Author Topic: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread  (Read 440338 times)

RocketMan

  • Mad Rocket Scientist
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,578
  • Semper Fidelis
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Angel Eyes

  • Lying dog-faced pony soldier
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,258
  • You're not diggin'
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4451 on: November 26, 2020, 10:22:52 AM »
"I make love to men daily, but in the imagination."
                         - Barack Obama

TommyGunn

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 7,956
  • Stuck in full auto since birth.
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

WLJ

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 27,849
  • On Patrol In The Epsilon Eridani System
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4453 on: November 26, 2020, 10:53:03 AM »
But he's an Emmy winning governor so he must be way smarter than you
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes

Angel Eyes

  • Lying dog-faced pony soldier
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,258
  • You're not diggin'
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4454 on: November 26, 2020, 11:02:51 AM »
From a friend:

This Thanksgiving, if you see 20 cars at your neighbor's house, and you're thinking about reporting them, go to the fridge and drink a glass of milk.  Why?  Milk is good for your teeth.  You know what else is good for your teeth?  Minding your own damn business.

"I make love to men daily, but in the imagination."
                         - Barack Obama

Perd Hapley

  • Superstar of the Internet
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 61,333
  • My prepositions are on/in
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4455 on: November 29, 2020, 10:33:56 PM »
One of our regular customers was in a few days ago, and he mentioned that one of his cousins (both in their twenties, and presumably black men) died, and another was critical. They both had double pneumonia and covid. After he left, I heard one coworker tell another that the cousins had died/been hospitalized with covid. Funny how the pneumonia got left out.

For what it's worth, a lot of people in my church, or their relatives, have died recently. None of them from covid.
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife

sumpnz

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 8,304
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4456 on: November 29, 2020, 10:47:25 PM »
So, I’ve seen some people claim 10s or 100s of thousands of “excess” deaths this year, and others claim 90-100k fewer total deaths for the year than expected.

Anyone have reliable, unbiased data showing which is correct?  I’m interested but too busy/exhausted to go down the rabbit trails.

bedlamite

  • Hold my beer and watch this!
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 9,769
  • Ack! PLBTTPHBT!
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4457 on: November 29, 2020, 11:16:35 PM »
So, I’ve seen some people claim 10s or 100s of thousands of “excess” deaths this year, and others claim 90-100k fewer total deaths for the year than expected.

Anyone have reliable, unbiased data showing which is correct?  I’m interested but too busy/exhausted to go down the rabbit trails.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
A plan is just a list of things that doesn't happen.
Is defenestration possible through the overton window?

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4458 on: November 30, 2020, 07:52:44 AM »
"Excess deaths" is actually a comparison of reality to a statistical projection that was made in the beginning of the year.



For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

cordex

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,570
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4459 on: November 30, 2020, 09:10:31 AM »
"Excess deaths" is actually a comparison of reality to a statistical projection that was made in the beginning of the year.
Yes, and?  The statistical projections are based on historical deaths, account for seasonality, and allow for normal variation. If you look at the data you can see a clear drastic increase in deaths - especially during the first spike of Covid when Hero Cuomo was killing off grandparents.

The increase is not in the range of a minor abnormality and the curve does not follow the comparable time periods in previous years. Do you have a competing explanation for those additional deaths?

makattak

  • Dark Lord of the Cis
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,022
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4460 on: November 30, 2020, 09:13:52 AM »
Yes, and?  The statistical projections are based on historical deaths, account for seasonality, and allow for normal variation. If you look at the data you can see a clear drastic increase in deaths - especially during the first spike of Covid when Hero Cuomo was killing off grandparents.

The increase is not in the range of a minor abnormality and the curve does not follow the comparable time periods in previous years. Do you have a competing explanation for those additional deaths?

Deaths are on pace to grow about 1.2% this year over last year. Last also was about that much of a growth and so was the previous year.

Did we have pandemics those years too?
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4461 on: November 30, 2020, 01:27:05 PM »
Just defining terms as "excess deaths" is a misnomer.

"More deaths than government statisticians projected" is clunky but confers more information than "excess deaths".

It's a misnomer because some years more people die than other years and there is no law or principle as to how many people die per year. All we have are educated guesses.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Perd Hapley

  • Superstar of the Internet
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 61,333
  • My prepositions are on/in
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4462 on: November 30, 2020, 01:27:36 PM »
Yes, and?  The statistical projections are based on historical deaths, account for seasonality, and allow for normal variation. If you look at the data you can see a clear drastic increase in deaths - especially during the first spike of Covid when Hero Cuomo was killing off grandparents.

The increase is not in the range of a minor abnormality and the curve does not follow the comparable time periods in previous years. Do you have a competing explanation for those additional deaths?

Isolation? Economic disaster? General upheaval and despair? People putting off medical treatments out of fear?
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife

cordex

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,570
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4463 on: November 30, 2020, 03:38:26 PM »
It's a misnomer because some years more people die than other years and there is no law or principle as to how many people die per year. All we have are educated guesses.
These kinds of statistics aren't perfect, but actually are pretty good.  Variations are typically explainable (i.e., bad flu season) and comparing season to season they are pretty consistent.

The multiple spikes we have seen this year over and above recent years when comparing like seasons appear to me to be considerably beyond just "some years more people die than other years".  You may disagree, or maybe you haven't looked carefully at the presented numbers.

cordex

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,570
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4464 on: November 30, 2020, 03:41:59 PM »
Isolation? Economic disaster? General upheaval and despair? People putting off medical treatments out of fear?
Those are certainly all contributing factors, but I have a hard time believing they killed that many over and above the norm.

Perd Hapley

  • Superstar of the Internet
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 61,333
  • My prepositions are on/in
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4465 on: November 30, 2020, 05:15:08 PM »
Those are certainly all contributing factors, but I have a hard time believing they killed that many over and above the norm.

Why?
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife

cordex

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,570
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4466 on: November 30, 2020, 05:23:27 PM »
Why?
Because people are a heck of a lot more resilient than that.

Jim147

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 7,587
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4467 on: November 30, 2020, 06:39:13 PM »
There are many cities that have seen more deaths from suicide or shooting deaths than covid.

Japan has had more suicides this month or it might have been last month than covid deaths all year.
Sometimes we carry more weight then we owe.
And sometimes goes on and on and on.

BAH-WEEP-GRAAAGHNAH WHEEP NI-NI BONG

Perd Hapley

  • Superstar of the Internet
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 61,333
  • My prepositions are on/in
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4468 on: December 01, 2020, 12:03:10 AM »
Because people are a heck of a lot more resilient than that.

Based on what? The last time we shuttered everything for most of a year, and had race riots combined with anarcho-Marxist-fascist arson parties all summer long?
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,622
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4469 on: December 01, 2020, 08:53:19 AM »
Because people are a heck of a lot more resilient than that.
Many people are.  But we aren't talking about many or most people.  We are talking about a fraction of 1%.  General averages may not apply.
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

MillCreek

  • Skippy The Wonder Dog
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 19,964
  • APS Risk Manager
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4470 on: December 01, 2020, 09:43:31 AM »
On the plus side, so to speak, there is discussion about moving obese people up the vaccine priority ladder, since they are at higher risk.
_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

ConstitutionCowboy

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 642
  • My Gender and Pronouns are Standard.
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4471 on: December 01, 2020, 09:55:07 AM »
On the plus side, so to speak, there is discussion about moving obese people up the vaccine priority ladder, since they are at higher risk.

That would only be equitable if they had an underlying condition such as people who have asthma, or COPD, or heart disease or the like.

Woody
   "Knowing the past, I'll not surrender any arms and march less prepared into the future."   B.E.Wood

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4472 on: December 01, 2020, 09:57:37 AM »
I guess I'm kinda glad  I got the covid and made my own antibodies, because my demographic is going to be on the very bottom of any vaccine priority lists.  :laugh:
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Angel Eyes

  • Lying dog-faced pony soldier
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 12,258
  • You're not diggin'
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4473 on: December 01, 2020, 10:33:13 AM »
https://web.archive.org/web/20201126163323/https://www.jhunewsletter.com/article/2020/11/a-closer-look-at-u-s-deaths-due-to-covid-19

Quote
Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19. Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.

“The reason we have a higher number of reported COVID-19 deaths among older individuals than younger individuals is simply because every day in the U.S. older individuals die in higher numbers than younger individuals,” Briand said.

Briand also noted that 50,000 to 70,000 deaths are seen both before and after COVID-19, indicating that this number of deaths was normal long before COVID-19 emerged. Therefore, according to Briand, not only has COVID-19 had no effect on the percentage of deaths of older people, but it has also not increased the total number of deaths.

These data analyses suggest that in contrast to most people’s assumptions, the number of deaths by COVID-19 is not alarming. In fact, it has relatively no effect on deaths in the United States.
"I make love to men daily, but in the imagination."
                         - Barack Obama

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: COVID-19/corona virus mega thread/prepping thread
« Reply #4474 on: December 01, 2020, 10:45:07 AM »
Boomers are at the end of their season and will be dying off in increasing numbers.

I lost two friends this weekend, one was solidly in the boomer era, the other a little younger than I am, so not quite a boomer. Neither death was from wuflu.

JR fell off the wagon and I'm sure all the wuflu insanity didn't help his descent into an alcoholics early death. JR collected historic and antique rifles. One of his Garands was the first one I ever fired.

John had a heart attack in the driveway. His wife performed CPR until the ambulance arrived and they refused to let her travel with him to the hospital. They pronounced him dead at the hospital.

One thing about getting older that I knew was going to happen was seeing friends and family passing away around me. Knowing it was coming really didn't help that much, it still rattles you down to the core.

Isolating folks from family and friends during their last chapters of life is a cruelty beyond words.
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.