Author Topic: COVID19 predictions  (Read 42413 times)

HankB

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #175 on: March 26, 2020, 02:18:10 PM »
Not even China could hide 15 million deaths.
Are you sure about that?

It was several decades before it became generally accepted that Mao murdered more people than Hitler and Stalin combined. To this day, there is still NO accurate accounting from the current Chinese leadership.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #176 on: March 26, 2020, 07:46:19 PM »
Are you sure about that?

It was several decades before it became generally accepted that Mao murdered more people than Hitler and Stalin combined. To this day, there is still NO accurate accounting from the current Chinese leadership.

I wouldn't put it past them, don't get me wrong.  With how interconnected the world is, it would be pretty hard to pull off.
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Ron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #177 on: March 26, 2020, 08:01:42 PM »
There is an immense amount of conflicting information out there.

We're hunkering down and keeping to ourselves still. Went to the local grocery (not a chain) today and they were well stocked, not busy.

Wiped everything down when we got home.

Playing it safe for now as I'm in a major metro area, Chicagoland.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 08:20:19 PM by Ron »
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #178 on: March 28, 2020, 08:16:15 AM »
100k cases as of yesterday.

We're definitely headed for over 200k, maybe more.

The cities that are hotzones are going to be hellholes for a little while.  Well, Chicago was already a hellhole....
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WLJ

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #179 on: March 28, 2020, 09:55:01 AM »
I wouldn't put it past them, don't get me wrong.  With how interconnected the world is, it would be pretty hard to pull off.

Honestly with the way the MSM has been acting lately seemingly doing everything they can to make us look bad and our enemies look good it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they would try to bury or at the very least distort it. I've become quite cynical when it comes to the MSM and their motives.
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 11:54:27 AM by WLJ »
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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #180 on: March 28, 2020, 11:52:25 AM »
I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.
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cordex

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #181 on: March 28, 2020, 12:04:00 PM »
I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.
I’m guessing way less than that. I don’t have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.

In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing.  The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #182 on: March 28, 2020, 12:05:39 PM »
I’m guessing way less than that. I don’t have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.

In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing.  The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.

I hope you're right, but we've also got a long way to go.
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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #183 on: March 28, 2020, 12:16:30 PM »
I hope you're right, but we've also got a long way to go.

As sadistic as this sounds, we're just getting started and it's been a fustercluck from the start, the all ready loaded medical/hospital system is going to crash hard, plus we simply don't have enough medical aids/nurses/drs nationwide for this.

Going to be like Italy where old people are just let to die and alone because of no visitors.
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freakazoid

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #184 on: March 28, 2020, 10:22:54 PM »
How many people were on the Disney Cruise ship? All mingling together, eating buffet, dancing, etc. while it was spreading. And only how many managed to get sick, and how many died? Yeah, it's a nothing burger just like all the other OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE viruses that have popped up that the news would talk about constantly before we had the internet to really spread out constant updates. Imagine if the media came out with a BREAKING NEWS!! alert with every single time someone died from the flu and kept a number ticker scrolling across the bottom with the number of infected for the year...
Where's all of Japan's massive deaths from this new virus of the decade? The majority of their tourism is from China. Their population is largely older people. They have a very efficient mass transit system to allow people to travel from one place to another.
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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #185 on: March 29, 2020, 12:21:26 AM »
As sadistic as this sounds, we're just getting started and it's been a fustercluck from the start, the all ready loaded medical/hospital system is going to crash hard, plus we simply don't have enough medical aids/nurses/drs nationwide for this.

Going to be like Italy where old people are just let to die and alone because of no visitors.

Can one of the other admins change his screen name to "Little Ray of *expletive deleted*ing Sunshine"

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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #186 on: March 29, 2020, 07:49:11 AM »
I’m guessing way less than that. I don’t have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.

In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing.  The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.

I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high.  I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations.  NY, LA primarily.

Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.
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cordex

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #187 on: March 29, 2020, 07:52:54 AM »
I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high.  I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations.  NY, LA primarily.

Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.
I thought you were in the 2-3 million camp.

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #188 on: March 29, 2020, 08:18:03 AM »
The local major hospital system is furloughing doctors and nurses...our healthcare system is run by idiots

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #189 on: March 29, 2020, 08:23:46 AM »
I thought you were in the 2-3 million camp.

I supported that number if the government kept sitting on it's hands.  My stand has been "do something or this is how bad it'll be"


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Nick1911

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #190 on: March 29, 2020, 08:52:58 AM »
I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high.  I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations.  NY, LA primarily.

Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.

If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine), we would likely end up at 20-30kk or so dead.

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #191 on: March 29, 2020, 08:57:43 AM »
The local major hospital system is furloughing doctors and nurses...our healthcare system is run by idiots

As a general rule, hospitals and clinics are cancelling routine appointments, surgeries and anything that does not absolutely need to be in the hospital.  This is to free up capacity for a COVID surge and to reduce the possibility of other patients and staff being infected.   Accordingly, the non-COVID patient census is dropping like a rock, and providers and staff are sitting around with nothing to do and are being furloughed.  You can't put a surgeon or a pediatrics nurse on duty taking care of ICU or COVID patients; they don't know what they are doing.  Who is being hired are ICU providers and nurses, and respiratory therapists.  Right now, if you want to do a temp gig as an ICU nurse in a NYC hospital, the temp agencies are offering you $ 5000/week.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 10:31:37 AM by MillCreek »
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Ron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #192 on: March 29, 2020, 09:00:13 AM »
I predict trust in the media and government will not recover as fast the nation does from the China Virus.

Unfortunately we'll never know whether we have been gaslighted or whether we we've been saved from certain death.

Meanwhile it looks like we have become a totalitarian Socialistic "democracy" without a vote cast or shot fired.

Damn they're good.
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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #193 on: March 29, 2020, 09:11:43 AM »

Unfortunately we'll never know whether we have been gaslighted or whether we we've been saved from certain death.

Sadly, this is kinda where I am. I still am leaning to the "more people are dying from the flu so why don't we quarantine from DEC-APR every year?" side, but between governments and media, I really don't know if we're overreacting or saving modern society. Right now I'm thinking reaction is necessary, but that we are way overreacting. I still believe the panic is worse than the disease.
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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #194 on: March 29, 2020, 09:15:17 AM »
Sadly, this is kinda where I am. I still am leaning to the "more people are dying from the flu so why don't we quarantine from DEC-APR every year?" side, but between governments and media, I really don't know if we're overreacting or saving modern society. Right now I'm thinking reaction is necessary, but that we are way overreacting. I still believe the panic is worse than the disease.

What's the daily flu death rate?  Pretty sure Corona is now the number one daily fatal communicable disease in the world.

Italy's total case count has slowed, but their death rate is still going up.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #195 on: March 29, 2020, 09:16:11 AM »
If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine), we would likely end up at 20-30kk or so dead.

It wouldn't shock me if it's higher.  Italy may have reached case peak, but their fatality rate is still going up.  Scary *expletive deleted*it.
JD

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #196 on: March 29, 2020, 09:19:39 AM »
As a general rule, hospitals and clinics are cancelling routine appointments, surgeries and anything that does not absolutely need to be in the hospital.  This is to free up capacity for a COVID surge and to reduce the possibility of other patients being infected.   Accordingly, the non-COVID patient census is dropping like a rock, and providers and staff are sitting around with nothing to do and are being furloughed.  You can't put a surgeon or a pediatrics nurse on duty taking care of ICU or COVID patients; they don't know what they are doing.  Who is being hired are ICU providers and nurses, and respiratory therapists.  Right now, if you want to do a temp gig as an ICU nurse in a NYC hospital, the temp agencies are offering you $ 5000/week.

Wow. That's something new I learned. I mean, some people are still getting sick from other stuff. Would it be physically or fiscally impractical to do something like trailers or other temporary buildings for routine and/or non-virus stuff? People still get appendicitis and broken arms and stuff, yeah?
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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #197 on: March 29, 2020, 09:24:59 AM »
If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine), we would likely end up at 20-30kk or so dead.

How the *expletive deleted*ck do you get that math?

Right now, as of 0910EST March 29th, there have been 124,686 cases in the US.  Of those, 2,191 have died, and 2,612 have recovered. So if new infections dropped to zero today, we'd have 119,883 cases left to have an outcome.  You think this is suddenly going to jump to a 20% (taking the median of your range) mortality rate?  That argument is retarded.  Not going to happen.

That said it's hard to estimate where we are in the infection curve because our testing protocols are changing so rapidly.  I suspect, with no real evidence, that we are closer to the top of actual infections then the "confirmed cases" curve would imply.  If we keep it around 500,000 confirmed cases across the US, our hospital network will be able to mostly handle it, and we will be looking at 2-2.5% mortality.  Which is still a lot of people.  If we exceed health care capacity, we could see that mortality nudge into 4-6%.  Which is a ton of people and on a par with the raw numbers that Jamis and Nick are tossing about.

I don't think we will see the almost 11% mortality Italy has because that hospital collapse required an acceleration rate of cases we don't have, and I think just won't get due to sheer landmass and population.  NYC, LA, and the Puget Sound area may emulate it, but the country won't as a whole.

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #198 on: March 29, 2020, 09:46:46 AM »
How the *expletive deleted*ck do you get that math?

Right now, as of 0910EST March 29th, there have been 124,686 cases in the US.  Of those, 2,191 have died, and 2,612 have recovered. So if new infections dropped to zero today, we'd have 119,883 cases left to have an outcome.  You think this is suddenly going to jump to a 20% (taking the median of your range) mortality rate?  That argument is retarded.  Not going to happen.

That said it's hard to estimate where we are in the infection curve because our testing protocols are changing so rapidly.  I suspect, with no real evidence, that we are closer to the top of actual infections then the "confirmed cases" curve would imply.  If we keep it around 500,000 confirmed cases across the US, our hospital network will be able to mostly handle it, and we will be looking at 2-2.5% mortality.  Which is still a lot of people.  If we exceed health care capacity, we could see that mortality nudge into 4-6%.  Which is a ton of people and on a par with the raw numbers that Jamis and Nick are tossing about.

I don't think we will see the almost 11% mortality Italy has because that hospital collapse required an acceleration rate of cases we don't have, and I think just won't get due to sheer landmass and population.  NYC, LA, and the Puget Sound area may emulate it, but the country won't as a whole.

I see that you're emotionally invested in this argument.  Which is fine, people are dying, the economy is crashing, and everyone daily lives are pretty upset.

Since you asked, I will explain "How the *expletive deleted*ck I got that math."

US deaths are following an exponential trend-line with an R2 of 0.946.   Which means the model is really close.

Onset of symptoms to death is averaging about 8 days.  Based on the exponential trend-line, in 8 days we can expect 11,700 dead americans.  So, I guess I was off by two days in my estimate.  10 days from now, 20k dead on the current trend.

dogmush

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #199 on: March 29, 2020, 10:20:41 AM »
That math requires continued growth of infections.  You postulated that "If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine)" we'd still get 20k.  The current trend for deaths would not continue if the current trend of infections doesn't continue.

You can't go flat on new infections and postulate the death rate will stay exponential.  That's not how math works.