Author Topic: China quarantines an entire city  (Read 23530 times)

charby

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #275 on: February 24, 2020, 02:58:57 PM »
I'm not selling, holding and buying
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cordex

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #276 on: February 24, 2020, 03:01:22 PM »
If I were the type to play the markets I might try to take advantage of the fluctuation, but I learned long ago I'm not smart enough to do that.

I think instead I'll continue on my normal buying routine.

brimic

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #277 on: February 24, 2020, 04:43:49 PM »
I'm not selling, holding and buying

I'm buying back after the markets get done correcting. Give it a week or two... As soon as we start seeing deaths on CONUS, the people who previously haven't been paying attention are going to lose their crap.

Lot of murmuring at work today about this, including one guy who's pretty tuned in and converted his 401k to money market over a week ago and another who was strongly considering the same today- both in their late 50s, early 60s.. I only feel 1/2 as abnormal now.
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charby

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #278 on: February 24, 2020, 05:12:00 PM »
I'm buying back after the markets get done correcting. Give it a week or two... As soon as we start seeing deaths on CONUS, the people who previously haven't been paying attention are going to lose their crap.

Lot of murmuring at work today about this, including one guy who's pretty tuned in and converted his 401k to money market over a week ago and another who was strongly considering the same today- both in their late 50s, early 60s.. I only feel 1/2 as abnormal now.

I'm on automatic buy every 14 days and I have 16-17 years until retirement. I made out good holding and buying through the last two down turns, I'm staying my course for another 10 years.
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MillCreek

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #279 on: February 24, 2020, 05:24:10 PM »
As the Bogleheads like to talk about, I decided on my asset allocation and I stick with it. I look at the allocation once a year to see if it is still meeting my needs and otherwise make no changes, such as buying or selling to try and time the market.
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MillCreek

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #280 on: February 24, 2020, 07:09:22 PM »
Ooh, and the IRA is down $ 12,000 today.
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zahc

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #281 on: February 24, 2020, 08:48:15 PM »
Market is still higher than 4Q19? I thought it was supposed to be going down. Not impressed yet.
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zahc

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #282 on: February 24, 2020, 10:45:39 PM »
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/

Has this been posted yet?

I for one welcome our new viral overlords.
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K Frame

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #283 on: February 25, 2020, 08:03:05 AM »
Yesterday my personal and 401K holdings dropped nearly $30,000

But, for the year, I'm still up over $5,000.
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makattak

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #284 on: February 25, 2020, 08:21:21 AM »
Remember that ship quarantined in Japan? (Well, just off of Japan)

https://news.yahoo.com/fourth-person-quarantined-ship-dies-japan-plans-measures-052934371.html

So far 700 have been diagnosed with COVID-19. (And there were apparently some monumental screw-ups with the quarantine, leading to cases popping up in Japan, proper, but I digress.)

Of those, 4 have died. 10 more deaths would put it at the 2% that was reported out of China, but 4 deaths1 (just over .5% mortality) is still FAR more deadly than the flu.

This is a frightening disease. AND it really highlights just a miniscule portion of the dangers of a global supply chain. It works great until we have a black swan event2, and then the markets tank and companies have to do things they should have been doing all along to mitigate risk, causing the whole world to suffer.



1: One of the deaths has not yet been blamed on the virus, but has no alternative explanation, either, so I'm going with the virus until I get better data.

2: Just a reminder that "black swan" doesn't mean a rare event. It means an event that we thought was rare because of our perspective, but in truth isn't rare at all.
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So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

Ben

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #285 on: February 25, 2020, 08:27:18 AM »
Looks like we're opening stable this morning. We should also remember that in DEC18, we dropped from 25.5K to 22.5K, and most people didn't panic. That was 3000 points vs 1000 points. In fact people (me included) were complaining valuations were still too high.

Really, looking over the last couple of years, people who have been in the market for longer than that will still have made money and will be ahead even if we drop back to Dow 20K. You just need to have a plan and be diversified and have patience. Maybe lots of patience, but the market recovered after the Spanish Flu as well. We'd be looking at at least as big of a drop as some people are predicting for the beer virus if any of the knuckleheads running against Trump were to win this November.
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MillCreek

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #286 on: February 25, 2020, 07:55:34 PM »
And the IRA is down another $ 10K today, for a two day total of $ 22k. I have now given up all of this year's gains.
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
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AJ Dual

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #287 on: February 26, 2020, 01:08:15 PM »

Of those, 4 have died. 10 more deaths would put it at the 2% that was reported out of China, but 4 deaths1 (just over .5% mortality) is still FAR more deadly than the flu.


That's a hell of a reduction. And I'd like to see an adjustment that quantifies for the age distribution of everyone on the ship vs. the world or the U.S. at large too. And it might drop to the level of the flu.

Not that we'll ever know actual figures for China, unless the CIA or CDC can super sleuth it out from secondary information that China didn't think to hide, like consumer data or travel info from before and after the epidemic. I'd also like to see numbers for smokers vs. non smokers, and I wonder about pollution too. (China has the world's highest per-capita rate of smoking, 53% of all males approximately.)

The numbers for the ship are interesting, but I still wonder if all reported cases are caught. If there were asymptomatic people who passed, or the tests aren't given to everyone, or if the tests have a false negative rate... then the death rate per total infections could still turn out to be minuscule. The 2% China mortality figure is swallowed instantly if there's another few million sitting at home with no symptoms, or those of a mild/moderate cold and nothing worse and they never get recorded. For what "recording" in China is worth anyway.

I'm not saying it's a nothing burger, but I think it still has the potential to turn out like SARS, N1H1, and Avian Flu before it.
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makattak

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #288 on: February 26, 2020, 02:25:50 PM »
That's a hell of a reduction. And I'd like to see an adjustment that quantifies for the age distribution of everyone on the ship vs. the world or the U.S. at large too. And it might drop to the level of the flu.

Not that we'll ever know actual figures for China, unless the CIA or CDC can super sleuth it out from secondary information that China didn't think to hide, like consumer data or travel info from before and after the epidemic. I'd also like to see numbers for smokers vs. non smokers, and I wonder about pollution too. (China has the world's highest per-capita rate of smoking, 53% of all males approximately.)

The numbers for the ship are interesting, but I still wonder if all reported cases are caught. If there were asymptomatic people who passed, or the tests aren't given to everyone, or if the tests have a false negative rate... then the death rate per total infections could still turn out to be minuscule. The 2% China mortality figure is swallowed instantly if there's another few million sitting at home with no symptoms, or those of a mild/moderate cold and nothing worse and they never get recorded. For what "recording" in China is worth anyway.

I'm not saying it's a nothing burger, but I think it still has the potential to turn out like SARS, N1H1, and Avian Flu before it.

I think I posted elsewhere in the thread that coronavirii tend to not affect children. As in, cases of individuals under 12 get sick at a much lower rate, and even more rarely become serious. Death is pretty much unheard of.

This includes infants and others with weak immune systems.

As a result, I'm not so sure controlling for age will be that effective in judging mortality, as we base the death rate vs. the infection rate. If it is mainly older people getting infected, trying to decrease the average age of the populace by including younger people would have no effect on the mortality of the virus.

Here's an article about SARS (caused by another coronavirus) and children.

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20030429/sars-may-be-milder-in-children
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

brimic

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #289 on: February 26, 2020, 02:58:13 PM »
I put an order in to convert my 401k to money market this last weekend, it doesn’t go through until the end of the day today, and I’m down about 25k already. I bought several hundred put contracts on the S&P on midday morning, already up 9k, a 30% drop in the S&P would bet me close to a million, it’s still a long shot, and I would still have to survive whatever caused the drop in order to spend it.
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Fly320s

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #290 on: February 26, 2020, 07:24:19 PM »
a 30% drop in the S&P would bet me close to a million,

The crash of 1929 only dropped 25%. 
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Ben

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #291 on: February 27, 2020, 04:43:41 PM »
And Dow down 1200 points today.

I actually started dipping my toes in. This morning I bought some more ARCC and BP in my Ameritrade account. Both are high dividend stocks. ARCC barely fluctuates more than a few points ever, and this is the cheapest I've seen it since I first bought it so I bought more to hold. BP is also down to where I first got into it and I bought some more that I'll sell when it gets back up to 40ish.

Also just a few minutes ago bought some more VTSAX and VWIAX in my Vanguard account. I'm going to start buying a little more of each of them everytime the Dow drops another 500 over the next couple of weeks. I've had a bunch of cash on the sidelines, so this seems like as good a point as any to put some of it to work to increase my Vanguard quarterly dividends.
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MechAg94

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #292 on: February 27, 2020, 09:13:55 PM »
Tom Gresham tweeted that the IWA show (European SHOT show) has been canceled due to virus concerns.
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MillCreek

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #293 on: February 27, 2020, 09:44:32 PM »
So far the IRA has dropped about 7% this week.  Even the bonds are being hammered. I am still not touching or market-timing the account.
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K Frame

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #294 on: February 28, 2020, 07:44:36 AM »
"So far the IRA has dropped about 7% this week. "

DON'T JUST STAND THERE.... DO SOMETHING!  :rofl:
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brimic

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #295 on: February 28, 2020, 08:23:48 AM »
I've made 1/2 my yearly salary on my put Options since Monday- about 160% gain overall. Today is probably going to be a bloodbath in the markets. I don't think anyone with liquidity wants to stay in the markets over the weekend after last weekend. I lost a total of 5% on my 401k before it got converted to money market. I'll be buying back in in a few months once the coronavirus situation stabilizes and the markets have bottomed out. There are lots of other reasons why the market is tanking besides the coronavirus- the pandemic is just the pin that pricked a massive bubble involving debt and inflated equities prices. The fed could step in and offer more QE, but there isn't much more room as far as lower interest rates go, they would have to start offering negative rates to make much difference.

I'm sticking with my prediction of a 30% drop, possibly 50% drop from the top before this is all over.
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

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K Frame

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #296 on: February 28, 2020, 09:42:51 AM »
"I'm sticking with my prediction of a 30% drop, possibly 50% drop from the top before this is all over."

Not a chance, UNLESS Corona turns into a global killer akin to the Spanish Flu.

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makattak

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #297 on: February 28, 2020, 09:48:18 AM »
"I'm sticking with my prediction of a 30% drop, possibly 50% drop from the top before this is all over."

Not a chance, UNLESS Corona turns into a global killer akin to the Spanish Flu.

I ran across yesterday (goes to seek it out... here it is: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/10/091002132346.htm) an analysis (over 10 years old!) that suggests the Spanish Flu was so bad because of aspirin mis-use and overuse.

So, it may not have been so deadly had doctors not been overprescribing the relatively new drug, aspirin.

Bit of warning about not over-reacting and relying on new, unproven drugs.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

K Frame

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #298 on: February 28, 2020, 10:56:41 AM »
Going to read that one later...

I'd always heard that it hit younger, healthier people harder because their immune systems were more robust and as such completely overreacted to some component of the flu.
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K Frame

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Re: China quarantines an entire city
« Reply #299 on: February 29, 2020, 01:37:59 PM »
First Corona death in the US. In Washington state.

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