Author Topic: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds  (Read 11565 times)

makattak

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #50 on: October 24, 2019, 08:31:57 AM »
That is a much longer conversation, that really merits it's own thread.  It's also not what we are talking about here.

As I said earlier, find me a new article about any soldier redeploying from CENTCOM early as a result of the Syria thing.  No one went home.

What this Syria plan did is make US Force's jobs in the ME harder and more dangerous, and walk back a lot of the gains we HAD made in getting out without leaving a burning crater behind us.  So no one went home, It's more dangerous on ground where the troops are, we are farther from our stated goals, and it's made it harder for us to actually leave the area on the terms we have said we want.



(1) How is it more dangerous?

(2) Exactly what are our stated goals?

(3) What are the terms we have said we want?

These are honest questions. I honestly have no idea why we are still in Syria at this point, so I'd love to know what we are supposed to be doing there, now that ISIS is no longer a viable threat. (And even that one was without congressional approval, so we were doing that illegally- 2001 AUMF is stretched beyond breaking at this point.)
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #51 on: October 24, 2019, 08:55:45 AM »
That is one thing I believe I saw Rand Paul say.  He told Congressmen that if they want Trump to stay and fight in Syria, they could pass a Declaration of War. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

DittoHead

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #52 on: October 24, 2019, 09:21:44 AM »
Some perspective on troop levels and engagement
We have roughly a thousand troops in Syria, about the same as in Cuba. It’s true that there is active combat in Syria, but it hasn’t much involved Americans. In the entire eight-year Syrian civil war, there have been a total of eight American service deaths. While even one death is tragic, more U.S. troops are killed in training accidents every year than in our entire time in Syria. This low level of U.S. participation doesn’t seem to fit the “endless war” thesis any more than our presence in Cuba does.

ISIS is no longer a viable threat.
Is that an established fact at this point?
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Ron

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #53 on: October 24, 2019, 09:38:54 AM »
So we can stage military operations and coordinate coups in any nation we feel needs to be saved.

The old "we had to burn and flatten the village to save them" on a national level.
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MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #54 on: October 24, 2019, 09:52:55 AM »
On the comment about troops in Syria, I wonder if that counts troops that deploy there for specific missions but are based in neighboring countries.  It also probably doesn't count the air strikes/support that comes in from other countries. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Pb

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #55 on: October 24, 2019, 10:17:00 AM »
That is one thing I believe I saw Rand Paul say.  He told Congressmen that if they want Trump to stay and fight in Syria, they could pass a Declaration of War. 

YES!

This would never happen... because Congress would actually have to take responsibility for a war.

Hawkmoon

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #56 on: October 24, 2019, 10:22:08 AM »
Our last "war" was WW2.

Korea was not a "war." Vietnam was not a "war." Greneda was not a "war." Desert Storm? Nope. Desert [fill in the blank]? Nope. Afghanistan? Nope. Syria? Nope.

Congress doesn't have the fortitude to pass a declaration of war. It's much safer (politically) to let the prez make the call, then Congress can share the credit if things work out, and pin the blame on the man in the White House if it all goes to hell in a hand basket.
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MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #57 on: October 24, 2019, 10:41:29 AM »
And I can't say that is much new.  I heard we sent marines into places in South America quite regularly to enforce "diplomacy" back prior to WWII.  I don't know if they stayed very long though.

I just question whether there are better ways to handle the Middle East than quartering troops there or giving them large sums of foreign aide. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

dogmush

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #58 on: October 24, 2019, 11:18:21 AM »
(1) How is it more dangerous?  
The local forces that were helping us fight ISIS, feeding us intel , and guarding prison camps are no longer doing so.  ISIS fighters have, with increased freedom of movement, escaped into Northern Iraq where they have space to re-equip and train, nation state actors that will help them, and more US forces to attack.

(2) Exactly what are our stated goals?
In conjunction with partner forces Combined Joint Task Force - Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) defeats ISIS in designated areas of Iraq and Syria and sets conditions for follow-on operations to increase regional stability. That's a link if you'd like to learn more.


(3) What are the terms we have said we want?
Roughly, because we only have roughly stated CENTCOM goals at this point, we'd like to end leave the ME with reasonably stable partner governments that have aligned with the US interests of preventing the spread of Iranian influence and aggression in the region, restricting the spread of religious extremist violence, and committing to open and free flow of trade through the region (especially at sea), and it would be nice if they didn't publicly commit too many human rights violations.


These are honest questions. I honestly have no idea why we are still in Syria at this point, so I'd love to know what we are supposed to be doing there, now that ISIS is no longer a viable threat. (And even that one was without congressional approval, so we were doing that illegally- 2001 AUMF is stretched beyond breaking at this point.)

The bolded part was only true when we were enabling the Kurds to contain ISIS.  That was our strategy.


Quote from: dittohead
Some perspective on troop levels and engagement
Quote from: https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/10/what-is-an-endless-war/
We have roughly a thousand troops in Syria, about the same as in Cuba. It’s true that there is active combat in Syria, but it hasn’t much involved Americans. In the entire eight-year Syrian civil war, there have been a total of eight American service deaths. While even one death is tragic, more U.S. troops are killed in training accidents every year than in our entire time in Syria. This low level of U.S. participation doesn’t seem to fit the “endless war” thesis any more than our presence in Cuba does.

I keep seeing wildly varying numbers for how many troops are in Syria, which I think comes from people wanting to count "troops" and "in" differently.  It certainly doesn't include aircraft and crews flying in and out.  I provided a couple pages ago the CJTF-OIR wiki page which puts the number of permanently assigned coalition troops at 6,350, and some rough breakdowns of US forces and forward forces.  Add into that TSC and ARCENT forces that might be doing stuff, CJSOTF forces (those green berets everyone was talking about last week.  No one really knows where they are), Air Force support folks on ground in the two active US arifields in Syria, and random other base support folks (THe second airfield link has a resonably recent map of coalition bases in Syria) and I bet you come up with more folks then people would expect, given the press coverage.

makattak

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #59 on: October 24, 2019, 11:18:56 AM »
Is that an established fact at this point?

Alright, I'm willing to be proven wrong. From my perspective, and from news reports I have seen, it appears ISIS is no longer a viable threat.

Is my perception mistaken?
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

makattak

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #60 on: October 24, 2019, 11:21:36 AM »
The bolded part was only true when we were enabling the Kurds to contain ISIS.  That was our strategy.


I keep seeing wildly varying numbers for how many troops are in Syria, which I think comes from people wanting to count "troops" and "in" differently.  It certainly doesn't include aircraft and crews flying in and out.  I provided a couple pages ago the CJTF-OIR wiki page which puts the number of permanently assigned coalition troops at 6,350, and some rough breakdowns of US forces and forward forces.  Add into that TSC and ARCENT forces that might be doing stuff, CJSOTF forces (those green berets everyone was talking about last week.  No one really knows where they are), Air Force support folks on ground in the two active US arifields in Syria, and random other base support folks (THe second airfield link has a resonably recent map of coalition bases in Syria) and I bet you come up with more folks then people would expect, given the press coverage.

Ok, I followed your link and it says:

Quote
The Coalition mission is to defeat ISIS as a military force on the battlefield in Iraq and Syria. We will disrupt their ability to command and control their fighters, remove their safe havens, interrupt their revenue streams that fund their operations, destroy their equipment, and kill their fighters. We will eliminate their effectiveness as an organized force on the battlefield.

... we haven't done that? I'm asking, as I did in the previous comment, because my impression is that we have.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

dogmush

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #61 on: October 24, 2019, 11:23:06 AM »
Alright, I'm willing to be proven wrong. From my perspective, and from news reports I have seen, it appears ISIS is no longer a viable threat.

Is my perception mistaken?

ISIS was not much of a threat when they were being contained in prisons, activly hunted, and succefully kept from training and outfitting new cells and fighters by the SDF.  The SDF were recently distracted from that mission, allowing ISIS time and room to disengage and regroup.  Exactly how effective they were at that will take a little time to find out.  If *expletive deleted*it starts blowing up in Erbil, Mosul, and Kirkuk we'll know.

dogmush

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #62 on: October 24, 2019, 11:27:39 AM »
Ok, I followed your link and it says:

... we haven't done that? I'm asking, as I did in the previous comment, because my impression is that we have.

We had.  Or close enough.  We were on to the "Set conditions for follow on operations":
Quote
- “…sets conditions for follow-on operations …” The Coalition is responsible for military operations against
ISIS, but military action is not the only action the governments of the Global Coalition are taking now. The
Coalition’s military operations against ISIS weaken the terror group and enable the nations of the Global
Coalition to bring the full might of their national power – including diplomatic, informational, economic, law
enforcement, and other aspects of national power – to bear against the group. The Global Coalition realizes that
not only must we defeat the military power of ISIS, but we must defeat the ideology of ISIS as well in order to
stem the global flow of foreign fighters and radicalized jihadists in all of our nations.

We have now moved backwards because we (the coalition) are allowing ISIS to reinstitute safe havens, reconstitute command and control, and get new equipment.  How well they do that is still an open question.

dogmush

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #63 on: October 24, 2019, 11:44:36 AM »
https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-us-has-plan-send-tanks-troops-secure-syria-oil-fields-amid-withdrawal-1467350

And now we may have to go back and try and stop more Arab stupidity. Remember the good old days when the Kurds would provide combat power in Syria?

ETA:  I feel for the sake of honesty, since I've been bitching about the accuracy of the news stories this whole thread, that I should mention the story I linked shares that same accuracy.  Which is to say, there ARE oil fields in Syria, and we ARE concerned what will become of them since the SDF has been pulled away.  Everything else in that story ranges from wild conjecture to objectively wrong.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2019, 12:06:16 PM by dogmush »

Ron

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #64 on: October 24, 2019, 07:13:17 PM »
Is it still our goal to make sure Assad is deposed?

Why are we guarding "his" oil fields or why are we keeping him from guarding those oil fields?

 
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #65 on: October 24, 2019, 07:19:37 PM »
Is it still our goal to make sure Assad is deposed?

Why are we guarding "his" oil fields or why are we keeping him from guarding those oil fields?

 
I think that was the Obama Administration's goal.  I don't think that is Trump's goal.  And I don't know why we care about the oil fields except to know who is making money from them. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

MechAg94

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #66 on: October 24, 2019, 07:21:43 PM »
We had.  Or close enough.  We were on to the "Set conditions for follow on operations":
We have now moved backwards because we (the coalition) are allowing ISIS to reinstitute safe havens, reconstitute command and control, and get new equipment.  How well they do that is still an open question.
Didn't the Obama Administration help ISIS get started in Syria?  I thought I heard that was part of what was happening in Benghazi.  Obama had the CIA shipping arms in to the rebels in Syria which were pretty much ISIS.  Then they captured stuff we left behind to the Iraqis later.
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brimic

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Chester32141

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #68 on: October 27, 2019, 09:34:17 AM »
I guess we'll have to wait to hear what Newsweek and National Review think about this so we can know if it's a good thing or a bad thing …  [popcorn]
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dogmush

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #69 on: October 27, 2019, 09:57:59 AM »
I guess we'll have to wait to hear what Newsweek and National Review think about this so we can know if it's a good thing or a bad thing …  [popcorn]

I'd like to think most folks can see that killing a terrorist leader is always a good thing, but you're probably right, some folks will need confirmation on what to think.

Ben

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #70 on: October 27, 2019, 12:31:24 PM »
A bit off topic, but the Washington Post's headline(s) on the kill, in chronological order as they tried to get just the right PC tone:


Abu Bkr Al-Baghdadi, Islamic State's "Terrorist in Chief"

Abu Bkr Al-Baghdadi, Austere religious scholar at head of Islamic State

Abu Bkr Al-Baghdadi, Extremist leader of Islamic State


https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2019/10/27/dafuq-wapo-changes-headline-for-terrorist-in-chief-al-baghdadis-obituary-to-shameful-pc-version/
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RocketMan

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #71 on: October 27, 2019, 01:01:47 PM »
It doesn't matter a whit how many ISIS leaders we kill.  They're like cockroaches in that they will grow more very quickly. 
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

brimic

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #72 on: October 27, 2019, 08:16:54 PM »
It doesn't matter a whit how many ISIS leaders we kill.  They're like cockroaches in that they will grow the CIA will recruit more very quickly. 

Fixed it for you.
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RocketMan

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #73 on: October 27, 2019, 08:20:59 PM »
And Newsweek is already reporting on the new leader of ISIS.  Didn't take long at all.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Hawkmoon

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Re: I think Trump really dropped the ball on Syria and the Kurds
« Reply #74 on: October 27, 2019, 08:55:51 PM »
Meanwhile, Russia is saying the operation didn't happen.

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/isis-leader-abu-bakr-al-20738636
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