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Author Topic: Early Voting Statistics  (Read 418 times)
Ben
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« on: October 18, 2020, 06:00:48 AM »

Has anyone found any at least semi-unbiased sources for early voting statistics? Other than agreement that the numbers are pretty staggering compared to previous years, depending on the source, it's either dems coming out in big numbers and Biden is now a shoe-in, or it's Rs coming out and it shows the polls are full of crap.

There seem to be many more sources saying that it's mostly dems voting early. I could actually see that, as they are more into mail-in voting and of course there is the big "get out the vote" thing on the dem side. Also, I think Rs are more inclined to vote in person (I'm not one of them and just voted myself), so  I could see a lot more Rs coming out on election day, or earlier in states where in-person voting starts earlier.

Anyway, I would be curious to see current stats if there are some somewhat unbiased stats available.
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MikeB
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2020, 06:09:41 AM »

Has anyone found any at least semi-unbiased sources for early voting statistics? Other than agreement that the numbers are pretty staggering compared to previous years, depending on the source, it's either dems coming out in big numbers and Biden is now a shoe-in, or it's Rs coming out and it shows the polls are full of crap.

There seem to be many more sources saying that it's mostly dems voting early. I could actually see that, as they are more into mail-in voting and of course there is the big "get out the vote" thing on the dem side. Also, I think Rs are more inclined to vote in person (I'm not one of them and just voted myself), so  I could see a lot more Rs coming out on election day, or earlier in states where in-person voting starts earlier.

Anyway, I would be curious to see current stats if there are some somewhat unbiased stats available.

I don’t have a link handy, but one of the articles on this was specifically for some battleground states and showed that dems and republicans  were returning mail in ballots in about the same numbers. About 40% each if I recall correctly. That leaves ~20% of course and since the ballots are not actually counted yet, those numbers are just based on registrations there probably isn’t any real goof data and it would just be spun by either side their way.
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2020, 06:13:12 AM »

I'm going to assume the polls are BS, and there's no way to know real early voting stats.
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2020, 04:44:55 PM »

I was never concerned about the ballot drop off box which is in the driveway to the police station with its surveillance system.  Mail-in wise, according to the local soothsayers, Colorado's got a pretty good system.  I don't know what makes it so, but that's what they're saying.

But the way things have been going, I'd recommend nobody concedes until the Courts finish their voting. <eyeroll>
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2020, 05:55:45 PM »

I'm going to assume the polls are BS, and there's no way to know real early voting stats.
The exit polls have been worthless for quite some time. 
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MillCreek
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2020, 08:42:10 PM »

We received our ballots on Friday, filled them out on Saturday, and I will be dropping them in the mail on Monday the 19th. I read in the local media that the ballot drop boxes are already getting a workout.
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2020, 03:43:12 AM »

I'll be voting in person to eliminate potential middle men interfering with my vote.

Trusting the USPS to actually faithfully deliver your vote, particularly in this political climate, seems a bit optimistic.


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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2020, 05:09:52 AM »

The last unbiased analyst went fly fishing in Montana in the middle of a pandemic and hasn’t been seen since.
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What we have here is failure to communicate.
MillCreek
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2020, 05:28:37 AM »

I'll be voting in person to eliminate potential middle men interfering with my vote.

Trusting the USPS to actually faithfully deliver your vote, particularly in this political climate, seems a bit optimistic.

Washington has been voting by mail only for decades, and the USPS doesn't seem to have a problem with ballots being mailed.  But I have at times also dropped the ballots in the drop box at the local library if I happened to be going to the library.
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Ben
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2020, 05:46:22 AM »

I guess I'm a fence-sitter on early/mail-in voting.

I actually like and have used absentee ballots wherever I've lived because I hate being around people and waiting in lines. I also like sitting in front of my computer with my ballot as I research propositions and local seats that I am not familiar with, so that I can make a good decision. Here in Idaho they minimize the crap they try to throw on ballots, so voting is relatively fast, but in CA, with all their propositions and commie pinko government growth, it often took me several hours to vote.

I am 100% in favor of voter ID, and I think that it needs to be improved for mail-in absentee voting. Also voter ID security, so that other people can't log into my online information with simply my name and birth date.

I don't think I like these ballot drop-off boxes, as depending on the area, many of them seem to be in uncontrolled locations. I happen to trust USPS in my area to get my ballot where it's going. Otherwise, I would be in favor of drop-off boxes if they were in controlled locations, like police stations, county/city gov buildings, etc. Somewhere that someone monitors them.

Anyway, I'm mostly in favor of mail-in, as long as it is strictly controlled. Not just for my curmudgeonly ass, but for elderly, handicapped and others that can't easily get to a polling place. That said, if all mail-in voting went away completely, I wouldn't have a problem with in-person voting as long as a blizzard doesn't shut down the road between me and my voting location. Smiley
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DittoHead
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2020, 05:48:35 AM »

Most states have an easy way to track your ballot. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-track-the-status-of-your-mail-in-ballot-2020-9
There are certainly problems that could happen after a ballot is delivered, but USPS failing to deliver is pretty low on my list of concerns.
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RocketMan
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2020, 06:06:19 AM »

Most states have an easy way to track your ballot. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-track-the-status-of-your-mail-in-ballot-2020-9
There are certainly problems that could happen after a ballot is delivered, but USPS failing to deliver is pretty low on my list of concerns.

And what can someone do about their ballot if they find it has gone astray, especially close to Nov. 3?  Little or nothing would be my guess, especially in states that only have mail-in voting.
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2020, 06:06:51 AM »

Most states have an easy way to track your ballot. https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-track-the-status-of-your-mail-in-ballot-2020-9
There are certainly problems that could happen after a ballot is delivered, but USPS failing to deliver is pretty low on my list of concerns.

USPS and accurate tracking are two things usually not mentioned in the same sentence
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RocketMan
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2020, 06:08:28 AM »

USPS and accurate tracking are two things usually not mentioned in the same sentence

Quoted for truth.
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Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

How many Democrats does it take to fix a problem?  No one knows because it's never happened.
Ben
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2020, 06:10:05 AM »

And what can someone do about their ballot if it goes astray, especially close to Nov. 3?  Little or nothing would be my guess.

I would add to my post above that mail-in ballots should have a postmark deadline well before election day. Maybe 7-10 days earlier at a guess. I would say less, but non-CONUS military absentee ballots can take a while to get here.
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DittoHead
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2020, 06:21:47 AM »

And what can someone do about their ballot if they find it has gone astray, especially close to Nov. 3?  Little or nothing would be my guess, especially in states that only have mail-in voting.
Mail it earlier so you're not in that situation Huh?
If the ballot has gone astray you can generally cast a provisional ballot on election day.
Or just vote in person if you're worried about it, I don't care.
I'm just saying you don't have to blindly trust USPS if you plan ahead a tiny bit.

USPS and accurate tracking are two things usually not mentioned in the same sentence

The vast majority of these don't rely on USPS tracking at all - it's the clerks who do the actual counting marking the ballot as received.
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WLJ
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2020, 06:23:54 AM »

The vast majority of these don't rely on USPS tracking at all - it's the clerks who do the actual counting marking the ballot as received.

?

Clerks and marking the ballot as received are part of the tracking process
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DittoHead
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2020, 06:52:03 AM »

?

Clerks and marking the ballot as received are part of the tracking process
If this is a question, I do not understand it.

My tracking has these steps:

USPS isn't involved in any of the tracking, it's all done by the election clerks. Once it hits that last step, you know the ballot has safely arrived where it needs to be to get counted.
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WLJ
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2020, 06:59:55 AM »

If this is a question, I do not understand it.

My tracking has these steps:

USPS isn't involved in any of the tracking, it's all done by the election clerks. Once it hits that last step, you know the ballot has safely arrived where it needs to be to get counted.

So USPS clerks/carriers/trucks/etc... are not involved at all? How do these election clerks get it?
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RocketMan
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2020, 07:32:17 AM »

If this is a question, I do not understand it.

My tracking has these steps:

USPS isn't involved in any of the tracking, it's all done by the election clerks. Once it hits that last step, you know the ballot has safely arrived where it needs to be to get counted.

Once again you've missed the point.  If a voter is in a vote-by-mail only state, Oregon or Washington for example, and their ballot has not arrived to be counted by Nov. 3, what recourse do they have?  I guess it just sucks to be them.
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Conservatives see George Orwell's "1984" as a cautionary tale.  Progressives view it as a "how to" manual.

My wife often says to me, "You are evil and must be destroyed." She may be right.

How many Democrats does it take to fix a problem?  No one knows because it's never happened.
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2020, 08:07:42 AM »

I feel like there's recent jurisprudence on that very thing.

True it may not explicitly apply, but precedent exists
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DittoHead
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2020, 08:30:26 AM »

So USPS clerks/carriers/trucks/etc... are not involved at all?
Face Palm!
Most states have an easy way to track your ballot.
USPS and accurate tracking are two things usually not mentioned in the same sentence
The vast majority of these don't rely on USPS tracking at all
USPS isn't involved in any of the tracking, it's all done by the election clerks.
USPS delivers a lot of mail, including ballots, but they don't track most of it and they do lose some of it.
USPS tracking sucks. You don't have to rely on USPS tracking for your ballot though.
The election websites run the by the election clerks provide their own tracking that doesn't suck.


If a voter is in a vote-by-mail only state, Oregon or Washington for example, and their ballot has not arrived to be counted by Nov. 3, what recourse do they have?  I guess it just sucks to be them.
Not living in one of those states I can't say for sure, but most states have some form of a provisional ballot that would apply to cases like that.
But again, if that's your concern there are easy ways to avoid getting into that situation in the first place. Mail it early or go in person.
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Ben
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2020, 01:39:32 PM »

Another reason you don't do these freakin' ballot boxes willy nilly:

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ballot-drop-box-la-county-set-on-fire-arson-investigation

The article mentions it was an "unstaffed" box. To which I reiterate that boxes require human security, and  I don't mean antifa college kids sitting next to a box on a street corner who might tamper with the ballots. I mean a responsible party who will be held responsible for any monkey business.


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DittoHead
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« Reply #23 on: October 20, 2020, 06:45:36 AM »

As far as statistics, here's the report from my local clerk:

We have 56K registered voters here.
25.5K absentee ballots were requested & mailed out.
17K have been returned  (~30% of registered voters).
In-person early voting starts today.
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Brad Johnson
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« Reply #24 on: October 20, 2020, 07:03:40 AM »

Early voting has been active in Lubbock for the last week. Every day has set turnout records.

Brad
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