worldwide energy economy, and should pursue our goals.  Everyone hopes that those goals can be reached with diplomatic and economic pressures, but unpredictability is just that, unpredictable, and even more so when actions are being carried out by folks that are pursuing religious convictions as well as practical considerations.  Iran is opposed to many of out interests in the world, and especially in the energy economy.  It's always a little concerning when your opposition starts being unpredictable.  Hence the concern about their "friskiness".

[WLJ]

They were Japanese tankers, right?  I say let the Japanese Self Defense force handle it.... would be most amusing...

Especially after they sick Godzilla on them

Go Go Go Godzilla!

[Ron]

The global economy (multi national corporations of all stripes) is only interested in US interests as far as it can extract resources from the USA.

I’m done conflating global economic interests and the best interests of the people of the USA.

Our economy should serve our people, not the globe.

The people of the USA don’t exist to serve the global economy.

[dogmush]

The global economy (multi national corporations of all stripes) is only interested in US interests as far as it can extract resources from the USA.

I’m done conflating global economic interests and the best interests of the people of the USA.

Our economy should serve our people, not the globe.

The people of the USA don’t exist to serve the global economy.

You either misread or misinterpreted what I wrote.

The global economy affects US interests.  It is in our interests to have the global energy economy act in certain ways.  I specifically used the words "our goals". Nothing in my post was about serving the global economy, but rather having it serve US interests. Iran is, by and large, opposed to those interests.

[Ron]

You either misread or misinterpreted what I wrote.

The global economy affects US interests.  It is in our interests to have the global energy economy act in certain ways.  I specifically used the words "our goals". Nothing in my post was about serving the global economy, but rather having it serve US interests. Iran is, by and large, opposed to those interests.

Got ya

Remember that aphorism?” extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence “

The need to use military force against another nation is now in the “extraordinary claim” category for me.

I don’t care who is President and how little or much good he has done.

To get me to sign on and assent to the use of force requires extraordinary evidence.

That is the legacy of the Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama administrations for me.

The government lies about war and I’m not convinced they did it for our national best interests.

My support or lack thereof means little in the long run.

I’m just hyper aware of the use of influence and propaganda against us by our own government now.

[Hawkmoon]

The global economy (multi national corporations of all stripes) is only interested in US interests as far as it can extract resources from the USA.

I’m done conflating global economic interests and the best interests of the people of the USA.

Our economy should serve our people, not the globe.

The people of the USA don’t exist to serve the global economy.

Correct. 100 percent.

That, however, does not preclude the possibility that preserving stability in the oil market may be in the best interest of the USA.