Stock market and the election

[MillCreek]

November was the best month for the Dow in the last 30 years.  Year to date, my IRA has gone up $ 70K, or approximately 10%.  $ 46K of that increase was in November.  This makes up a bit for my account dropping $ 150K back in February and March.

[Ben]

I think it's not so much the election, and more the already expected third and fourth quarter recoveries from the debacle of March.

[MillCreek]

^^^I suspect you may be right, although it is interesting timing, especially as we see another surge of COVID and the associated economic impact.

[dogmush]

I think for the most part investors are OK with the election.  Trump is good for money making, but he also has a tendency to rock the boat on international trade, which isn't great for investing.

Biden is a Dem, but not a radical one, and I suspect that most investors think he'll be pretty predictable, which is good for investing.  If the talked about swap for Harris happens we might see more concern in the market.

There's also the looming question of how big/widespread the next round of lockdowns is going to be.

[MillCreek]

And the Dow is back above 30,000 today.

[Angel Eyes]

I think it's not so much the election, and more the already expected third and fourth quarter recoveries from the debacle of March.

... and the promise of a working COVID vaccine in the near future.

[Ben]

I think for the most part investors are OK with the election.  Trump is good for money making, but he also has a tendency to rock the boat on international trade, which isn't great for investing.

Biden is a Dem, but not a radical one, and I suspect that most investors think he'll be pretty predictable, which is good for investing.  If the talked about swap for Harris happens we might see more concern in the market.

There's also the looming question of how big/widespread the next round of lockdowns is going to be.

I think one big part is Biden's choice of Yellen. She is by no means in my top ten, or even twenty, but compared to someone like Pocahontas, she is a stabilizer. I can only imagine the market massacre if Warren was the choice.

[lupinus]

Also of note, people see Biden as more likely than Trump in the white house for another stimulus. Like the idea of being governmentally stimated or not, money is money.

On the flip side I did some well timed trading, up an average of 18% for the year.

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[charby]

I'm trying to recall my investing past, I started during the Clinton Administration. So far it looks like I've made more consistent returns during the democrat administrations then during the republican ones. Trump administration has been a wild ride.

[TommyGunn]

I think for the most part investors are OK with the election.  Trump is good for money making, but he also has a tendency to rock the boat on international trade, which isn't great for investing.

Biden is a Dem, but not a radical one, and I suspect that most investors think he'll be pretty predictable, which is good for investing.  If the talked about swap for Harris happens we might see more concern in the market.

There's also the looming question of how big/widespread the next round of lockdowns is going to be.

Biden not radical?  First,  his position on firearms IS verrrry radical.  Confiscate ARs and AKs?   Or apply a $200 tax?  And on "hi cap" magazines ---- which lack serial numbers, so how are they to be "registered"? ?

Second, and more general,  he is seen by many as a "place holder"  or avatar for other powers  Rush Limbaugh has speculated he'll be removed via 25th amendment and Kamala Harris (who is a card-carrying socialist) will become prez.  In addition, he wants higher taxes,  green new deal, open borders,  and other loony socialist programs.

So far he ostensibly seems to be playing it fairly middle-road, atleast in some of his cabinet picks.  And I do agree the market seems to agree he's predictable (though I personally do not) so  right now,   yea,  the market is decently happy.

I do not think that will last.

[dogmush]

Biden not radical?  First,  his position on firearms IS verrrry radical.  Confiscate ARs and AKs?   Or apply a $200 tax?  And on "hi cap" magazines ---- which lack serial numbers, so how are they to be "registered"? ?

Second, and more general,  he is seen by many as a "place holder"  or avatar for other powers  Rush Limbaugh has speculated he'll be removed via 25th amendment and Kamala Harris (who is a card-carrying socialist) will become prez.  In addition, he wants higher taxes,  green new deal, open borders,  and other loony socialist programs.

So far he ostensibly seems to be playing it fairly middle-road, atleast in some of his cabinet picks.  And I do agree the market seems to agree he's predictable (though I personally do not) so  right now,   yea,  the market is decently happy.

I do not think that will last.

In the context of business and international trade, Biden is not very radical.  That was the context of the conversation.  Apologies, I thought that would be evident. 

[TommyGunn]

In the context of business and international trade, Biden is not very radical.  That was the context of the conversation.  Apologies, I thought that would be evident. 

Ok .... but I was .....am ... primarily concerned about his domestic policies.     Anyhow,  tax policy and regulation policy certainly will effect businesses,  and I fear, not in a positive way.

[Jim147]

If he does as promised to roll back all the trump tax cuts it will go downhill.