COVID19 predictions

[Ron]

CDC numbers just over 60k deaths surpassing my earlier uneducated guess. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Of course the reported numbers are dung.

The media are reporting over 80k deaths pretty regularly now so with a fudge factor of 20k and actual reported cases being based upon criteria that is tantamount to lying we really don't know squat.

Amazingly, at least regarding deaths, in the USA even using bogus numbers, the "it's a bad flu" crowd are currently closer to the truth than the "experts".

You may now go back to your regularly scheduled programmed fear and panic.

[WLJ]

CDC numbers just over 60k deaths surpassing my earlier uneducated guess. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Of course the reported numbers are dung.

The media are reporting over 80k deaths pretty regularly now so with a fudge factor of 20k and actual reported cases being based upon criteria that is tantamount to lying we really don't know squat.

Amazingly, at least regarding deaths, in the USA even using bogus numbers, the "it's a bad flu" crowd are currently closer to the truth than the "experts".

You may now go back to your regularly scheduled programmed fear and panic.

Saw AP headlines over a picture of Trump screaming over 90,000 last week

[Hawkmoon]

Saw AP headlines over a picture of Trump screaming over 90,000 last week

Johns Hopkins is reporting 90,373 this morning.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

[charby]

After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction.

[makattak]

After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction.

... of 5 million dead? By September?

[charby]

I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.

I said when it's all over.

[cordex]

I said when it's all over.

And when asked what that meant clarified Sept. 3rd.

If you meant “By the time humans stop dying from related viruses” then your estimate is way low.

[charby]

And when asked what that meant clarified Sept. 3rd.

If you meant “By the time humans stop dying from related viruses” then your estimate is way low.

May I extend my Covid deadline.

[Ron]

I said when it's all over.

Want to give us some numbers for flu deaths?

[charby]

Want to give us some numbers for flu deaths?

Really not the same, you know that. Flu doesn't make you bleed out the eyes either.

[Ron]

Really not the same, you know that. Flu doesn't make you bleed out the eyes either.

You are a fear monger.

[zxcvbob]

Really not the same, you know that. Flu doesn't make you bleed out the eyes either.

I thought that was ebola.

[cordex]

May I extend my Covid deadline.

You can change your mind as many times as you like.

[charby]

I thought that was ebola.

I asked the same question this am.

[dogmush]

Really not the same, you know that. Flu doesn't make you bleed out the eyes either.

We"re not sure COVID does either. As far as I am aware the question has been asked, but not answered.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300214

Unless you have some actual evidence?

For what it's worth, SARS and MERS both also had low incidence side effects of hemorrhaging (intracranial and elsewhere). Basically the whole coronavirus family can, very rarely,  do something weird and end up acting like a hemorrhagic fever. If you roll that particular set of snake-eyes you probably won't make it. That doesn't change the fact that it's primarily a respiratory disease with a high survival rate.

To head any other fearmongers off, COVID-19 can also cause brain, liver, and kidney issues, up to and including organ failure,  and in some cases weird clotting* issues as well.  It's still a pretty survivable disease.

After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction.

I think the only way you are even getting close to that number is if you include the poverty related deaths the shutdown will cause.


*Yes, COVID can make you bleed, not bleed, or not mess with you blood at all.  This is the problem with using the far ends of the bell curve as "symptoms ".

[cordex]

charby,

So what's your new time frame for 5 million dead Americans, all bleeding from their eyes based on your secret source?

[WLJ]

Bleeding from the eyeballs is a symptom of watching The Rise of Skywalker

[charby]

charby,

So what's your new time frame for 5 million dead Americans, all bleeding from their eyes based on your secret source?

All? Really? Did I type all?

Timeframe is when Covid runs it course in the US, you can't put an exact date in it, going to flare up and going to simmer a bit. Not over until most have antibodies for Covid 19 has via exposure or vaccine. Development of effective vaccines don't happen very fast so this is going to linger for the unforeseeable future. We already have enough skeptics vaccines that it may take even longer for herd immunity once an effective vaccine is available.

[makattak]

We already have enough skeptics vaccines that it may take even longer for herd immunity once an effective vaccine is available.

That's what happens when you call the feds overreact based on wildly wrong models AND then refuse to correct course once the models are shown to be WILDLY off base. E.g. Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin.... (just pick every state with a Democrat Governor minus, surprisingly, Colorado.)

People can see the facts on the ground. IFF this had been shown to be a seriously dangerous disease, people would have accepted most of these stupid restrictions.

They have eyes. They can see it is nowhere near as dangerous as it was made out to be and that the original reason for all the lockdowns (SAVE THE HOSPITALS!!!>!111!>!!) is now "KILL THE HOSPITALS TO SAVE GRANDMA!!!"

(Now, grandma will die of something else that COULD have been treated if the hospitals had survived, but hey, she didn't die of COVID!)

[cordex]

Timeframe is when Covid runs it course in the US, you can't put an exact date in it, going to flare up and going to simmer a bit. Not over until most have antibodies for Covid 19 has via exposure or vaccine. Development of effective vaccines don't happen very fast so this is going to linger for the unforeseeable future. We already have enough skeptics vaccines that it may take even longer for herd immunity once an effective vaccine is available.

Fair enough, but five million Americans dead of COVID-19 by September 3 as you originally suggested is very different than if 5 million Americans die from it over the next 60 years or something. 

Anyhow, I'd be happy to bet a good chunk of money against 5 million Americans dying from Covid-19 in any reasonable time period.

[makattak]

Incidentally, I'm still sticking with my prediction.

The government will fast track the vaccine, which will be available this fall. Most people will get it and the Chinese virus will have become one more "flu" to deal with.  

Summer will cause a natural ebb in the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, leading to a recovery. By election time, the stock market will have been recovered and Trump sails to victory.

Oh, and all the spending moves us 6 months closer to the reckoning for unfunded liabilities.

[Perd Hapley]

Let's set the number of dead from the first wave at something pretty high, say 200,000 dead 'Muricans.

Then let's say there is, as many have predicted, a second wave late in the year, which is worse than the first. Say 400,000.

That's over half a million this year. Let's say in subsequent years, we are all super-serious about masks and staying at home, and we get better at treating the illness, so we reduce the death toll to just 400,000. That's high, but we're giving the pessimists the benefit here.

If I'm mathing my maths right, we would hit 5 million dead in about 12 years. If there's a vaccine to be found, you'd think we'd have found it by then.

So if, instead of Sept. 2020, charby really meant Dec. 2032...

[lee n. field]

That's what happens when you call the feds overreact based on wildly wrong models AND then refuse to correct course once the models are shown to be WILDLY off base. E.g. Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin.... (just pick every state with a Democrat Governor minus, surprisingly, Colorado.)

People can see the facts on the ground. IFF this had been shown to be a seriously dangerous disease, people would have accepted most of these stupid restrictions.

They have eyes. They can see it is nowhere near as dangerous as it was made out to be and that the original reason for all the lockdowns (SAVE THE HOSPITALS!!!>!111!>!!) is now "KILL THE HOSPITALS TO SAVE GRANDMA!!!"

Where, I've wondered rhetorically, are the piles of corpses? 

[WLJ]

Where, I've wondered rhetorically, are the piles of corpses?  

Only the Clinton's know for sure


Whoops, those weren't the piles you were asking about.

[charby]

Fair enough, but five million Americans dead of COVID-19 by September 3 as you originally suggested is very different than if 5 million Americans die from it over the next 60 years or something. 

Anyhow, I'd be happy to bet a good chunk of money against 5 million Americans dying from Covid-19 in any reasonable time period.

1918 Pandemic was a bit over 12 months long, Black Death was about 5 years. We've only been at this since December.

If you can comprehend how the Covid virus attacks the body and how the body responds, you might think a bit differently. Especially how more contagious Covid is vs the various flus and their strains. For both it's still a secondary infection that ends up killing the person, but the initial viral attack is what started it.