Author Topic: COVID19 predictions  (Read 42409 times)

RoadKingLarry

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #250 on: March 30, 2020, 02:10:23 PM »
Quote
Quote from: Jamisjockey on Today at 10:40:48 AM
Speaking of hippies, remember when national guard troops shot a bunch of them at a college in the 60's?  Peppridge farm remembers.

Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, May 4, 1970.  Stupidity on the part of poorly trained NG troops.

How many hippies in "a bunch"?  =D
Since not all the victims were technically hippies are they lumped in as part of the bunch?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings

Read the timeline of events. While the NG shooting indiscriminately was unarguably criminal, there were plenty of people involved that didn't get shot that should have been.
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Pb

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #251 on: March 30, 2020, 03:22:32 PM »
"semi obscure historical event"
Yes it is.  But it's also when Washington ordered federal troops to put down armed protests over whiskey taxes. 


The constitution specifically gave the Federal Government the authority to tax, including the whiskey tax.  The people rebelling against the whiskey tax had zero legal or constitutional right to do so.  Suppressing the rebellion was not tyranny.

lupinus

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #252 on: March 30, 2020, 03:28:05 PM »
Regardless, once again this assumes people supposedly pulling strings could have their head out of their ass long enough to do so, and for nothing to leak about it. It also doesn't explain other countries that don't have the same sort of media over saturation, hell state run media, taking even stronger actions than we have. It's not like we're an island in a sea of others not giving a flip.

Keep on mind even if it comes out with minimal cases/deaths that doesn't mean measures weren't needed. It just means they worked.

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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #253 on: March 30, 2020, 03:36:58 PM »
The constitution specifically gave the Federal Government the authority to tax, including the whiskey tax.  The people rebelling against the whiskey tax had zero legal or constitutional right to do so.  Suppressing the rebellion was not tyranny.

I'm still perplexed by jamis's answer. He apparently thinks that calling an event "semi-obscure" is another way of saying it doesn't matter. Or at least, that's my best guess.

I guess we're accustomed to thinking that any rights you lose, you don't get back, or that if we let the government get away with something once, we can never stop them from doing it again. That sounds compelling, (the inverse of the Whig view of history), but how does it compare with the facts? I think, if you look at what has actually happened, it's just not true.

Blacks and women were kept from voting for a long time, but they do now.

Gun carry restrictions from 150 years ago have been repealed. Maybe not in all states, but in the majority of them.

From the Alien and Sedition Acts to the similar laws enacted in the WWI era, there have been a lot of encroachments on freedom of speech that simply wouldn't be allowed by the courts today.

Other examples may occur to you.
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zxcvbob

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #254 on: March 30, 2020, 04:20:45 PM »
I'm still perplexed by jamis's answer. He apparently thinks that calling an event "semi-obscure" is another way of saying it doesn't matter. Or at least, that's my best guess.

I thought "semi-obscure" was semi-sarcastic; also because we don't talk about the Kent State Massacre much anymore and most Americans are too young to remember it.
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Perd Hapley

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #255 on: March 30, 2020, 04:53:49 PM »
I thought "semi-obscure" was semi-sarcastic; also because we don't talk about the Kent State Massacre much anymore and most Americans are too young to remember it.

When I said semi-obscure, I was referring to the Whiskey Rebellion. Semi-obscurity has no bearing on importance or relevance. It's semi-obscure because most living Americans have never heard of it. Those who have, including me, know almost nothing about it. Semi-, but not fully, obscure, because - well, I just don't think it's truly obscure. You might say the 10mm cartridge is semi-obscure (most people have never heard of it, because they haven't seen that episode of Twin Peaks or Miami Vice, or whatever), but it's not truly obscure, like .41 Special.

All that being said, one can stipulate that the Whiskey Rebellion may have been an instance of tyranny, but that doesn't mean we've never been free, never will be free, or can't be free. It doesn't justify a feeling of superiority over those who don't know about it.

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freakazoid

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #256 on: March 30, 2020, 07:25:48 PM »
Gee, wonder why the media never mentions that or what the protesters had been up to for the past two days.

This. It's like people think the National Guard just randomly decided to show up and shoot some people, and not that these "protesters" had been rioting the days before destroying things.
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MechAg94

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #257 on: March 30, 2020, 08:24:25 PM »
When I said semi-obscure, I was referring to the Whiskey Rebellion. Semi-obscurity has no bearing on importance or relevance. It's semi-obscure because most living Americans have never heard of it. Those who have, including me, know almost nothing about it. Semi-, but not fully, obscure, because - well, I just don't think it's truly obscure. You might say the 10mm cartridge is semi-obscure (most people have never heard of it, because they haven't seen that episode of Twin Peaks or Miami Vice, or whatever), but it's not truly obscure, like .41 Special.

All that being said, one can stipulate that the Whiskey Rebellion may have been an instance of tyranny, but that doesn't mean we've never been free, never will be free, or can't be free. It doesn't justify a feeling of superiority over those who don't know about it.


The Whiskey Rebellion may not be taught in schools now, but when I was in school, it was a commonly taught event.  I think it was used as an example of the new Govt asserting federal power.  Which is pretty much what the colonies wanted when they elected to get rid of the Articles of Confederation.  It should not be a semi-obscure event, but I think anything that doesn't have a movie made about it is probably semi-obscure at best these days. 
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MechAg94

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #258 on: March 30, 2020, 08:26:59 PM »
This. It's like people think the National Guard just randomly decided to show up and shoot some people, and not that these "protesters" had been rioting the days before destroying things.
1.  Rioting always seems to be called "protesting" even when everyone knows it is way beyond that.

2.  I think the Kent State incident was probably one of those times where it would have been better to take away the troop rifles, give them all clubs, then tell them to club anyone that doesn't disperse.  Probably would have created less of an uproar even if more people would have been hurt.

On #2, I always thought it was odd that some people seem to think someone getting killed with a gun is somehow far worse than someone getting beaten and paralyzed or turned into a vegetable. 
“It is much more important to kill bad bills than to pass good ones.”  ― Calvin Coolidge

Jim147

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #259 on: March 30, 2020, 08:56:35 PM »
I can't paste in this but Neil Young Ohio
Sometimes we carry more weight then we owe.
And sometimes goes on and on and on.

BAH-WEEP-GRAAAGHNAH WHEEP NI-NI BONG

BlueStarLizzard

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #260 on: March 30, 2020, 09:06:01 PM »
I can't paste in this but Neil Young Ohio

In response to a different song, but still...

Quote
.     Well I heard Mister Young sing about her
Well I heard ol' Neil put her down
Well I hope Neil Young will remember
A southern man don't need him around anyhow

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Jim147

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #261 on: March 30, 2020, 09:09:13 PM »
Don't even need to look that up I have listened to that song much more.
Sometimes we carry more weight then we owe.
And sometimes goes on and on and on.

BAH-WEEP-GRAAAGHNAH WHEEP NI-NI BONG

cordex

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #262 on: March 31, 2020, 09:47:44 AM »
Chart of new cases per day in the US:

I don't know how to analyze this.  On the one hand it looks like the increase is slowing, but that is likely due in no small part to many people staying home and everything being closed.  To balance against that, testing is going way up in the same timeframe.

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #263 on: March 31, 2020, 10:03:39 AM »
Chart of new cases per day in the US:

I don't know how to analyze this.  On the one hand it looks like the increase is slowing, but that is likely due in no small part to many people staying home and everything being closed.  To balance against that, testing is going way up in the same timeframe.

They keep saying a peak around April 14, be interesting where the graph is then of new cases per day.
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bedlamite

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #264 on: March 31, 2020, 10:06:28 AM »
Leveling off at 20K is a good start, but we need to get that coming back down.
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Ron

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #265 on: March 31, 2020, 10:11:58 AM »
I'd like them to continue testing everyone even after this burns out.

Knowing just how widespread and where the infections are has to be helpful information for future models.

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #266 on: March 31, 2020, 10:19:21 AM »
My unscientific, intuitive prediction is ... 50k or fewer will sucomb to this virus in the USA.

Most all of them will be elderly and/or having preexisting complications.



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RocketMan

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #267 on: March 31, 2020, 10:21:24 AM »
On a tangential note, my ADS-B receiver is showing much less air traffic for the last couple of weeks.  Where normally there are between 80 and 120 aircraft in range of my receiver at any given time, I've been showing 22 to 25 for the last week.
Where I sit in NC I see a lot of traffic that moves up and down the east coast, plus everything going through Charlotte Intl, and much of what moves east out of Atlanta.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #268 on: March 31, 2020, 12:01:19 PM »
I'd like them to continue testing everyone even after this burns out.

Knowing just how widespread and where the infections are has to be helpful information for future models.



It's how the Koreans and Japanese have kept a semblance of normalcy. 
Aggressive testing, aggressive contact tracing, and aggressive quarantining of those actually sick.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #269 on: March 31, 2020, 12:04:57 PM »
On a tangential note, my ADS-B receiver is showing much less air traffic for the last couple of weeks.  Where normally there are between 80 and 120 aircraft in range of my receiver at any given time, I've been showing 22 to 25 for the last week.
Where I sit in NC I see a lot of traffic that moves up and down the east coast, plus everything going through Charlotte Intl, and much of what moves east out of Atlanta.

A lot of planes are parked now, although not everywhere. ORD is still busy for some reason, so the controllers aren't being allowed to keep the social distancing schedule that got worked out. 
A lot of private pilots were taking advantage of the cheap gas.  The day after the emergency was declared, we had summer traffic numbers.  It was insane how busy we were that weekend. 
We're now on crews of 5 days on, 10 days off. I will only see the same maybe 7 people on any given shift and only work with 5 others.  If someone gets sick, they can quarantine a crew, clean the facility, and bring in a relief crew once cleaning is done.  I guess they figured that all out after *expletive deleted*ing up ZID (Indy Center). 
JD

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K Frame

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #270 on: March 31, 2020, 12:52:30 PM »
Last week I was back at the main contractors office waiting for authorization to work at home. The office looks over Dulles Airport.

Last August when I was in those offices it was amazing how busy the place was.

Now? It's as if everyone is asleep....

The office where I normally work is under one of the main approach/takeoff paths. It used to be when I'd go out for a smoke I'd see as many as 10 planes coming in to land.

This morning when I was out? It was 3 or 4 in the same amount of time.
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lupinus

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #271 on: March 31, 2020, 02:38:04 PM »
The local version of people taking advantage of the time off and cheap gas was hitting the lake and rafting.

Apparently someone was not amused by the pictures of redneck party island with boats rafted together as now all the public boat ramps, docks, and piers are closed in addition to public beaches.

The lakes themselves aren't closed, but you'll be needing private access if you want to hit them.

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Fly320s

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #272 on: March 31, 2020, 04:19:27 PM »
On a tangential note, my ADS-B receiver is showing much less air traffic for the last couple of weeks.  Where normally there are between 80 and 120 aircraft in range of my receiver at any given time, I've been showing 22 to 25 for the last week.
Where I sit in NC I see a lot of traffic that moves up and down the east coast, plus everything going through Charlotte Intl, and much of what moves east out of Atlanta.

My airline has reduced the flying by 70% through April.  I bet May has a similar reduction.  Even with the ruced flights, load factor is less than 25%.
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Jamisjockey

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Re: COVID19 predictions
« Reply #274 on: April 02, 2020, 08:13:35 AM »
I think this one is quite possibly the most important article about Corona virus to date
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
JD

 The price of a lottery ticket seems to be the maximum most folks are willing to risk toward the dream of becoming a one-percenter. “Robert Hollis”