Can Ron Paul get Elected?

[tmg19103]

Can Ron Paul get elected? Well, he currently polls 4-5% with Gallop, which only polls registered Republicans who voted in the last election. Since only about 25% of his supporters fall in that category, he is really polling closer to 20% for open primary states like New Hampshire. Realize John Kerry was polling 4% before NH last election and 54% after he won the state. If you have watched any of the GOP debates, you will notice the audience roars for Ron Paul.

Note the web traffic to his campaign website compareded to the other front runners. He is having a fundraising push to end the quarter and just raised about $250,000 online the last 24 hours. End of 2nd quarter he was second to Romeny and Giuliani with cash on hand and ahead of McCain. There is talk he raised more money than any other GOP candidate this past quarter.

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details?site0=www.ronpaul2008.com%2F&site1=www.mittromney.com%2F%20&site2=www.joinrudy2008.com%2F&site3=www.johnmccain.com&site4=fred08.com&y=r&z=3&h=300&w=610&range=1m&size=Medium&url=http://www.ronpaul2008.com/

His position on gun rights (which no other candidate can touch):

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/gunowners/

[Perd Hapley]

Two words: Howard Dean.

[thebaldguy]

I like and support Ron Paul, but I don't think he can get elected. If you look at the mainstream media such as CNN, CBS, ABC, FOX, daily newspapers, etc., you will see only a few candidates mentioned, and these are mentioned on a daily basis. Remember, there is no law that says any media source must be fair and balanced. Our paper actually endorses candidates near election time; I think most other papers do too. They only endorse monopoly party candidates. Never anyone for real change. 

Name recognition is everything; most people I run into have never heard of Ron Paul. These people, like the vast majority of Americans, get the majority of their news from the above sources. That is who they vote for. I think that most Americans view elections like they were wagering on the horse track; they vote for who they think will win more than who may be the best person for the job.

How can Ron Paul get mentioned on the above media sources listed above? He can't. He won't. They ignore him as they support other candidates directly/indirectly. One hope is that millions turn out to vote in the Republican primaries to get him on the ticket. However, most Republicans don't support Ron Paul.

That being said, I will vote for Ron Paul even if I have to write him in. Republicans and Democrats who know me (I'm a solid independent with libertarian leanings) each coach me to vote for their candidate as they are not as bad as the other candidate.

[Bogie]

It all starts with name recognition...

If it hadn't been for the first Bimbo Alert, Clinton wouldn't have been elected... The democrats were pushing a good dozen candidates (about like the Republicans this time), and he got a LOT of media attention. At the same time that folks were feeling forgiving - this was after Clarence Thomas, and a coupla other prominent sex/politics things... So, instead of being a career limiting move, that got him RECOGNITION, which got him more publicity to start out, which ended up getting him into the white house. I think that Hillary is ahead right now because of the name recognition, and the fact that NOBODY really wants to vote for someone named Obama, but that can go away - folks are more fickle now...

[Headless Thompson Gunner]

No.

[Boomhauer]

You do realize how many people vote in my state, right?

They go in, select "Straight Democrat" or "Straight Republican" to select the party they prefer. They don't stop to read the names and positions and think about who they are voting for.

Unless Ron Paul is the republican nominee, and he won't be (he is going up against Guiliani, Romney, and McCain), he doesn't stand a chance. You don't hear about Fred Thompson much, either, but you hear about him a lot more than Ron Paul.

Electing the president is a popularity contest. And that still hinges on the Mainstream Media.

Do you hear about Richardson or any of the other Democrats running? No. You only hear about Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. One of those three (leaning towards Clinton or Obama as the likely candidate) will get the nomination.

I don't care how much money RP has raised, or how many supporters he has on the internet. I don't hear his name mentioned when talking to other people, nor do I hear about him when the morning news comes on.

So, while he is qualified under the Constitution and there is the possibility that he could be elected, it probably ain't going to happen.

[tmg19103]

One way to judge support is through straw polls. A straw poll is when a party for a state, a region of a state or a county has a rally and a vote of actual party members who live in the state, part of a state or county AND have to fork over $20-$100 just to vote in order to support the local party. THIS truly shows candidate support.

Here is a link to each and EVERY GOP straw poll held this year. If you scroll down you will see Ron Paul head-to-head with the other GOP candidates. Why is it that Ron Paul's campaign website gets 20 times the traffic of the other candidates, why is it that overall he is #1 in straw poll wins, yet these supposed "scientific" Gallop polls of 400 people who answer their listed landline phone and who are registered and voted in the last election are so different in their outcomes?

http://www.ronpaul2008.com/straw-poll-results/

Also, watch, listen and learn about Ron Paul from the Rev. John Killian, where Ron Paul won the western Alabama straw poll with 81% of the vote.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZTpYTQLz6c

Ron Paul's position on the 2A, which no other candidate can touch.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWbvtePgT90

[Finch]

Sure he could, but it's attitudes like:

"I support him but he will never get elected" type stuff that will prevent it. I think he has a chance. Everyone I tell about him loves his stance on most things, its just a matter of getting the word out. In an age such as ours, there is no reason to continue saying that the MSM controls everything. There are plenty of ways around them.

[Bogie]

Could also be the same reason why the guys from the libertarian table at gun shows will follow you 3-4 tables down the aisle, and sometimes out the door, jabbering the whole way....

[Euclidean]

Sure he could, but it's attitudes like:

"I support him but he will never get elected" type stuff that will   could prevent it. I think he has a chance. Everyone I tell about him loves his stance on most things, its just a matter of getting the word out. In an age such as ours, there is no reason to continue saying that the MSM controls everything. There are plenty of ways around them.

Ron Paul is not perfect, but no one has given me a reason beyond they don't like his foreign policy to support anyone else when I asked.  Finch is absolutely right in his appraisal of the situation.  When a rational person looks at the current situation, it's apparent who the best choice is at this time in history.  The opposition to his candidacy seems to consist of an irrational, emotional reaction Finch has so elegantly summarized in so few words.

[cassandra and sara's daddy]

i think there is hope  and its rooted in disgust towards both partys that gets greater everyday, if they campaign with their usual lack of class and style they might drive folks to paul.   sad but true about the popularity contest though.

[Perd Hapley]

Ron Paul is not perfect, but no one has given me a reason beyond they don't like his foreign policy to support anyone else when I asked.  Finch is absolutely right in his appraisal of the situation.  When a rational person looks at the current situation, it's apparent who the best choice is at this time in history.  The opposition to his candidacy seems to consist of an irrational, emotional reaction Finch has so elegantly summarized in so few words.

What the?  His foreign policy is reason enough.  It's idiotic and dangerous. 

[ilbob]

His foreign policy position is a bit scary, but in reality, it is not a whole lot different than the democratic party position right this second. They want to cut and run too.

I don't think he has much chance, but you just never know.

He is trying the same tact that Howard Dean did, and showing much the same results. Lots of Internet and political groupie buzz, lots of money, but not much outside that limited arena. If nothing else, he forces the other more mainstream candidates to address some of the issues in a more realistic way.

[Perd Hapley]

He is trying the same tact that Howard Dean did, and showing much the same results. Lots of Internet and political groupie buzz, lots of money, but not much outside that limited arena.   

I already said that, but much more succinctly.   

[tmg19103]

I will say this. With over 70% of the country against the Iraq War, IMHO, Ron Paul is the only Republican with a chance to beat Hillary. Ron Paul voted against the war from the start, while also voting against the Patriot Act and the Real ID Act. Hillary voted for all those - including increased funds for the war. She will no doubt get the Democratic nomination, and a pro-war Republican has no chance against her.

[Euclidean]

What the?  His foreign policy is reason enough.  It's idiotic and dangerous. 

You can say that, but you haven't (and can't) substantiate it.  It might look that way if you just look at parts of it out of context, sure, but when you look at the whole platform it makes sense.  You can make anything sound bad or stupid (or good and wise) by pulling out small snippets that sound bad (good) out of context. 

Dr. Paul has at least researched his stance thoroughly, and has even had to go so far as to give his opponents a list of recommended reading on the topic.  I doubt any other candidate has any thoughts on the topic beyond "I'll make it up as I go along."  He's also talking about American sovereignty, the elephant in the room as far as foreign policy is concerned,  which no one else has even mentioned in their campaign.  But we already argued this in the other thread.

Again, Ron Paul supporters seem to be forming arguments, critics, the same insults.

[wooderson]

No, he can't. There's no reason to pretend otherwise. In the million-to-one shot that he gets the GOP nomination, he's going to turn off a lot of Republicans for his foreign policy stance, and moderates will lose interest in him (see also: McCain 2000 vs. McCain 2008 - the 'tough talk' stuff is good publicity but people see through it) and he'll not find any kind of crossover support.

[tmg19103]

The people of the United States have HAD it. It is time for a revolution, and Ron Paul's stump speech in New Hampshire today speaks to that revolution. It's time to legalize the constitution and restore integrity to the White House.

http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/015722.html

http://commentsfromleftfield.com/2007/09/ron-paul-really

[tmg19103]

Join the revolution, and the revolution happens to have the most pro-gun candidate who wishes to repeal virtually every unconstitutional gun law - the Brady Bill, gun free zones, the need for concealed carry licenses, you name it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFfdB5OzlyQ

[Perd Hapley]

Ron Paul is leading a revolution now?   

[Perd Hapley]

What the?  His foreign policy is reason enough.  It's idiotic and dangerous. 

You can say that, but you haven't (and can't) substantiate it....Ron Paul supporters seem to be forming arguments, critics, the same insults. 

Oh, heavens.  One could say that about anything.  Both of us are offering opinions, so mine hardly suffers from the fact that I didn't "substantiate" it.  You didn't "substantiate" yours, either. 

[Sergeant Bob]

Can Ron Paul get Elected?

I think the thread title is a bit misleading.

It should be called....

The Ron Paul Campaign Thread. Vote for Ron Paul!!

[Waitone]

Ain't gonna happen.  What is left of the republican establishment after Bush gets through with it will turn on Paul like a pack of dingos turns on a wounded member.  Internet polls are basically irrelevant in picturing reality.  You can bet if Paul is making progress that the Rockefeller wing of the party sees, he will be stopped in one form or fashion.  We are talking raw, power politics and Paul is not one of the players.  He is merely eye candy for the moment.  Ross Perot constituted a significant lesson to republicans; a lesson that will not be forgotten.  Paul's candidacy is on borrowed time.

[Fly320s]

Or, they could embrace Paul in an attempt to lure him into the dark abyss called the Republican Party.  Get him in office and then use their super-powers to persuade him to walk the party line.   

BTW, Ron Paul's campaign raised over $1,000,000 ths past week. 

[Bogie]

My prediction:
 
Primaries will basically leave him sitting. He'll get a little bit more publicity, but the #2 (or 3, or 4, or 5...) candidate won't get a lot of time... True Believers will draft him for a third party, or will organize a national write-in candidate campaign.
 
Hillary will have 49% of the vote, the Republican challenger 45%, and independents, including Paul, will split 6%.