Author Topic: COVID19 predictions  (Read 42420 times)

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #425 on: May 20, 2020, 10:24:25 PM »
1918 Pandemic was a bit over 12 months long, Black Death was about 5 years. We've only been at this since December.

The implicit assumption and assertion is that these are all comparable. -  Ron


If you can comprehend how the Covid virus attacks the body and how the body responds, you might think a bit differently. Or you might not. That is just boilerplate fear mongering - Ron

Especially how more contagious Covid is vs the various flus and their strains. For both it's still a secondary infection that ends up killing the person, but the initial viral attack is what started it. 45% of Illinois deaths were in managed care facilities and the infection rates on board ships doesn't really support your assertion. - Ron  


For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

charby

  • Necromancer
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29,295
  • APS's Resident Sikh/Muslim
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #426 on: May 20, 2020, 11:22:36 PM »
Iowa- 88% more livable that the rest of the US

Uranus is a gas giant.

Team 444: Member# 536

cordex

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,570
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #427 on: May 21, 2020, 01:12:29 AM »
1918 Pandemic was a bit over 12 months long, Black Death was about 5 years. We've only been at this since December.
So do you claim that there will be 5 million US deaths by the end of the year?  By 2025?  By 2080?  Just trying to get a handle on exactly what you're estimating.

If you can comprehend how the Covid virus attacks the body and how the body responds, you might think a bit differently. Especially how more contagious Covid is vs the various flus and their strains. For both it's still a secondary infection that ends up killing the person, but the initial viral attack is what started it.
I suppose it is possible.  I'm happy to admit a good bit of ignorance and am happy to learn more.  From what I've seen so far, however, we're not going to hit 5 million deaths in the US short of a major mutation or a perpetual inability to develop immunity.

Out of interest, are you professing to have that level of comprehension?

Having crunched the numbers more than a few ways, I can get to 5 million using some not completely unreasonable assumptions.
1. We assume we've caught 50% of the infections.
2. We assume that the death rate we've seen by age group holds.
3. We assume every single American gets it.

Under those conditions we'll get about 5 million deaths.

That said, I don't think we've tested enough people to assume we've identified anywhere close to 50% of the infections especially given the known incidence of a significant number of people never manifesting detectable symptoms, and most of the testing is not capable of detecting previous infection - just active infection.

charby

  • Necromancer
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29,295
  • APS's Resident Sikh/Muslim
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #428 on: May 21, 2020, 06:39:38 AM »
So do you claim that there will be 5 million US deaths by the end of the year?  By 2025?  By 2080?  Just trying to get a handle on exactly what you're estimating.
I suppose it is possible.  I'm happy to admit a good bit of ignorance and am happy to learn more.  From what I've seen so far, however, we're not going to hit 5 million deaths in the US short of a major mutation or a perpetual inability to develop immunity.

Out of interest, are you professing to have that level of comprehension?

Having crunched the numbers more than a few ways, I can get to 5 million using some not completely unreasonable assumptions.
1. We assume we've caught 50% of the infections.
2. We assume that the death rate we've seen by age group holds.
3. We assume every single American gets it.

Under those conditions we'll get about 5 million deaths.

That said, I don't think we've tested enough people to assume we've identified anywhere close to 50% of the infections especially given the known incidence of a significant number of people never manifesting detectable symptoms, and most of the testing is not capable of detecting previous infection - just active infection.


No one knows when Covid is going to end, I really don't know why I said Sept 3rd, probably conjurned it out of thin air when asked for a date. I brought up those 2 psndemics because neither one lasted forever and both spread rapidly through a global population. We all think of inconvenient things far too short term and get pissy if it lasts too long.

I agree we haven't tested enough people, they need to open the testing flood gates and let anyone who volunteers to be tested, say no more than 1x week until this is over.

If it rains this weekend I'll post a few links to easy to read medical type journals thst explains what happens to the human body when a upper respiratory viral infection occurs.
Iowa- 88% more livable that the rest of the US

Uranus is a gas giant.

Team 444: Member# 536

K Frame

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 44,009
  • I Am Inimical
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #429 on: May 21, 2020, 07:58:40 AM »
"No one knows when Covid is going to end..."

According to some of the lefty crap I've read, it's NEVER going to end, so we need all of these draconian social measures maintained for years, and everyone has to be FORCED to take whatever vaccine they come up with.

It's all for the widdle chillruns, don't you know...

WON'T SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE WIDDLE CHILLRUNS???

Oh, and if it hurts Orange Man, that's even better!
Carbon Monoxide, sucking the life out of idiots, 'tards, and fools since man tamed fire.

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #430 on: May 21, 2020, 08:09:32 AM »
Dr Fauci doesn't agree with Charby  :laugh:

... this is not a major threat for the people in the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about. Jan 21

... the risk of contracting the virus is “minuscule.” Feb. 8

Now, in the United States, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask. Feb. 17

“right now, at this moment, there is no need to change anything you’re doing on a day-to-day basis.” Feb. 29

“If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.” March 9

 “… the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.” March 26
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Ron

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 10,881
  • Like a tree planted by the rivers of water
    • What I believe ...
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #431 on: May 21, 2020, 08:19:33 AM »
Seeing as this is the prediction thread, let's get a prediction from good ol' Dr. Fauci

Jan. 12, 2017: “And if there’s one message that I want to leave with you today based on my experience, and you’ll see that in a moment, is that there is no question that there will be a challenge to the coming administration in the arena of infectious diseases, both chronic infectious diseases, in the sense of already ongoing disease, and we have certainly a large burden of that, but also there will be a surprise outbreak.”
For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

cordex

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 8,570
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #432 on: May 21, 2020, 08:32:29 AM »
No one knows when Covid is going to end, I really don't know why I said Sept 3rd, probably conjurned it out of thin air when asked for a date.
Of course no one knows.  No one knows how many people are going to die either, but we've been guessing anyway.  This thread is about predictions, isn't it?

My initial guess has proven to almost certainly be low (<100,000 by end of year).  Yours appears to be way high based on everything we've seen so far in this country and in other countries ahead of us, but you keep shifting the goalposts so it is hard to tell.

I brought up those 2 psndemics because neither one lasted forever and both spread rapidly through a global population. We all think of inconvenient things far too short term and get pissy if it lasts too long.
I'd argue that given our trade and travel velocity we should expect a much faster rate of spread than in either of those pandemics.

While you're looking up My First Medical Journal articles for me, maybe take a look at some of the preliminary random sample serology test results and - assuming that humans can develop immunity - how that impacts the death rate.

Your estimate requires a minimum of a 1.5% infection mortality rate assuming every single person in the US gets it.  I don't think 100% infection rate is likely, nor do any of the antibody results I've seen indicate a 1.5% current death rate is realistic.

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #433 on: May 21, 2020, 08:50:29 AM »

Your estimate requires a minimum of a 1.5% infection mortality rate assuming every single person in the US gets it.  I don't think 100% infection rate is likely, nor do any of the antibody results I've seen indicate a 1.5% current death rate is realistic.

The one place I'll mostly agree with Charby is on "universal" testing. None of our arguments here can be anything but WAGs without it. With it, we might be able to approach SWAGs.

Obviously for most statistical analysis, you don't need very large sample sets. Lots of very accurate analyses have been done with the sample set sizes we currently have for the beer virus. The difference is randomness. IMO, based on current testing parameters and not just who can get tested, but who WANTS to be tested, all our numbers are biased towards a higher infection rate and mortality rate, as well as more severe symptoms. I'm guessing there is a LARGE portion of the population that had a cough or sore throat, or just felt tired for a couple of days and didn't think anything about it, and ended up having the virus.

I would be interested in a truly random sample set of 100,000 people. Maybe that is being done, but I haven't seen anything about it.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Perd Hapley

  • Superstar of the Internet
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 61,333
  • My prepositions are on/in
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #434 on: May 21, 2020, 05:47:35 PM »
I agree we haven't tested enough people, they need to open the testing flood gates and let anyone who volunteers to be tested, say no more than 1x week until this is over.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/as-coronavirus-testing-expands-a-new-problem-arises-not-enough-people-to-test/2020/05/17/3f3297de-8bcd-11ea-8ac1-bfb250876b7a_story.html

Quote
Four months into the U.S. coronavirus outbreak, tests for the virus finally are becoming widely available, a crucial step toward lifting stay-at-home orders and safely returning to normal life. But while many states no longer report crippling supply shortages, a new problem has emerged: too few people lining up to get tested.

A Washington Post survey of governors’ offices and state health departments found at least a dozen states where testing capacity outstrips the supply of patients. Many have scrambled to make testing more convenient, especially for vulnerable communities, by setting up pop-up sites and developing apps that help assess symptoms, find free test sites and deliver quick results.

But the numbers, while rising, are well short of capacity — and far short of targets set by independent experts.
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife

grampster

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 9,435
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #435 on: May 21, 2020, 06:03:53 PM »
"...No one knows when Covid is going to end,..."

Actually it's never going to end, even if there is a vaccine.  A virus never goes away.  It's here and it will stay here.  The best you can do is find ways to manage it.  Nearly every day there is new information with respect to how this became a worldwide pandemic under false pretenses.  Was there a disease that spread around the world?  Yes.  Was it worthy of the political/MSM *expletive deleted*it storm it became.  I don't think so, and I think over the next few months what my grandmother always told me as a kid..."The truth will out."  She also said "Never lie, tell the truth, because then you won't have to remember the story."
"Never wrestle with a pig.  You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."  G.B. Shaw

Doggy Daddy

  • Poobah
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 5,330
  • From the saner side of Las Vegas
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #436 on: May 22, 2020, 07:02:07 AM »
The real covid danger now is people being run over by moving goal posts.
Would you exchange
a walk-on part in a war
for a lead role in a cage?
-P.F.

Perd Hapley

  • Superstar of the Internet
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 61,333
  • My prepositions are on/in
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #437 on: May 22, 2020, 09:47:36 AM »
The real covid danger now is people being run over by moving goal posts.

 :rofl:
"Doggies are angel babies!" -- my wife

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #438 on: May 22, 2020, 10:03:03 AM »
Here's a prediction based on what I've been hearing on the news: Silicon Valley becomes irrelevant. A good portion of tech companies are now offering permanent "work from home" options for employees. So instead of camping in the Google parking lot or paying $6000/mo to rent an apartment, more of their workers will be living out of the area or out of the state.

If it's a trend that continues, all those companies will be able to significantly downsize their physical footprints and thus reduce their CA tax liabilities. While the big tech companies have always been pro- work from home, I've always been surprised that they didn't go more whole hog on it much earlier. The virus may have ended up being the push to show them that expanding the option is completely viable, and perhaps even more profitable.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

RoadKingLarry

  • friends
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 21,841
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #439 on: May 22, 2020, 10:50:26 AM »
I thought we were all gonna be dead by now ???
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

makattak

  • Dark Lord of the Cis
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,022
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #440 on: May 22, 2020, 11:04:00 AM »
Here's a prediction based on what I've been hearing on the news: Silicon Valley becomes irrelevant. A good portion of tech companies are now offering permanent "work from home" options for employees. So instead of camping in the Google parking lot or paying $6000/mo to rent an apartment, more of their workers will be living out of the area or out of the state.

If it's a trend that continues, all those companies will be able to significantly downsize their physical footprints and thus reduce their CA tax liabilities. While the big tech companies have always been pro- work from home, I've always been surprised that they didn't go more whole hog on it much earlier. The virus may have ended up being the push to show them that expanding the option is completely viable, and perhaps even more profitable.

AT MUCH LESS EXPENSE, any of these companies could pay to upgrade the internet infrastructure of any number of random small towns in the country and provide a low cost location for "hubs" of workers, allowing for working from home, but still the ability to bring workers together for whatever might be necessary.

Instead, they have to pay outrageous salaries just so workers can afford to live in their massively expensive urban areas. I'm still amazed no one has done this without the prompting of a global disease.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

MillCreek

  • Skippy The Wonder Dog
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 19,964
  • APS Risk Manager
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #441 on: May 22, 2020, 11:32:46 AM »
^^^I would point out that in Seattle, and probably for SF and other tech hubs, the young(ish) tech workers seem to enjoy living and working in the amenities of the urban city. I know a whole bunch of dot com workers in the area, and they are working from their urban condos and apartments in Seattle as part of the COVID response.  I suspect they are not all going to head for the suburbs if they are permanently work from home, at least until they start having children.
_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

charby

  • Necromancer
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29,295
  • APS's Resident Sikh/Muslim
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #442 on: May 22, 2020, 11:43:30 AM »
^^^I would point out that in Seattle, and probably for SF and other tech hubs, the young(ish) tech workers seem to enjoy living and working in the amenities of the urban city. I know a whole bunch of dot com workers in the area, and they are working from their urban condos and apartments in Seattle as part of the COVID response.  I suspect they are not all going to head for the suburbs if they are permanently work from home, at least until they start having children.

I was going to say the same thing. Not going to find an espresso machine, wheat grass juicer, microbrewery, sushi bar, vegan joint in Pomeroy, IA, but they do have Byron's Legendary Bar (where the who's who of the eclectic and indie music world has played).
Iowa- 88% more livable that the rest of the US

Uranus is a gas giant.

Team 444: Member# 536

MechAg94

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 33,622
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #443 on: May 22, 2020, 11:46:42 AM »
I talked to one of our senior engineers.  He spends all day in conference calls for engineering reviews and such.  He told me the main difference now is he doesn't have 2 hours of driving in traffic every day.  The only thing he knows is missing is the random questions and quick discussions that happen in the hallway and people can't just swing by your office.  

Another engineer is trying to get signatures on a design review form for a small project.  Normally, he could carry it around to each person, but with everyone at home, it becomes more difficult.  That process doesn't have an electronic approval system.

Our company may not change anything, but I figure they may expand on policies allowing employees to work from home.  A long commute becomes a lot easier to deal with if you only have to do it a couple days a week. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

K Frame

  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 44,009
  • I Am Inimical
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #444 on: May 22, 2020, 01:32:05 PM »
If I could work remotely I'd give serious consideration to moving out of DC Metro and to a much more rural area.

But, most of the work that I do these days requires me to work in a SCIF on secured networks. Can't do that from home, generally.
Carbon Monoxide, sucking the life out of idiots, 'tards, and fools since man tamed fire.

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #445 on: May 22, 2020, 01:49:04 PM »
^^^I would point out that in Seattle, and probably for SF and other tech hubs, the young(ish) tech workers seem to enjoy living and working in the amenities of the urban city. I know a whole bunch of dot com workers in the area, and they are working from their urban condos and apartments in Seattle as part of the COVID response.  I suspect they are not all going to head for the suburbs if they are permanently work from home, at least until they start having children.

I see your point, but submit that Seattle is in fact a "goto" place for these workers. From my work days, I remember lots of the young professionals, most all liberals, would practically get in fist fights to grab an opening at our Seattle complex to get out of SanFran or DC. Same if a rare opening came up in my office in Santa Barbara.

Lots of places give them the culture they want without the expense, crime, poop, and other bad stuff in SanFran.

A sampling of places I have been that would appeal to young liberal tech workers looking for culture, food and other hipster lifestyle stuff:

Boise, ID (in fact many of them are moving there from what I see)
Boulder, CO
Santa Barbara, CA
Mammoth, CA
Helena, MT
Charleston, SC
Charlotte, NC
Key West, FL
San Antonio, TX
Ambergris Cay, Belize (surprisingly fast Internet)
Grand Cayman Island
Munich, Germany
Stockholm, Sweden

Plus for that matter, not all of them WANT an urban life. Heck, Mark Zuckerburg has been doing the "back to the land" homestead thing for years now. Especially after the virus, a lot of these young people are getting into it as well
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

makattak

  • Dark Lord of the Cis
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 13,022
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #446 on: May 22, 2020, 01:59:30 PM »
Plus for that matter, not all of them WANT an urban life. Heck, Mark Zuckerburg has been doing the "back to the land" homestead thing for years now. Especially after the virus, a lot of these young people are getting into it as well

Excuse me, I'm off to start a gardening for coders camp. BRB!

I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

charby

  • Necromancer
  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 29,295
  • APS's Resident Sikh/Muslim
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #447 on: May 22, 2020, 02:03:52 PM »
I see your point, but submit that Seattle is in fact a "goto" place for these workers. From my work days, I remember lots of the young professionals, most all liberals, would practically get in fist fights to grab an opening at our Seattle complex to get out of SanFran or DC. Same if a rare opening came up in my office in Santa Barbara.

Lots of places give them the culture they want without the expense, crime, poop, and other bad stuff in SanFran.

A sampling of places I have been that would appeal to young liberal tech workers looking for culture, food and other hipster lifestyle stuff:

Boise, ID (in fact many of them are moving there from what I see)
Boulder, CO
Santa Barbara, CA
Mammoth, CA
Helena, MT
Charleston, SC
Charlotte, NC
Key West, FL
San Antonio, TX
Ambergris Cay, Belize (surprisingly fast Internet)
Grand Cayman Island
Munich, Germany
Stockholm, Sweden

Plus for that matter, not all of them WANT an urban life. Heck, Mark Zuckerburg has been doing the "back to the land" homestead thing for years now. Especially after the virus, a lot of these young people are getting into it as well


I wonder how many of those cities/towns you mentioned would even want an big influx of younger adults with different social norms.
Iowa- 88% more livable that the rest of the US

Uranus is a gas giant.

Team 444: Member# 536

MillCreek

  • Skippy The Wonder Dog
  • friend
  • Senior Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 19,964
  • APS Risk Manager
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #448 on: May 22, 2020, 02:28:17 PM »
If I was young and single, or old and single, I would move to Boise or Helena in a heartbeat.  I have been to both areas on business, and really like them.
_____________
Regards,
MillCreek
Snohomish County, WA  USA


Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

Ben

  • Administrator
  • Senior Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 45,745
  • I'm an Extremist!
Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #449 on: May 22, 2020, 03:01:01 PM »
I wonder how many of those cities/towns you mentioned would even want an big influx of younger adults with different social norms.

Newsflash - most of the towns I mentioned already have the influx, hence their mention.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."