Author Topic: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread  (Read 445995 times)

cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3500 on: July 16, 2020, 01:41:33 PM »
I find the slight uptick after 108 years old kind of strange.
I think those were NAs.  I should have removed them.

charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3501 on: July 16, 2020, 08:39:37 PM »
10 deaths yesterday in my county from Covid. Up until Tuesday we just had one covid 19 death since the start. I know the medical examiner and he would not fudge any numbers.
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Ron

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3502 on: July 17, 2020, 08:30:03 AM »
10 deaths yesterday in my county from Covid. Up until Tuesday we just had one covid 19 death since the start. I know the medical examiner and he would not fudge any numbers.

The medical examiner will use the definition he is told to use.
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MechAg94

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3503 on: July 17, 2020, 09:46:16 AM »
The medical examiner will use the definition he is told to use.
Or it will be reinterpreted up the chain.  

The story about testing labs in Florida reporting 100% positive results seemed to only be on the reporting side.  The people at the lab knew the real number.  It wasn't clear to me where the false data started.  

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cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3504 on: July 17, 2020, 10:10:05 AM »
The medical examiner will use the definition he is told to use.
Even if someone is operating in good faith it can be difficult to determine actual causes of death.  Death from COVID and death with COVID are two different things.

That said, you regularly harp on the "FAKE NUMBERS!" side of things.  Some people are certainly manipulating numbers for political gain, but I'm not convinced it is as common as you pretend.  Charby was likewise worried about the sneaky Republicans manipulating testing to hide COVID19 infections in Iowa.  Just as his concerns turned out to be partisan fearmongering, so too your constant claims that because some numbers aren't accurate all numbers are junk therefore we must ignore them all is little more than a conspiracy theory.

I have no doubt that Charby's medical examiner and dogmush's hospital contacts are seeing a real increase in death associated with COVID19.  Their areas have not yet been hit very hard or at all.  When COVID19 reaches those areas they will see similar increased death rates as other areas - especially among elderly and those with serious preexisting health conditions, but also somewhat randomly among otherwise pretty healthy young people.  People going through this for the first time are worried because they're only seeing now what many parts of the country saw months ago.  The data are pretty consistent when you adjust for the infection start, isolation efforts, and testing.

Deaths associated with COVID tend to spike over the course of something like two to two and a half months followed by a taper down in a long tail.  Lockdowns and mask requirements can stretch this out but the ultimate end result is the about the same because at some point the lockdown lifts and COVID has infection reservoirs all over the world and will come back in.

I know you've recognized several times that COVID kills people.  If your argument is that the death rate is low enough, or the age of the people killed is high enough that we shouldn't shut down or shouldn't require masks, or whatever ... fine, make that point.  That doesn't mean that the numbers are complete bunk.  What they show is pretty consistent and - like any statistic - only as alarmist as the person reporting them.

charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3505 on: July 17, 2020, 10:17:49 AM »
On a positive note, due to a slow economy, I'm in the process of lowering my mortgage rate greater than 1% and shortening the term for the same payment amount I am making today.
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bedlamite

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3506 on: July 17, 2020, 10:33:13 AM »
On a positive note, due to a slow economy, I'm in the process of lowering my mortgage rate greater than 1% and shortening the term for the same payment amount I am making today.

Yep, I'll be looking into that right after the employment situation is straightened out.
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K Frame

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3508 on: July 17, 2020, 11:55:57 AM »
On a positive note, due to a slow economy, I'm in the process of lowering my mortgage rate greater than 1% and shortening the term for the same payment amount I am making today.

I refinanced back in 2018... but with rates going where they are, I'm thinking seriously about doing it again. I just have to run a few scenarios to make sure that it will be worth it.
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zahc

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3509 on: July 17, 2020, 12:33:03 PM »
I just got a new 30year with 20% down for 2.875. That's 0.5% lower than the 15 year mortgage a had a couple years ago.
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charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3510 on: July 17, 2020, 01:27:40 PM »
I just got a new 30year with 20% down for 2.875. That's 0.5% lower than the 15 year mortgage a had a couple years ago.

I got locked in a 2.79%, currently I am 3.79%. I'm in year 4.5 of a 30 year mortgage, new mortgage will be 20 years. I'll probably pay it off sooner.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3511 on: July 17, 2020, 01:37:37 PM »
Has anyone else heard the conjecture that herd immunity for Chinavirus may be as low as 10%?
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3512 on: July 17, 2020, 01:38:00 PM »
I feel oppressed. I do not have a mortgage to refinance to a lower rate.
I paid it off 8 years ago.
I demand reparations.

 =D
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K Frame

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3513 on: July 17, 2020, 01:54:24 PM »
Sounds like time to tap into your home equity...

You know, I have no clue what the interest rate on my HELOC is right now...

I ought to look into that.
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charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3514 on: July 17, 2020, 02:17:21 PM »
  Charby was likewise worried about the sneaky Republicans manipulating testing to hide COVID19 infections in Iowa.  Just as his concerns turned out to be partisan fearmongering, so too your constant claims that because some numbers aren't accurate all numbers are junk therefore we must ignore them all is little more than a conspiracy theory.

Wait a minute there cowboy, I said the governor of Iowa, not the republicans. Plenty of republicans (and democrats) here want more state coordinated testing available every where in Iowa to get a better idea of where this pandemic is increasing or reducing. Our current governor is a recovering alcoholic who traded that addiction for a religion addiction, she isn't fan of a lot of scientific reasoning. Also frankly she is over her head in trying to manage a crisis, she appointed way to many yes people under her. The website numbers look great, but they are also missing a lot of the population of Iowa, especially the rural and semi rural parts of the state.

She still hasn't opened up Iowa testing centers in all area of Iowa. I live in a regional hub town, and I still would have to drive 70 miles one way to state testing site, well after I get an appointment confirmation via the website. My GP office is so back logged that I would never get the initial appointment in to be able to get a Covid test in a timely manor locally.
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K Frame

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3515 on: July 17, 2020, 02:26:46 PM »
"timely manor"

They won't let you get your test at timely manor?

But it's such a spacious manor, which allows for proper social distancing...

 :-*
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charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3516 on: July 17, 2020, 02:43:33 PM »
"timely manor"

They won't let you get your test at timely manor?

But it's such a spacious manor, which allows for proper social distancing...

 :-*

lots of places to hide the bodies
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K Frame

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3517 on: July 17, 2020, 04:03:49 PM »
Looks like I'm right on the cusp of it being logical to refinance my mortgage. Could go either way...
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cordex

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3518 on: July 17, 2020, 04:34:12 PM »
Wait a minute there cowboy, I said the governor of Iowa, not the republicans.
Ah.  My mistake.
She still hasn't opened up Iowa testing centers in all area of Iowa. I live in a regional hub town, and I still would have to drive 70 miles one way to state testing site, well after I get an appointment confirmation via the website. My GP office is so back logged that I would never get the initial appointment in to be able to get a Covid test in a timely manor locally.
If you can't get in with your GP or an alternate provider, are your local hospitals not doing testing?  Check out Walgreens - there's probably one in your town and some locations are doing free testing.  A lot of urgent care clinics are doing tests as well.  I'm sure you've got a couple of them nearby.

I suspect that the testing is available if you're interested, even if it isn't at a state-funded site.

charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3519 on: July 17, 2020, 04:53:40 PM »
Ah.  My mistake.If you can't get in with your GP or an alternate provider, are your local hospitals not doing testing?  Check out Walgreens - there's probably one in your town and some locations are doing free testing.  A lot of urgent care clinics are doing tests as well.  I'm sure you've got a couple of them nearby.

I suspect that the testing is available if you're interested, even if it isn't at a state-funded site.

GP is part of the hospital system here, yea for MercyOne. I'll check with Walgreens, thanks for the suggestion.
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charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3520 on: July 17, 2020, 05:06:12 PM »
GP is part of the hospital system here, yea for MercyOne. I'll check with Walgreens, thanks for the suggestion.

Called the neighbor Walgreens, only 1 Walgreens in Iowa is offering Covid testing, Des Monies, which is 2hrs away.
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K Frame

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3521 on: July 17, 2020, 05:12:49 PM »
Hang out in a nursing home for a day or so. Old people start dropping and you're Covid positive...
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Jim147

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3522 on: July 17, 2020, 05:53:18 PM »
I watch the local news around here and one of the small towns around me is doing drive through testing every weekend. Maybe a clinic maybe an optimist club or VFW parking lot.
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charby

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3523 on: July 17, 2020, 06:21:11 PM »
I watch the local news around here and one of the small towns around me is doing drive through testing every weekend. Maybe a clinic maybe an optimist club or VFW parking lot.

Oh I'm glued to the news on where testing is.
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Hawkmoon

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #3524 on: July 17, 2020, 06:23:59 PM »

That said, you regularly harp on the "FAKE NUMBERS!" side of things.  Some people are certainly manipulating numbers for political gain, but I'm not convinced it is as common as you pretend.  Charby was likewise worried about the sneaky Republicans manipulating testing to hide COVID19 infections in Iowa.  Just as his concerns turned out to be partisan fearmongering, so too your constant claims that because some numbers aren't accurate all numbers are junk therefore we must ignore them all is little more than a conspiracy theory.


I disagree. The concern is the aggregate number(s). If any of the numbers adding up to the aggregate are bunkum, IMHO that invalidates the whole package.
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