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Question: What will win the presidency in 2020?
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Someone... else?

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Author Topic: Who will win in 2020?  (Read 2784 times)
fistful
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« Reply #50 on: October 06, 2020, 09:41:37 AM »

It will be hard for me to believe a Biden victory. Think about it. If Trump was going to lose, he should have lost in 16, when Literally Everyone said he would enslave all the brown people, and make the women handmaids, and nuke China. After 4 years of solid accomplishments, even with a lot of chaos, he should be getting a lot more votes. The Democrats aren't more enthused this time. They aren't more united. They are even less attractive to the moderates and undecideds.


I think Trump's already marginal chance of being re-elected was further diminished by his catching the beer virus.  I do not believe it gained him many sympathy votes.  It likely turned a bunch of single-issue (COVID) voters that previously agreed with his leadership on the pandemic against him.  There are many voters out there that are unreasonably afraid over the issue.

I would have to have that one explained to me. If anything, Trump's experience with covid thus far vindicates him. As he just finished saying, we shouldn't live in fear. We're going to beat it. So far, he hasn't lived in fear and he is beating it.
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« Reply #51 on: October 06, 2020, 09:46:49 AM »

Think about it. If Trump was going to lose, he should have lost in 16, when Literally Everyone said he would enslave all the brown people, and make the women handmaids, and nuke China.

According to the media, Dims, and Hollywood elites it's two down one to go
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« Reply #52 on: October 06, 2020, 10:08:08 AM »

I would have to have that one explained to me. If anything, Trump's experience with covid thus far vindicates him. As he just finished saying, we shouldn't live in fear. We're going to beat it. So far, he hasn't lived in fear and he is beating it.

I agree, a voter that is not living in a state of unreasonable fear of the beer virus would see Trump's recovery as vindication.  However, too many voters have an unreasonable fear of the virus, and those are the ones Trump will lose.
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« Reply #53 on: October 06, 2020, 10:36:16 AM »

However, too many voters have an unreasonable fear of the virus, and those are the ones Trump will lose.
Trump was always behind with suburban women, but if he loses seniors anywhere close to what recent polls are showing that will cost him the election. Those are 2 groups that consistently vote and his numbers with both groups seem to be getting worse.
National and swing-state polls in the last week show an exodus among voters 65 and older from Trump to Biden, an alarming sign for the president after NBC News exit polls showed he won that crucial Republican-leaning cohort by 8 points in 2016.

A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found Biden leading Trump by 14 points, his largest advantage ever in the survey. Among seniors 65 and older, Biden led by a startling 27 points, marking a 23-point swing in his direction in one month.
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« Reply #54 on: October 06, 2020, 10:46:43 AM »

If polls were elections this election would be Hillary going for her 2nd term.
Weren't the dems polling way ahead in 2000 and 2004?
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« Reply #55 on: October 06, 2020, 11:46:58 AM »

The only thing Biden has going in his favor over Hillary is that she was "Ugh!", and he's just "meh".
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« Reply #56 on: October 06, 2020, 11:53:52 AM »

I have think I have a new preferred outcome. Trump loses but wins the popular by a yuge margin. Two years of dysfunctional and then a congressional housecleaning.  Popcorn Popcorn

Wouldn’t help but he country of course but I want to see the usual suspects defend the electoral college.
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« Reply #57 on: October 06, 2020, 12:00:56 PM »

I agree, a voter that is not living in a state of unreasonable fear of the beer virus would see Trump's recovery as vindication.  However, too many voters have an unreasonable fear of the virus, and those are the ones Trump will lose.

But you were talking about voters switching from Trump to Biden because he caught the virus. How does that work? Are they voting for whoever has some magical immunity juice?
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« Reply #58 on: October 06, 2020, 12:10:09 PM »

I never said they would be switching to Biden, fistful.  They could just as easily stay home or not vote for either presidential candidate.
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“Don’t be so open-minded that your brains fall out.” - G.K. Chesterton

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How many Democrats does it take to fix a problem?  No one knows because it's never happened.
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« Reply #59 on: October 06, 2020, 05:03:38 PM »

I don't think he can beat the margin of fraud.
I think Biden Harris will win by a razor thin margin and we're all *expletive deleted*ed.
I also don't think we will know the final outcome for weeks or longer while all the "found" votes get counted after election night.
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« Reply #60 on: October 09, 2020, 07:34:02 AM »

Unfortunately I think Biden/Harris is going to win, because of this I moved about 30% of my investments over to an guarenteed rate funds at the advisement of one of my financial advisers.
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« Reply #61 on: October 09, 2020, 07:39:51 AM »

Unfortunately I think Biden/Harris is going to win, because of this I moved about 30% of my investments over to an guarenteed rate funds at the advisement of one of my financial advisers.

While I'm keeping my index funds at Vanguard where they are, I was looking at moving all my stock indexes in the TSP into the treasury fund until after the election for just in case.  I still think Trump will win, but I also believe they will "resist" and not accept election results. Stocks will take a big hit, if only temporarily. My TSP stock funds are way up this year, so I'd be doing end of year reallocation anyway.
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« Reply #62 on: October 09, 2020, 08:07:38 AM »

Unfortunately I think Biden/Harris is going to win, because of this I moved about 30% of my investments over to an guarenteed rate funds at the advisement of one of my financial advisers.
About a week ago I moved 37.5% out of index funds. 
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« Reply #63 on: October 09, 2020, 08:42:21 AM »

A tie in the EC doesn't seem like that far fetched of a possibility either.

That's the 2016 map with just MI, PA, and ME2 flipped
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« Reply #64 on: October 09, 2020, 08:48:56 AM »

I seem to recall most projections had Hillary in the mid 300s
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« Reply #65 on: October 09, 2020, 01:20:04 PM »

I seem to recall most projections propaganda had Hillary in the mid 300s
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« Reply #66 on: October 11, 2020, 07:51:19 AM »

Interesting graphics:

https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2020/10/11/beware-must-read-thread-of-actual-numbers-versus-polling-in-2016-compared-to-2020-will-terrify-journos-and-democrats/
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« Reply #67 on: October 11, 2020, 08:31:09 AM »

I do hope Trump wings.  However, the thing I was most hoping for from a second Trump term was a replacement for Ginsberg.  So, it looks like I may be getting my wish anyway.

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« Reply #68 on: October 11, 2020, 08:37:00 AM »

I do hope Trump wings. 

Yes. It is time for him to emerge from his cocoon, fully-formed and able to fly so he can terrify the left even more by swooping down upon them when they least expect it.
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« Reply #69 on: October 11, 2020, 08:56:59 AM »


That's nice, but peeps gotta go do the votins' for it to matter.

If Dem turnout is higher than expected than the comparison to 2016 won't matter.

On the other hand, there is a survey that shows that Dems are far more worried about the Coof than are Reps and thus might not show up at the polls and will vote by mail. But that sort of voting has a high rate of ballots being rejected for various reasons so the Dems might lose a lot of votes both in numbers and as a percentage.
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« Reply #70 on: October 11, 2020, 09:32:06 AM »

. . .  On the other hand, there is a survey that shows that Dems are far more worried about the Coof than are Reps and thus might not show up at the polls and will vote by mail. But that sort of voting has a high rate of ballots being rejected for various reasons so the Dems might lose a lot of votes both in numbers and as a percentage.
Dems are gearing to to practice lawfare in multiple states. If you thought spur of the moment recounts and legal wrangling in ONE state (Florida) was a travesty in Bush vs Gore . . . just wait until you see what the Dems have already prepared for across a broad swath of states. (Just imagine Chicago style vote manufacture across the entire country.)
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« Reply #71 on: October 11, 2020, 03:07:52 PM »

I'm expecting a repeat performance of the Philadelphia Black Panther voter intimidation campaign, in several swing municipalities, sponsored by BLM/Antifa.
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« Reply #72 on: October 12, 2020, 08:11:09 AM »

If Dem turnout is higher than expected than the comparison to 2016 won't matter.
What is "expected"?
The 2018 midterm turnout was the highest in something like 50 years, I would expect record turnout on both sides.
I would also note that the midterm predictions were very accurate.
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« Reply #73 on: October 12, 2020, 08:43:36 AM »

What is "expected"?
The 2018 midterm turnout was the highest in something like 50 years, I would expect record turnout on both sides.
I would also note that the midterm predictions were very accurate.

It all hinges on whether there is actually a motivated MAGA minority vote.

Caucasians are pretty solidified into the leftist self loathing, brains addled by critical race theory (cultural Marxism) and Democratic Socialism (economic Marxism) on one side, and the what happened to my old America? Wait, we're America, we're the good guys! Let's change slower! a little less leftist on the other side.  

Actual Republicans of the right are far and few in between. Of course I do live in a county that recently flipped from R to D as the Dupage County Republicans were incapable of even conserving their own gravy train. JFK is a PaleoCon compared to most Republicans around here. So I'm jaded.

So, we will see if Trump can peel off more than a single digit of Blacks or if he will pull in more than a third of the "natural conservative" Americans of Mexican heritage.

As far as the Wealthy Rulers who are running and have run the country previously, Trump represents the better option.

He at the minimum gives lip service to some Republican and "conservative" issues.

I don't get the impression he actually hates me or my religion so that's good.

His judges will probably still sell us out but not at the breakneck speed as the leftist crazy train would.

2018 was a tough election. A lot of Republicans retired from office and the Russian collusion gaslighting project still had a head of steam.





  
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« Reply #74 on: October 12, 2020, 12:43:50 PM »

Trump's latest campaign message.   

Quote
Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
California is going to hell. Vote Trump!

https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2020/10/12/nailed-it-president-trump-has-a-very-solid-campaign-message-for-californians/
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