Author Topic: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?  (Read 13751 times)

Ron

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #175 on: October 09, 2020, 09:42:53 AM »
It does seem the Trump campaign is counting on winning a greater percentage of the minority vote than any Republican in history.

That's a gamble I don't have much confidence in personally.

The Caucasian tribes of the USA by and large have a political death wish so a Trump loss would not surprise me at all.

Half the Caucasians and all minority groups want to finish off what's left of the USA of the old American dream. Democratic Socialism with cultural Marxism is the exciting future that awaits us if Trump loses.

If the Democrats regain power they very well may try and get statehood for DC and Puerto Rico and/or pack the Supreme Court.

With either of those taking place the "deep state" uniparty of Democrats and leftist Republicans will have permanent control of the government. Game.Set.Match






For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Ron

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #176 on: October 09, 2020, 10:01:07 AM »
Kevin Williamson weighs in on the possibility of a Trump landslide.


Yea, that's how I remember it also.

The media and polls were telling us it was a real nail biter back 2016.

Almost too close to call, their polls and predictions were all qualified reporting due to the tight margin of error.

Fricking National Review.

For the invisible things of him since the creation of the world are clearly seen, being perceived through the things that are made, even his everlasting power and divinity, that they may be without excuse. Because knowing God, they didn’t glorify him as God, and didn’t give thanks, but became vain in their reasoning, and their senseless heart was darkened. Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools.

Pb

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #177 on: October 09, 2020, 10:07:36 AM »
Yea, that's how I remember it also.

The media and polls were telling us it was a real nail biter back 2016.

Almost too close to call, their polls and predictions were all qualified reporting due to the tight margin of error.

Fricking National Review.



 =D

makattak

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #178 on: October 09, 2020, 10:22:23 AM »
Mr. Willimason is of course referring to the polls CLOSEST TO THE ELECTION, when the pollsters have stopped trying to shape public opinion with wildly outbalanced sample percentages to build an impression of how unpopular conservatives/Republicans/Trump1 is.

It's the SAME GAME EVERY ELECTION and you'd think supposedly intelligent people would know the game. The polls ALWAYS tighten come election time because they are more closely measuring the voter's preferences. Prior to that, they are reflecting the pollsters preferences.  

But, they do know the game: they're part of it.


1: I separated Trump out of this because he's not a conservative. He's a 90s liberal, which makes him Hitler today.  I separated the Republicans out because many of them aren't conservative, either.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

DittoHead

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #179 on: October 09, 2020, 10:35:39 AM »
It's the SAME GAME EVERY ELECTION and you'd think supposedly intelligent people would know the game. The polls ALWAYS tighten come election time because they are more closely measuring the voter's preferences. Prior to that, they are reflecting the pollsters preferences.  

But, they do know the game: they're part of it.

Doesn't look like the exact same game this time around.

2016 above and 2020 below, both from fivethirtyeight

I do expect it will tighten, although I would have expected that to start already and it has not.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

WLJ

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #180 on: October 09, 2020, 10:40:10 AM »
My prediction and I hope I'm wrong about everything after the first part.

Trump will have 270+ electoral-votes come Wed morning
The media and Dims will dispute the results and in the following one or two weeks will have found enough votes in their Magic Station Wagon of "Lost" Ballots to flip it.
Biden will then come down with the C19 he caught from Trump.
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zxcvbob

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #181 on: October 09, 2020, 10:48:27 AM »
My prediction and I hope I'm wrong about everything after the first part.

Trump will have 270+ electoral-votes come Wed morning
The media and Dims will dispute the results in the following one or two weeks will have found enough votes in their Magic Station Wagon of "Lost" Ballots to flip it.
Biden will then contract C19.

That's exactly right.  Although Biden could also have a heart attack or a stroke (doesn't have to be Covid), but not until after the actual electoral college vote.  They could also wait until January and and Biden's cabinet oust him and anoint Harris, but that's messier.

One way or another, it'll be President Harris in February, regardless of the actual election.
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TommyGunn

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #182 on: October 09, 2020, 10:48:51 AM »
Kevin Williamson weighs in on the possibility of a Trump landslide.

The  polls weren't wrong so much as they were useless.

Many of these polls are too heavily weighted toward democrats.  That doesn't help.  Also involved is the energy level at the base,  and Trump appears to have an edge there.  Many on the opposite side are not enthusiastic about Biden, however,  some really have a deep anti Trump persuasion.  How effective that is seems debatable.

I think Trump wins.... but no landslide.
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makattak

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #183 on: October 09, 2020, 10:51:13 AM »
Doesn't look like the exact same game this time around.

2016 above and 2020 below, both from fivethirtyeight

I do expect it will tighten, although I would have expected that to start already and it has not.

It's the same game with a different objective.

2016, they honestly thought it was in the bag, so they wanted to play up the horserace (it's tightening, she's running away, OHHHH, it's tightening again!) for ratings.

2020, they are running with the "he's inevitable" gambit that they used in the Democrat primary. I don't think they believe they are going to win without serious manipulation.

Same game, different aim.
I wish the Ring had never come to me. I wish none of this had happened.

So do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given to us. There are other forces at work in this world, Frodo, besides the will of evil. Bilbo was meant to find the Ring. In which case, you also were meant to have it. And that is an encouraging thought

WLJ

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #184 on: October 09, 2020, 11:05:17 AM »
It's the same game with a different objective.

2016, they honestly thought it was in the bag, so they wanted to play up the horserace (it's tightening, she's running away, OHHHH, it's tightening again!) for ratings.

2020, they are running with the "he's inevitable" gambit that they used in the Democrat primary. I don't think they believe they are going to win without serious manipulation.

Same game, different aim.

AOC: Being Morally Right Is More Important Than Being Factually Correct
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DittoHead

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #185 on: October 09, 2020, 11:17:59 AM »
The polls ALWAYS tighten come election time because they are more closely measuring the voter's preferences
2020, they are running with the "he's inevitable" gambit that they used in the Democrat primary.

Will he be inevitable all the way to election day or will the polls tighten then?
Seems like voter complacency would be a big problem with the inevitable approach.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

TommyGunn

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #186 on: October 09, 2020, 11:18:19 AM »
AOC: Being Morally Right Is More Important Than Being Factually Correct
If you're not factually correct, can you be morally right? ???  Or is this an excuse to lie?  [popcorn]  :angel:  

Politicians blabber  in such .... "interesting" ways .....  >:D
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

WLJ

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #187 on: October 09, 2020, 11:18:36 AM »
That's exactly right.  Although Biden could also have a heart attack or a stroke (doesn't have to be Covid), but not until after the actual electoral college vote.  They could also wait until January and and Biden's cabinet oust him and anoint Harris, but that's messier.

One way or another, it'll be President Harris in February, regardless of the actual election.

They'll make sure Covid gets the blame then call for Trump to be brought up on criminal charges for knowingly spreading C19. "He murdered our president!"
« Last Edit: October 09, 2020, 11:35:22 AM by WLJ »
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TommyGunn

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #188 on: October 09, 2020, 11:20:56 AM »
They're make sure it's Covid then call for Trump to be brought up on criminal charges for knowingly spreading C19. "He murdered our president!"

Whose side are they on ...? [tinfoil]
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

WLJ

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #189 on: October 09, 2020, 11:24:47 AM »
Whose side are they on ...? [tinfoil]

Sorry, changed my wording a little to "They'll make sure Covid gets the blame then..." but you beat me to it.
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RocketMan

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #190 on: October 09, 2020, 11:29:17 AM »
The reason the polls are weighted toward Democrats is because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.  The spread is somewhere between seven and eleven points depending on the survey.  Additionally, roughly 40% of voters currently identify as independents, and over half of those lean Democrat in their voting habits.
Pollsters cannot just assume a 50-50 spread of Democrats versus Republicans and have even a faint hope of accuracy (not that they're trying to be accurate in the first place).
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

TommyGunn

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #191 on: October 09, 2020, 11:32:56 AM »
The reason the polls are weighted toward Democrats is because there are more registered Democrats than Republicans.  The spread is somewhere between seven and eleven points depending on the survey.  Additionally, roughly 40% of voters currently identify as independents, and over half of those lean Democrat in their voting habits.
Pollsters cannot just assume a 50-50 spread of Democrats versus Republicans and have even a faint hope of accuracy (not that they're trying to be accurate in the first place).

There are more D s  than Rs ,  but Ds are still over-sampled in many polls.  When it is said "over sampled,"  it means too many Ds are sampled in relation to their actual % of voters.  It doesn't mean the sampling should be 50 : 50 of each.
MOLON LABE   "Through ignorance of what is good and what is bad, the life of men is greatly perplexed." ~~ Cicero

DittoHead

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #192 on: October 09, 2020, 11:43:16 AM »
I do think polling this election is going to be unusually difficult because of the importance of weighting those samples. There are lots of huge splits in specific demographics and weighting those incorrectly will throw off the overall poll quite a bit. I also think overall turnout (including early/absentee voting) will be record setting and if certain groups vote more or less than they usually do that will not be accurately reflected in polling.
In the moral, catatonic stupor America finds itself in today it is only disagreement we seek, and the more virulent that disagreement, the better.

RocketMan

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #193 on: October 09, 2020, 03:10:46 PM »
There are more D s  than Rs ,  but Ds are still over-sampled in many polls.  When it is said "over sampled,"  it means too many Ds are sampled in relation to their actual % of voters.  It doesn't mean the sampling should be 50 : 50 of each.

Yes, Democrats are indeed over-sampled in many polls.  But they are not over-sampled in many other polls.  You have to check the sampling percentages to know when it occurs.
I have not counted, but I suspect there is not as much over-sampling of Democrats as we might think.  Too many folks think polling should be 50% of each party to be fair.  Any poll sampled in that way is automatically invalid because the data is skewed.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

RocketMan

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #194 on: October 09, 2020, 03:12:39 PM »
I do think polling this election is going to be unusually difficult because of the importance of weighting those samples. There are lots of huge splits in specific demographics and weighting those incorrectly will throw off the overall poll quite a bit. I also think overall turnout (including early/absentee voting) will be record setting and if certain groups vote more or less than they usually do that will not be accurately reflected in polling.

All good points.  The ultimate poll is the one on Nov. 3, but even it will be suspect because of all the opportunities for fraud.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

MillCreek

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #195 on: October 09, 2020, 03:49:46 PM »
^^^I think it is interesting to see that this group largely believes that if Biden wins, it can only be through fraud, but if Trump wins, it can only be the Will of the People.  Huh.
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zxcvbob

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #196 on: October 09, 2020, 04:14:53 PM »
^^^I think it is interesting to see that this group largely believes that if Biden wins, it can only be through fraud, but if Trump wins, it can only be the Will of the People.  Huh.

If Trump wins, I think it's legit because the R's are too stupid or naïve to cheat.  If Biden wins, it may or may not be legit and we will never know; the D's cheat all the time.  They don't even try to hide it anymore.  (they could cheat and the outcome still be legitimate if the cheating wasn't significant, but we wouldn't know)
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RocketMan

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #197 on: October 09, 2020, 04:46:18 PM »
If Trump wins, I think it's legit because the R's are too stupid or naïve to cheat.  If Biden wins, it may or may not be legit and we will never know; the D's cheat all the time.  They don't even try to hide it anymore.  (they could cheat and the outcome still be legitimate if the cheating wasn't significant, but we wouldn't know).

Pretty much this.
If there really was intelligent life on other planets, we'd be sending them foreign aid.

Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

Liberals believe one should never let reason, logic and facts get in the way of a good emotional argument.

Perd Hapley

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #198 on: October 10, 2020, 01:17:14 AM »
If Trump wins, I think it's legit because the R's are too stupid or naïve to cheat.  If Biden wins, it may or may not be legit and we will never know; the D's cheat all the time.  They don't even try to hide it anymore.  (they could cheat and the outcome still be legitimate if the cheating wasn't significant, but we wouldn't know)


I would change that to the R's don't have legacy media or Soros on their side, but aside from that, I agree.

Also, say Republicans cheat the vote and win. Well, that will only balance out the way the Left games the system at everything from media, to mis-educating kids, to Operation Chokepoint, to...


The Left, even aside from their attempts to hack the vote directly, are stealing votes through the long con they've been running through the institutions. Doesn't make it OK for Republicans to cheat. Just a lot less worrisome if they do. And they're not Commie baby-killers, burning down your neighborhood, so there's that.
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WLJ

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Re: Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?
« Reply #199 on: November 03, 2020, 09:06:03 AM »
"Sometimes I think the surest sign that intelligent life exists elsewhere in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us".
- Calvin and Hobbes