Author Topic: COVID19 predictions (Read 43000 times)

DittoHead · « **Reply #100 on:** March 21, 2020, 10:58:56 PM »

Quote from: RocketMan on March 21, 2020, 09:12:20 PM

But don't let actual hard data prevent you from getting your panic on.

A big reason there is panic is because we don't have that actual hard data.
We don't have the data South Korea has - testing, contact tracing, temperature logs when people go anywhere, surveillance.
We don't have the options China does (thankfully) to literally lock people in their apartments and have the military kill anyone who tries to flee the city.
Our testing rate is just getting caught up now, and those test results that are coming back today were taken a few days ago by people who got infected over a week ago.

Quote from: Dr. Anthony Fauci

when you’re dealing with an emerging infectious diseases outbreak, you are always behind where you think you are if you think that today reflects where you really are.

Once testing is up to speed, we can hopefully scale back a bit with the lock down.

Perd Hapley · « **Reply #101 on:** March 22, 2020, 01:27:49 AM »

Quote from: charby on March 21, 2020, 07:14:18 PM

One would think otherwise, with the antivaxx (and other) movements.

According to the link, confidence in science is slightly up, but confidence in medicine has gone way down.

I've been wondering if this whole thing would scotch anti-vax. I guess we'll see.

RocketMan · « **Reply #102 on:** March 22, 2020, 06:08:07 AM »

Go back and read the article again, Dittohead. The data is there, both historical and recent. The panic is not now and was not ever justified.

Jamisjockey · « **Reply #103 on:** March 22, 2020, 09:15:09 AM »

Rocketman, your link is full of *expletive deleted*it.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/top-videos-home/chicago-doctors-blunt-speech-about-covid-19-hits-home-across-the-country/2241880/?fbclid=IwAR2DLKKEEnftmAEdNNeRWBGyrnW3yY7OFzU04t71ZGnpg-IFNaMSavcaEUw

Quote

Dr. Emily Landon is the chief infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Chicago Medicine, who moments after Pritzker issued the ordinance to take effect Saturday evening, took to the stand with a 7-minute-long speech that went viral after striking a chord for many individuals.

Ron · « **Reply #104 on:** March 22, 2020, 10:24:33 AM »

The link may or may not offer accurate information.

The problem is statistics aren't reality. They are entirely dependent on thorough information. Almost every BS farce and propaganda push is backed up by statistics.

There are multiple competing stastistical models floating around out there.

Knowing this I'm more tolerant of the extreme measures designed to slow a potential pandemic nationwide.

There are yuuge downsides to what we are doing to the economy but if a large percentage of the population is dead or dieing the economy is going to crash anyway.

The people aren't for the economy, the economy is for the people.

fifth_column · « **Reply #105 on:** March 22, 2020, 11:15:59 AM »

Quote from: Ron on March 21, 2020, 08:49:40 PM

Very long read with predictions

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

The post is suspended. The link brings up a message: "This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules."

That might be because the website is on the side of truth and has suspended the story because it's not true, or because the website is fake news and has suspended the story because it is true, depending on what particular belief set one holds . . . .

RocketMan · « **Reply #106 on:** March 22, 2020, 01:01:54 PM »

Quote from: Jamisjockey on March 22, 2020, 09:15:09 AM

Rocketman, your link is full of *expletive deleted*it.

https://www.nbcchicago.com/top-videos-home/chicago-doctors-blunt-speech-about-covid-19-hits-home-across-the-country/2241880/?fbclid=IwAR2DLKKEEnftmAEdNNeRWBGyrnW3yY7OFzU04t71ZGnpg-IFNaMSavcaEUw

I'm not going to play dueling links with you, Jamis. You're too invested in the "We're all gonna die!" side of things. Nothing I put up will sway your opinion.

charby · « **Reply #107 on:** March 22, 2020, 01:59:29 PM »

Rand Paul tested positive for Covid-19. I wonder if he'll change his tune.

Hawkmoon · « **Reply #108 on:** March 22, 2020, 03:08:51 PM »

Quote from: charby on March 22, 2020, 01:59:29 PM

Rand Paul tested positive for Covid-19. I wonder if he'll change his tune.

What tune has he been singing?

Perd Hapley · « **Reply #109 on:** March 22, 2020, 03:17:56 PM »

Quote from: charby on March 22, 2020, 01:59:29 PM

Rand Paul tested positive for Covid-19. I wonder if he'll change his tune.

Rand Paul doesn't trust doctors?

charby · « **Reply #110 on:** March 22, 2020, 03:25:21 PM »

Quote from: Hawkmoon on March 22, 2020, 03:08:51 PM

What tune has he been singing?

IIRC he has been saying the Covid-19 threat is overblown.

RoadKingLarry · « **Reply #111 on:** March 22, 2020, 03:31:13 PM »

If it kills him then he'll probably think he was wrong. If he only has a week or so of feeling like *expletive deleted*it then he'll probably think he was right.
Let's check back in a couple of weeks and see how it turns out.

WLJ · « **Reply #112 on:** March 22, 2020, 04:02:23 PM »

Quote from: RoadKingLarry on March 22, 2020, 03:31:13 PM

If it kills him then he'll probably think he was wrong.

If it kills him he won't be thinking anything

Perd Hapley · « **Reply #113 on:** March 22, 2020, 06:35:33 PM »

I'm pretty sure that "this is an unwarranted panic" doesn't mean, "I could never get this disease."

HeroHog · « **Reply #114 on:** March 22, 2020, 07:04:12 PM »

Got a Robo-call from Louisiana's Governor this morning and this posted on govt sites:

Does the 21' rule/Tueller Drill apply to EVERYONE now?

RoadKingLarry · « **Reply #115 on:** March 22, 2020, 07:18:32 PM »

Quote from: HeroHog on March 22, 2020, 07:04:12 PM

Got a Robo-call from Louisiana's Governor this morning and this posted on govt sites:

Does the 21' rule/Tueller Drill apply to EVERYONE now?

Works for me.

Andiron · « **Reply #116 on:** March 22, 2020, 09:15:41 PM »

Quote from: charby on March 22, 2020, 03:25:21 PM

IIRC he has been saying the Covid-19 threat is overblown.

Thought that was Ron Paul?

tokugawa · « **Reply #117 on:** March 23, 2020, 01:57:49 AM »

They will increase testing, they will find a lot more people who have it or had it, none of which has anything to do with the ONLY thing that matters- how many will die, and how old or compromised are they? The death rate out of Italy, highest in the world, and All OLDER than 80, and most with other conditions.

The acknowledged death rate on this is going to drop like a stone, when they keep finding more non or mildly symptomatic people. My bet is it is way more prevalent in the population than they think, and far less serious.

"don't let a crisis go to waste". And if you don't have one, invent or exacerbate one.

charby · « **Reply #118 on:** March 23, 2020, 07:57:19 AM »

This will transfer over to our swine herds and kill a lot of pigs.

Nick1911 · « **Reply #119 on:** March 23, 2020, 09:15:37 AM »

Quote from: tokugawa on March 23, 2020, 01:57:49 AM

The death rate out of Italy, highest in the world, and All OLDER than 80, and most with other conditions.

This is demonstrably untrue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics

brimic · « **Reply #120 on:** March 23, 2020, 10:29:40 AM »

Quote from: Nick1911 on March 23, 2020, 09:15:37 AM

This is demonstrably untrue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics

Just eyeballing the numbers, it looks like there is something pretty close to a normal distribution curve between ages 50-90+... with the mean being somewhere above 80... I didn't crunch the numbers, just eyeballing.

MechAg94 · « **Reply #121 on:** March 23, 2020, 11:02:06 AM »

Quote from: charby on March 23, 2020, 07:57:19 AM

This will transfer over to our swine herds and kill a lot of pigs.

And the pigs will name it "Man flu".

tokugawa · « **Reply #122 on:** March 23, 2020, 12:56:09 PM »

Quote from: Nick1911 on March 23, 2020, 09:15:37 AM

This is demonstrably untrue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics

You are correct- 80 was the median. My mistake.

This English language PDF from the Italian covid 19 surveillance group lays out the infections, deaths, ages and co-morbidity- much less frightening than the MSM BS.
It is a short, and clear report.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

On a sample set of 3200 deaths-through March 20

1.1% of fatalities were under 50.

For the 9 deaths of people under 40, there was no data on 2, the other 7 had "serious" co-morbidities..

Of all deaths, 1.2% had no co-morbidities, 48% had three co-morbidities and over.

This is a disease that kills the old and compromised, like many other sicknesses. Our panic is totally unwarranted.

BlueStarLizzard · « **Reply #123 on:** March 23, 2020, 01:48:36 PM »

Quote from: tokugawa on March 23, 2020, 12:56:09 PM

You are correct- 80 was the median. My mistake.

This English language PDF from the Italian covid 19 surveillance group lays out the infections, deaths, ages and co-morbidity- much less frightening than the MSM BS.
It is a short, and clear report.

https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

On a sample set of 3200 deaths-through March 20

1.1% of fatalities were under 50.

For the 9 deaths of people under 40, there was no data on 2, the other 7 had "serious" co-morbidities..

Of all deaths, 1.2% had no co-morbidities, 48% had three co-morbidities and over.

This is a disease that kills the old and compromised, like many other sicknesses. Our panic is totally unwarranted.

Jeez, thanks for that reassurance.

DittoHead · « **Reply #124 on:** March 23, 2020, 01:52:13 PM »

Quote from: tokugawa on March 23, 2020, 12:56:09 PM

Our panic is totally unwarranted.

There has been a wide spectrum of responses, some of them rational (restricting travel from problem areas) and some not (hoarding toilet paper).
Individuals voluntarily making a minor adjustment such as working from home or delaying a vacation are very different than the government forcing closures or commandeering supplies.
Some of the responses make sense for certain areas like northern Italy where it got out of control, or NYC where the infection rates are soaring but maybe not for the rural midwest.
So what response is warranted? Are there any countries/governments you can point to as an example that have approached this correctly and we should copy?

News:

Author Topic: COVID19 predictions (Read 43000 times)