Where do you place the odds of a 50 state sweep by Trump?

[MechAg94]

I can't speak to OR and WA, but after 58 years as a Californian, any changing of minds there will be to such a small degree that it won't matter. The entire coast there is brainwashed. There might be CA liberals buying guns for the first time right now because they are afraid of losing police, but they will still hate the police, whether they are antifa terrorists or six figure dual income Prius drivers who need to say the right things at the wine and cheese parties.

I have only to read the old hometown newspaper there to see how absolutely closed-minded they are. If their houses are burnded down by antifa, it will still be because of Trump.

IMO, you have to be careful about going by the newspapers.  If all you read was the big city newspapers in Texas, you would think it was solidly Democrat. 

That said, it doesn't take a great swing.  I think I heard that even in recent elections, the difference between D and R was only about 6%. 

I am not predicting anything but a solid win by Trump.  I think he will do better than 2016. 

[MechAg94]

I am curious what Trump and his team are trying to do as far as election fraud goes.  You have to know they are considering it and have been figuring ways to counter it for a while now.  Just curious.  I guess we will see how this all plays out in a few months.

[DittoHead]

There is still enough time before the election for a LOT to change. How Covid19\flu season progress along with school openings (or not) will be a big factor. There is potential for some REALLY good looking economic numbers - not that we'll regain all the lost ground but as a comparison to the spring & summer they could look amazing. All that being said, where we're at right now I think it's a very close race and I would expect the results to be pretty close to 2016. There has been movement since 2016 but I'm not sure the net change has been very big because a lot of it has no effect or is cancelled out by a similar change on the other side.

Based off people that I know (admittedly a small sample size)

• Reluctant Trump supporters have become more enthusiastic.
• Reluctant Hillary supporters have become more anti-Trump.
• No one who voted 3rd party is planning on doing so again.
• Most people who didn't vote, do plan to vote now (although I'm skeptical most will) and Biden has a slight lead there.

[Ben]

IMO, you have to be careful about going by the newspapers.  If all you read was the big city newspapers in Texas, you would think it was solidly Democrat. 

This is true, but I was exposed to these people most of my life, so I'm pretty confident of the trend. Plus the numbers are just overwhelmingly in favor of the left. People like me, if they are able, have moved versus trying to fight. When I was down there last week I learned of four families I knew well before I moved that said Newsom was the last straw, and off they all went, three of them to Texas.

[dogmush]

Based off people that I know (admittedly a small sample size)

• Reluctant Trump supporters have become more enthusiastic.
• Reluctant Hillary supporters have become more anti-Trump.
• No one who voted 3rd party is planning on doing so again.
• Most people who didn't vote, do plan to vote now (although I'm skeptical most will) and Biden has a slight lead there.

I am.  I don't support either of those philandering, immoral, aholes and continue to believe that the party line voters who year in and year out show up and pull "red/blue no matter who" are how we got into this mess.  If you never incentiveize the party offering a good candidate, they never will. YMMV.

[Hawkmoon]

Do you think events of the last 6 months have changed anyone's minds?  A lot of suburbanites in those West Coast cities have been scared rioting was coming out to their neighborhoods.  The local Democrat politicians weren't a lot of helps at least from my view. 

It may not matter since sometimes people are just stupid.  Also, the R alternative there might just suck worse. 

I think the past six months have changed the scene, but not the way you seem to think. Early in 2020 I was of the opinion that a Trump win was a lock. Then along came COVID-19, the federal government couldn't agree on a consistent, coordinated response or set of response parameters, the economy tanked, the national debt skyrocketed, ...

At this point I'm not even certain that Trump can win. I hope he does, because I fear a Biden-Harris administration, but it's very much not a lock any more. It's a horse race.

[lee n. field]

I already think he's going to win in a landslide and given what people are seeing from the left and the fact that blacks are not happy with the "defund the police" movement and therefore could vote for Trump despite not liking much else about him could swing the vote sufficient for Trump to win states that would usually be considered safely blue.

So I'm thinking he has at least a 50/50 chance of a sweep.

Ain't happening.

[Ron]

I am.  I don't support either of those philandering, immoral, aholes and continue to believe that the party line voters who year in and year out show up and pull "red/blue no matter who" are how we got into this mess.  If you never incentiveize the party offering a good candidate, they never will. YMMV.

Finding a candidate that isn't immoral and an a-hole will be a challenge.

You don't become President of the USA by being a nice guy who doesn't bend/break the rules.

I remember when Reagan being a divorcee was scandalous for a Republican nominee.  

Finding a nominee who isn't divorced or hasn't had an affair may be a challenge.

Democracies seem to reward those who are high in the Dark Triad traits as they are the ones who really really want to win and do what it takes to make sure it happens.

Maybe at one time the "deep state" reigned in those personalities but in my observation the deep state is also run by those with dark triad traits.

The main thing Trump has going for him is he doesn't seem to hate heritage Americans (or legal immigrants either for that matter).

The left has outed itself as actually hating America, it's founders, nearly half of the population, it's history and mythos.

Good luck on your unicorn hunt.  

For me it is either Trump or I'll just sit it out. I'm still sussing out how much of his shtick is genuine and how much is calculated.

I don't regret my vote for him one bit though. He pulled back the curtain for those who have the balls to actually look at the behind the scenes machinations.  

Just look at all the Republican cockroaches scurrying over to vote for Hillary or Biden. 

[just Warren]

I don't get why some of you think Trump is going to lose to...Joe Biden.

Biden?

He and Harris offer nothing.

In my town there I've still only seen one yard sign and one bumper sticker for Biden. Even at houses that have signs for other local D candidates there's no Biden signs. There is no enthusiasm for Biden.

The ratings for the DNC were dismal, people don't show up for his rallies. And picking Harris seems to have weakened him.

So unless D voter fraud is massive. To an extent they've not tried before there's no way Biden can win.

Of course Trump doesn't need to sweep to win but here's why I think he has a chance of it. Maybe even a good chance.

Trump has pulled to within the margin-of-error in the polling and that puts him ahead of where he was against Clinton.

There are a lot of new gun owners who are not going to vote for the candidate who is promising to take away their guns.

There are a lot on the left who are horrified at the riots and terrorism in their cities and want it stopped and see that the Ds in charge cannot or will not, and will not even ask for help. And they may, if they are aware enough, realize that it would only get worse under a Biden administration. So the only way to ensure it doesn't is to put their revulsion aside and vote for Trump.

As I mentioned, normal every-day, working-class black folks are getting the rawest deal out of these riots, it's their neighborhoods and businesses getting burned down. In overwhelming numbers they do not want the police defunded or abolished which is what the Ds at all levels stand for now. So there's another group to vote Trump.

Then there are the left/liberals of the #walkaway movement who have realized that their supposed comrades have been lying to them about Trump for the last four years.

I don't know how many of these folks there are but for every one that votes Trump makes it a two-vote swing towards him.

And lastly there are those on the R/conservative side who may not like Trump, may not have voted for him in 16 but will this time because the alternative is just so damn bad.

If they've been paying attention they will realize that for as bad as he can come off Trump has been unjustly treated by the opposition and the media. From the Russia hoax, to the Ukraine impeachment, to being blamed for making C-19 worse and all the little things that have been lied about.

They may dislike Trump but they hate the media/opposition and what is the best way to hurt them? Vote for Trump.  

It might just be enough of a swing for Trump to carry states that would have been unthinkable even a few months ago.

And it might be enough to flip the House as well.  

[RoadKingLarry]

I'm not convinced that the left will leave the fate of the country to the vagueries of voters.
The fraud machine is geared up and at full throttle. The afterburners are tuned up and in hot standby.
The left has shown they have no compunction against violent insurgency and it's not a long stretch to expect ever more violence leading up to the election.
Should Trump actually manage a win, what we've seen so far will be a walk in the park.  People are going to die on both sides.

[RocketMan]

I don't get why some of you think Trump is going to lose to...Joe Biden.

Biden?

He and Harris offer nothing.
Never underestimate the stupidity of the average American voter, (D) or (R).  Their votes are not based on rational analysis of the issues because that requires too much effort on their part.  They will pull the party lever because it's easier.

So unless D voter fraud is massive. To an extent they've not tried before there's no way Biden can win.
The DNC will pull out all the stops on voter fraud this election, far surpassing what they did in 2016.  They realize the mistake they made in believing their own polls then, and won't do that again in 2020.

Trump has pulled to within the margin-of-error in the polling and that puts him ahead of where he was against Clinton.
See the above on voter fraud.  Trump lost the popular vote by five million votes in 2016, most of those probably due to fraud.  The margin will be much larger in 2020.

There are a lot of new gun owners who are not going to vote for the candidate who is promising to take away their guns.
This won't matter a whit.  Guns have never be a solid overall deciding factor in any election, so far as I remember.

There are a lot on the left who are horrified at the riots and terrorism in their cities and want it stopped and see that the Ds in charge cannot or will not, and will not even ask for help. And they may, if they are aware enough, realize that it would only get worse under a Biden administration. So the only way to ensure it doesn't is to put their revulsion aside and vote for Trump.
There are many more on the left that are fully behind the "protests", far more than those that are "horrified", IMO.  They are happily consuming the leftist MSM propaganda about the protests being mostly peaceful.

As I mentioned, normal every-day, working-class black folks are getting the rawest deal out of these riots, it's their neighborhoods and businesses getting burned down. In overwhelming numbers they do not want the police defunded or abolished which is what the Ds at all levels stand for now. So there's another group to vote Trump.
His support among black voters will be higher than 2016, but not by enough to matter, IMO.

Then there are the left/liberals of the #walkaway movement who have realized that their supposed comrades have been lying to them about Trump for the last four years.

I don't know how many of these folks there are but for every one that votes Trump makes it a two-vote swing towards him.
See above concerning black voter support.  Most of these folks are outliers, there are not enough to matter.

And lastly there are those on the R/conservative side who may not like Trump, may not have voted for him in 16 but will this time because the alternative is just so damn bad.

If they've been paying attention they will realize that for as bad as he can come off Trump has been unjustly treated by the opposition and the media. From the Russia hoax, to the Ukraine impeachment, to being blamed for making C-19 worse and all the little things that have been lied about.

They may dislike Trump but they hate the media/opposition and what is the best way to hurt them? Vote for Trump.  

It might just be enough of a swing for Trump to carry states that would have been unthinkable even a few months ago.

And it might be enough to flip the House as well.
There were a lot of folks making this same prediction for the mid-terms in 2018.  We saw how well that turned out.

[K Frame]

" Guns have never be a solid overall deciding factor in any election, so far as I remember."

Most pundits, both left and right, give much of the credit for George Bush taking both West Virginia (first time a Republican had done so since 1984) AND Al Gore's home state of Tennessee (first time a candidate lost his home state since 1972) with backlash to the huge Democratic gun control push under Clinton, especially Gore's support of the "assault weapons ban."

Had Gore won Tennessee, Florida and all of its hanging chads would have been a moot point.

Democrats certain took that to heart as they downplayed gun control from the party platform for almost a dozen years before it started coming back hard.

Biden was also a BIG supporter of GCA 1994; he can be made vulnerable on that.

[charby]

I'm not even sure Trump will win, I think the electoral votes sre going to be a single digit difference.

[Hawkmoon]

I don't get why some of you think Trump is going to lose to...Joe Biden.

Biden?

He and Harris offer nothing.

In my town there I've still only seen one yard sign and one bumper sticker for Biden. Even at houses that have signs for other local D candidates there's no Biden signs. There is no enthusiasm for Biden.

I don't know where you live. I'm in the northeast, which means (virtually by definition) I'm in a blue town in a blue state. You've only seen one Biden yard sign? I finally saw one Trump sign -- about a week ago. I can't discuss politics with people I know because, with basically four exceptions (all in the same family), everyone I know is rabidly anti-Trump and pro whoever the Democrats put up.

And that's the bottom line. They won't be voting for Biden -- they'll be voting for the Democratic ticket. They've drunk the Kool-Aid, and they can't be reasoned with.

[WLJ]

I don't get why some of you think Trump is going to lose to...Joe Biden.

Biden?

It's not Trump vs Biden
It's Trump vs anyone who's not that racist bigoted earth hating dictator Trump guy the media keeps telling us about.

[Perd Hapley]

If I were on Trump's campaign, he'd be using this as a yard sign/t-shirt/whatever:

END FASCISM
FIGHT RACISM
VOTE TRUMP

[Ron]

I'm practically on the border of Cook County (home of Chicago) in Dupage County.

Dupage was one of those stalwart Republican counties holding the line in a blue state.

My Republican congress-critter is a never Trumper and democratic socialist in policy.

Trump supporters keep their heads down and mouths shut around here.

[RocketMan]

Do you think events of the last 6 months have changed anyone's minds?  A lot of suburbanites in those West Coast cities have been scared rioting was coming out to their neighborhoods.  The local Democrat politicians weren't a lot of helps at least from my view.  

It may not matter since sometimes people are just stupid.  Also, the R alternative there might just suck worse.

Often the R alternative is a throwaway candidate that receives little or no support from the Republican party. This is because the Republican leadership knows their candidates have no chance of winning in most solid blue left coast districts.

[Ron]

How can he possibly win? He's already lost the massive white nationalist voting block.

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/08/24/the-perfect-match-richard-spencer-yes-that-guy-says-hes-team-biden-and-democrats-all-the-way-now-they-can-have-him/

I cannot believe anyone ever fell for his act.

Years ago I ran across him online and my first thought was "this guys a Fed".

[MillCreek]

Often the R alternative is a throwaway candidate that receives little or no support from the Republican party. This is because the Republican leadership knows their candidates have no chance of winning in most solid blue left coast districts.

I characterize the Republican candidate for Washington governor as such.  The Repubs could not find anyone with a decent chance willing to run, since it is pretty much a done deal that Governor Inslee will be re-elected.  Enter Loren Culp, who runs a single-person police force in a 1200 person town in the remote forests of North Central Washington.  Since Washington state elections are generally decided by Seattle and King County, Mr. Culp will be back on the beat soon enough.

[Boomhauer]

There are people in this area who have the fantasy that Pelosi and Omar will be unseated and are sharing posts about their token Republican challengers.

[JN01]

I'm not convinced that the left will leave the fate of the country to the vagueries of voters.
The fraud machine is geared up and at full throttle. The afterburners are tuned up and in hot standby.
The left has shown they have no compunction against violent insurgency and it's not a long stretch to expect ever more violence leading up to the election.
Should Trump actually manage a win, what we've seen so far will be a walk in the park.  People are going to die on both sides.

I could easily see Antifa and BLM thugs wreaking havoc at polling places.

[WLJ]

 

BREAKING late Sunday – We’ve just learned that Antifa terrorist groups in Austin, Texas and Portland, Oregon have received a large cache of weapons that are being handed to them in preparation for a coordinated, multi-city uprising. Dubbed the “TET Offensive” by Dave Hodges (The Commonsense Show), this planned multi-city attack looks likely to take place before the coming election, as anti-American forces now realize Joe Biden cannot win. So their new goal is to unleash so much chaos across America that elections must be suspended, allowing the Marxist media to roll out its “Trump is a dictator” narrative.

This new delivery of weapons to Antifa forces on or around August 9th has been confirmed by reliable sources. It is consistent with previous announcements by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) describing government seizures of full-auto weapons parts and illegal suppressors that were intercepted during shipment from communist China to several U.S. cities, including Detroit MI, Louisville KY, and Melbourne FL.

Mike Adams: BREAKING: Antifa terrorists in Austin, Portland just received a large cache of weapons in preparation for coordinated multi-city “TET offensive” against America
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/08/mike-adams-breaking-antifa-terrorists-in-austin-portland-just-received-a-large-cache-of-weapons-in-preparation-for-coordinated-multi-city-tet-offensive-against-america/

[just Warren]

I just learned this, and this doesn't speak to a sweep, but Biden did not get a poll bump after the DNC.

That's only happened twice before, with McGovern and Kerry and both lost.

No one is feeling the Bidenergy.

Some polls from battle-ground states have Trump in the MoE but others are showing him with a huge lead. So what to believe there?

[French G.]

" Guns have never be a solid overall deciding factor in any election, so far as I remember."

Most pundits, both left and right, give much of the credit for George Bush taking both West Virginia (first time a Republican had done so since 1984) AND Al Gore's home state of Tennessee (first time a candidate lost his home state since 1972) with backlash to the huge Democratic gun control push under Clinton, especially Gore's support of the "assault weapons ban."

Had Gore won Tennessee, Florida and all of its hanging chads would have been a moot point.

Democrats certain took that to heart as they downplayed gun control from the party platform for almost a dozen years before it started coming back hard.

Biden was also a BIG supporter of GCA 1994; he can be made vulnerable on that.

Done correctly guns could make Virginia go red this year. It is not as blue as people want us to think and gun owners are a lot more fired up than they were a few years ago thanks to our blackface governor. A decent senate candidate also hopefully driving turnout.

In other news I believe that Tony Evers just handed Trump Wisconsin with his spineless pronouncements on Kenosha.