Author Topic: COVID19 predictions  (Read 42424 times)

Nick1911

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #200 on: March 29, 2020, 10:26:51 AM »
That math requires continued growth of infections.  You postulated that "If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine)" we'd still get 20k.  The current trend for deaths would not continue if the current trend of infections doesn't continue.

You can't go flat on new infections and postulate the death rate will stay exponential.  That's not how math works.

It turns out, that's how math works!

There are people who feel fine today, who were infected this morning, who will die in (on average) 8 days from today.  Even with no new infections, there are people walking around today, who don't know they have covid19, are not diagnosed, and who will be dead in a week.

MillCreek

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #201 on: March 29, 2020, 10:30:53 AM »
Wow. That's something new I learned. I mean, some people are still getting sick from other stuff. Would it be physically or fiscally impractical to do something like trailers or other temporary buildings for routine and/or non-virus stuff? People still get appendicitis and broken arms and stuff, yeah?

This is pretty much the thinking behind the deployment of the Navy hospital ships to NYC and LA and the deployment of Army field hospitals to various places: provide the non-COVID care in a temporary setting.  Your typical hospital is still seeing emergencies, OB and urgent medical issues as space and staff are available. But most of them don't have the money or resources to set up temporary care facilities in a field-type setting.

An Army field hospital from Tennessee is setting up in downtown Seattle at the events center of the football stadium.  I was watching the CO give an interview on the local TV, and he said they will be set up to do everything from trauma surgery to broken bones to diabetes.  He didn't say anything about OB or ICU beds.  My second wife, the chief corpsman, was one of the leading CPOs for a field hospital out of San Diego, and she said it was very much geared toward trauma and urgent care, which makes sense in the military field setting.  

My niece just signed up a few months back with the Army Reserve, and was direct commission as a first lieutenant as a CRNA.  She works for the University of Pittsburgh medical center, and she says as one of the most junior anesthesiology personnel, she has essentially been furloughed, and she actually hopes she will be called up and sent somewhere.  The Army is very big on CRNAs.
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

freakazoid

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #202 on: March 29, 2020, 10:41:16 AM »
What's the daily flu death rate?  Pretty sure Corona is now the number one daily fatal communicable disease in the world.

Italy's total case count has slowed, but their death rate is still going up.

According to the CDC, in the past 10 years in the US alone anywhere from about 33 a day up to about 167, or about 1 every 44 minutes down to 1 every 9 minutes. 2011 was exceptionally low and 2018 looks like it is exceptionally high.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Perhaps for everyone's safety we should keep everyone locked up in their house to stop the spread of the flu. If not, who are we willing to sacrifice to the flu just for a little freedom?
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Ron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #203 on: March 29, 2020, 10:44:24 AM »
It turns out, that's how math works!

There are people who feel fine today, who were infected this morning, who will die in (on average) 8 days from today.  Even with no new infections, there are people walking around today, who don't know they have covid19, are not diagnosed, and who will be dead in a week.

Unless there is an input that was missed, then your math going forward is all trash.

Probabilities have no ontology, ie the model is not reality.

Not only do I hope you're wrong there is always a probability you are 😉



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lee n. field

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #204 on: March 29, 2020, 10:45:30 AM »
As a general rule, hospitals and clinics are cancelling routine appointments, surgeries and anything that does not absolutely need to be in the hospital.  This is to free up capacity for a COVID surge and to reduce the possibility of other patients and staff being infected.   Accordingly, the non-COVID patient census is dropping like a rock, and providers and staff are sitting around with nothing to do and are being furloughed.  You can't put a surgeon or a pediatrics nurse on duty taking care of ICU or COVID patients; they don't know what they are doing.  Who is being hired are ICU providers and nurses, and respiratory therapists.  Right now, if you want to do a temp gig as an ICU nurse in a NYC hospital, the temp agencies are offering you $ 5000/week.

Will pass that on to my brother, who is in fact an ICU nurse.

---edit to add---

Bro sez:

Quote
Yup. Pretty much same here. Lots of staff furloughed. Lots of information at cross purposes, too. I got an email from the big boss, saying we should stay home if sick. I read an article in the RR Star, some bigwig at Mercy Health tells the reporter that employees with cold symptoms are to stay home. So I email my boss. Hey boss, I sez, I got a sore throat that won't go away, come into work? She sez, you don't got a fever, you come into work.

« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 04:39:47 PM by lee n. field »
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Nick1911

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #205 on: March 29, 2020, 10:55:21 AM »
Unless there is an input that was missed, then your math going forward is all trash.

Probabilities have no ontology, ie the model is not reality.

Not only do I hope you're wrong there is always a probability you are 😉

Sure.  Models are just predictions about the future.  There's a chance it will be totally wrong.  We can't know everything that's going to happen, just make predictions based on what has happened in the past.

I hope I'm totally wrong too.   =|

Hawkmoon

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #206 on: March 29, 2020, 12:30:16 PM »
The local major hospital system is furloughing doctors and nurses...our healthcare system is run by idiots


 ??? That makes no sense. Around here, the .gov is begging retired doctors and nurses to report for duty, and they've waived the requirement for their licenses to be current. We're also allowing doctors and nurses from other states to work here without being licensed in the state.
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MillCreek

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #207 on: March 29, 2020, 01:40:59 PM »
??? That makes no sense. Around here, the .gov is begging retired doctors and nurses to report for duty, and they've waived the requirement for their licenses to be current. We're also allowing doctors and nurses from other states to work here without being licensed in the state.

You see here the difference between urban and rural healthcare.  Even in the best of times, the willingness and enthusiasm of healthcare providers and staff to move from the big city to East Moosejaw is limited.  So in some urban areas, we have an oversupply of providers and staff vs. current patient needs but I suspect the majority of them are not going to uproot to work in rural areas, either for pay or volunteer.  The data over the past few decades shows that so far, they have not.
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

BlueStarLizzard

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #208 on: March 29, 2020, 01:41:30 PM »
??? That makes no sense. Around here, the .gov is begging retired doctors and nurses to report for duty, and they've waived the requirement for their licenses to be current. We're also allowing doctors and nurses from other states to work here without being licensed in the state.

Yeah, the ones in the right fields. I can promise you they aren't calling on the ophthalmologists, dermatologists and many other specialties that aren't relevant. They'll keep a few oncologists and endocrinologists and such around to deal with the high risk patients in their specialty. But everyone else, other than the bare bones they need to deal with standard run emergencies, isn't helpful and doesn't need to be there.

And yes, they're still dealing with stuff that will cause immediate imminent death, like acute appendicitis. It's stuff like what I had that's getting pushed back. The things that will kill you eventually, but not tomorrow, that's getting postponed.


Fixed for whatever.  ;/
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 02:17:49 PM by BlueStarLizzard »
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BobR

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #209 on: March 29, 2020, 01:44:27 PM »

And yes, they're still dealing with stuff that will cause immediate death, like acute appendicitis. It's stuff like what I had that's getting pushed back. The things that will kill you eventually, but not tomorrow, that's getting postponed.

Maybe not immediate but a lingering painful death, it could take a while. In reality if something causes immediate death there isn't much need for medical care. ;)

But I knew what you meant.  =)

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MillCreek

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #210 on: March 29, 2020, 04:55:25 PM »
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MillCreek
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Quote from: Angel Eyes on August 09, 2018, 01:56:15 AM
You are one lousy risk manager.

Kingcreek

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #211 on: March 29, 2020, 05:28:28 PM »
I talked to a podiatrist last week that normally does surgery 1-2 days per week. He said the hospital cancelled all until further notice. He is seeing a few patients in his clinic but a fraction of his usual.
My friends wife is an RN in a pediatric allergy clinic and they are down to 2 days per week. The hospital system that sucked them in a couple years ago wants everyone to be a universal soldier and accept transfer where needed. She said no. She hasn’t worked in hospital for 20 years and she said she’ll retire before she goes into acute care.
What we have here is failure to communicate.

RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #212 on: March 29, 2020, 05:41:20 PM »
An article about hospitals cancelling surgeries and the like for COVID:

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/when-surgeries-are-canceled-hospitals-triage-medical-care-to-make-room-for-coronavirus-patients/

They shut down all elective surgery several weeks ago locally. When I was discussing my right shoulder rotator cuff repair with my orthopedic surgeon (left shoulder surgery was in January) he wasn't too happy with them being shut down with nothing local and at the time only one or two in a neighboring county.

My wife is still undergoing treatment 3 times a week with a wound care specialist and while they have modified their patient contact procedures they are still treating patients. Her Breast Dr is setting up everyone she can on Tele-health visits.

As of right now I'm still scheduled for PT twice a week.
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Ron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #213 on: March 29, 2020, 07:02:06 PM »
Not to be a dick but I couldn't care less about the "poor" medical professionals.

The restaurant industry, retail and thousands of other small businesses have been flattened.

These owners and their employees don't have summer homes, fat (even still) 401k's or much if any savings.

The libertarians and their snarky comments about markets and individual responsibility can go *expletive deleted*ck themselves.
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Fly320s

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #214 on: March 29, 2020, 07:33:44 PM »
Not to be a dick but I couldn't care less about the "poor" medical professionals.

The restaurant industry, retail and thousands of other small businesses have been flattened.

These owners and their employees don't have summer homes, fat (even still) 401k's or much if any savings.

The libertarians and their snarky comments about markets and individual responsibility can go *expletive deleted*ck themselves.

I'm a libertarian, to a degree, so thank you for your kind thoughts.

Yes, everyone should have enough money in savings to cover a few months of bills, but that is just not possible for evert person.  Still, that should be the goal.  The problem as I see it in this case is not a lack of savings, but a huge, widespread, government-mandated shutdown of damn near everyone and everything.  Since FedGov required this shutdown, FedGov should be on the hook for the bailout, but this isn't the time to just throw money at anyone and everyone.
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BobR

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #215 on: March 29, 2020, 08:39:58 PM »
Not to be a dick but I couldn't care less about the "poor" medical professionals.

The restaurant industry, retail and thousands of other small businesses have been flattened.

These owners and their employees don't have summer homes, fat (even still) 401k's or much if any savings.

The libertarians and their snarky comments about markets and individual responsibility can go *expletive deleted*ck themselves.

Hmmm, you must be thinking a small subset of "medical professionals". There is a lot more to medical professionals than MDs and the like. I can rattle off any number of medical professionals who don't have what you say, myself included, yet they show up to work every day knowing full well the danger that exists for them due to lack of PPE among other things.

bob

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #216 on: March 29, 2020, 10:14:36 PM »
Unless there is an input that was missed, then your math going forward is all trash.

Probabilities have no ontology, ie the model is not reality.

Not only do I hope you're wrong there is always a probability you are 😉


I *think* what he is saying is there are a week's worth of people who are infected but not actually sick yet, and some of them will die.  Some number were infected last Monday.  More were infected on Tuesday, still more on Wednesday, etc, because the infection rate was still exponential then. 

That's where you get the growth in casualties with magically no more new infections before it rapidly tapers off.
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Hawkmoon

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #217 on: March 29, 2020, 10:26:44 PM »
A couple of days ago my town's mayor sent out a telephonic robo call, asking everyone to self-isolate as much as possible. She said the town had three confirmed cases (mercifully, as of today it's still three) but the part that shocked me was that she said the experts estimate that for every confirmed case there are 100 undiagnosed cases. That surprised me. I had thought that the ratio was maybe 10:1. 100:1 is some serious stuff.
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Andiron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #218 on: March 29, 2020, 10:42:22 PM »
I *think* what he is saying is there are a week's worth of people who are infected but not actually sick yet, and some of them will die.  Some number were infected last Monday.  More were infected on Tuesday, still more on Wednesday, etc, because the infection rate was still exponential then. 

That's where you get the growth in casualties with magically no more new infections before it rapidly tapers off.

This.
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RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #219 on: March 29, 2020, 10:48:50 PM »
A couple of days ago my town's mayor sent out a telephonic robo call, asking everyone to self-isolate as much as possible. She said the town had three confirmed cases (mercifully, as of today it's still three) but the part that shocked me was that she said the experts estimate that for every confirmed case there are 100 undiagnosed cases. That surprised me. I had thought that the ratio was maybe 10:1. 100:1 is some serious stuff.

Another way one might look at that is that for every serious case there is 100 that isn't.
Of course there is some factor of diagnosed cases. Even if we use a conservative 5:1 how would that affect the oft touted fatality rate?
Yes I believe this is a serious disease but the official numbers are *expletive deleted*ing ludicrous and designed to cause fear and panic that can be taken advantage of.
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bedlamite

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #220 on: March 29, 2020, 10:58:45 PM »
I *think* what he is saying is there are a TWO week's worth of people who are infected but not actually sick yet, and some of them will die.  Some number were infected last Monday.  More were infected on Tuesday, still more on Wednesday, etc, because the infection rate was still exponential then. 

That's where you get the growth in casualties with magically no more new infections before it rapidly tapers off.

FTFY.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #221 on: March 30, 2020, 07:39:25 AM »
Well...April 30th at the earliest for the Fed guidelines. 
And the fed instructions are just that, guidelines.
Peak daily deaths in two weeks according to government modeling.
In other words, we ain't seen nothing yet.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #222 on: March 30, 2020, 08:45:03 AM »
Trump concedes anything under 100,000 is a "very good job"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/trump-deaths-coronavirus/index.html
 :O
JD

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K Frame

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #223 on: March 30, 2020, 08:47:49 AM »
And I'm sure that MSNBC's headline will be something along the lines of TRUMP: "I hope I can keep the number of people I murder to under 100,000"
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Fly320s

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #224 on: March 30, 2020, 08:49:18 AM »
Trump concedes anything under 100,000 is a "very good job"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/trump-deaths-coronavirus/index.html
 :O

Sounds good to me.  Better than a million.
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