Author Topic: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds  (Read 11643 times)

Hawkmoon

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I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« on: October 15, 2019, 08:12:55 PM »
I keep trying to cut the orange man some slack because of his court appointment record, but I'm not happy about his abandonment of the Kurds in Syria.

https://www.newser.com/article/015483669899488aa25531c3b3aa8785/fearing-us-abandonment-kurds-kept-back-channels-wide-open.html
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RocketMan

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #1 on: October 15, 2019, 08:25:21 PM »
Historically, we do have a tendency to leave our supposed allies holding the bag in the end.
We've got at least 50 tactical nukes at Incirlik AFB.  I don't trust Erdogan at all not to use them for leverage of some kind if Trump decides to implement economic sanctions against Turkey.
And I suspect Turkey's membership in NATO is likely coming to an end at some point.
« Last Edit: October 15, 2019, 08:39:24 PM by RocketMan »
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BobR

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2019, 08:47:59 PM »
Turkey has not be an ally in spirit for a long time. During the invasion of iraq in 2003 the 10th Combat Combat Support Hospital was denied transit through Turkey to Northern Iraq to establish operations. They floated around the Med for a while before permission was given.

bob

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #3 on: October 15, 2019, 09:06:02 PM »
While I'm all for getting us out of Middle Eastern problems, I have a hard time with hanging allies out to dry, especially after we made promises. I think this was a big problem Mattis had with Trump. Honor our commitments, then get out.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #4 on: October 15, 2019, 09:24:10 PM »
What were our commitments?  Who made them?  Did we make commitments to all the Kurds or just some of them.  Were all Kurdish people fighting with us?  I have heard that before, but never full info on it.  

Also, ISIS was threatening to overrun a lot of this territory a few years ago in Syria and Iraq.  Didn't we help them already?  We at least helped correct the issue which the last administration helped create.  

I have heard there are several different tribes of Kurds and the main one they are attacking has been doing terror attacks in Turkey.  I have no idea if those were the same people fighting with us or not.  I heard those were different Kurdish tribes. 

I have heard lots of stuff and few answers so I stick with my general idea of pulling out if there isn't any real US interest. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2019, 09:30:25 PM »
I don't know the answer.  I am generally in favor of getting out of the Middle East so that is where I start. 

The other part is I get nervous when the Republican Warhawks and the Democrats are in agreement.  Makes me think some really powerful special interests want us to stay in Syria. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Phantom Warrior

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2019, 09:36:32 PM »
I have to disagree with the OP.  A number of very smart people I know who are knowledgeable about the situation have pointed out the following:

The Kurds don't have a state.  They are scattered across Iran, Iraq, Turkey, and Syria.  Where should we help them and what lines should we draw?
The Kurds themselves are not monolithic.  Much of the problem in Syria is the PKK or Kurdistan Workers Party.  They are a Communist militant group listed as a terrorist group by a number of countries, including the US.
The PKK is different from the mostly moderate Kurds in northern Iraq (aka Kurdistan) that many of us are most familiar with.
Turkey is a NATO ally, technically.  They aren't great people but it's a fact.

Do we attack an ally to defend a terrorist group?  And what is our desired end goal?  Even if we wanted to suddenly push to support the establishment of an official Kurdish state, something NONE of the countries in the area support, how do we make that happen?  We have to leave eventually.  Will leaving now versus later make any difference in the long run? 

As my old boss, a recently retired Colonel who is very smart on the area, pointed out, this is the problem with an alliance of convenience with a stateless people.  At some point we have to leave.


Domestically, I agree with MechAg94.  The same people that had us in Iraq for almost a decade and have had us in Afghanistan for almost two decades with no result are insisting that this time absolutely need to stay just a little longer.  And it looks like Turkey's much feared attack when the US left is already bogging down.  Great.  Not our problem.  Let them sort it out.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2019, 09:40:08 PM »
Historically, we do have a tendency to leave our supposed allies holding the bag in the end.
We've got at least 50 tactical nukes at Incirlik AFB.  I don't trust Erdogan at all not to use them for leverage of some kind if Trump decides to implement economic sanctions against Turkey.
And I suspect Turkey's membership in NATO is likely coming to an end at some point.

As for the nukes at Incirlik, unless they are properly armed they wont make mushrooms. if Erdogan got too frisky, get our people out and carpet bomb the depot with incendiarys. He'd have  nasty mess but no bombs.
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Hawkmoon

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2019, 10:25:40 PM »
We've got at least 50 tactical nukes at Incirlik AFB.  I don't trust Erdogan at all not to use them for leverage of some kind if Trump decides to implement economic sanctions against Turkey.
And I suspect Turkey's membership in NATO is likely coming to an end at some point.

I've seen at least one headline to the effect the Erdogan is holding our nukes hostage. Erdogan is dangerous -- I don't understand why we didn't bail out of Turkey and move our NATO forces to Greece two or three or four years ago.
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brimic

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2019, 10:34:23 PM »
The analogy I like to use is:
The local narcs used a MS-13 gang to harass, kill, and drive out the local Crips gang, and now the media is making a big stink about ICE rounding up our MS-13 ‘allies.’

The YPG/PKK arent necessarily good folk, let alone good fighters,  just somewhat less bad than isis.
They are hard core commies, like FARC.
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French G.

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2019, 11:19:39 PM »
The story here is the media trying to make a war. Give them some artillery and I have no doubt they would smoke a refugee camp just for an orange man bad headline.
AKA Navy Joe   

I'm so contrarian that I didn't respond to the thread.

dogmush

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #11 on: October 15, 2019, 11:20:47 PM »
It's a mess.  

There probably wasn't a "right" decision, but there's a pretty decent little genocide kicking off in northeast Syria right now that wouldn't be if we had done some things differently.  Also our stated goal of defeating ISIS in Syria and Iraq has been pretty severely setback by this.  Remember too, that the Turks are planning on dropping several million refugees in the middle of the fighting zone here soon so they can quit feeding them.

I have a hard time commenting on this because I've worked pretty closely with Iraqi kurds (different group from the SDF) that I really liked.  On top of that there's so much bad info or flat out lies floating around the internet and news sphere's that it's hard to have a real conversation on the subject.

Quote
The analogy I like to use is:
The local narcs used a MS-13 gang to harass, kill, and drive out the local Crips gang, and now the media is making a big stink about ICE rounding up our MS-13 ‘allies.’
 That's a pretty bad analogy.

Chester32141

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2019, 08:17:35 AM »
or perhaps wait a day and see how the negotiations turn out …  [popcorn]

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/10/trumps_syria_plan_reveals_a_master_strategist_in_the_white_house.html

Quote
Not so fast, fellas.  The actual result hasn't been quite what everyone expected.  Erdoğan suddenly understood the box he was in when Trump authorized Treasury secretary Mnuchin to prepare sanctions against Turkey.  By themselves, sanctions haven't succeeded much in that part of the world.  But in concert with the departure of the U.S., they became a scary signal that Turkey was all by her lonesome.  Having steadfastly refused to negotiate, Erdoğan now nervously rang up Trump and asked for an emergency conference.  Trump sent Vice President Pence and national security adviser O'Brien to mediate negotiations with the Kurds.




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DittoHead

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2019, 09:50:22 AM »
Most everyone agrees that the middle east is an unwinnable mess and forever wars are bad. However, disengagement can be done poorly as we saw with Obama.

Just before we abandoned those Kurds, we had them believing they would have a safe zone and they were removing fortifications.
BEIRUT — A U.S.-backed mostly Kurdish force in Syria on Tuesday carried out a patrol along with the U.S.-led coalition near a border town with Turkey to select fortifications to be removed as part of an agreement to set up a safe zone along the country’s northwest border, a spokesman for the group said.

Mustafa Bali of the Syrian Democratic Forces tweeted that the patrol occurred near the town Tal Abyad on the border with Turkey, which seeks to set up a buffer zone along its southern border.

The SDF announced last week that it has begun withdrawing its fighters from the border towns of Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn as part of a deal for the so-called safe zone in northeast Syria involving the U.S. and Turkey.

It also doesn't seem to be a big step in ending the forever wars - our troops were relocated within Syria and we apparently sent almost 2000 more troops to Saudi Arabia.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

dogmush

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #14 on: October 16, 2019, 10:07:46 AM »
or perhaps wait a day and see how the negotiations turn out …  [popcorn]

https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2019/10/trumps_syria_plan_reveals_a_master_strategist_in_the_white_house.html

It's a bold strategy Cotton, let's see how that turns out for him.  He only had to sacrifice hundreds of civilians killed in their homes or pulled out of their cars and shot on the side of the M10 highway.

I am once again struck by just how astoundingly inaccurate media reports are if you know what is actually going on.  I hate to think that people actually make decisions based on the nonsense being pushed by news stations.

MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #15 on: October 16, 2019, 03:03:58 PM »
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Ron

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #16 on: October 17, 2019, 12:12:59 PM »
Trump says he is pulling troops out of the middle east and refusing to participate in endless wars.

Unfortunately, for whatever reason(s) we still have thousands of troops over there and no doubt we're still killing folks and blowing *expletive deleted*it up directly or indirectly.

We are not inside the "need to know" loop so all we get are stories, lies and half truths.

Getting out of the middle east isn't going much better than stemming the flow of illegal migration into our country.
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MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #17 on: October 17, 2019, 02:56:08 PM »
Can't disagree with you. 

Dana Loesch had a foreign policy guy on her show yesterday.  He sort of cleared up some of it to me.  He sort of said what Trump is doing may actually be good in the long run, but no one likes it in the short term.  We will see.  He also talked about the Kurds and why most of our guys on the ground there side with them.  I would likely do a terrible job trying to repeat anymore, but found what he said better than most of what I heard elsewhere.
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Chester32141

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #18 on: October 17, 2019, 08:22:42 PM »
Quote
President Trump Delivers Remarks on Turkey-Syria-Kurds Ceasefire and Agreement … Vice-President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo gave President Erdogan the only way out that would avoid him being crushed militarily and economically; and simultaneously positioned the deal such that Erdogan could save face domestically and declare a win.  The Kurdish forces will pull back allowing a 20 mile buffer region.
[popcorn]
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/10/17/president-trump-delivers-remarks-on-turkey-syria-kurds-ceasefire-and-agreement-great-day-for-civilization/#more-173957


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Blakenzy

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2019, 11:59:26 AM »
Trump did the right thing. "The Kurds are our friends" nonsense is nonsense. Besides, the US never went into Syria to protect the Kurds to begin with. All "the poor Kurds" narrative ever was is a smokescreen to get involved in other people's borders. Foreign entanglements are poison to the Republic. Get a clue already.
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brimic

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2019, 01:10:38 PM »
Trump did the right thing. "The Kurds are our friends" nonsense is nonsense. Besides, the US never went into Syria to protect the Kurds to begin with. All "the poor Kurds" narrative ever was is a smokescreen to get involved in other people's borders. Foreign entanglements are poison to the Republic. Get a clue already.

My feelings exactly.

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MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #21 on: October 18, 2019, 03:36:31 PM »
I just hate the implication that we are supposed to stay over there indefinitely.  There has to be an endgame or we aren't doing something right.

I heard that the end result of all this is the Syrian Kurds are now allying with Assad in Syria against Turkey.  Turkey, who was getting more friendly with the Russians may end up moving away from them as Assad is their man.  I just heard it could end up with a better strategic balance that we can pull away from.  Then again, who knows, that is just something I heard that sounded smarter than others.  There are so much crap out there on this and much of it seems to be based on "Orange Man Bad". 

Now I also heard that the Kurds in general have a different culture and if you are with them, they will welcome you and stick by you regardless of your religion.  As opposed to many other groups over there who will stab you in the back.  I heard that is part of the reason that everyone in the armed forces and intelligence communities who has worked over there likes the Kurds.  But unless we are willing to go all out for a Kurdish country, there is a limit to what we can do as a nation.  That would likely stir up a worse hornets nest than Obama managed to do.
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Ben

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #22 on: October 18, 2019, 03:59:29 PM »
I just hate the implication that we are supposed to stay over there indefinitely.  There has to be an endgame or we aren't doing something right.

I don't want to speak for everyone who is on 'my side" of the issue here at APS, but I don't believe any of us want the US to stay there indefinitely, or even a few years longer. Or even think we should have been there at all. The issue is inefficiently pulling out, practically on a whim. A binary response like that is better before you get involved: Get involved in Syria? Yes or No? No? Boom - problem solved.

Again, as Dogmush said, there is a lot of misinformation out there, so we are all just guessing based on what we see/hear/read. My issue (based on what I have seen/heard/read) is pulling out at the snap of a finger and leaving allies hanging, or ducks in a barrel to be killed. Or ill-prepared to handle an ISIS resurgence.

Had Trump said (best behind closed doors to not disseminate intelligence to our adversaries) "I want us out of their ASAP - come up with an efficient withdrawal plan of no longer than six months for complete troop and asset withdrawal" I would have zero issues. That gets us out relatively quickly, but gives the strategic experts a window for efficient withdrawal and a window to prep our Kurd allies to transition in. He could easily have done that behind closed doors, then made a public announcement that "we're out tomorrow" at the end of the transition window.
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Ron

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #23 on: October 18, 2019, 05:03:49 PM »
I don't want to speak for everyone who is on 'my side" of the issue here at APS, but I don't believe any of us want the US to stay there indefinitely, or even a few years longer. Or even think we should have been there at all. The issue is inefficiently pulling out, practically on a whim. A binary response like that is better before you get involved: Get involved in Syria? Yes or No? No? Boom - problem solved.

Again, as Dogmush said, there is a lot of misinformation out there, so we are all just guessing based on what we see/hear/read. My issue (based on what I have seen/heard/read) is pulling out at the snap of a finger and leaving allies hanging, or ducks in a barrel to be killed. Or ill-prepared to handle an ISIS resurgence.

Had Trump said (best behind closed doors to not disseminate intelligence to our adversaries) "I want us out of their ASAP - come up with an efficient withdrawal plan of no longer than six months for complete troop and asset withdrawal" I would have zero issues. That gets us out relatively quickly, but gives the strategic experts a window for efficient withdrawal and a window to prep our Kurd allies to transition in. He could easily have done that behind closed doors, then made a public announcement that "we're out tomorrow" at the end of the transition window.

I'm pretty sure that was what Trump demanded, a plan to get out.

Mattis even said as much as he was leaving.

So it could very well be that this was the plan.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

brimic

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