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Author Topic: The Great Reopening  (Read 4045 times)
Nick1911
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« on: April 28, 2020, 05:45:51 AM »

I'm hearing more and more chatter in my neck of the woods about easing restrictions and getting things back to normal.

I'll admit, I haven't been following the COVID19 news much anymore.  Little burned out, and just got busy with stuff going on around here.

I don't really understand what has changed since the restrictions went in place such that NOW we can reopen things safely?  We don't have a vaccine... is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now?  Certainly there's been a cultural shift, so perhaps folks will be more careful and keep the spread down regardless?

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DittoHead
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« Reply #1 on: April 28, 2020, 05:54:01 AM »

is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now? 

At the rate of the past few days, the U.S. has roughly doubled its testing capacity since last week. With 1.5 million tests reported last week, the U.S. has passed former FDA commissioner Scott Gottliebĺs initial threshold of 750,000 weekly tests to begin rolling back physical-distancing measures. Gottlieb has since suggested that a much higher number will be necessary to reopen the economy. Economist Paul Romer puts the number at 2 million tests a day, or 14 million a week, far more than the U.S. is currently conducting. While we have a long way to go, the recent increase in testing bodes well for the U.S.ĺs ability to relax the national shutdown.
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« Reply #2 on: April 28, 2020, 06:14:49 AM »

... I don't really understand what has changed since the restrictions went in place such that NOW we can reopen things safely?  We don't have a vaccine... is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now?  Certainly there's been a cultural shift, so perhaps folks will be more careful and keep the spread down regardless?

None of the last 3+ months of China Virus madness makes any sense.

We aren't given good accurate information so how can we even make an actual educated choice?

Welcome to clown world.

By not paying attention you chose well, wiser than me.

All my observations have done is infuriate me, destroying what little faith in our institutions I had remaining.

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charby
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« Reply #3 on: April 28, 2020, 06:18:05 AM »

Iowa is doing it county by county, May 1 77 or the 99 counties will have limited reopening of businesses, with more opening on May 15. The 22 other counties is where we have had a expediential growth in those testing positive, packing plants and nursing homes.
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makattak
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« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2020, 06:22:33 AM »

No, our testing is not and will not be sufficient to "contain outbreaks" and that was never the purpose of the lockdown.

That's what cowardly people who want to prolong the suffering of the economy are falling back on in order to prevent opening the economy back up.

We were supposed to be "flattening the curve" so the hospitals weren't overwhelmed with cases because it was understood that we couldn't contain the outbreak.

And, instead of overwhelmed hospitals, we have hospitals in danger of closing because they have no patients.

Seems to me we succeeded in "flattening the curve" and now we need to get things moving before we destroy our healthcare system, in addition to the thousands of small businesses that have amazingly not closed yet. (Since we've already destroyed the dreams and aspirations of other untold thousands of small business owners.)
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« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2020, 06:27:47 AM »

Too little, too late.  So many small businesses have been destroyed that it will take several years for the economy to recover to even Obama levels.  Same thing for unemployment.
Roaring Trump economy levels?  Forget about it, never to be seen again.
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« Reply #6 on: April 28, 2020, 06:30:02 AM »

We're opening 01MAY. Also doing the "staged" thing, with stuff like bars opening last.  I don't know when the "last" date is.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the difference will be versus the last few weeks. Most places I go have been almost business as usual, other than some people wearing masks. The only place I haven't gone is Costco because I don't want to wait in line to get in. Might be interesting to go there in the next couple of days, then again right after 01MAY to see what the difference is.

The Home Depot I go to in Oregon has been packed - almost more people than pre-virus on weekdays. My understanding is that Oregon joined that California "Western states science" gang that is extending the shutdown, but you couldn't tell that from any of the businesses in Eastern Oregon.


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« Reply #7 on: April 28, 2020, 06:35:27 AM »

Too little, too late.  So many small businesses have been destroyed that it will take several years for the economy to recover to even Obama levels.  Same thing for unemployment.
Roaring Trump economy levels?  Forget about it, never to be seen again.

The fundamentals of the economy are better than they were 12 years ago.   It won't be a "V"   recovery but it will be decent. 
"Roaring Trump economy levels? Forget about it, never to be seen again."  Wow.  Never?  Not even in the year 2525 --- assuming man is still alive?   
A bit  pessimistic in the hyperbole there, RocketMan,  IMHO.  rolleyes
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Ron
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« Reply #8 on: April 28, 2020, 06:42:17 AM »

The recovery will be robust for those who were already robust.

The recovery will be weak for those that were already weak.
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« Reply #9 on: April 28, 2020, 07:49:03 AM »

The oil industry has taken a big hit.  They would have taken a hit with the low oil prices, but the lock down reduced demand on top of that.  However, the oil industry goes up and down periodically so it could bounce back better than most.  Depends on how the market changes going forward.
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« Reply #10 on: April 28, 2020, 08:35:45 AM »

The fundamentals of the economy are better than they were 12 years ago.   It won't be a "V"   recovery but it will be decent. 
"Roaring Trump economy levels? Forget about it, never to be seen again."  Wow.  Never?  Not even in the year 2525 --- assuming man is still alive?   
A bit  pessimistic in the hyperbole there, RocketMan,  IMHO.  rolleyes


Unless the Presidential term limit is changed, and/or he has an exceptionally long life span, we only have about 4-5 years to reinstate a "roaring Trump economy."
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« Reply #11 on: April 28, 2020, 08:41:58 AM »


I don't really understand what has changed since the restrictions went in place such that NOW we can reopen things safely?  We don't have a vaccine... is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now?  Certainly there's been a cultural shift, so perhaps folks will be more careful and keep the spread down regardless?


I think you might call 20-million-plus unemployment a "cultural shift." That's what changed.

Then there's the fact we've already been doing this for a month or more (location-dependent), and we can't do it forever. So there was a chronological change.

Plus we seem to have dodged the overcrowded hospital problem, so that changed.

And then you have just way too many examples of over-reach from government, and hypocrisy from the elite Fredos, which sours people on the whole idea.

And in those places where government isn't enforcing heavy-handed quarantine policies, everyone's going out to Home Depot, or having private get-togethers anyway, so why bother?
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charby
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« Reply #12 on: April 28, 2020, 08:52:26 AM »

I see a labor uprising, going to hard for some folks to go back to work when they were making more money on unemployment then actually working. That extra $600 a week is going to sting a lot of people. $600 a week is $15.00/hr.
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Iowa- 88% more livable that the rest of the US

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« Reply #13 on: April 28, 2020, 09:08:23 AM »

Some doctors on both coasts calling for an end to the lock-down.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/27/ive-worked-the-coronavirus-front-line-and-i-say-its-time-to-start-opening-up/

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/fear-of-it-is-being-over-amplified-er-doctor-claims-its-time-for-country-to-get-back-to-work

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RocketMan
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« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2020, 11:52:34 AM »

The fundamentals of the economy are better than they were 12 years ago.   It won't be a "V"   recovery but it will be decent. 
"Roaring Trump economy levels? Forget about it, never to be seen again."  Wow.  Never?  Not even in the year 2525 --- assuming man is still alive?   
A bit  pessimistic in the hyperbole there, RocketMan,  IMHO.  rolleyes

A little hyperbolic your own self there.  The year 2525?  Really?
It will be many years, if ever, before the economy recovers to the level that can be attributed to the Trump business tax cut.  Small business has been devastated by the lockdown, and many small businesses are gone for good.  Whether you realize it or not, small business is the mainstay of our economy.  It will take years for new businesses to take the places of those that are gone.  That is not an instant process.

It's more likely in my opinion that the Democrats will find themselves back in power permanently at some point, and those business tax cuts will be history.  Evil business must pay its fair share, after all.  When that happens, the best we can hope for is tepid annual GDP growth and unemployment rates of 7-8% as the new normal.
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TommyGunn
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« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2020, 08:04:13 PM »

A little hyperbolic your own self there.  The year 2525?  Really?
It will be many years, if ever, before the economy recovers to the level that can be attributed to the Trump business tax cut.  Small business has been devastated by the lockdown, and many small businesses are gone for good.  Whether you realize it or not, small business is the mainstay of our economy.  It will take years for new businesses to take the places of those that are gone.  That is not an instant process.

It's more likely in my opinion that the Democrats will find themselves back in power permanently at some point, and those business tax cuts will be history.  Evil business must pay its fair share, after all.  When that happens, the best we can hope for is tepid annual GDP growth and unemployment rates of 7-8% as the new normal.

That's what I said.   2525 - 2020 = 505.  It will be 505 years.  That's "many years."   Tinfoil Hat Smiley  (It was lifted from an obscure old song from the 1960s I believe .... Grumpy Old Man Face Palm! )

I know a lot of small businesses have been decimated.  But those people won't be sitting on their hands. 
And I'm sure at some time a demorat president will be elected -- but Gawd help us NOT Biden! 
I find your estimates inordinately pessimistic ..... I also find other's estimates overly optimistic.

But what really fries me is that whatever happens .... we did this to ourselves ..... Face Palm! Cry angry
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« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2020, 09:59:57 PM »

That's what I said.   2525 - 2020 = 505.  It will be 505 years.  That's "many years."   Tinfoil Hat Smiley  (It was lifted from an obscure old song from the 1960s I believe .... Grumpy Old Man Face Palm! )


1968, and hardly "obscure." It charted number one in the U.S. and in the U,K.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_the_Year_2525

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic
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« Reply #17 on: April 29, 2020, 04:33:52 AM »

I'm hearing more and more chatter in my neck of the woods about easing restrictions and getting things back to normal.

I'll admit, I haven't been following the COVID19 news much anymore.  Little burned out, and just got busy with stuff going on around here.

I don't really understand what has changed since the restrictions went in place such that NOW we can reopen things safely?  We don't have a vaccine... is our testing infrastructure beefed up enough to identify and contain outbreaks now?  Certainly there's been a cultural shift, so perhaps folks will be more careful and keep the spread down regardless?



It's *expletive deleted*ing up the economy, and all the women need their hair dyed.  With very little spread to rural areas, people there aren't feeling any effects from the virus.
Whether we get a full on second wave or not, remains to be seen.  It's possible that enough herd immunity has spread, and a slow "reopening" will help spread that without it being overwhelming. 
Testing capacity is finally up, and rapid tests are coming to market.
I suspect we'll see smaller, localized outbreaks.  Whether we're smart enough for small shutdowns in those areas to keep it contained or not, that remains to be seen. 
Vaccine?  Next year at the earliest.
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« Reply #18 on: April 29, 2020, 05:17:35 AM »


Vaccine?  Next year at the earliest.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-vaccine-oxford-university-scientists-september/
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« Reply #19 on: April 29, 2020, 05:21:22 AM »


The government will fast track the vaccine, which will be available this fall. Most people will get it and the Chinese virus will have become one more "flu" to deal with.  

Summer will cause a natural ebb in the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, leading to a recovery. By election time, the stock market will have been recovered and Trump sails to victory.

Oh, and all the spending moves us 6 months closer to the reckoning for unfunded liabilities.

So, if Oxford gets it first, I was wrong on who would make the vaccine, but not on the timing.
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I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought
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« Reply #20 on: April 29, 2020, 05:36:18 AM »

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/29/greatest-living-american-writer-we-will-never-be-safe-until-we-are-safe/
Quote

As this disease weakens us, it also strengthens us. As it pulls us apart, it also brings us together. We must all learn what it is like to eat disinfected cardboard soaked in a little soy sauce and to live in perpetual fear of people who look happy. Because of our lax government response to the disease, and the lack of antibody tests that may or may not be accurate, this is the reality in which we live. We must isolate the tested, test the isolated, and stun children at the playground with laser drones.
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« Reply #21 on: April 29, 2020, 05:58:34 AM »

We're opening 01MAY. Also doing the "staged" thing, with stuff like bars opening last.  I don't know when the "last" date is.

Honestly, I'm not sure what the difference will be versus the last few weeks. Most places I go have been almost business as usual, other than some people wearing masks. The only place I haven't gone is Costco because I don't want to wait in line to get in. Might be interesting to go there in the next couple of days, then again right after 01MAY to see what the difference is.

The Home Depot I go to in Oregon has been packed - almost more people than pre-virus on weekdays. My understanding is that Oregon joined that California "Western states science" gang that is extending the shutdown, but you couldn't tell that from any of the businesses in Eastern Oregon.




Glad common sense is prevailing somewhere in Oregon.
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« Reply #22 on: April 29, 2020, 07:16:15 AM »

1968, and hardly "obscure." It charted number one in the U.S. and in the U,K.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/In_the_Year_2525

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izQB2-Kmiic

Well .... it appears to be obscure in the year 2020 ....      grin  .......   Tinfoil Hat Smiley
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MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero
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« Reply #23 on: April 29, 2020, 07:47:26 AM »

Well .... it appears to be obscure in the year 2020 ....      grin  .......   Tinfoil Hat Smiley

Funny, I recognize this from the futurama parody of it.  Didn't know until now that it was actually referencing a song from the 60's.

So, obscure to me, maybe... But I'm young enough to not clearly remember when the soviet union existed.  I suspect it's not obscure to older folks.
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« Reply #24 on: April 29, 2020, 08:12:42 AM »

. . .  Didn't know until now that it was actually referencing a song from the 60's . . .
Philistine.*





* - that term originates a bit before the 1960s . . .  Wink




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