COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[dogmush]

https://news.stlpublicradio.org/health-science-environment/2020-10-26/as-st-louis-hospitals-reach-capacity-doctors-plead-for-public-to-wear-masks?utm_medium=social&utm_term=nprnews&utm_campaign=npr&utm_source=facebook.com&fbclid=IwAR1TWhnNZzLLWiV2CKO6t3Tf0-9o4tPKjm1Jyf5Gsdo_ngQvfEKYyrhQ5Vs

Patient census is outstripping healthcare staffing in St. Louis.

Our census locally is ticking back up as well.  Tampa opened a new Global Emerging Diseases Institute this week which is keeping a lot of the COVID patients out of the main hospitals, but we are getting more inpatient cases every week.

[RocketMan]

This is such an interesting thread to go back and read through, especially some of the predictions. One from March:Last number I saw was 7.9 percent, is that the most recent?

On the other hand, Q3 GDP comes out tomorrow and will be a crazy-big number.

You are correct, unemployment stands at 7.9% as of October 2.  The DJIA has lost around 1800 points in the last five days.  And there is still a good chance that Trump will be a one term president, unfortunately.

[MillCreek]

^^^Down 832 points so far just on today's (10/28/2020) session.

[K Frame]

That was an ugly, ugly day on the street.

At least oil took a pummeling.

[Ben]

^^^Down 832 points so far just on today's (10/28/2020) session.

It would be awesome if it does the same thing every day the rest of this week. I wasn't sure there would be another great opportunity like March coming so soon, but fingers crossed.

[Jim147]

I think it might go up tomorrow but after that it will be flat or downward until the election results. If Biden wins it's going downhill. 2008 all,over again.

[RocketMan]

I think the markets are trying to price in a Biden win ahead of the election.

[WLJ]

I think the markets are trying to price in a Biden win ahead of the election.

Or the riots if Trump wins.

[K Frame]

Market futures are rising about 115 this morning, but oil?

WTI's down another $1.50, to $35 and change even though Zeta shut down Gulf production for a short time.

[Hawkmoon]

Getting back to COVID-19, my luncheon with the assistant pastor of my church has been called off. Then came an e-mail blast from the pastor. The sexton has tested positive, so both the pastor and the assistant pastor now have to self-quarantine for two weeks. The church will be closed, and they will conduct masses by live streaming on Facebook for the next two Sundays.

[Perd Hapley]

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/



One thing to keep in mind is the difference between saying that "masks don't work," versus saying "mask mandates don't work."

[dogmush]

This seems as good a time as any to remind everyone in the world that correlation is not causation, and the spread of a virus through disparate countries with wildly varying responses, cultures, populations, and population densities has a LOT of variables.

[Ben]

This seems as good a time as any to remind everyone in the world that correlation is not causation, and the spread of a virus through disparate countries with wildly varying responses, cultures, populations, and population densities has a LOT of variables.

Certainly cultural geography and Tobler's Law might be one variable in the posted graph. I'd be curious where Finland falls.

[MillCreek]

^^^I learned something today. I had not previously heard of Tobler's law.

[Ben]

^^^I learned something today. I had not previously heard of Tobler's law.

He was already Emeritus when I was in grad school, but I caught one of his grad seminars and ran into him at a couple of department functions. Interesting fellow. Pre-SJW liberal, so you could actually have a polite and intelligent conversation with him involving opposing viewpoints.

[bedlamite]

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/10/20/925441975/studies-point-to-big-drop-in-covid-19-death-rates

[TommyGunn]

https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/29/these-12-graphs-show-mask-mandates-do-nothing-to-stop-covid/



One thing to keep in mind is the difference between saying that "masks don't work," versus saying "mask mandates don't work."

One Stat I heard is 92% of people ARE using masks  and 72%  of people with covid19 disease have used masks .... 

[Perd Hapley]

This seems as good a time as any to remind everyone in the world that correlation is not causation, and the spread of a virus through disparate countries with wildly varying responses, cultures, populations, and population densities has a LOT of variables.

I believe the point of all the graphs in the article is to look at one variable (whether masks are required), and how it affects (or not) the increase in cases (or deaths). Do you not think they would reasonably cause one to doubt whether mask mandates are effective?*

*And as I believe you've brought it up before, that doesn't mean anyone's questioning the efficacy of masks in a surgical setting. 

[Hawkmoon]

One Stat I heard is 92% of people ARE using masks  and 72%  of people with covid19 disease have used masks ....  

The problem is that the standard masks most people are wearing are more to protect other people from the wearer than to protect the wearer from the other people.

Which is why it pisses me off royally when I venture forth to the Super Walmart for the things I can't find at the nearby supermarket, and have to dodge customers who pull their masks down to their chin or Adam's apple as soon as they get inside the store.

[Perd Hapley]

The problem is that the standard masks most people are wearing are more to protect other people from the wearer than to protect the wearer from the other people.

Which is why it pisses me off royally when I venture forth the the Super Walmart for the things I can't find at the nearby supermarket, and have to dodge customers who pull their masks down to their chin or Adam's apple as soon as they get inside the store.

I just don't buy that expecting people to all start wearing masks in Wal-Mart was ever realistic. And the more I hear complaints like yours, the more I feel vindicated in that.

[cordex]

One Stat I heard is 92% of people ARE using masks  and 72%  of people with covid19 disease have used masks .... 

Soooo .... 92% of the population makes up 72% of the infections, and 8% of the population makes up 28% of the infections?

On the one hand, that indicates that mask wearing is significantly associated with a reduction in the likelihood of getting the disease in the short term.

On the other hand, it also indicates that mask wearing is insufficient to prevent infection and that at best it delays the inevitable.

On the gripping hand, that kind of association is considerably weaker than the connection between race and violent crime rates, which isn't strong enough to even bring up in public discussion about crime policy.

[dogmush]

I believe the point of all the graphs in the article is to look at one variable (whether masks are required), and how it affects (or not) the increase in cases (or deaths). Do you not think they would reasonably cause one to doubt whether mask mandates are effective?*

*And as I believe you've brought it up before, that doesn't mean anyone's questioning the efficacy of masks in a surgical setting. 

No I do not think that is a reasonable doubt, at least not without a lot more information and real data then that graph or article presents.

Trying to draw causation on country wide (each of those lines is a country after all) infection numbers across an entire continent based on one variable is a perfect example of Twain's Maxim.  (There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.). That graph does not, in and of itself, provide any insight at all to the effectiveness of mask mandates because it does not control for other variables.  Basic science there.

[Ben]

On the other hand, it also indicates that mask wearing is insufficient to prevent infection and that at best it delays the inevitable.

Really, this is where we are. Masks in public might mostly prevent us (a population) from getting the virus in the short term, but if the virus in all its ongoing mutations is here to stay, most people are going to get it, because no one uses perfect prevention techniques, and even those who are careful (wear the mask correctly, wash hands, sterilize things) will eventually screw up and scratch their nose without thinking.

PPE and cautious behavior still seems to me about slowing the spread and not overwhelming infrastructure. Basically we're all going to get the virus, or have already had it (many of us not even knowing we had it).

[Ron]

On the plus side we are showing signs of having a historically low flu season this fall.

[K Frame]

On the plus side we are showing signs of having a historically low flu season this fall.

Thanks. By actually coming out and saying it you've now guaranteed that everyone will be puking their eyeballs out by middle December.