How To Deal With Iran & NK Nuke Programs

[Moondoggie]

I'm sure all of us from THR are aware of Halfast's fiction "Lights Out" where the US is crippled by a surprise EMP event that renders all electronics useless and fries the electrical supply system.

Recently, a gov't official gave a briefing about the dangers of an EMP attack.

Is there anybody who thinks that the US doesn't have an EMP attack capability??

Why don't "we" unleash an EMP device over North Korea and Iran?  I'm pretty sure it would be very difficult for them to continue with their nuke development programs when their countries are being run on flashlight batteries.  Probably be pretty hard for a totalinarian regime to maintain power when their gov't has been returned to a pre-industrial state of existence.  Works for me!  Besides, we could study the effects so that we could better prepare our own defensive capabilities/contingency planning.

The weapon would detonate in space...no invasion, no physical destruction, very limited loss of life, no "act of war"...let them whine to the UN.  The US can unilaterally veto anything the security council might come up with decades later...yawn.   We can always just deny that we did it, who's going to care anyway?

[RevDisk]

Why don't "we" unleash an EMP device over North Korea and Iran?  I'm pretty sure it would be very difficult for them to continue with their nuke development programs when their countries are being run on flashlight batteries.

Perhaps because it would be a nuclear attack.  Our standing doctrine is non-first strike.   We have stated since the 50's that we would never nuke anyone first (again), after seeing the long term damage done in Japan.  There are many good reasons for this policy.

If we nuked (even 'safe' supposedly EMP only nukes) NK and/or Iran, expect a major US city to be nuked in retaliation.   And don't expect our allies to be very supportive if the US gets nuked after we first-strike some country without direct provocation.

Oh yes, and the even better part is that said EMP strike would wipe out a good number of our satellites.  Explain this to all the corporations that donate millions to the campaign funds of many/most US politicians, the lawsuits would be flying like no tomorrow.   As well as the satellites of many friendly and neutral countries.  Try explaining to dozens of foreign countries why their satellites worth tens of millions a pop are now space trash.   When we tell them to buzz off, expect retaliation.  Perhaps not bombs, but maybe economic wars.  Or maybe they give EMP weapons to terrorist groups who want to attack America.


Or ignore reality and blame it on the hippy left-wing media being peacemongering totalitarian Communists!  

[Standing Wolf]

Our standing doctrine is non-first strike.   We have stated since the 50's that we would never nuke anyone first (again), after seeing the long term damage done in Japan.

I think I've just spotted the problem.

Waiting for the criminal to shoot you before drawing your gun isn't the smartest approach to crime fighting.

[Justin]

Kim Jong Il is a megalomaniacal, off-kilter psychotic nutbag in the grandest tradition of any James Bond villain.  Taking any action against him that could be traced back to the US, or used to whip his starved populace into a frenzy might very well send them all spilling southward over the 38th Parallel.

You know how Scientology is a cult built around the personality of L. Ron Hubbard?

North Korea is just like that.  Except about 5,000 times worse.  The North Koreans have been starving for the better part of two decades, and ever since the end of the Korean war they've been bombarded with propaganda telling them that it's all the fault of the decadent USA and their puppets in South Korea.

More than likely Kim Jong Il wants nukes to use as some sort of bargaining chip, but he is, quite frankly, both desperate and crazy enough to use them if he thinks he can get away with it.

Barring the death of The Great Leader and a serious case of internal regime restructuring, the North Korean situation will remain a very tense standoff for the forseeable future.

[Antibubba]

Part of what makes EMP so devastating is the effect it has on modern electronics.  Most reports from the few Western visitors who've been there is that NK society does not depend on those components.   The military may have some, but they have to get them from outside the country, and no doubt the most important stuff is hardened.  But the bulk of there society(such as it is) would keep going on as it does now.

[Moondoggie]

RevDisk...I don't think it would be considered a "nuclear attack" since the weapon would be in space with no physical damage on the ground.  Nothing but undetectable electromagnetic radiation would enter their "soverign territory".  As far as retaliation goes, don't you think Iran plans to attack us anyway...probably via a terorist delivery system?  If not us, then definately Israel.  I'd be willing to bet that most sattelites would survive given the high radiation levels in space anyway.

Antibubba...my point exactly.  The general population would keep on keepin' on while their horsecrap regeime would be scrambled; blind, deaf, and dumb.  Their gov't will be operating with abacus, paper, and pencil...their ability to "trace" anything back to anybody will be nonexistent.  Besides, would anybody in the rest of the world be shedding any tears over their "misfortune"?

Justin...As far as the NK people attacking SK en masse because of some sort of self-induced frenzy...I doubt it.  Their system is based upon ironclad central control and their command and control system would be using the pony express.  I seriously doubt that their more sophisticated weaons systems would be functional.  The first thing their army would encounter at the DMZ is about 3 million land mines.  Remember that the NK's would be attacking UN troops, not a good move.

I still see green lights all the way down the highway.

[BrokenPaw]

Moondoggie,

Even with all political issues aside, EMP from a space-based detonation is unfeasible, for no other reason than sheer physics.  EMP is just a powerful burst of radiation, and radiation's strength at a given point declines with the square of the distance from the source.   To affect ground-based, non-hardened electronics from a space-based explosion, say 100 miles up, you'd have to have an EMP burst 10,000 times as big as you'd need to affect them from a 1-mile-high air burst, or 100 times as big as you'd need to affect them from 10 miles away.

This is just not practical.  Additionally, when you factor in atmospheric disruption of the EMP burst, you have to deal with the fact that the EMP that goes up and out is going to be effectively stronger than the EMP that goes down.  Which means that if you're killing things 100 miles below you in North Korea, you're also killing everything electronic within at least 100 miles of you in space.  As RevDisk pointed out, this is likely to make a number of large corporations fairly (and understandably) cranky.

Further,  if you manage to make a burst big enough to zorch every electronic device in North Korea, you're going to be scragging much of South Korea, and quite a bit of Russia as well.  SK and Russian might take exception to that.  Gods, if you calculated even a bit wrong, you'd get parts of northern Japan, too.  Bad, from a political standpoint, especially given that if we did anything nuclear that affected Japan, the worldwide spin would be "they did it in World War II, and now they've done it again."  Double bad.

I'm afraid that space-based targeted EMP is likely to be a non-starter.

-BP

[RevDisk]

I think I've just spotted the problem.

Waiting for the criminal to shoot you before drawing your gun isn't the smartest approach to crime fighting.

We don't shoot people because they might be threats.  We only shoot people under very specific circumstances.  So, yes, we wait until the criminal is trying to kill us before we shoot back.  

RevDisk...I don't think it would be considered a "nuclear attack" since the weapon would be in space with no physical damage on the ground.  Nothing but undetectable electromagnetic radiation would enter their "soverign territory".  As far as retaliation goes, don't you think Iran plans to attack us anyway...probably via a terorist delivery system?  If not us, then definately Israel.  I'd be willing to bet that most sattelites would survive given the high radiation levels in space anyway.

So, employing nuclear weapons that do damage (EMP, fallout, etc) is actually not a nuclear attack causing no damage.   Righto.  Makes perfect sense to me.   Iran has attacked us, and we have attacked Iran.   Thus far, we have not up'd the game into the nuclear realm.  Doing so is not a wise idea.

Electromagnetic radiation is very detectable, by the way.  There are very sensitive EM equipment all over the world for monitoring atmospheric radiation, solar flares, etc etc.   Plus, all the satellites falling out of the sky would be a pretty clear indication of an EMP blast.  And no, satellites cannot survive a massive EMP spike from any sizable nuclear blast nearby.


Israel already has nukes.  Some estimate between 100 and 200 of them.  They have quietly let it be known if Israel falls (by invasion, by nuking), they will wipe out Muslim cities in the Middle East starting with Mecca.   They have warheads for the Jericho-1 and Jericho-2 missiles, as well as aircraft dropped munitions.  


Oh yea.  Any support I had for Israel died with the USS Liberty.  On  June 8, 1967, the USS Liberty was attacked for 75 minutes in international waters by Israeli aircraft and motor torpedo boats.  34 men died and 172 were wounded.   With allies like that, who needs enemies?

Antibubba...my point exactly.  The general population would keep on keepin' on while their horsecrap regeime would be scrambled; blind, deaf, and dumb.  Their gov't will be operating with abacus, paper, and pencil...their ability to "trace" anything back to anybody will be nonexistent.  Besides, would anybody in the rest of the world be shedding any tears over their "misfortune"?

Uh, who do you think they would blame if all the lights when out?   The Canadians perhaps?

You wouldn't just be disabling the nuclear research facilties.  (Though, I seriously doubt a single EMP strike from a mid range nuclear weapon would completely scram a hardened underground facility.  There are defenses against EMP.  I ain't saying, but Google probably could.)   You'd be taking out hospitals, lights, civvie vehicles, etc.  Possibly even water and sewage facilities also.  

And yes, some of the rest of the world would be annoyed.  Bordering countries that lost most of their electronics, countries that have satellites, etc.   Folks also might start pondering, "If they are willing to nuke a country that hasn't significantly attacked the US recently, who might they start nuking without justification next?"  

Justin...As far as the NK people attacking SK en masse because of some sort of self-induced frenzy...I doubt it.  Their system is based upon ironclad central control and their command and control system would be using the pony express.  I seriously doubt that their more sophisticated weaons systems would be functional.  The first thing their army would encounter at the DMZ is about 3 million land mines.  Remember that the NK's would be attacking UN troops, not a good move.

The AK platform is immune to EMP.  So are crew served weapons and RPG's.  


Mano, people that advocate nuking first are like people that advocate that the US adopt more fascist behavior and government.   Be careful what you wish for, you might just get it.

[Moondoggie]

Physics, reality......DARN!

I hear you guys...good points.

I'm not thinking of the EMP generation device so much as a nuclear weapon from the standpoint of the absence of physical destruction or sending a missle into another country.

I'm thinking/wishing that there was a way to deal a decisive blow to these "Axis of Evil" folks using our advantage in technology.  Limiting the loss of life would be nice, too.

Japan...I'd think they'd be glad for us to do something since NK keeps testing missles in their direction.

Facism, aggression....not good.  Watching these "Death to America" factions until they actually mount a sneak attack (as they've done in the past) is worse.  They've stated their objective, and demonstrated their willingness to act.  The USS Liberty incident...who among us really knows what the real deal was?  The Israeli's "get it"..they're in a fight for survival and they're not gonna let any silly little rules put them at a disadvantage.  They understand "Never Again".  The US hasn't gotten to that point, yet.  I think our time is coming unless we take action.   We can't even get our gov't to control our border with Mexico...wouldn't be PC.  Let a few dozen suicide bombers hit some of our malls, schools, churchs and see what happens to our attitude.

Diplomacy is only effective when you're dealing with folks who share your basic values.  Or have any values at all.

Sun Tzu, Machiavelli, whatever...the only way to gain the respect OF SOME PEOPLE is through fear.  If you're in a fight against folks who use dirty/nasty tactics and will DO ANYTHING to win, you're not gonna prevail in a dress uniform with your white gloves on.

[RevDisk]

I'm not thinking of the EMP generation device so much as a nuclear weapon from the standpoint of the absence of physical destruction or sending a missle into another country.

Regardless of how it is rigged to blow, it's still a nuclear weapon.  And regardless of how it is rigged to blow, it WILL cause damage.  It's a freakin nuke, for Buddha's sake!   Whatcha expect it to do?  Somehow magically know how to disable all 'bad' nukes, and somehow magically miss friendly countries, friendly/neutral satellites, etc?  Oh yea, and somehow not create fallout.

Physics is physics.  Can't get around it, regardless of political desires.

I'm thinking/wishing that there was a way to deal a decisive blow to these "Axis of Evil" folks using our advantage in technology.  Limiting the loss of life would be nice, too.

Human nature is human nature.  Of course, not putting the Shah in power probably would have helped our PR problem in Iran.

Japan...I'd think they'd be glad for us to do something since NK keeps testing missles in their direction.

By and large, the Japanese hate all Koreans.  I asked a buddy of mine to explain it to me once.  After five minutes, I still didn't understand the concept.  Just one of those things to remember, I suppose.

Still, they would be rather annoyed at having billions of dollars worth of equipment now turned into expensive paperweights.

Facism, aggression....not good.  Watching these "Death to America" factions until they actually mount a sneak attack (as they've done in the past) is worse.  They've stated their objective, and demonstrated their willingness to act.  The USS Liberty incident...who among us really knows what the real deal was?  The Israeli's "get it"..they're in a fight for survival and they're not gonna let any silly little rules put them at a disadvantage.  They understand "Never Again".  The US hasn't gotten to that point, yet.  I think our time is coming unless we take action.   We can't even get our gov't to control our border with Mexico...wouldn't be PC.  Let a few dozen suicide bombers hit some of our malls, schools, churchs and see what happens to our attitude.

Yes, regarding the USS Liberty.  

IDF aircraft circled the ship all of the previous night, and announced over the radio that they positively identified the Liberty as a US ship.   Just in case, the officer of the deck made sure a brand spanking new US flag was put up and made sure it was clearly visable.  Previous to the attack, IDF fighters circled the ship 13 times.  They then proceeded to hit the two .50 cals, the life boats and the radio towers.  Maybe you're right.  Maybe the entire crew of the USS Liberty are liars.  Maybe the radio transmissions are forged.  Maybe Congress was lying when they gave the captain of the USS Liberty the Medal of Honor.  


Still, it rather unnerves me that our government is so friendly with a country that murders US civilians and military folks, as well as spying on our citizens and law enforcement folks inside the US.  

Yep, murdering US citizens and US servicepersons are such "silly little rules" that should be overlooked.

[Sean Smith]

"I'm not thinking of the EMP generation device so much as a nuclear weapon from the standpoint of the absence of physical destruction or sending a missle into another country."

You you are assuming that a nut will be reasonable about a nuke going off over his head, when he isn't reasonable about anything else?  Say what?

[Sean Smith]

Still, it rather unnerves me that our government is so friendly with a country that murders US civilians and military folks, as well as spying on our citizens and law enforcement folks inside the US.  

Yep, murdering US citizens and US servicepersons are such "silly little rules" that should be overlooked.

Break out the tin foil hats?

What, exactly, did Israel have to gain by deliberately attacking the U.S. Navy, in the middle of a war with a half dozen Arab countries?  Um... nothing?  It was exactly contrary to their interests to do so.  Which is a pretty strong hint that the attack wasn't deliberate.  Since their entire grand strategy for the war depended on the US acting as a curb on the Soviet response to their preemptive attacks, the notion that they knowlingly attacked a US Navy vessel seems deeply silly.

Of course, ignoring the 10 or so US inquiries, which all concluded that the attack was not deliberate, is just par for the course, right?  And if the Israelis planned in advance to deliberately attack the Liberty, why didn't they have any proper anti-ship munitions on the planes?  I'm pretty sure IAF doctrine wasn't to try to sink a large warship with napalm, unless they thought the Liberty was made of wood?

So, to conclude: in the middle of winning one of the most brilliant military victories in history, the Israelis spontaneously became so mentally retarded that they deliberatey attacked a vital ally, with their premeditation including the deliberate use of munitions that suck at sinking ships?  

The Israelis decided, for no apparent reason, to act completely against their self-interests, this being the exact opposite of their habit to act almost exclusively on the basis of their self-interests.

The Israelis, in making this decision, were completely premeditated, but in their premeditation were so stupid that they didn't know what kind of weapons to mount on their aircraft to sink a boat, even though the salient characteristic of their advanced planning for everything else about the war was its high degree of competence.

Huh?

[RevDisk]

Of course, ignoring the 10 or so US inquiries, which all concluded that the attack was not deliberate, is just par for the course, right?  And if the Israelis planned in advance to deliberately attack the Liberty, why didn't they have any proper anti-ship munitions on the planes?  I'm pretty sure IAF doctrine wasn't to try to sink a large warship with napalm, unless they thought the Liberty was made of wood?

So, to conclude: in the middle of winning one of the most brilliant military victories in history, the Israelis spontaneously became so mentally retarded that they deliberatey attacked a vital ally, with their premeditation including the deliberate use of munitions that suck at sinking ships?  

The Israelis decided, for no apparent reason, to act completely against their self-interests, this being the exact opposite of their habit to act almost exclusively on the basis of their self-interests.

The Israelis, in making this decision, were completely premeditated, but in their premeditation were so stupid that they didn't know what kind of weapons to mount on their aircraft to sink a boat, even though the salient characteristic of their advanced planning for everything else about the war was its high degree of competence.

Huh?

Ok, so me and the Secretary of State at the time must have been tin foil'ers?

Either it was deliberate, so a showing of incompotence that is nearly insane.   Considering how many times IDF fighters previous confirmed that the ship was American....




--------------------------------

The Secretary of State presents his compliments to His Excellency the Ambassador of Israel and has the honor to refer to the Ambassador's note of June 10, 1967, concerning the attack by Israeli aircraft and torpedo boats on the United States naval vessel U.S.S. Liberty, which was carried out at 1605 and 1625 hours local time [sic], respectively, on June 8, 1967, while the U.S.S. Liberty was engaged in peaceful activities in international waters.

At the time of the attack, the U.S.S. Liberty was flying the American flag and its identification was clearly indicated in large white letters and numerals on its hull. It was broad daylight and the weather conditions were excellent. Experience demonstrates that both the flag and the identification number of the vessel were readily visible from the air. At 1450 hours local time [sic] on June 8, 1967, two Israeli aircraft circled the U.S.S. Liberty three times, with the evident purpose of identifying the vessel. Accordingly, there is every reason to believe that the U.S.S. Liberty was identified, or at least her nationality determined, by Israeli aircraft approximately one hour before the attack. In these circumstances, the later military attack by Israeli aircraft on the U.S.S. Liberty is quite literally incomprehensible. [At] a minimum, the attack must be condemned as an act of military recklessness reflecting wanton disregard for human life.

The subsequent attack by Israeli torpedo boats, substantially after the vessel was or should have been identified by Israeli military forces, manifests the same reckless disregard for human life. The silhouette and conduct of U.S.S. Liberty readily distinguished it from any vessel that could have been considered hostile. The U.S.S. Liberty was peacefully engaged, posed no threat whatsoever to the torpedo boats, [and] obviously carried no armament affording it a combat capability. It could and should have been scrutinized visually at close range before torpedoes were fired.

While the Ambassador of Israel has informed the Secretary of State that 'the government of Israel is prepared to make amends for the tragic loss of life and material damage,' the Secretary of State wishes to make clear that the United States Government expects the Government of Israel also to take disciplinary measures which international law requires in the event of wrongful conduct by the military personnel of a State. He wishes also to make clear that the United States Government expects the government of Israel to issue instructions necessary to ensure that United States personnel and properly will not again be endangered by the wrongful actions of military personnel.

The United States Government expects that the Government of Israel will provide compensation in accordance with international law to the extent that it is possible to compensate for the losses sustained in this tragic event. The Department of State will, in the near future, present to the Government of Israel a full monetary statement of its claim.

Washington, D.C.
June 10, 1967

-------------------------

Israel claims they mistook the Liberty for the out-of-service Egyptian horse carrier El Quseir and that we brought the attack upon ourselves by operating in a war zone without displaying a flag.   (We were in international water, and flying a US flag the entire time.)

Incidently, the USS Liberty is 455 feet in length, displacing 10,680 tons.   El Quseir was 275 feet in length, displacing 2,750 tons.  Bit of a difference.  They also don't look very similiar in my opinion.  

The napalm incidently was used to take out the lifeboats first, plus the two .50 cal mounts and the radios.  Napalm happens to be very effective against lifeboats, .50 cals and radio equipment.  Afterwards, they used torpedos.  Much more effective at actually sinking ships.

The US Navy had one, not "10 or so", Court of Inquiry, which was rather short.  It didn't clear the Israelis either, it merely said the Israelis did not clearly establish hostile intent.   The Navy never had a full Court of Inquiry investigation, nor did it review communications intercepts and various other evidence.   The US has never officially accepted the explanation or excuses offered by Israel, and the only official position is the one I posted above.

Anything else?   I was hoping you'd also call me a tin foil'er for my claims that the Israeli's are wiretapping US LEO's.

Edit : What the hey, here's the coverage anyways.  From Fox News.    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article5133.htm

Anyways, enough about Israel.  Let's go back to discussing illogical uses of nuclear weapons.

[jefnvk]

SO, why didn't the ship shoot back?

As for NK, I think waiting until more facts are lined up is the right thing to do right now.  An EMP over Kim Jong's head could knock some sense ito him.  More likely, it'll provoke him doing something incredibly stupid.  He has numerous targets to do stupid things to.  S. Korea, Russia, China, Japan.  What happens, if after EMPing NK, he nukes Vladivostok?  That'd just make a bad situtation a whole lot worse.

The disadvantage of dealing with a crazy guy, is you have no idea what is going to go down.