Author Topic: COVID19 predictions  (Read 42423 times)

charby

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #125 on: March 23, 2020, 01:55:39 PM »
NYC where the infection rates are soaring but maybe not for the rural midwest.

Rural Midwest doesn't have the medical facilities/staffing for even in a few hundred (in a county or small city) required hospitalization from Covid-19.

Shelter in place for 15-30 days makes a lot of sense to spread out the infection over time.
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tokugawa

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #126 on: March 23, 2020, 02:08:20 PM »
There has been a wide spectrum of responses, some of them rational (restricting travel from problem areas) and some not (hoarding toilet paper).
Individuals voluntarily making a minor adjustment such as working from home or delaying a vacation are very different than the government forcing closures or commandeering supplies.
Some of the responses make sense for certain areas like northern Italy where it got out of control, or NYC where the infection rates are soaring but maybe not for the rural midwest.
So what response is warranted? Are there any countries/governments you can point to as an example that have approached this correctly and we should copy?

 Israel.
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGl1YydafxY&feature=emb_logo

charby

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #127 on: March 23, 2020, 02:14:47 PM »
Israel.
 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGl1YydafxY&feature=emb_logo

and who is going to take of grandma and grandpa in assistive living? Not like the staff there are 70 and 80 years old.

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DittoHead

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #128 on: March 23, 2020, 02:27:14 PM »
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to dramatically increase restrictions on movement and has drafted a resolution to allow no travel except for work, food, medicines and essentials to help stop the spread of coronavirus.
...
As this new round of restrictions rolls out, the country will introduce a massive aid program for self-employed individuals and small businesses. The plan is scheduled to be ready on Tuesday.
...
“We will gradually move toward imposing a lockdown, hundreds of thousands of additional people will be required not to go to work."
Doesn't sound much different from what's happening here. Maybe they still have TP though  =|
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tokugawa

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #129 on: March 23, 2020, 04:28:01 PM »
The thing about shutting all this stuff down is this.  Even if, and that is a big if, it works,
Just exactly what do they think is going to happen when they open things up again?
All it takes is one case and the whole cycle starts again.

 They are killing small business in this country.
 They are doing what China could not quite do by themselves.
 If China was paying our leaders to destroy us, they could not do better.

 We need to get immunity, and the only way to do that is to develop a vaccine , or to get sick and recover.  Yes some people will die. We die every day. Lot's of us, from all sorts of reasons. Lot's of us will die from lost jobs too.
 
 Do you think the "authorities" know what they are doing?  The "shoulder thing that goes up" folks?  The Dunning -Kruger effect is not just for reporters. The politicians are idiots too. The only real skill most of them have ever been able to muster is manipulation, obfuscation and outright lying.

 The media are doing with this exactly what they do with the "gun violence epidemic", and the gov and corporations are going along with it just like Dicks sporting goods.
 We are being played for fools.

  Go read this. Really.  takes five minutes.

 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
 
 

brimic

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #130 on: March 23, 2020, 04:49:06 PM »
The thing about shutting all this stuff down is this.  Even if, and that is a big if, it works,
Just exactly what do they think is going to happen when they open things up again?
All it takes is one case and the whole cycle starts again.

 They are killing small business in this country.
 They are doing what China could not quite do by themselves.
 If China was paying our leaders to destroy us, they could not do better.

 We need to get immunity, and the only way to do that is to develop a vaccine , or to get sick and recover.  Yes some people will die. We die every day. Lot's of us, from all sorts of reasons. Lot's of us will die from lost jobs too.
 
 Do you think the "authorities" know what they are doing?  The "shoulder thing that goes up" folks?  The Dunning -Kruger effect is not just for reporters. The politicians are idiots too. The only real skill most of them have ever been able to muster is manipulation, obfuscation and outright lying.

 The media are doing with this exactly what they do with the "gun violence epidemic", and the gov and corporations are going along with it just like Dicks sporting goods.
 We are being played for fools.

  Go read this. Really.  takes five minutes.

 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
 
 

So which 60+ year olds that you know of would you be willing to sacrifice to save a small business?
Realize also, that Italy isn't treating people over 60, so that the hospital beds go to younger people- typically people who are in the professional prime of their lives.
It is entirely possible to not only sacrifice a large chunk of people over 60, but also between 0-60, if enough people get sick at the same time.
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tokugawa

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #131 on: March 23, 2020, 06:59:45 PM »
So which 60+ year olds that you know of would you be willing to sacrifice to save a small business?
Realize also, that Italy isn't treating people over 60, so that the hospital beds go to younger people- typically people who are in the professional prime of their lives.
It is entirely possible to not only sacrifice a large chunk of people over 60, but also between 0-60, if enough people get sick at the same time.

The Italian data is pretty clear- only about 1% of people without other problems die from this. The vast majority have several other medical issues and are also over sixty, with most being over seventy.

 Look, this is pretty simple- isolate the most vulnerable, and let the rest go about their business.  There is no free lunch- some will get infected, and a tiny minority of those will die. End of story.

 But killing an economy will devastate this country in ways that no one seems to be even willing to discuss. And the MSM, and the politicians are jumping all over themselves to do it. It has a huge cost. Economic. social, and political. Ask yourself why THIS TIME it is so much worse- I maintain the virus is not the reason for the reaction, but an excuse for it.

 You know how *expletive deleted*ing bad the panic is? My trucking company just emailed me and said some deliveries are not being accepted because virus.  Extrapolate that for a bit and see where it leads.

 How long do you think we can stay locked in a box, and have a country ?
 
 

RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #132 on: March 23, 2020, 07:13:17 PM »
Quote
How long do you think we can stay locked in a box, and have a country ?

[Pelosi]Just as long as it takes to *expletive deleted*ck over Trump's shot at re-election. [/Pelosi]
If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen.

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RocketMan

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #133 on: March 23, 2020, 07:14:16 PM »
The Italian data is pretty clear- only about 1% of people without other problems die from this. The vast majority have several other medical issues and are also over sixty, with most being over seventy.

 Look, this is pretty simple- isolate the most vulnerable, and let the rest go about their business.  There is no free lunch- some will get infected, and a tiny minority of those will die. End of story.

 But killing an economy will devastate this country in ways that no one seems to be even willing to discuss. And the MSM, and the politicians are jumping all over themselves to do it. It has a huge cost. Economic. social, and political. Ask yourself why THIS TIME it is so much worse- I maintain the virus is not the reason for the reaction, but an excuse for it.

 You know how *expletive deleted*ing bad the panic is? My trucking company just emailed me and said some deliveries are not being accepted because virus.  Extrapolate that for a bit and see where it leads.

 How long do you think we can stay locked in a box, and have a country ?

If our governmental reactions (at all levels) to CV are to make any sense at all, then we had damn well better react the same way, shut down the entire f-ing country and blow our economy to sh-t, each and every flu season.  And for the common cold season.  And several other common illnesses that come to mind.
Our damn leaders have lost their collective minds, and the MSM has been cheering them on with every medium at their disposal.
Yeah, I'm pissed off.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #134 on: March 23, 2020, 07:42:38 PM »
Some of you  need to watch some of the videos from the hospitals in Italy and get back to us.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 05:47:44 AM by Jamisjockey »
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DittoHead

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #135 on: March 23, 2020, 07:45:47 PM »
Ask yourself why THIS TIME it is so much worse- I maintain the virus is not the reason for the reaction, but an excuse for it.

Do you believe all the others countries that shut down are in on this, just to screw over Trump or something? If anyone would be willing to let people die to save their economy it would probably be China,  yet they shut down too.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

charby

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #136 on: March 23, 2020, 07:50:04 PM »
watch some of the videos from the hospitals in Italy and get back to us.


600 deaths for just today reported in Italy
« Last Edit: March 24, 2020, 05:48:08 AM by Jamisjockey »
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AZRedhawk44

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #137 on: March 23, 2020, 08:04:32 PM »
I expect to see some Statist legislation, soon, that socializes immunizations.  Free immunizations for all.

And makes it a criminal matter to refuse or avoid them.

Someone is going to push the button on that controversy.

Hate all you want on anti-vaxxers, but I agree with them on one point:  I own my body.  You may not penetrate my skin without my permission.
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RocketMan

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #138 on: March 23, 2020, 08:06:19 PM »
Yes, Italy is having a hard time of it, but there are several factors unique to them that are behind their problems.  Comparing Italy to the USA and assuming we're going to have the same problems is apples and oranges.  I'm surprised you haven't figured that out with all your research, Jamis.

And DittoHead, very simply the media in other countries are perfectly capable of blowing things out of proportion just as ours is. They want to increase their media ratings and sell TV ads and newspapers just like our crappy MSM does in this country.  I don't know why you keep injecting Trump into what they are doing.

ETA:  And "diphit hoaxers".  Really?  Granted, you are an admin, but the name calling is inappropriate.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

DittoHead

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #139 on: March 23, 2020, 08:13:23 PM »
I don't know why you keep injecting Trump into what they are doing.
Are you kidding?
Anything to defeat GOP election hopes in November.
[Pelosi]Just as long as it takes to *expletive deleted*ck over Trump's shot at re-election. [/Pelosi]
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

Andiron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #140 on: March 23, 2020, 08:25:31 PM »

ETA:  And "diphit hoaxers".  Really?  Granted, you are an admin, but the name calling is inappropriate.

Some animals are absolutely more equal than others  ;/,  even if I agree with Jamis on the Kung Flu thing.
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RocketMan

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #141 on: March 23, 2020, 08:34:41 PM »
Are you kidding?

Yes, that's what's happening in this country.  The CV provided the DNC and their media arm a golden opportunity to tank the economy, and they can now beat Trump over the head with it in November.  They have tried and failed to talk us into a recession more than once in the last couple of years, but have finally succeeded this time.
Other countries and their reactions to the CV don't have a thing to do with Trump.  For the most part, they don't give a rat's rear end if he sinks or swims come November.  Their various media are perfectly capable of making fools of themselves without Trumps's help.  Their media wants clicks and to sell ads and increase their ratings, too.  It's called making money.  That's why I don't understand why you keep making that comparison.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

RocketMan

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #142 on: March 23, 2020, 08:43:18 PM »
Some animals are absolutely more equal than others  ;/,  even if I agree with Jamis on the Kung Flu thing.

To clarify, yes I do believe CV is a serious illness, especially for those with compromised immune systems.  But when all of the CV hysteria is over we will come to realize that there were far fewer infections and far fewer deaths from CV than there are in a typical flu season.  This will be true in most countries.
The exception to this may be Italy as there are some unique factors in play there that are exacerbating their problems with CV.  We will have to wait and see after this is over, and whether they can gather enough accurate information, to know for sure if CV beats out a typical flu season for them.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Andiron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #143 on: March 23, 2020, 08:45:06 PM »
To clarify, yes I do believe CV is a serious illness, especially for those with compromised immune systems.  But when all of the CV hysteria is over we will come to realize that there were far fewer infections and far fewer deaths from CV than there are in a typical flu season.  This will be true in most countries.
The exception to this may be Italy as there are some unique factors in play there that are exacerbating their problems with CV.  We will have to wait and see after this is over, and whether they can gather enough accurate information, to know for sure if CV beats out a typical flu season for them.

Agreed,  we'll see eventually.

The mod double standards are still chicken *expletive deleted*it.
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There is no fixing stupid. But, you can line it up in front of a wall and offer it a last smoke.

There is no such thing as a "transgender" person.  Only mental illness that should be discouraged.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #144 on: March 23, 2020, 09:42:25 PM »
To clarify, yes I do believe CV is a serious illness, especially for those with compromised immune systems.  But when all of the CV hysteria is over we will come to realize that there were far fewer infections and far fewer deaths from CV than there are in a typical flu season.  This will be true in most countries.
The exception to this may be Italy as there are some unique factors in play there that are exacerbating their problems with CV.  We will have to wait and see after this is over, and whether they can gather enough accurate information, to know for sure if CV beats out a typical flu season for them.

US flu deaths for the 19-20 season have topped 23,000.
As far as getting accurate info, never gonna happen. There will be absolutely no way to know how many people actually had COVID-19 to compare with how many cases proved fatal.
Yes I agree that it is a nasty bug but not near nasty enough to destroy the worlds economy over.
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Nick1911

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #145 on: March 23, 2020, 09:53:07 PM »
Gentleman from BOTH viewpoints:

Let's keep this civil.  This is a hot issue which is having a large personal impact on all of us.  However, we are working with incomplete information about something which is new.  We're all getting various bits of information and trying to make sense of them.  Of course, we're going to come to different conclusions.

Attack the argument if you wish, but respect the other person.  We're better then that.

DittoHead

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #146 on: March 23, 2020, 09:58:37 PM »
Their media wants clicks and to sell ads and increase their ratings, too.  It's called making money.  That's why I don't understand why you keep making that comparison.
Why are all those governments listening to them? At least here you could (not convincingly) claim the deep state at the CDC is giving out bad advice too. It takes more than overzealous media to get some of these governments to do this to their economies. Some of these places have state run media - they're not doing this just for ad $$.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

tokugawa

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #147 on: March 23, 2020, 10:13:32 PM »
You diphit hoaxers need to watch some of the videos from the hospitals in Italy and get back to us.


 I have. They are old people, mostly sick already, most with multiple illnesses, who got one that pushed them over the edge. Happens every year when the flu goes through a nursing home.

 Instead of reacting emotionally to the meadia hype, why don't you read what the Italian Coronavirus surveillance group said about it. It's clear as day, English even.
 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
 

BobR

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #148 on: March 23, 2020, 10:44:40 PM »
While you are comparing Italy and the US let's compare Nurse to Patient ratio. It has been proven time and time again that inadequate nursing care will cause a higher mortality. The last I saw a study about EU staffing ratios Italy was one of the worst at abot 8.5-9 patients per nurse. With a workload like that things are missed and there is too much illness to go around. It's the Nurses that keep you alive in the middle of the night so the next time your local Nurse's Union is in negotiations with the Hospital  machine go out and support them. They are the ones who will keep you alive.


https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jan.13066

https://international.commonwealthfund.org/countries/italy/

While not Italy the problem is universal.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6033178/

Italy was rapidly overwhelmed with patients they could not care for and got behind the curve quickly and with the rapid growth of the disease they were screwed.

Thank your Nurse, Wash yer Hands!!

bob

Nick1911

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #149 on: March 23, 2020, 11:21:12 PM »
I have. They are old people, mostly sick already, most with multiple illnesses, who got one that pushed them over the edge. Happens every year when the flu goes through a nursing home.

 Instead of reacting emotionally to the meadia hype, why don't you read what the Italian Coronavirus surveillance group said about it. It's clear as day, English even.
 https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

Okay, so old people with comorbidities are very very heavily represented in the 481 deaths in this study.  Cool, lets run with that.

Is the US population more, or less healthy the Italians?  Various sources suggest we are less healthy overall. [1].  But, whatever, lets say it's apples to apples.  Lets say we're just as healthy as the Italians.

Also on that site you keep linking to, is this helpful infographic: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_21marzo%20ENG.pdf  It's got CFR numbers listed per age group.

So lets say this is a media frenzy false flag hoax.  If we let this just rip, and say 50% of the US population got COVID19 before herd immunity caused it to peter out (optimistic), based on this information, what would that look like?  I'm going to be a little lazy here and lump everyone 80+ together at the 80 year old CFR.

Age group 30-39: 43.69 million Americans  * 50% infection rate * 0.3% CFR = 70k dead.
Age group 40-49: 40.46 million Americans  * 50% infection rate * 0.5% CFR = 100k dead.
Age group 50-59: 42.83 million Americans  * 50% infection rate * 1.2% CFR = 250k dead.
Age group 60-69: 37.41 million Americans  * 50% infection rate * 4.5% CFR = 800k dead.
Age group 70-79: 22.66 million Americans  * 50% infection rate * 14% CFR = 1.5m dead.
Age group 80+: 12.68 million Americans  * 50% infection rate * 21.3% CFR = 1.3m dead.

So 4 million dead Americans.