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Author Topic: COVID19 predictions  (Read 19270 times)
fistful
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« Reply #475 on: May 28, 2020, 12:02:40 PM »

Not sure what you guys are complaining about. Celebrities sang for us. Celebrities!
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lee n. field
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« Reply #476 on: May 28, 2020, 02:21:24 PM »

Data point here.  My brother the nurse tells me:

With reference to the beer virus.  He's in Rockford, IL.  Urban area of 300-someodd-thousand(ish).  He's in one of the hospitals there.

A couple more steps in the ongoing conversation:

Me
Quote
Just guessing, Mentally handicapped, group home or other subprime housing situation.  L & B, just being poor.

Him

Quote
Yep. For L&B it's about socialization. Large families, or complex families with needs. Also lots of younger people who can't be kept home, working or socializing. It isn't just high british officials who want to see their girlfriends.
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At thy right hand pleasures for evermore.
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« Reply #477 on: August 19, 2020, 11:27:42 AM »

Thought I'd gather up some of the predictions and see how they've aged so far.
Currently the US is at 5,513,167 confirmed cases, with 2,387,621 currently infected, and 173,055 dead.
Daily deaths spiked nationally in April-May, had a lull in June, and increased slightly into August.  Daily confirmed cases had an initial spike in March, dropped down toward mid-June and hit a big spike in July.  Currently daily confirmed cases appear to be dropping significantly since 7/15.

In the US, lockdowns have so far apparently helped to "flatten the curve" as originally intended, but the message quickly morphed to an unsustainable technique for permanent prevention.  Some states with lockdowns still in effect have had serious issues.  Some states with no lockdown have had serious issues.  In essence, lockdowns did not seem to serve to actually prevent the disease, just drag it out over a longer time period.

1-3000 deaths and by June life is pretty normal.
Currently at 5,735% of this guess.
Wishful thinking!

I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.
Currently at 3.4% of this guess.
So far way, way high and no apparent way to hit this in any reasonable amount of time, much less in the next two weeks as the initial "September 3rd" clarification would require.  I sure hope 4,827,945 people don't die in the next two weeks.

I predict

Over 99% of the country will survive.

The government will end up even more powerful.

The rich will still be rich.

The poor will still be poor.
If we take the literal implication that 1% of the US will die, then the guess of 3.28 million was a high and we are currently at 5.2% of this guess. 

Otherwise a very accurate prediction.

In 10 days, we'll have at least 6 major cities including New York where the hospitals are war zones.

I'm doubling down on my prediction that the US ends up with the most overall confirmed cases, and ends up with a very high death toll.
No numbers to evaluate.
I don't think very many US hospitals looked like war zones - especially not across six major cities at a go.  NYC maybe, though.  US has far and away the most confirmed cases and has a very high death toll, so all in all a pretty accurate (if vague) guess.

This will transfer over to our swine herds and kill a lot of pigs.
I didn't see any articles about this.  Has COVID started killing pigs?

So 4 million dead Americans.
Currently at 4.3% of this guess.

Iĺm guessing way less than that. I donĺt have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.

In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing.  The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.
Currently at 172% of this guess.
Way optimistic on deaths (even if the guess made me look like a pessimist when I posted it).  Current US death rate is 3.1%, which is the opposite direction from what I thought it would go.

As sadistic as this sounds, we're just getting started and it's been a fustercluck from the start, the all ready loaded medical/hospital system is going to crash hard, plus we simply don't have enough medical aids/nurses/drs nationwide for this.

Going to be like Italy where old people are just let to die and alone because of no visitors.
On a national level the medical/hospital system has not crashed hard.  Ended up having way too many docs/nurses/medical aids.
Some old people did die alone because of no visitors.  I don't think we had a widespread policy of not treating old people the way Italy did, though.

I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.
Currently at under 8.6% of this guess.  Very prescient condemnation of BLM riots, though.

I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high.  I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations.  NY, LA primarily.

Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.
Currently at 860% of this guess.
Way low on deaths.  Not bad about pointing out the wildly disproportionate impact on NYC and LA.

My unscientific, intuitive prediction is ... 50k or fewer will sucomb to this virus in the USA.

Most all of them will be elderly and/or having preexisting complications.
Currently at 344% of this guess.
Low on the death count, correct on the demographics.

After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction [5 million dead "before this is all over"].
Currently at 3.4% of this guess.
Way high by all appearances, but I never could get charby to settle on a new date after the first one, so maybe he'll be proven correct on some as-yet-uncertain date in the future.  Also funny how many times the guess and time frame changed despite "sticking with" it.  Also, the whole "dying bleeding from the eyes" thing kind of went away...
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fistful
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« Reply #478 on: August 19, 2020, 01:00:53 PM »

I predict no second wave. There may be increased infection or death rates in some places that will be referred to as a second wave (as we have already seen) but that will just be the first wave hitting some place it had largely bypassed until then.
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bedlamite
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« Reply #479 on: August 19, 2020, 04:59:52 PM »

https://twitter.com/pdabrosca/status/1295789508223479810
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« Reply #480 on: August 19, 2020, 05:43:33 PM »

I thought we were all supposed to be dead by now  Huh?
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« Reply #481 on: August 19, 2020, 05:45:27 PM »

I thought we were all supposed to be dead by now  Huh?

If you just live in fear that works also.
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« Reply #482 on: August 19, 2020, 06:54:46 PM »

If you just live in fear that works also.

Fear is the mind killer..


Also,  can't beat Cordex's last post for a bit of confirmation bias/ schadenfreude/
« Last Edit: August 19, 2020, 07:14:26 PM by Andiron » Report to moderator   Logged

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