Personal impact of the Wuhan Virus

[bedlamite]

You guys know you can get it twice, right?  It's not chicken pox.

Maybe, maybe not. There is some evidence that may have come from different testing methods, combined with fear propaganda. Truth is we don't know yet.

There is evidence that antibodies may not last, and there is evidence that T cells from previous corona virus infections (even non-covid common cold) provide some level of immunity. The vaccine  isn't going to be 100% effective either.

[cordex]

You guys know you can get it twice, right?  It's not chicken pox.

My understanding is that this remains an open question. Tests can return false positive and false negatives.  Plus, even with chickenpox some people can get that twice. Increased immunity doesn’t mean that you will be 100% guaranteed to never get something again. 

[dogmush]

I didn't know this.  I was under the impression that having the virus conferred immunity.

Maybe, maybe not. There is some evidence that may have come from different testing methods, combined with fear propaganda. Truth is we don't know yet.

There is evidence that antibodies may not last, and there is evidence that T cells from previous corona virus infections (even non-covid common cold) provide some level of immunity. The vaccine  isn't going to be 100% effective either.

From the staff conference call at my local hospital:

Folks are have been coming in with active COVID-19 (positive SARS-COV-2 tests and symptoms) that have had it in the past.  The hospital told their staff that a second positive SARS-COV-2 (not antibody) test with 90 days between them is considered a second infection.  Central FL has a non-zero number of people that fit this condition.  (I do not know how many, they don't go into that much detail on the conference call.)  NYC is also reporting people coming in with cases of COVID-19 that had it, and recovered from it, last spring.  

Take that for what you will.

Terminology: COVID-19 is the disease caused by the virus SARS-COV-2.  The nasopharyngeal swab test is testing for the presence of the virus (SARS-COV-2) in a viral load high enough to trigger the test.

[TommyGunn]

You guys know you can get it twice, right?  It's not chicken pox.

This is still a matter of debate.  Getting it does cause the antibodies to develop in people with healthy immune systems.

What I forsee is the possibility of needing yearly booster shots .... sorta like getting a flu shot every year.

[dogmush]

This is still a matter of debate. 

Not really among the people treating the disease.  It may be up for debate among political appointees and Twitter.

[TommyGunn]

Not really among the people treating the disease.  It may be up for debate among political appointees and Twitter.

Then we are all doomed.  


Unless the  second infection confers immunity. 

[Perd Hapley]

Not really [up for debate] among the people treating the disease.

Last time I saw that kind of statement, it was that viral article about "an emerging consensus" in the field, that we were approaching Covid all wrong. That was swiftly debunked.

Maybe this one?
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/possible-developments-in-the-treatment-of-critical-covid-19-2

[Ron]

Hospitalizations are down and there have been massive increases in testing.

The science says reinfection of wuflu is rare, at least according to the google.

For 6 months they've told us it isn't like the flu.

Now the science says it is just like the flu, it will mutate and you can be infected with a different strain.

The main thing is, you guys all need to be afraid, and obey, it's very important you obey, and don't listen or trust anecdotal evidence, unless that evidence increases anxiety and fear, because the science or something.

[dogmush]

Hospitalizations are down and there have been massive increases in testing.

The science says reinfection of wuflu is rare, at least according to the google.

For 6 months they've told us it isn't like the flu.

Now the science says it is just like the flu, it will mutate and you can be infected with a different strain.

The main thing is, you guys all need to be afraid, and obey, it's very important you obey, and don't listen or trust anecdotal evidence, unless that evidence increases anxiety and fear, because the science or something.

Define "rare".  I'm interested, because as I said in my post my source didn't give numbers.  Just said that "they were seeing increasing cases of a second infection".  My friend working the hospitals in NYC has also seen more cases of second infection this month.  She said she had seen 20 or 30 in Sep, but that's just one person in one hospital.

[Ron]

Like I said in the post, I just googled it to see what the latest word is regarding second infections.

Not much out there.

We do know that as time goes by the number of folks testing positive is going up. As the virus spreads the through the population and we continue testing high numbers it's a guarantee that reported positive tests are going to go up.

It's a truism, the more people you test the more positives you will find.

How is the hospitalization rate where you are at? From what I'm seeing the hospitalization rate is trending down while the reporting of positive tests is going up.

The only reason I'm not a "covid denier" LOL as Ned slanders them is I believe this is possibly a human edited virus that escaped into the wild in China. So I'm still maintaining (a lower intensity level of) the precautionary principle in my life as a hedge. We need time to see what this virus does and mutates into going forward.

  

[MechAg94]

The cases in my local county have been trending down.  It doesn't mention hospitalizations.  Deaths are still trickling in, but they never spiked here anyway. 

I heard a comment yesterday that some of the testing might be too sensitive and it is giving positives for people who are not contagious.  The term had to do with the testing doing too many cycles to concentrate the sample, but I could be wrong on that.  I think it was a new study, but I didn't go looking for a link.

[dogmush]

Testing is up only slightly (22,779/wk), while positivity rates have been steadily trending down (5.27%)here.  Hospital occupancy (59.66%), admissions (33.33%) and ICU Occupancy (66.77%) are all up and, with some bumps in the rolling average, have been trending up-ish for most of Sep.

I'm told that at least some of the hospitalization increase is non-COVID patients that had put off elective stuff coming in and getting it done.  COVID-19 Hospital census is trending down, while the COVID ICU data is very noisy and doesn't really show a trend.

In general, locally, we're doing pretty good.  Like I said, the hospital is starting to see and track more second infections, but that hasn't made the county dashboard yet, and they are expecting a bump next week in response to our gov dropping all business restrictions. (and probably the Stanley cup win last night).  How big that bump will be is the question, but the local docs and county wonks think we have the capacity to handle what they expect.  I think the doc said he wouldn't be surprised to see daily new cases over 200 and positivity back over 6% in the second half of Oct here.  

[DittoHead]

I'm calling no second wave.

Maybe not where you are...

"To me it was striking. You could see the first wave, it was a nice bell shaped curve up and down, it flattened out, and then since then it’s been steadily rising and over the past three weeks you see that huge spike and that’s just the first limb of another bell shaped curve."

As of Monday, according to Dr. Casey, Bellin Hospital is at 92% capacity, with nearly 30 of those patients being treated for COVID-19. The increase in census has led the hospital to implement contingency plans, like staging overflow patients in hallways until rooms can be found for them. Bellin is also considering measures like discharging patients sooner or limiting elective surgeries like it did back in the spring.

This surge comes as the Bellin system as a whole has more than a hundred staff members quarantined because of exposure to COVID.

“We have no excess capacity and to have 150 people out on quarantine severely limits our ability to adequately care for the surge. It’s a big problem,” adds Dr. Casey.

[dogmush]

An interesting twitter thread from some folks whose models have been decent:

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1308498758548758531

EU looks to be seeing a second wave.

[bedlamite]

Deaths are still trickling in, but they never spiked here anyway. 

That's part of it, deaths have never really been that high. From the CDC's current best estimate of infection fatality ratio in percent:

0-19 years: 0.00003
20-49 years: 0.0002
50-69 years: 0.005
70+ years: 0.054

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

[TommyGunn]

An interesting twitter thread from some folks whose models have been decent:

https://twitter.com/youyanggu/status/1308498758548758531

EU looks to be seeing a second wave.

One "expert"  on  cable TV said the "second wave" in Europe was spikes in local areas that were relatively untouched by wave 1.   Sorta like a pond with numerous stones being tossed in and resulting interference ripples. 

The apparent ever-changing set of .... "facts"   (I use that word very guardedly) regarding THE ANDROMEDA STRAIN....ooops, I   mean covid19, is a source of great wonderment and enormous frustration to me.   I know the "no mask" dictum way back when was a lie to keep people from buying PPE  to the point healthcare workers would be deprived,  but it set a tone to me.   
Then we were told that covid19  would go dormant in the summer due to heat.
Anyone think that happened? ? ?   

I don't.


I know it's a  NEW virus.  Lots of unknowns.  And I really really really hate the politization of this.   

And,  I guess I'm just tired of the sturmandrung.

[dogmush]

One "expert"  on  cable TV said the "second wave" in Europe was spikes in local areas that were relatively untouched by wave 1.   Sorta like a pond with numerous stones being tossed in and resulting interference ripples. 

The modeler I linked to above was asked that very question, and responded thusly:

I think places that were hard-hit in March such as Lombardy, Madrid, Paris, and London will likely see a smaller second wave than the rest of their respective countries.

But they are still going to be impacted.

It remains to be seen if Stockholm will see another wave.

Obviously to a certain extent it's a "pick your expert" thing with COVID, which is why I try hard to limit what I post here to things I either heard first hand from the local hospital, or at most were relayed to me by a trusted friend that heard it first hand.

Covid19-projections.com has proven to be consistently pretty good as far as modeling goes, that's why I linked to his thread.  YMMV.

[makattak]

From April:



Today, from the doctor who made that chart:

James Todaro, MD
@JamesTodaroMD
Back in April, colleagues & I calculated the IFR for COVID-19 and determined fatality rates were similar to the flu for those under age 50.

Ppl called it “misinformation” back then.

Six months later, CDC reports similar COVID-19 IFR estimates:

0-19 yrs: 0.003%
20-49 yrs: 0.02%

https://twitter.com/JamesTodaroMD/status/1310659016834584582

HUH. Look at that. It's either less dangerous or comparable to the flu for people under 50 and even the CDC admits it now.

(In case you doubt that without the actual data- https://tallahasseereports.com/2020/09/26/cdc-releases-updated-covid-19-fatality-rate-data/)



But I was just a naif who relied on what "my mates" on the net said to have come to that same conclusion back in JUNE, while the doctor did it in April...

[tokugawa]

 This thing is so politicized all the reports, data ,etc are compromised. (or the corollary- some are accurate, but there is no way to tell which.)
 
 I know of one person who died  from covid. Never met him, my sisters husbands father. He was 101 years old, in bad shape. Anything could have pushed him over the edge.

 Nobody else I know has contracted it, anecdotal reports from some are they got an unusually bad flu this past winter, but it preceded any covid panic- so no testing.  Granted I don't mingle with many people, but still- one would think if this was really so severe, we would all know people who got real sick from it.
 
 Without the internet to fan the fear, I wonder if we would even know about it at all.  The reporting reminds me a lot of the climate change and gun control fear mongering.  A pretty good test run for social conditioning - we ought to be concerned that in the future people are going to look at us getting out of our cars the same way they look at us now without a mask....this is sort of an extension of how they reduced smoking, and how they go after firearms- partially by law, but mostly by making smokers and gun owners social pariahs. No reason they can't use the same techniques for climate change or whatever else strikes their fancy.  Of course, all of the "reasons" are BS, the "reasons" are just excuses to mandate control over people- and how sweet it must be to get people to act as the volunteer enforcers "for their own safety".

 What they will say- That gas spewing truck threatens us ALL. Just like your GUN. And not wearing a MASK. Or a bike helmet. Your actions cost us money and make us unsafe!

 Dad forecast this trend for me 50 years ago-"son, if they can tell you to wear a seatbelt or a helmet "to lessen the cost to society of hurting yourself", they can tell you to do anything for the good of society- we are all part of society, and anything we do has some effect on the rest".

 (And so ya'all don't go off on a tangent about risk, I don't smoke, I wear a helmet and I wear a seatbelt- but NOT because someone tells me to.")
 

 

[K Frame]

OK, stupid personal impact, but it's a personal impact...

I've been playing hell trying to get Seren a vet appointment. Her regular vet is now conducting appointment protocols that look to have significantly cut back on the number of patients they're able to see. Seren is coming up on needing some vaccinations to stay in daycare (end of October), so I gave a call last week... no available weekend appointments for over a month, and precious few weekday appointments (and none that I could make due to my job).

I understand their concerns -- it's a HUGE vet practice, literally employing dozens of people, plus they're an emergency vet center. If they had COVID run through there it would be a bad, bad thing, not only for their people, but also their clients and pets.

Fortunately, there's a vet practice sort of associated with Seren's daycare, and I was able to get an appointment with them for this Saturday. At least I'll be able to get her the critical vaccinations.

 

[De Selby]

But I was just a naif who relied on what "my mates" on the net said to have come to that same conclusion back in JUNE, while the doctor did it in April...

This is not you listening to your mates to judge risk, this is you choosing cherry picked sources to confirm your original beliefs which is even worse. Listening to randoms might actually give you an opinion informed by reliable data (for example, one of your mates might have checked the data.)

What you are doing is trawling the net for sources that confirm your opinion. That’s almost guaranteed to give you the wrong outcome.

In regards to the twitter account you posted and the Tallahassee report, you should check the CDC website. COVID deaths remain far higher than flu deaths and the case fatality ratio remains higher.

[makattak]

This is not you listening to your mates to judge risk, this is you choosing cherry picked sources to confirm your original beliefs which is even worse. Listening to randoms might actually give you an opinion informed by reliable data (for example, one of your mates might have checked the data.)

What you are doing is trawling the net for sources that confirm your opinion. That’s almost guaranteed to give you the wrong outcome.

In regards to the twitter account you posted and the Tallahassee report, you should check the CDC website. COVID deaths remain far higher than flu deaths and the case fatality ratio remains higher.

You mean this page? https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

This page that contains the very same table I posted?

Oh yes. I'm the one who needs to check my data.

And it's funny how I'm cherry picking my data... But by some cosmic coincidence, the more data and experience we get the data converges to what I said in June. (And the "twitter account" from the doctor who ran the data 6 months ago. Also just an amazing coincidence.)

You are free to believe your experts that predicted 2 million (or more) dead in the US alone. I'm sure they have it right now.

[Ned Hamford]

I've never known the annual flue season to need emergency hospital wards for intubated patients, ditto the emergency morgue trailers and mass graves.  But, I will say in fairness, its because cost cutting measures took out any degree for more than expected patients/fatalities.  Hospital buyouts and mergers have shifted focus to profit driven non medically necessary treatments over actual capacity to deal with the sick and injured. 

Given the rampant incompetence from our government and media, I am so utterly glad this wasn't anything worse.  Given the response from my fellow citizens... well, I see how we got this government.  New York; just outside an epicenter.

I saw my buddy who is a x-ray tech Sunday.  They've gone from patients lining the walls of the hallway to a couple in the covid ward.  I trust what my local hospital workers tell me for how full/busy their hospitals are more than any website.  Sadly, that leaves me out of luck when I want a larger picture. 

[Ron]

I guess this fall we will see about herd immunity, immunity from previous infection and just how much mutation wuflu goes through.

Remember, half of the respondents here don't even know anyone who has been infected let alone seriously sick.

Another large percentage only know one to a few who fought it off with no issues. Very few know anyone that has passed away due to covid.

But everyone here has been negatively impacted in multiple different ways by the government/media response and politicization of covid.

[Ned Hamford]

Just had a meeting for political candidates to telecast at and found our the former chair, 32 years old, 4 kids, had the corona, and while over it, has some significant lung damage. No preexisting conditions, just a really lousy roll of the dice.

Being near ground zero makes the internet experience really wierd. Everyone in this region knows folks dead and impacted, and others lucky enough to shake it off. My friend at the hospital shared how a coworker said 'thank God it's over' to get started at. Folks literally in the Covid Ward, but hey, he saw it on tv that morning. It reminds of that post on the internet, guy with a mom that's a retired nurse who was an anti masker, spouting about carbon dioxide poison. Brainwashed into forgetting all her training and education and the fact she would wear a mask regularly for long periods by her job.
Such a crazy time.