Author Topic: COVID19 predictions  (Read 42403 times)

Ron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #50 on: March 19, 2020, 09:03:42 AM »
I predict

Over 99% of the country will survive.

The government will end up even more powerful.

The rich will still be rich.

The poor will still be poor.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

charby

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #51 on: March 19, 2020, 10:54:04 AM »
I don't want a payment.  I can take care of myself.  FedGov wants to give me money? Just reduce my taxes.

I'm torn between getting an early 50's 2 door post Chevy or a HD evo project bike with my government check, both would make me happy.

I found a running 53 Chevy 2 door post with 38k original miles on it for $2300, I want something I can modify, not keep original, have a hard time not cutting up a low mileage survivor. I want something with a modern front end (Camaro), 12 bolt rear end, disk brakes and LS1 engine.
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K Frame

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #52 on: March 19, 2020, 11:54:06 AM »
If fiat money accrues interest but no one is there it calculate it, does still exist?

Exchange it for fiat notes as a ready source of toilet paper.
Carbon Monoxide, sucking the life out of idiots, 'tards, and fools since man tamed fire.

brimic

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #53 on: March 19, 2020, 12:48:08 PM »
I'm torn between getting an early 50's 2 door post Chevy or a HD evo project bike with my government check, both would make me happy.

I found a running 53 Chevy 2 door post with 38k original miles on it for $2300, I want something I can modify, not keep original, have a hard time not cutting up a low mileage survivor. I want something with a modern front end (Camaro), 12 bolt rear end, disk brakes and LS1 engine.

Evo harleys are super cheap these days, very easy to work on, and pretty reliable.
I'd be tempted to buy another for a project bike (really want a FLH) but I already have 2 in my barn already.
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RocketMan

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #54 on: March 19, 2020, 01:57:14 PM »
Exchange it for fiat notes as a ready source of toilet paper.

Make sure to get it in $1 denomination bills to maximize the investment.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #55 on: March 19, 2020, 04:19:49 PM »
Exchange it for fiat notes as a ready source of toilet paper.

Did you know it would be cheaper to buy Venezuelan currency than to try and get a case of *expletive deleted*it paper these days?
1 USD to VEF = 248487.4508
A 30 pack of quilted northern is $24.  $24 gets you 5963698.8192 Venezuelan.  You could wipe your ass for years!
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

AZRedhawk44

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #56 on: March 19, 2020, 04:29:23 PM »
Did you know it would be cheaper to buy Venezuelan currency than to try and get a case of *expletive deleted*it paper these days?
1 USD to VEF = 248487.4508
A 30 pack of quilted northern is $24.  $24 gets you 5963698.8192 Venezuelan.  You could wipe your ass for years!

The smallest "Bolivar soberano" banknote you can get as of 2019 is the 10,000 Bolivar note.  So you can get 5900 pieces of paper out of that value, if you can find someone that has 10k notes.  I'm willing to bet they have fallen even farther since the most recent update on Wikipedia regarding their currency, and it may be that for 2020 they're only printing 100k notes or even larger.

I can't find any data on the paper/cotton content of the Bolivar Soberano notes though.  Might be worse than public shytter TP.
"But whether the Constitution really be one thing, or another, this much is certain - that it has either authorized such a government as we have had, or has been powerless to prevent it. In either case, it is unfit to exist."
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HankB

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #57 on: March 19, 2020, 06:52:56 PM »
The smallest "Bolivar soberano" banknote you can get as of 2019 is the 10,000 Bolivar note.  So you can get 5900 pieces of paper out of that value, if you can find someone that has 10k notes.  I'm willing to bet they have fallen even farther since the most recent update on Wikipedia regarding their currency, and it may be that for 2020 they're only printing 100k notes or even larger.

I can't find any data on the paper/cotton content of the Bolivar Soberano notes though.  Might be worse than public shytter TP.
Just imagine your paper supply if you could get this much in ones . . .

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RocketMan

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #58 on: March 19, 2020, 07:21:23 PM »
This guy needs to be silenced.  We cannot afford to inject any sanity into the COVID-19 panic.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #59 on: March 20, 2020, 07:52:37 AM »
This guy needs to be silenced.  We cannot afford to inject any sanity into the COVID-19 panic.

Tell that to the hospitals in Italy right now.  For a smart dude, he skips right over how the first world health care system in Italy has been crushed under the weight of caring for people on ventilators.

Let's say he's in fact correct.  The corrected death rate is low, because of the walking wounded/asymptomatic.  I believe that's probably true anyway.
The problem with his argument is that among the people who test positive, a very high number end up in the hospital.

Read up on what it's doing to their healthcare system.  Because clearly your source didn't bother.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #60 on: March 20, 2020, 08:41:52 AM »
I think your primary error is assuming that Italy is a  homogeneous 1st world country.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #61 on: March 20, 2020, 08:56:32 AM »
I think your primary error is assuming that Italy is a  homogeneous 1st world country.

According to the WHO, they're ranked #2 in the world for efficiency in their health care system, so....


In 10 days, we'll have at least 6 major cities including New York where the hospitals are war zones.

I'm doubling down on my prediction that the US ends up with the most overall confirmed cases, and ends up with a very high death toll.


JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

DittoHead

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #62 on: March 20, 2020, 09:03:49 AM »
I think your primary error is assuming that Italy is a  homogeneous 1st world country.

I'm not saying they don't have some deficiencies, but statistically they look pretty good: More hospital beds per capita and a longer life expectancy.
We have higher rates of those underlying conditions that exacerbate the corona virus like diabetes and high blood pressure.
Maybe our lower average age and lower smoking rate will be enough to make up for it but I'm not counting on it.
Certain parts of Italy got hit hard. I think certain parts of the US will get hit just as hard.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

WLJ

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #63 on: March 20, 2020, 09:12:17 AM »
According to the WHO, they're ranked #2 in the world for efficiency in their health care system, so....

They seem to rank systems much higher if all the money to pay for it is taken out before you get your paycheck (you never saw it thus it's "free"!) compared to systems where you're given the choice to pay for it somewhat or mostly if not all afterwards.  
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #64 on: March 20, 2020, 09:41:18 AM »
They seem to rank systems much higher if all the money to pay for it is taken out before you get your paycheck (you never saw it thus it's "free"!) compared to systems where you're given the choice to pay for it somewhat or mostly if not all afterwards.  

https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdf

Read it yourself. 

The top 50 are all first world countries, mostly western with a few of the rich Middle East or Asian countries.

They rank it off of a number of factors including things like available hospital beds, etc etc.

But hey, they're a paltry #6 in life expectancy. 
https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/

Oh!  Here's a list we beat the *expletive deleted*ck out of them on....
The obesity list.  They're #107.  We're #12
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2228rank.html


Do I agree with nationalized, single payer health care?  No. But some countries do it well.  Italy is much healthier than the United States. 
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #65 on: March 20, 2020, 10:16:33 AM »
Quote
According to the WHO, they're ranked #2 in the world for efficiency in their health care system, so....

So suddenly the WHO is above reproach and infallible? I've seen plenty of criticism here and elsewhere about them, particularly for their heavy socialist bent and a strong penchant towards demonizing anything American.
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #66 on: March 20, 2020, 10:21:17 AM »
So suddenly the WHO is above reproach and infallible? I've seen plenty of criticism here and elsewhere about them, particularly for their heavy socialist bent and a strong penchant towards demonizing anything American.

No organization is above reproach.  I provided other non who sources of indications of Italians enjoying better health than Americans....so...

JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

brimic

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #67 on: March 20, 2020, 10:30:56 AM »


Let's say he's in fact correct. 



There are other things that the author has never thought of, that most others haven't considered either out of sheer hubris.
We know very little about the after effects of an infection.
Does the initial infection permanently damage lungs/organs/testes?
Does the initial infection actually clear, or does it lie dormant in cerebral spinal fluid, waiting to come out an play another day, like herpes?
Are reinfections possible, and if so, how much more severe are they?
Are reports of cytokine storm 'sudden death' true from re-infection? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30628-0/fulltext?rss=yes

Without knowing the answers to all of the above, I'd prefer to NOT be infected in the first place. This is all new, and any missteps can cause a catastrophe, if we aren't heading for one already.
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

"AK47's belong in the hands of soldiers mexican drug cartels"-
Barack Obama

RoadKingLarry

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If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

Samuel Adams

Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #69 on: March 20, 2020, 11:13:13 AM »
Just to keep things in perspective -

https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalization-rates-high-children-young-adults/

Which compounds the Kung-flu problem.  If people are getting hospitalized at a high rate for regular flu, too, that really will tax the healthcare system.  If it breaks, old people are being left in hallways to die, just like Italy.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”

brimic

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #70 on: March 20, 2020, 11:43:37 AM »
Perspective- they don't shut down the entire country to prevent 20,000 flu deaths... just how many deaths are we expecting?
"now you see that evil will always triumph, because good is dumb" -Dark Helmet

"AK47's belong in the hands of soldiers mexican drug cartels"-
Barack Obama

Ben

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #71 on: March 20, 2020, 11:55:19 AM »
Don't know where it fits in, but I just heard on the news that of all reported cases in NY (don't know if they meant state or city), 18% required hospitalization.
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DittoHead

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #72 on: March 20, 2020, 12:04:59 PM »
Don't know where it fits in, but I just heard on the news that of all reported cases in NY (don't know if they meant state or city), 18% required hospitalization.

But again that's skewed due to lack of testing. They aren't hardly testing people unless they may need hospitalization.
A friend of my wife's in NYC got tested (came back positive yesterday). Took a week and a half, multiple ER visits to get it and it took 4 days to get the results once it was taken.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

Ben

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #73 on: March 20, 2020, 12:10:35 PM »
But again that's skewed due to lack of testing.

That's certainly something to be considered. That kind of number getting thrown around will cause undue panic without consideration of the statistics.
"I'm a foolish old man that has been drawn into a wild goose chase by a harpy in trousers and a nincompoop."

Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #74 on: March 20, 2020, 12:21:50 PM »
For you It’s just the flu types......
https://vimeo.com/398334975
Video from an Italian hospital treating COVID patients.
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”