EVERY. SINGLE. (Presidential) ELECTION.

[makattak]

Mr. Willimason is of course referring to the polls CLOSEST TO THE ELECTION, when the pollsters have stopped trying to shape public opinion with wildly outbalanced sample percentages to build an impression of how unpopular conservatives/Republicans/Trump is.

It's the SAME GAME EVERY ELECTION and you'd think supposedly intelligent people would know the game. The polls ALWAYS tighten come election time because they are more closely measuring the voter's preferences. Prior to that, they are reflecting the pollsters preferences.  

But, they do know the game: they're part of it.

And, on cue:

https://news.yahoo.com/final-polls-election-show-biden-165852990.html

"Final Polls before Election Show Biden with National Lead, but Battleground States Tightening"


https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-week-in-polls-trump-gains-in-9-of-12-swing-states-but-biden-still-leads-in-10-of-them/

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2020/11/01/new-polls-two-days-out-race-tightens-in-florida-and-pennsylvania-490766

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/presidential-race-tightening-according-to-a-new-poll/ar-BB1azY6g

Wow, I must be some kind of psychic to have predicted this, huh?

[DittoHead]

I guess someone forgot to tell Nate Silver at 538

[makattak]

I guess someone forgot to tell Nate Silver at 538

Nate Silver, from Nov 10, 2020:

A 9% chance of winning didn't mean that he couldn't win!

[DittoHead]

Nate Silver, from Nov 10, 2020:

A 9% chance of winning didn't mean that he couldn't win!

Wow, you really nailed it 
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

[DittoHead]

I should clarify that I expected to see polls & forecasts tighten over the month of October and they did not (at least to the degree I expected) so my predictions are already going poorly.

[Ben]

The background stats for that chart don't seem to take the geography of the popular vote into account. Without geography, it might be a valid chart. Otherwise, places like CA put a wrench in it due to population weighting and dem majority. CA will go for Biden. Whether that's 10 million votes or 15 million votes doesn't affect the fact that CA will go for Biden in the popular and electoral vote. The additional 5 million popular vote numbers also then don't translate to the overall national popular numbers for that chart to help Biden or hurt Trump, due to the population weighting of CA. Oh, look. Tobler's Law again. Perhaps they're adjusting weighting for those numbers, but the data at that 538 link doesn't indicate it.

Also, they are calculating based on the "shy Trump voter" basically not existing.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-arent-shy-but-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/

Sorry, but by far, the people I still know in CA that are voting for Trump are pretty much keeping their mouths shut about it in public there. There's a difference between driving to a Trump rally, putting on your red hat and cheering with all the other like-minded people there, and doing the same thing in a Starbucks in Hollywood, or getting into a verbal fight with your neighbor about it.

[MechAg94]

I am trying to remember in my lifetime an election that did not show the Democrat leading months ahead of the election.  I wasn't paying attention in the 80's, but I was thinking even Reagan was behind at first. 

[MechAg94]

Reading the thread title, I thought it would be about Republicans being accused of planning to take away old people's social security. 

[griz]

Reading the thread title, I thought it would be somebody stridently pointing out that this, even more so than the last ones, is the most important election EVER.

A plus this election is that with somewhere around half of the votes cast already, there seems to be less hysteria (about the vote, not the aftermath) leading up to tomorrow.  Early voting will no doubt change campaigning in the future.

[Ben]

Early voting will no doubt change campaigning in the future.

Though I'm much more concerned with late voting. I think it's a safe bet that PA will be the Florida of 2020.

[TommyGunn]

Nate Silver, from Nov 10, 2020:

A 9% chance of winning didn't mean that he couldn't win!

 

A poll from eight days in the future? ? ?  Shouldn't they know by then?

Does H. G. Wells run these polls?     

[MechAg94]

 

A poll from eight days in the future? ? ?  Shouldn't they know by then?

Does H. G. Wells run these polls?     

They will still be counting the mail in ballots.

[RoadKingLarry]

They will still be counting finding all the mail in ballots.

FTFY

[Brad Johnson]

If Biden wins I pray conservatives retain the Senate. With that and a conservative majority in SCOTUS, we at least have a chance of keeping the worst of possibilities at bay.

Brad

[dogmush]

If Biden wins I pray conservatives retain the Senate. With that and a conservative majority in SCOTUS, we at least have a chance of keeping the worst of possibilities at bay.

Brad

I would be entertained, in a drinking while the world burns kind of way, to see Biden win, R's take the house and Senate, and then have them impeach him on the Ukraine/China deals.  The R's love following D precedent on political games, and it would be the final nail in the coffin of the US having a functional Federal Government.

[Ben]

I would be entertained, in a drinking while the world burns kind of way, to see Biden win, R's take the house and Senate, and then have them impeach him on the Ukraine/China deals.  The R's love following D precedent on political games, and it would be the final nail in the coffin of the US having a functional Federal Government.

I normally don't care for the copycat stuff, but after this last impeachment debacle and all the other "45, don't say his name" and other TDS stuff that has severely harmed the country, including the impeachment taking precedence over the virus, I'm all for it now.

If Biden wins, he's not my president and we need to start impeachment on day one. Burning down Trader Joes, Whole Foods, and every "blended drink with 37 supplements" place in the country would be step two.

[charby]

I normally don't care for the copycat stuff, but after this last impeachment debacle and all the other "45, don't say his name" and other TDS stuff that has severely harmed the country, including the impeachment taking precedence over the virus, I'm all for it now.

If Biden wins, he's not my president and we need to start impeachment on day one. Burning down Trader Joes, Whole Foods, and every "blended drink with 37 supplements" place in the country would be step two.

Burning down media HQ might be a better start along with Antifa clubhouses. Then head to the suburbs and burn houses that have Biden/Harris signs in their front yards.

[230RN]

"...or getting into a verbal fight with your neighbor about it."

Somebody here once said that when a person asks you for your opinion, they really just want to tell you theirs.