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Author Topic: COVID19 predictions  (Read 20524 times)
Nick1911
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« on: March 17, 2020, 09:32:30 AM »

Time to log your predictions!

How do you predict the future of this pandemic to go?  What further actions will governments in the US and world take?  How long will the various measures be in effect for?  What supply shortages will be most critical?  What will the longer term economic damage be? 

Rub your crystal ball and tell us, how do you see this playing out?
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Ben
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2020, 09:35:42 AM »

Well, I just saw the money we're throwing at it, including stimulus, has now gone from Trump's original 2 billion to 850 billion. I need some time to think about the effects of that.
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Mike Irwin
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« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2020, 09:52:33 AM »

We're all dead! DEAD!

Whoo Hoo Floo is going to kill us all!

Game over, man! Game over!
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WLJ
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« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2020, 10:06:33 AM »

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brimic
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« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2020, 10:23:58 AM »


Time to log your predictions!

How do you predict the future of this pandemic to go? Worse than anyone thinks.

 What further actions will governments in the US and world take? Lockdowns, Quarantines, and Building more incinerators.

 How long will the various measures be in effect for?  What supply shortages will be most critical? Food, medications- 20% of our population is on psychiatrist prescribed drugs.
 What will the longer term economic damage be?  Not Sure, Fed already cut rates to ZERO- that was a desperation move. The entire healthcare sector dealing with senior citizens is going to collapse. Not sure we will recognize the economy in today's terms when its all over.

Rub your crystal ball and tell us, how do you see this playing out? Die off larger than we've seen in generations. Lingering and crippling issues caused by the virus- chronic health problems due to organ damage, rapid decline and death upon later upon reinfection, fertility issues due to testicular lesions caused by the virus.

I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I've been wrong about much as its played out so far.
Keep an eye on Italy- its like looking 2 weeks into our own future.
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AZRedhawk44
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« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2020, 10:39:50 AM »

Die off larger than we've seen in generations. Lingering and crippling issues caused by the virus- chronic health problems due to organ damage, rapid decline and death upon later upon reinfection, fertility issues due to testicular lesions caused by the virus.




 shocked Huh? shocked

Wow.  First I've heard of this.
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lee n. field
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« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2020, 10:42:07 AM »



Eventually.

The Stand this ain't.
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2020, 10:52:29 AM »

Eventually.

The Stand this ain't.

Sarcasm doesn't always come through correctly on a forum
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charby
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« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2020, 11:01:33 AM »

I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.

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cordex
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« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2020, 11:12:05 AM »

I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.
"Before this is all over"?  When would that be?
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Mike Irwin
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« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2020, 11:14:21 AM »

"Before this is all over"?  When would that be?

Over? When would it be over?

It's not over until we say it's over!
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brimic
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« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2020, 11:17:11 AM »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/wuhan-doctors-warn-coronavirus-could-cause-male-infertility
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« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2020, 11:22:44 AM »

My bets:

1.  Airlines grounded by next Monday, March 23rd.  Probably lasts 1 week.
2.  Other mass transit gets similar restrictions.  Trains, subways, buses.  But less scrutiny.  Workers gotta work.
3.  Another/continuing run on stores for short and long-term needs.
4.  A few riots/mobs/mob theft in high density population areas.
5.  The country basically shuts down for two weeks, March 23 to April 6.  Soft reboot from there.

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charby
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« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2020, 11:24:29 AM »

"Before this is all over"?  When would that be?

Let's pick Sept 3, 2020.
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« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2020, 11:52:27 AM »

5 million dead in the U.S. by September?
And I thought I was pessimistic.  shocked

My only prediction at the moment is that this will drag on much longer (both the pandemic, partial shutdown & the economic downturn) than most people think.
We will be adjusting to a "new normal" into next year, economic recovery will be slow and the deficit is going to explode.
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« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2020, 11:56:28 AM »

The government will fast track the vaccine, which will be available this fall. Most people will get it and the Chinese virus will have become one more "flu" to deal with.  

Summer will cause a natural ebb in the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, leading to a recovery. By election time, the stock market will have been recovered and Trump sails to victory.

Oh, and all the spending moves us 6 months closer to the reckoning for unfunded liabilities.
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I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought
brimic
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« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2020, 12:02:32 PM »

5 million dead in the U.S. by September?
And I thought I was pessimistic.  shocked

My only prediction at the moment is that this will drag on much longer (both the pandemic, partial shutdown & the economic downturn) than most people think.
We will be adjusting to a "new normal" into next year, economic recovery will be slow and the deficit is going to explode.

I think that's optimistic....
I'd pick a number 2-3x higher, though I don't think this is going to be over by September.
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Ben
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« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2020, 12:34:16 PM »

Summer will cause a natural ebb in the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, leading to a recovery. By election time, the stock market will have been recovered and Trump sails to victory.



This was my original prediction, but I might be starting to lean in Dittohead's direction. Mostly because of these bajillions and gazillions of dollars in bailouts, stimulus, and general free stuff being bandied about. We'll get out of it, but it might take longer.

Trump needs to hope for a Summer pop in general activity that will lead to a positive third quarter for the election. The second quarter is going to completely blow, that's a near certainty. If that gets dragged out to third, it's going to be really bad PR for Trump.
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fistful
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« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2020, 12:45:42 PM »

China has had 3000-some deaths so far. Italy more than 2500. Why are we talking millions?
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MechAg94
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« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2020, 01:07:48 PM »

I heard a prediction that it will all be over in time to have the state and national party conventions ahead of the Presidential Election. 
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Jim147
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« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2020, 01:48:06 PM »

National debt over 25T.
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Jamisjockey
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« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2020, 02:20:59 PM »

My bets:

1.  Airlines grounded by next Monday, March 23rd.  Probably lasts 1 week.
2.  Other mass transit gets similar restrictions.  Trains, subways, buses.  But less scrutiny.  Workers gotta work.
3.  Another/continuing run on stores for short and long-term needs.
4.  A few riots/mobs/mob theft in high density population areas.
5.  The country basically shuts down for two weeks, March 23 to April 6.  Soft reboot from there.



I think number 5 will be more like 4 weeks.  Italy is expected to hit peak cases today/tomorrow.
I see no other flaws in your list.

Numbers.  I think the US hits 100-120k infected.  5k deaths.  Everyone will be talking about how it wasn't "that big of a deal" except for any healthcare worker in a major city.
Easy prediction, most major cities will get their *expletive deleted*it pushed in.  Those of us in more rural climes generally won't see much effect besides the lockdowns of business and food shortages.
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JD

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Jamisjockey
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« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2020, 02:21:54 PM »

China has had 3000-some deaths so far. Italy more than 2500. Why are we talking millions?

Millions if we let this just run wild.  Not sure why the government is talking that way, when we see states and cities and businesses taking action to slow/prevent the spread.  Maybe to scare us into doing the right thing.
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JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. ôRobert Hollisö
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« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2020, 02:43:02 PM »

The DMC/MSM will continue to deliberately hype and inflate the dangers of COVID-19.  Government at all levels will continue to over-react to the threat.  The economy will tank as a result.  Millions of people will be put out of work.  Unemployment will explode.  Economic recovery will take at least 18 months, but likely longer.  Democrats will strengthen their hold on the House, take the Senate, and President Biden will be replaced by Vice President HRC early in the new term after the 2020 elections.  That is exactly the result the MSM/DNC are planning for from their actions.
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« Reply #24 on: March 17, 2020, 07:40:23 PM »

shocked Huh? shocked

Wow.  First I've heard of this.

Yep, been known for about a month:

http://www.armedpolitesociety.com/index.php?topic=61772.msg1242277#msg1242277
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