COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread

[TommyGunn]

Soooo .... 92% of the population makes up 72% of the infections, and 8% of the population makes up 28% of the infections?

On the one hand, that indicates that mask wearing is significantly associated with a reduction in the likelihood of getting the disease in the short term.

On the other hand, it also indicates that mask wearing is insufficient to prevent infection and that at best it delays the inevitable.

On the gripping hand, that kind of association is considerably weaker than the connection between race and violent crime rates, which isn't strong enough to even bring up in public discussion about crime policy.

I'm not saying I believe it .... to be honest I'm less sure about "what is known/unknown" about covid19 now than I was a few months ago.  I hear experts blaming these recent surges on people being lax in their PPE and such ..... but when I'm out at a store I see more people than ever wearing masks,  even if a very few have their noses out in the wind.    But then,  I'm a statistic of one.  330 million other people are out there .....
France and Italy are locking down ..... again .....France is requiring people leaving their house to have a written note explaining their reason---  how in heck does that work?  Can you write yourself a note?  Does it have to be your mate?  Your high school teacher (when you graduated in 1974?).  
If the lockdowns worked,  why the current surges?   Yea .... to keep the hospitals from overflowing.   But they are if you listen to the news....so all they really did was postpone the inevitable.  
So wouldn't it have been better just to shelter the elderly and most vulnerable and accept that we just have to live through it until we reach herd immunity.   Which is 10%  if you believe one source ....... or, wait,  65-70% if you believe some other source.
  .....    

[Perd Hapley]

No I do not think that is a reasonable doubt, at least not without a lot more information and real data then that graph or article presents.

Trying to draw causation on country wide (each of those lines is a country after all) infection numbers across an entire continent based on one variable is a perfect example of Twain's Maxim.  (There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.). That graph does not, in and of itself, provide any insight at all to the effectiveness of mask mandates because it does not control for other variables.  Basic science there.

The take-away isn't that mask mandates will increase or decrease Covid rates. It's that, over a sample of various countries, mask mandates aren't linked to a decrease in the rates, or even to keeping the rates stable.

On the other hand, if some other variable(s) are causing rates to increase or stay the same after the mask mandates, what are they?

[cordex]

The take-away isn't that mask mandates will increase or decrease Covid rates. It's that, over a sample of various countries, mask mandates aren't linked to a decrease in the rates, or even to keeping the rates stable.

This can also be seen in the US.

On the other hand, if some other variable(s) are causing rates to increase or stay the same after the mask mandates, what are they?

Cultural norms?  I.e., cultures for whom greetings are more physical might, cultures where households tend to have more members, or multiple generations live together, cultures which emphasize eating or meeting as large groups? 
Weather?
Willingness to abide by government mandates?
Population density?
Availability and use of mass transit?
I mean, a lot of things could cause a policy to be more or less successful.

[Perd Hapley]

This can also be seen in the US.
Cultural norms?  I.e., cultures for whom greetings are more physical might, cultures where households tend to have more members, or multiple generations live together, cultures which emphasize eating or meeting as large groups?  
Weather?
Willingness to abide by government mandates?
Population density?
Availability and use of mass transit?
I mean, a lot of things could cause a policy to be more or less successful.

Whatever it is, or whatever they are, they seem to be cancelling out any positive effects mask mandates might have. Or maybe the mandates just aren't helping in the first place.

Also, the article does take compliance rates into account.

[Andiron]

The problem is that the standard masks most people are wearing are more to protect other people from the wearer than to protect the wearer from the other people.

Which is why it pisses me off royally when I venture forth to the Super Walmart for the things I can't find at the nearby supermarket, and have to dodge customers who pull their masks down to their chin or Adam's apple as soon as they get inside the store.

You're in luck,  I'm STILL not wearing one.

You do you.

[Perd Hapley]

Moar:

In 2015, for instance, the respected British Medical Journal Open published a paper that compared infection rates of those who wore cloth masks with properly worn “official” medical masks. It found that “the rates of all infection outcomes were highest in the cloth mask arm.” The paper concluded that “the results caution against the use of cloth masks. This is an important finding to inform occupational health and safety. Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection.”

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/02/only-science-deniers-believe-in-a-national-mask-mandate/

[RoadKingLarry]

On the plus side we are showing signs of having a historically low flu season this fall.

 
That's what they want you to believe...
 

[TommyGunn]

Moar:

https://thefederalist.com/2020/11/02/only-science-deniers-believe-in-a-national-mask-mandate/

So, where do we get our "official medical masks? ? ?"

[zahc]

France is requiring people leaving their house to have a written note explaining their reason---  how in heck does that work?  Can you write yourself a note?  Does it have to be your mate?  Your high school teacher (when you graduated in 1974?). 

The document requirement is the same as in the spring. Of course there is an official government form for the so-called "attestation"... you can't scrawl it on paper yourself. Also, there is apparently an app now in addition to the paper version. From what I understand, the justification itself is indeed based off the honor system in that you fill out the attestation by yourself. However, if you are found violating curfew without having a valid attestation then you can get a $150EU fine. The attestation is all about trying to give it some officialness.

From what my French contacts tell me, if there weren't a fine, then everyone would probably completely ignore the curfews and masks requirements. And if there weren't an attestation paperwork, they couldn't enforce s fine. There's a myth that Americans are particularly bad about ignoring government mandates and other more civilized countries just follow the rules. This may be true about korea or Japan, but I guess not for France.

[K Frame]

When all of this started kicking off there was a lot of fear that the US was going to go into mandatory lockdown so employers who had people working on vital programs started issuing transit letters (along with the Fed Gov customer) to be provided to police if we were stopped on our way to work.

Basically "This individual provides services that are critical to the security of the United States and should be allowed free transit to/from work location."

We're still required to keep them handy just in case we do enter a lock down.

[RoadKingLarry]

When all of this started kicking off there was a lot of fear that the US was going to go into mandatory lockdown so employers who had people working on vital programs started issuing transit letters (along with the Fed Gov customer) to be provided to police if we were stopped on our way to work.

Basically "This individual provides services that are critical to the security of the United States and should be allowed free transit to/from work location."

We're still required to keep them handy just in case we do enter a lock down.

.

Yup, I've got mine.

My son and daughter in law work at a wally world distribution center, they got letters also but not as fancy as mine with all the Homeland suckurity BS on it.
 

[HeroHog]

Gas tank is full, TP is stocked, Fridge and pantry are full, magazines and speedloaders are full, "spare" ammo is accessible and the Uplula loader is there too.
FA&FO!

[K Frame]

Swapped the .38 in the living room with my High Power and 2 loaded mags.

Loaded some extra mags for the .40 in my bedroom.

Pulled my SKS out of the safe with 100 rounds of ammo on clips. I think that will go in my bedroom along with the .40 and the S&W police cruiser 12 gauge.

Dropping a .38 in the car safe.

Pulled another shotgun out of the safe along with 30 rounds of No 4 and 00 buck. That will go downstairs.

Good thought on filling up the car. I'm at half a tank.

Got food and all that.


Friends of mine have packed go bags. He's a retired Army officer, she's turning into a complete whack job. Convinced that Trump is going to lose the election and call out the Army to keep him in power in a coup.

[dogmush]

I can't just stay at home, I'm "Essential AF" at work, but I have a full tank of gas, am driving the truck (instead of the sedan) and put my plate carrier and carbine in the back in addition to my CCW.  I have to traverse some ghetto-adjacent areas to get to and from work though.


ETA: For Clarity:  I'm not looking to get sporty with anyone, I just want to make sure I can get home.  I want no part in this weeks festivities.

[MillCreek]

I am already at my office. But since it is in an affluent suburb north of Seattle, I don't have any major concerns and made no preps for the trip over and above the usual.

[Ben]

I mentioned before that I'm not doing more than normal, which is just loaded guns lying around everywhere, because why would antifa come all the way out here and aggravate like 50 people in the five square mile area and not get any news coverage (plus end up being buried in backhoe graves)?

However yesterday, and early this morning while Steve and I were on patrol, I have heard semi-auto rifles and pistols going off all around me (I usually just hear hunting rifles getting sighted in on weekends), so it appears my neighbors have different thoughts than me and are practicing.  

[RoadKingLarry]

I don't have to worry about travel too much since I am once again off work on short term disability, though I do have a Dr appointment early this afternoon.  The bad part is that my right arm is FUBAR and mostly useless. Thankfully, we dont have too much to worry about out here in the boondocks.

[bedlamite]

I mentioned before that I'm not doing more than normal, which is just loaded guns lying around everywhere, because why would antifa come all the way out here and aggravate like 50 people in the five square mile area and not get any news coverage (plus end up being buried in backhoe graves)?

However yesterday, and early this morning while Steve and I were on patrol, I have heard semi-auto rifles and pistols going off all around me (I usually just hear hunting rifles getting sighted in on weekends), so it appears my neighbors have different thoughts than me and are practicing.  

Pretty much the same around here, although it's a town of 1K. Packing today for deer season, leaving tomorrow.

[DittoHead]

I have packed extra breath mints because, for the first time, I will be wearing a face mask for a full work day (processing absentee ballots).
I think up until now the longest I've had to wear one was for a couple hours while donating blood.

[Hawkmoon]

My state is cooking the books ... again.

The governor's office issues a CV-19 data sheet every day, and I've been printing them out and logging the numbers on a spreadsheet since March. The state doesn't report recoveries, so I also check the Johns Hopkins web site every day to get numbers on recoveries for my state. Until October 1, the state's number for active cases agreed with the Johns Hopkins number for active cases. As of October 1, a large discrepancy appeared between those two numbers, and there was no explanation.

As of today (which reported yesterday's numbers), things got even murkier. I just downloaded the new report for "today" (which is actually for data as of 8:30 yesterday evening). The number of new cases reported is 1157. BUT ...

There's a footnote. For some reason, they decided to add in 530 new "cases" and 26,321 tests that were conducted from August through October (and the first few days of November) that were for the antigen test rather than the nasal swab (molecular) test. As you probably know, the antigen test is not considered to show infection -- it only indicates probably past exposure to the virus. But the State is now including positive antigen tests as "probable" cases.

And the State is still not reporting recoveries. Johns Hopkins shows recoveries for the state, and they must be getting numbers from somewhere, but the State isn't making the numbers public. Furthermore, the Johns Hopkins number on recoveries doesn't change daily. Typically, it changes every Thursday. But it hasn't changed recently -- it has been stuck at 9,800 for fifteen days.

Bottom line -- we now have even LESS idea of what's really going on than we did before. And what we were being told before was far from being an accurate picture.


[Edit to add] I just realized that the antigen test is not the same as the antibody test. The antigen test has been approved as a rapid result test since August -- but it is not supposed to be used for positive diagnosis. It's supposed to be used to identify people who need a nasal swab test for a definite diagnosis.

[tokugawa]

It's like they have a bizarre idea the virus will go away and die off if people wear masks.
This is not going away, it will continue to circulate until we get enough people resistant to give herd immunity.
Almost no one under 50 dies from it, even less under 25.
Protect the elderly, quarantine their caregivers along with them, pay them extra.
Then let this damn thing run through the rest of us as fast as possible
All slowing the spread does is prolong the pain.

Unless of course one has a purely political reason for it.

[makattak]

It's like they have a bizarre idea the virus will go away and die off if people wear masks.
This is not going away, it will continue to circulate until we get enough people resistant to give herd immunity.
Almost no one under 50 dies from it, even less under 25.
Protect the elderly, quarantine their caregivers along with them, pay them extra.
Then let this damn thing run through the rest of us as fast as possible
All slowing the spread does is prolong the pain.

Unless of course one has a purely political reason for it.

And do it in the summer months when people get more sun and it weakens the virus and strengthens people's immune response...

Oh, right; we pretended it could be beaten by hiding from it all summer and killing every small business we could. Oops.

[HeroHog]

Tested OK again and had my Throat Scope and Botox injection this morning. Nice little nap.

[Hawkmoon]

I just learned from a friend in Europe that COVID-19 has infected the mink population in Denmark, mutated to a new form that may not respond to the same anibodies being studied for a vaccine, and has already begun infecting people. This is NOT good news.

https://nypost.com/2020/11/05/covid-19-strain-in-denmark-mink-could-cause-new-pandemic-scientist/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-11-05/covid-mutation-in-danish-mink-triggers-new-restrictions

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2020/11/04/Denmark-to-cull-millions-of-mink-amid-COVID-19-fears/9571604544197/

[Cliffh]

Not that I pay a lot of attention to such things, but that's the first time I've heard of a virus being passed from mink to human.

If that's the case, I wonder how many other species might be infected and transmit to humans.

As Hawkmoon said, NOT good news.