COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[Ben]

Looks like the latest recommendation is goggles / face shield. At this rate, I was originally making jokes about wearing my CM6M when out and about. Now it may end up being the easiest way to comply. 

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/07/30/dr-deborah-birx-recommends-wearing-a-face-shield-over-your-mask/

[lee n. field]

Is it possible he wasn’t telling the truth, and just doesn’t want to be quarantined?

Reading the debate about COVID is just stunning. It’s killed and left injured a staggering number of people, but there still seems to be a non-fringe debate about whether it’s overblown for some mysterious government/commercial plot.

I can see why traders would want to downplay the severity of the disease to keep revenue coming in from normal commercial activity. I cannot fathom why the Government would want to whip up fear or cripple its own revenues with shut downs.  Nor can I see any sane basis for thinking the CDC is politicising its advice.

You're trolling, right?

[RoadKingLarry]

You're trolling, right?

I refer you to my reply #3662 above.
 

[lee n. field]

I refer you to my reply #3662 above.
 

DeSelby's supposedly a lawyer.  I thought they were supposed to be able to tell when they're being lied to.

[RoadKingLarry]

DeSelby's supposedly a lawyer.  I thought they were supposed to be able to tell when they're being lied to.

He's probably defending the lies based on professional courtesy.

[Ron]

Ok.  Let's take that as gospel for the moment.  At least as bad as "a real bad flu year or maybe a little worse". Where I live in FL, which is a "hot spot" right now, there are not a ton of noticeable COVID-19  mandates.  There is a  mask mandate.  There are, I guess, some restaurant rules, although I have had no trouble getting tables in the last two months.  There may end up being school changes next month, but that's not finalized.  Other than dots on the floor for lines (which these nasty MFer's needed before) and masks, there's no real effect on day to day living.  There is an issue with available healthcare due to resources being used on folks sick with COVID, but those resources are being used, not just held back in reserve.


So what's your issue?  Are you seeing something else?  Lockdowns are, as far as I can tell, over.  There are mask mandates, physical distancing requirements,  and.........? That seems to be the US response to COVID-19.   Which you admit is as bad or worse than a "real bad flu year".  

What would you think an appropriate response at this point* would be?

*Given, and I agree, that an appropriate response back in Feb-Mar would have been quarantining sick people and aggressive contact tracing to quarantine possible carriers.  You quarantine sick people, not entire societies.  However for better or worse that ship has sailed and COVID-19 is pretty established in our population.

I'm in Chicagoland. The atmosphere here is a bit more intense still. Your bewilderment at my irritation is understandable, I have family in FL on both coasts, your state hasn't ramped up anxiety levels like mine has from the start.  

Reasonably believable numbers based on measurable standardized criteria would be nice.

There is no taking back the mountain of lies, promotion of phony boloney models and naked politicization of the issue.

This is more a political issue at this point than medical/healthcare.

There is very little reason to believe the official mouthpieces of either side.

They have shown themselves to be liars.

There is no solution to that dilemma.

[Jim147]

We will never know the true numbers and I can search and do this for many states. Coming for someone wearing a mask when out because I have no immune system.

https://gunfreezone.net/florida-and-wuhan-v-media-lies/

[Perd Hapley]

So what's your issue?  Are you seeing something else?  Lockdowns are, as far as I can tell, over.  There are mask mandates, physical distancing requirements,  and.........? That seems to be the US response to COVID-19.   

I don't think we can claim the "lock-down" is over, as it appears a lot of kids won't be going back to school this fall, or at least not full-time. That will make it difficult for a lot of parents to resume normal work routines. Also, if I recall correctly, some places are going back into a second suite of shut-downs. Not in my county, although they just gave the bars a 9 o'clock curfew, and rolled back from allowing half-capacity everywhere to gatherings of no more than 50.

Also, mask mandates are just a weaker form of lock-down. Who's going anywhere to kick back and relax with a mask on their face? We'll be going out for necessities, and coming back home, just like we were doing a couple of months ago.

And if the lock-down is over, why are we talking about mail-in voting?

[TommyGunn]

I don't think we can claim the "lock-down" is over   ....... 

Our overlords have yet to squeeze all the p-p-panic out of THE ANDROMEDA STRAIN Covid19 that they can.  They will keep it up until absolute total control is firmly established.     

[Boomhauer]

The final straw for me was when doctors started saying that the restrictions must continue except for BLM protests and riots. Literally a couple of weeks before any group protesting the restrictions such as up in Michigan was labeled as the devil but thousands protesting for the “right cause” was defended as for the greater good.

Add the heavily massaged numbers, CDC not being able to find its ass using both hands, the malaria drug showing signs of being able to help a lot right up until Trump mentioned it in a tweet then it was the devil, Cuomo sending Covid positive patients to nursing homes to slaughter the old folks, a massive spending package packed with pork, liberals physically assaulting people not wearing masks, etc and yeah, you’re gonna get a lot of skepticism and pushback.

[makattak]

Okay - so you think it is more dangerous than the flu. But not for young people.

You just don’t have any statistics you believe that allow you to conclude that? Is your estimation of the danger based on what your mates send you on Facebook, or a data source that you actually believe?

You ignore the entirety of my post except for one small admission of your own mendacity, and then go back to the very first part of my post to ascribe to me a position I've already noted was not my own and is an exaggeration of the position others have made in this thread. Making me, once again, focus on quibbling over a position on data that I've never taken AND ignoring the crux of the argument that the government, by their own measures, has overreacted and been both inept and corrupt.

I have to say, that's pretty much what I expected. It's very good, disciplined debating tactics. Well done.

[De Selby]

You ignore the entirety of my post except for one small admission of your own mendacity, and then go back to the very first part of my post to ascribe to me a position I've already noted was not my own and is an exaggeration of the position others have made in this thread. Making me, once again, focus on quibbling over a position on data that I've never taken AND ignoring the crux of the argument that the government, by their own measures, has overreacted and been both inept and corrupt.

I have to say, that's pretty much what I expected. It's very good, disciplined debating tactics. Well done.

So I missed that - did you have some source of info that allowed you to make conclusions about COVID other than those made by the CDC?

[makattak]

So I missed that - did you have some source of info that allowed you to make conclusions about COVID other than those made by the CDC?

Other countries? Here's some data for you:



That's from Switzerland, from a month ago.




Here's the US statistics on Flu. (I'm admittedly ignoring the data on coronavirus in that chart, because it is based on the very limited data of confirmed cases, versus the (unknown) total cases.)

Let's look at this. Hmm...

Flu death rate is estimated to be at .01% for ages 0-17 and .02% for people 18-49.

Coronavirus death rate is estimated to be .002% for age 5-9 and .0003% for ages 10-17. That's somewhere on the line of flu being 10 times deadlier. 18-49 it is estimated at .009%, which is more dangerous- it's almost HALF of the flu's death rate.

Once we get into the higher age brackets, it's now more deadly than the flu. (If this one broke down 40-50, I'm betting it would not be as deadly as the flu, as my recollection is that age 60 is where the deadliness truly increases.)


And, I predict, we'll now proceed to arguing about why I use that data¹ and don't trust the CDC data, instead of recognizing the CDC data is quite bad and limited, which is why I don't use the confirmed cases and confirmed deaths as the main source for estimating the death rate.

1: "Why do you trust the Swiss?! That's where Davos is! Obviously they're just part of the same globalist conspiracy!!!" as an example of the type of argument.

[dogmush]

I would caution that using (any) health outcome data from other countries, especially ones with notably smaller populations, doesn't port straight over to the US, because a lot of things affect health outcome from any disease, not just COVID.  There's a TON of differences in health system, capacity, regional differences inside the country, and supportive care that will affect a death rate.

A country like Russia is probably more likely to have similar nationwide outcomes to the US than Switzerland, but of course their data can't be trusted either.

At some point, you just need some kind of data, so you have to run with what you have, while being aware of the data's limitations.  I get that.  I wouldn't say discount Swiss data entirely, but be aware that it's not apples to apples with US health outcomes.

[MillCreek]

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87844?xid=nl_medpageexclusive_2020-07-31&eun=g149952d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MPTExclusives_073120&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_Medpage_Exclusives_Active

An interesting article about a proponent of HCQ.  I can say that in my healthcare system, almost no one is now using HCQ because of the lack of good evidence of efficacy, and the demonstrable risk of cardiac problems.

[Hawkmoon]

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/87844?xid=nl_medpageexclusive_2020-07-31&eun=g149952d0r&utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MPTExclusives_073120&utm_term=NL_Gen_Int_Medpage_Exclusives_Active

An interesting article about a proponent of HCQ.  I can say that in my healthcare system, almost no one is now using HCQ because of the lack of good evidence of efficacy, and the demonstrable risk of cardiac problems.

But there are now reports that a very high percentage of people who have survived COVID-19 and are "recovered" now have cardiac problems as a [probable] result of the coronavirus.

[De Selby]

Other countries? Here's some data for you:



That's from Switzerland, from a month ago.




Here's the US statistics on Flu. (I'm admittedly ignoring the data on coronavirus in that chart, because it is based on the very limited data of confirmed cases, versus the (unknown) total cases.)

Let's look at this. Hmm...

Flu death rate is estimated to be at .01% for ages 0-17 and .02% for people 18-49.

Coronavirus death rate is estimated to be .002% for age 5-9 and .0003% for ages 10-17. That's somewhere on the line of flu being 10 times deadlier. 18-49 it is estimated at .009%, which is more dangerous- it's almost HALF of the flu's death rate.

Once we get into the higher age brackets, it's now more deadly than the flu. (If this one broke down 40-50, I'm betting it would not be as deadly as the flu, as my recollection is that age 60 is where the deadliness truly increases.)


And, I predict, we'll now proceed to arguing about why I use that data¹ and don't trust the CDC data, instead of recognizing the CDC data is quite bad and limited, which is why I don't use the confirmed cases and confirmed deaths as the main source for estimating the death rate.

1: "Why do you trust the Swiss?! That's where Davos is! Obviously they're just part of the same globalist conspiracy!!!" as an example of the type of argument.

The problem isn’t Switzerland - it’s why you picked a chart from that country over any others. I’m going out on a limb and saying you did that because the chart you pasted fits your argument.

So you have literally chosen to ignore the very same source you used on flu, in order to select a country whose statistics on corona make it look less dangerous?

Relying on Facebook messages from your mates is truly better science. You should go back to assessing covid risk based on that - because the method you’re using with numbers (pick ones that fit your argument and ignore that same source insofar as it doesn’t) is guaranteed to give you a bad result. At least your mates could accidentally be right.

[De Selby]

But there are now reports that a very high percentage of people who have survived COVID-19 and are "recovered" now have cardiac problems as a [probable] result of the coronavirus.

The bills from the COVID hospital stays and ongoing treatments should probably way into economic calculations about public health measures.

[Jim147]

Well the numbers from the USA are a complete mess. So what numbers do we use? North Korea? Iran? The PRC?

Tell me.

[zxcvbob]

Well the numbers from the USA are a complete mess. So what numbers do we use? North Korea? Iran? The PRC?

Tell me.

Last night NPR was going on and on about how great Vietnam is doing.   

[Perd Hapley]

So no information shared by anyone on Facebook is ever correct. Must have missed that day of my logic course in college.

[ConstitutionCowboy]

So no information shared by anyone on Facebook is ever correct. Must have missed that day of my logic course in college.

Ah. I see the problem. You relied upon something you were taught in college!  

Trying to filter out truth and reality from Facebook or Twitter, or any of the rest of them 'social media sites,' is like looking for that complete rendition of Shakespear's works typed by that one monkey out of the infinate number of monkeys banging on an infinate number of keyboards over the infinate eons. AKA, random luck.

Look to history, apply logic, and if social media or the MSM doesn't compute, it didn't happen. How does that saying go? Oh, yeah. Dont believe anything you hear and only half of what you see.  

Woody

[Perd Hapley]

I had in mind that someone here keeps claiming that others are using their Facebook friends as sources. Trouble is, no one seems to have cited their "mates," and even if they did, so what?

[Ron]

I had in mind that someone here keeps claiming that others are using their Facebook friends as sources. Trouble is, no one seems to have cited their "mates," and even if they did, so what?

Straw men, non sequiturs and other "look! over here! a squirrel!" misdirections are some peoples stock in trade rhetorical devices.

[cordex]