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COVID19 predictions
Perd Hapley:
Not sure what you guys are complaining about. Celebrities sang for us. Celebrities!
lee n. field:
--- Quote from: lee n. field on May 28, 2020, 12:04:04 PM ---Data point here. My brother the nurse tells me:
With reference to the beer virus. He's in Rockford, IL. Urban area of 300-someodd-thousand(ish). He's in one of the hospitals there.
--- End quote ---
A couple more steps in the ongoing conversation:
Me
--- Quote ---Just guessing, Mentally handicapped, group home or other subprime housing situation. L & B, just being poor.
--- End quote ---
Him
--- Quote ---Yep. For L&B it's about socialization. Large families, or complex families with needs. Also lots of younger people who can't be kept home, working or socializing. It isn't just high british officials who want to see their girlfriends.
--- End quote ---
cordex:
Thought I'd gather up some of the predictions and see how they've aged so far.
Currently the US is at 5,513,167 confirmed cases, with 2,387,621 currently infected, and 173,055 dead.
Daily deaths spiked nationally in April-May, had a lull in June, and increased slightly into August. Daily confirmed cases had an initial spike in March, dropped down toward mid-June and hit a big spike in July. Currently daily confirmed cases appear to be dropping significantly since 7/15.
In the US, lockdowns have so far apparently helped to "flatten the curve" as originally intended, but the message quickly morphed to an unsustainable technique for permanent prevention. Some states with lockdowns still in effect have had serious issues. Some states with no lockdown have had serious issues. In essence, lockdowns did not seem to serve to actually prevent the disease, just drag it out over a longer time period.
--- Quote from: French G. on March 18, 2020, 12:46:38 AM ---1-3000 deaths and by June life is pretty normal.
--- End quote ---
Currently at 5,735% of this guess.
Wishful thinking!
--- Quote from: charby on March 17, 2020, 03:01:33 PM ---I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.
--- End quote ---
Currently at 3.4% of this guess.
So far way, way high and no apparent way to hit this in any reasonable amount of time, much less in the next two weeks as the initial "September 3rd" clarification would require. I sure hope 4,827,945 people don't die in the next two weeks.
--- Quote from: Ron on March 19, 2020, 09:03:42 AM ---I predict
Over 99% of the country will survive.
The government will end up even more powerful.
The rich will still be rich.
The poor will still be poor.
--- End quote ---
If we take the literal implication that 1% of the US will die, then the guess of 3.28 million was a high and we are currently at 5.2% of this guess.
Otherwise a very accurate prediction.
--- Quote from: Jamisjockey on March 20, 2020, 08:56:32 AM ---In 10 days, we'll have at least 6 major cities including New York where the hospitals are war zones.
I'm doubling down on my prediction that the US ends up with the most overall confirmed cases, and ends up with a very high death toll.
--- End quote ---
No numbers to evaluate.
I don't think very many US hospitals looked like war zones - especially not across six major cities at a go. NYC maybe, though. US has far and away the most confirmed cases and has a very high death toll, so all in all a pretty accurate (if vague) guess.
--- Quote from: charby on March 23, 2020, 07:57:19 AM ---This will transfer over to our swine herds and kill a lot of pigs.
--- End quote ---
I didn't see any articles about this. Has COVID started killing pigs?
--- Quote from: Nick1911 on March 23, 2020, 11:21:12 PM ---So 4 million dead Americans.
--- End quote ---
Currently at 4.3% of this guess.
--- Quote from: cordex on March 28, 2020, 12:04:00 PM ---I’m guessing way less than that. I don’t have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.
In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing. The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.
--- End quote ---
Currently at 172% of this guess.
Way optimistic on deaths (even if the guess made me look like a pessimist when I posted it). Current US death rate is 3.1%, which is the opposite direction from what I thought it would go.
--- Quote from: charby on March 28, 2020, 12:16:30 PM ---As sadistic as this sounds, we're just getting started and it's been a fustercluck from the start, the all ready loaded medical/hospital system is going to crash hard, plus we simply don't have enough medical aids/nurses/drs nationwide for this.
Going to be like Italy where old people are just let to die and alone because of no visitors.
--- End quote ---
On a national level the medical/hospital system has not crashed hard. Ended up having way too many docs/nurses/medical aids.
Some old people did die alone because of no visitors. I don't think we had a widespread policy of not treating old people the way Italy did, though.
--- Quote from: charby on March 28, 2020, 11:52:25 AM ---I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.
--- End quote ---
Currently at under 8.6% of this guess. Very prescient condemnation of BLM riots, though.
--- Quote from: Jamisjockey on March 29, 2020, 07:49:11 AM ---I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high. I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations. NY, LA primarily.
Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.
--- End quote ---
Currently at 860% of this guess.
Way low on deaths. Not bad about pointing out the wildly disproportionate impact on NYC and LA.
--- Quote from: Ron on March 31, 2020, 10:19:21 AM ---My unscientific, intuitive prediction is ... 50k or fewer will sucomb to this virus in the USA.
Most all of them will be elderly and/or having preexisting complications.
--- End quote ---
Currently at 344% of this guess.
Low on the death count, correct on the demographics.
--- Quote from: charby on May 19, 2020, 12:25:21 PM ---After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction [5 million dead "before this is all over"].
--- End quote ---
Currently at 3.4% of this guess.
Way high by all appearances, but I never could get charby to settle on a new date after the first one, so maybe he'll be proven correct on some as-yet-uncertain date in the future. Also funny how many times the guess and time frame changed despite "sticking with" it. Also, the whole "dying bleeding from the eyes" thing kind of went away...
Perd Hapley:
I predict no second wave. There may be increased infection or death rates in some places that will be referred to as a second wave (as we have already seen) but that will just be the first wave hitting some place it had largely bypassed until then.
bedlamite:
https://twitter.com/pdabrosca/status/1295789508223479810
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