Author Topic: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread  (Read 440063 times)

Nick1911

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #550 on: March 11, 2020, 10:07:32 AM »
Should I assume competence among communist decision makers? 

No, but you should assume that wouldn't give a *expletive deleted*it about the health of their population while chasing dollars.

Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #551 on: March 11, 2020, 10:11:04 AM »
This is following an exponential ramp up.  Cases in a region pick up an order of magnitude every 16 days or so.  Don't be surprised when 1000 cases turns into 10k cases... and then 100k cases.. in the period of 4-5 weeks.

China, the worlds second largest economy, utterly crippled themselves economically implementing drastic measures.  Do you really think the communists did this for an infection like the plain old flu?

So at 100K, around 4K deaths (assuming the current WHO ~4% mortality)? We'll still be well under the regular flu, and we're fast approaching the end of the flu season. We'll likely see 4000 automobile related deaths in the same time period.
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Nick1911

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #552 on: March 11, 2020, 10:14:29 AM »
So at 100K, around 4K deaths (assuming the current WHO ~4% mortality)? We'll still be well under the regular flu, and we're fast approaching the end of the flu season. We'll likely see 4000 automobile related deaths in the same time period.

We don't really know where the inflection point is though.  Could be a few more orders of magnitude on top of that.

makattak

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #553 on: March 11, 2020, 10:25:37 AM »
We don't really know where the inflection point is though.  Could be a few more orders of magnitude on top of that.

It really depends on when people start taking it seriously. I see some colleges/universities have jumped to online only classes for the rest of the semester. That is likely a good idea.

From the available information (which may be wrong), the biggest issue seems to be how contagious this disease is.

There are very few people left in this country that will recall quarantines for measles and the like. This is not as communicable as the measles, but it's a very contagious disease.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

WLJ

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #554 on: March 11, 2020, 10:25:46 AM »
Two articles just appeared on twitchy
One  :facepalm:
The other  :facepalm:

Quote
   CORONAVIRUS LOOPHOLE!!!!! If you don’t have insurance and can’t afford to take the $3200 test for the virus ($1000 with insurance), DONATE BLOOD. They HAVE to test you for the virus in order to donate blood. Tell your friends! Tell your family!!!!!

    — una puta mala (@VL0ko) March 9, 2020
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/11/tweet-telling-sick-people-to-go-donate-blood-for-a-free-coronavirus-test-has-200000-likes-and-counting/

And is it really $3,200 ??


Quote
   JUST IN: Three TSA officers at #SanJose Int’l Airport have tested positive for #coronavirus. TSA: “all TSA employees they have come in contact with (them) over the past 14 days are quarantined at home.” #SJC #airtravel.
    Full statement: pic.twitter.com/jj7JKlRYBP
  — Ian Cull (@NBCian) March 11, 2020
 
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/11/3-tsa-officers-at-san-jose-international-airport-test-positive-for-covid-19/


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DittoHead

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #555 on: March 11, 2020, 10:29:18 AM »
The problem keeps coming back to testing. Unless people know they are infected they won't self quarantine, certainly not for multiple weeks. If infected people aren't quarantining then it continues to spread too rapidly and eventually we end up like Italy.

A looming shortage in lab materials is threatening to delay coronavirus test results and cause officials to undercount the number of Americans with the virus.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

WLJ

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #556 on: March 11, 2020, 10:32:56 AM »
On a local forum guy posted that his wife was sick and he took her to the hospital where they told him they had no beds available. They're only reporting two C19 cases in the entire city. Regular flu maybe or they playing down the numbers?  [tinfoil]
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WLJ

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #557 on: March 11, 2020, 10:38:27 AM »
On a more humorous note  :rofl:

Quote
    "Hunter Biden's lawyers alerted the Arkansas judge presiding over the child support lawsuit against him that he will be unable to attend his scheduled court deposition this week, citing travel restrictions caused by the coronavirus…" – https://t.co/imINeEJZQc

    — Eliana Johnson (@elianayjohnson) March 10, 2020
Quote
The judge literally told Biden's lawyer he needed to be in her courtroom tomorrow "Unless his hair is on fire".
I am pretty sure she doesn't buy this excuse.
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/03/10/coronavirus-travel-restrictions-will-keep-hunter-biden-from-appearing-at-child-support-hearing/
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Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #558 on: March 11, 2020, 10:53:56 AM »
We don't really know where the inflection point is though.  Could be a few more orders of magnitude on top of that.

I'll certainly agree that global reporting efforts have been horrendous. It's like monkeys typing Shakespeare.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

brimic

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #559 on: March 11, 2020, 11:00:12 AM »
On testing- my company has gotten huge orders for biochemicals from a few places that are gearing up to make test kits. We are currently on semi-permanent 'voluntary' weekend overtime since last weekend. I get to volunteer, because I'm salaried.  =(

On the bright side, we are about as far away from either coast as can be, so the it might be awhile before the virus reaches this far inland.
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makattak

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #560 on: March 11, 2020, 11:06:45 AM »
On testing- my company has gotten huge orders for biochemicals from a few places that are gearing up to make test kits. We are currently on semi-permanent 'voluntary' weekend overtime since last weekend. I get to volunteer, because I'm salaried.  =(

On the bright side, we are about as far away from either coast as can be, so the it might be awhile before the virus reaches this far inland.

On the other hand, a Missouri student flew into O'Hare from Italy and then took the train down to St. Louis... where he was then diagnosed with the Wuhan Coronavirus, meaning that at least dozens of people all across mid-state Illinois were exposed.

It just takes one.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

WLJ

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #561 on: March 11, 2020, 11:16:23 AM »


Quote
Flyer News
@FlyerNews
·
10h
UD students gathered in large crowds on Lowes Street in the South Student Neighborhood Tuesday night in reaction to the news that university housing would close Wednesday for most students due to the spread of the coronavirus.
Quote
Flyer News
@FlyerNews
·
10h
Multiple students have reported to Flyer News that what is presumed to be tear gas was shot at students. Students were seen vomiting.
https://twitter.com/FlyerNews/status/1237597995589197824?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

FFS, EVERYONE: Police in riot gear clashed with students at the Univ. of Dayton after school closed housing over coronavirus
https://twitchy.com/gregp-3534/2020/03/11/ffs-everyone-police-in-riot-gear-clashed-with-students-at-the-univ-of-dayton-after-school-closed-housing-over-coronavirus/
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RocketMan

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #562 on: March 11, 2020, 11:17:04 AM »
In the meantime, the last numbers I saw said 1000 recorded cases (people infected, not dead) of the beer flu in the US. From OCT19-FEB20, 12,000 have already died of the plain old flu in the US. Also this year has apparently had the highest child death rate seen in quite some time for the regular flu, with hundreds of child deaths already recorded.

I still say we're going to have more detrimental effects via panic, overreaction, and the MSM than by the beer flu itself.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

This, in spades.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #563 on: March 11, 2020, 11:18:45 AM »
In the meantime, the last numbers I saw said 1000 recorded cases (people infected, not dead) of the beer flu in the US. From OCT19-FEB20, 12,000 have already died of the plain old flu in the US. Also this year has apparently had the highest child death rate seen in quite some time for the regular flu, with hundreds of child deaths already recorded.

I still say we're going to have more detrimental effects via panic, overreaction, and the MSM than by the beer flu itself.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/index.htm

https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year

The problem with this, is it's bad information.  We haven't reached full exposure of the COVID-19 virus.  The flu is "in the wild" so to speak.  It's a lifecycle virus that most of the world is exposed to throughout the year.  We sometimes get new strains (swine flu, for example), but overall it's all out there.
COVID-19 is a brand new strain of corona virus.  And we already know it's way deadlier than swine flu, which became widespread within just a year.
If we use Korea's numbers, as they have been doing the most testing, and just go off of lethality....
The flu has less than a .1% mortality rate.  In SK, COVID19 is .6% so far.  In a very short period of time.  In Wuhan, it's north of 2%, possibly as high as 3.4%
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Low end infections in the US for the flu: 34 million, with 20,000 low end death estimates.
.6% of 34 million is 204,000.

Further, the swine flu has an R0 factor of about 1.5.  This means that if you have it, you'll infect on average 1.5 people.  The R0 factor of COVID19 is 2.28.  So 1 person infects 3/4 of a person more than the old swine flu.
So we know it's more contagious than the flu.  And has a higher mortality rate.


If you've only exposed a few million people to COVID-19, you're not going to have that many overall deaths.  How many billions have been exposed to the flu this year?
 
JD

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makattak

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #564 on: March 11, 2020, 11:23:42 AM »
The problem with this, is it's bad information.  We haven't reached full exposure of the COVID-19 virus.  The flu is "in the wild" so to speak.  It's a lifecycle virus that most of the world is exposed to throughout the year.  We sometimes get new strains (swine flu, for example), but overall it's all out there.
COVID-19 is a brand new strain of corona virus.  And we already know it's way deadlier than swine flu, which became widespread within just a year.
If we use Korea's numbers, as they have been doing the most testing, and just go off of lethality....
The flu has less than a .1% mortality rate.  In SK, COVID19 is .6% so far.  In a very short period of time.  In Wuhan, it's north of 2%, possibly as high as 3.4%
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
Low end infections in the US for the flu: 34 million, with 20,000 low end death estimates.
.6% of 34 million is 204,000.

Further, the swine flu has an R0 factor of about 1.5.  This means that if you have it, you'll infect on average 1.5 people.  The R0 factor of COVID19 is 2.28.  So 1 person infects 3/4 of a person more than the old swine flu.
So we know it's more contagious than the flu.  And has a higher mortality rate.

If you've only exposed a few million people to COVID-19, you're not going to have that many overall deaths.  How many billions have been exposed to the flu this year?

Another issue: That mortality rate is affected by how effective treatment is for the serious cases. Better care means better results.

Overwhelm the ICUs with a mass of cases and the mortality rate jumps, likely explaining the higher mortality in China (beyond the third world hygiene that appears to be often the case there.)

The fewer people that get infected, the better care those with serious cases can get.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

bedlamite

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makattak

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #566 on: March 11, 2020, 11:42:34 AM »
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8096603/Drunk-man-strips-underpants-subway-station-bites-anti-coronavirus-officers.html

That raises an interesting thought.

I don't know if China is among them, but many other countries have an amount of public drunkenness that is nearly unimaginable to people in this country.

That can't help in preventing transmission of a contagious disease.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #567 on: March 11, 2020, 11:44:40 AM »
If you've only exposed a few million people to COVID-19, you're not going to have that many overall deaths.  How many billions have been exposed to the flu this year?

Please don't any of you take this as heartless, but I'm just trying to put this in perspective to all the apocalypse preps going on right now and the MSM 24/7 stuff.

Lets say every person in the US got infected. That would, at the current worst case 4% mortality number, mean ~1.2 million deaths. So what? That's 24,000 (just a simple "divide by 50" average) deaths per state. Absolutely it's a significant number, and absolutely it would suck for the dead and their families. Again, don't take it as heartless, but I'm just looking at unemotional numbers, because:

The average annual death rate in the US is ~3 million people. So at 100% exposure to the virus, absolute worst case scenario (again, simple numbers without taking age ratios into account), the annual US death rate would go from 3 million to 4 million. If we look at 1/3 of the US population contracting it with a 2% mortality rate (still a worst case, but more realistic pandemic numbers), ~400K deaths. So 3.4 million annual deaths instead of 3 million.

What is more likely to happen is that maybe 10% of the US population gets it (this is about how many get the regular flu). Worst case 4% mortality and we're down to 136K deaths. At 2% mortality, 68K deaths. That barely registers at the annual 3 million deaths number.

People are going to suffer, and people are going to die, but it's not end times due to the virus. We approach end times and stock market crashes from the overreaction to the virus. JMO.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #568 on: March 11, 2020, 12:06:59 PM »


People are going to suffer, and people are going to die, but it's not end times due to the virus. We approach end times and stock market crashes from the overreaction to the virus. JMO.

That I agree with.  There are plenty of things we already could compare it to that we do willingly that are deadly af.  Obesity related illness deaths in the US are 300k+ a year.  Over 30% of the population is considered obese.

This thing is nasty.  We should have been ahead of the testing, because snuffing out pandemics is actually a sensible use of government. 
Us individuals should be prepared for issues like quarantines, and be smart about our interactions.
But it's not going to be madmax out there in six months. Nobody's making guzzoline runs next year.
Stock market was a mixture of factors.  China shut down their economy to stop this thing.  Saudi Arabia is having an oil war with Russia.  And then, when COVID-19 hit the US....the President's tweets and comments were out of step with what his taskforce and the CDC had to say on it. 
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

bedlamite

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #569 on: March 11, 2020, 12:11:22 PM »
Us individuals should be prepared for issues like quarantines, and be smart about our interactions.

George Carlin has the perfect quote for this:

Quote
Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that
A plan is just a list of things that doesn't happen.
Is defenestration possible through the overton window?

RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #570 on: March 11, 2020, 12:14:21 PM »
I wonder if this will actually have any affect on my companies policy of "Don't come to work sick" (but if you take off for being sick we will find some way to *expletive deleted*ck you).
About 20 years ago I worked for a manager that operated like that, He actually told me the reason I lost out on 1% of my annual raise was because I took off half a day sick, one time during the year. Next time I had a raging case of deathfluplague I made sure I went to work and spent as much time as possible around him. He got sick as hell and spent 3 days in the hospital over it. I laughed.
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K Frame

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #571 on: March 11, 2020, 12:25:07 PM »
Ah, the "you have sick days, but you can't use them" employment strategy.

Read a thing on Reddit where the owner of a small business was a complete ass about things like this. Wanted employees to come to work dead, basically.

He gets a raging case of some really nasty bug, comes to work long enough to infect about half of his staff, then goes out sick for a couple of days. Owner, so it's fine.

His infected staff goes out sick with the same thing.

Everyone gets back, and he goes on an absolute rampage, screaming about dedication and responsibilities, etc., and how everyone who took off sick would be losing their bonuses or whatnot.

Within a week, over half the staff quit and the business ended up tanking.



True or not, who knows. But I have no doubt that things like it have happened.
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #572 on: March 11, 2020, 12:29:14 PM »
Quote
Lets say every person in the US got infected. That would, at the current worst case 4% mortality number, mean ~1.2 million deaths. So what? That's 24,000 (just a simple "divide by 50" average) deaths per state. Absolutely it's a significant number, and absolutely it would suck for the dead and their families. Again, don't take it as heartless, but I'm just looking at unemotional numbers, because:

Ur maths r rong.

300 million people, 4% mortality, comes out to 12 million dead.  240,000 per state.

It'd attack urbanized zones disproportionately though.
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Ben

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #573 on: March 11, 2020, 12:33:15 PM »
Ur maths r rong.

300 million people, 4% mortality, comes out to 12 million dead.  240,000 per state.

It'd attack urbanized zones disproportionately though.

Yikes, yes. I grabbed an old calculator that doesn't go to nine digits and didn't doublecheck with my brain. "Mike Bloomberg could give every person in the US a million dollars!"  :laugh:
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fifth_column

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Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #574 on: March 11, 2020, 12:36:26 PM »

But it's not going to be madmax out there in six months. Nobody's making guzzoline runs next year.


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