Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => The Roundtable => Topic started by: Nick1911 on March 17, 2020, 01:32:30 PM
-
Time to log your predictions!
How do you predict the future of this pandemic to go? What further actions will governments in the US and world take? How long will the various measures be in effect for? What supply shortages will be most critical? What will the longer term economic damage be?
Rub your crystal ball and tell us, how do you see this playing out?
-
Well, I just saw the money we're throwing at it, including stimulus, has now gone from Trump's original 2 billion to 850 billion. I need some time to think about the effects of that.
-
We're all dead! DEAD!
Whoo Hoo Floo is going to kill us all!
Game over, man! Game over!
-
(https://i.imgflip.com/254e1p.jpg)
-
Time to log your predictions!
How do you predict the future of this pandemic to go? Worse than anyone thinks.
What further actions will governments in the US and world take? Lockdowns, Quarantines, and Building more incinerators.
How long will the various measures be in effect for? What supply shortages will be most critical? Food, medications- 20% of our population is on psychiatrist prescribed drugs.
What will the longer term economic damage be? Not Sure, Fed already cut rates to ZERO- that was a desperation move. The entire healthcare sector dealing with senior citizens is going to collapse. Not sure we will recognize the economy in today's terms when its all over.
Rub your crystal ball and tell us, how do you see this playing out? Die off larger than we've seen in generations. Lingering and crippling issues caused by the virus- chronic health problems due to organ damage, rapid decline and death upon later upon reinfection, fertility issues due to testicular lesions caused by the virus.
I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I've been wrong about much as its played out so far.
Keep an eye on Italy- its like looking 2 weeks into our own future.
-
Die off larger than we've seen in generations. Lingering and crippling issues caused by the virus- chronic health problems due to organ damage, rapid decline and death upon later upon reinfection, fertility issues due to testicular lesions caused by the virus.
:O ??? :O
Wow. First I've heard of this.
-
(https://i.imgflip.com/254e1p.jpg)
Eventually.
The Stand this ain't.
-
Eventually.
The Stand this ain't.
Sarcasm doesn't always come through correctly on a forum
-
I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.
-
I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.
"Before this is all over"? When would that be?
-
"Before this is all over"? When would that be?
Over? When would it be over?
It's not over until we say it's over!
-
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/wuhan-doctors-warn-coronavirus-could-cause-male-infertility
-
My bets:
1. Airlines grounded by next Monday, March 23rd. Probably lasts 1 week.
2. Other mass transit gets similar restrictions. Trains, subways, buses. But less scrutiny. Workers gotta work.
3. Another/continuing run on stores for short and long-term needs.
4. A few riots/mobs/mob theft in high density population areas.
5. The country basically shuts down for two weeks, March 23 to April 6. Soft reboot from there.
-
"Before this is all over"? When would that be?
Let's pick Sept 3, 2020.
-
5 million dead in the U.S. by September?
And I thought I was pessimistic. :O
My only prediction at the moment is that this will drag on much longer (both the pandemic, partial shutdown & the economic downturn) than most people think.
We will be adjusting to a "new normal" into next year, economic recovery will be slow and the deficit is going to explode.
-
The government will fast track the vaccine, which will be available this fall. Most people will get it and the Chinese virus will have become one more "flu" to deal with.
Summer will cause a natural ebb in the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, leading to a recovery. By election time, the stock market will have been recovered and Trump sails to victory.
Oh, and all the spending moves us 6 months closer to the reckoning for unfunded liabilities.
-
5 million dead in the U.S. by September?
And I thought I was pessimistic. :O
My only prediction at the moment is that this will drag on much longer (both the pandemic, partial shutdown & the economic downturn) than most people think.
We will be adjusting to a "new normal" into next year, economic recovery will be slow and the deficit is going to explode.
I think that's optimistic....
I'd pick a number 2-3x higher, though I don't think this is going to be over by September.
-
Summer will cause a natural ebb in the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, leading to a recovery. By election time, the stock market will have been recovered and Trump sails to victory.
This was my original prediction, but I might be starting to lean in Dittohead's direction. Mostly because of these bajillions and gazillions of dollars in bailouts, stimulus, and general free stuff being bandied about. We'll get out of it, but it might take longer.
Trump needs to hope for a Summer pop in general activity that will lead to a positive third quarter for the election. The second quarter is going to completely blow, that's a near certainty. If that gets dragged out to third, it's going to be really bad PR for Trump.
-
China has had 3000-some deaths so far. Italy more than 2500. Why are we talking millions?
-
I heard a prediction that it will all be over in time to have the state and national party conventions ahead of the Presidential Election.
-
National debt over 25T.
-
My bets:
1. Airlines grounded by next Monday, March 23rd. Probably lasts 1 week.
2. Other mass transit gets similar restrictions. Trains, subways, buses. But less scrutiny. Workers gotta work.
3. Another/continuing run on stores for short and long-term needs.
4. A few riots/mobs/mob theft in high density population areas.
5. The country basically shuts down for two weeks, March 23 to April 6. Soft reboot from there.
I think number 5 will be more like 4 weeks. Italy is expected to hit peak cases today/tomorrow.
I see no other flaws in your list.
Numbers. I think the US hits 100-120k infected. 5k deaths. Everyone will be talking about how it wasn't "that big of a deal" except for any healthcare worker in a major city.
Easy prediction, most major cities will get their *expletive deleted*it pushed in. Those of us in more rural climes generally won't see much effect besides the lockdowns of business and food shortages.
-
China has had 3000-some deaths so far. Italy more than 2500. Why are we talking millions?
Millions if we let this just run wild. Not sure why the government is talking that way, when we see states and cities and businesses taking action to slow/prevent the spread. Maybe to scare us into doing the right thing.
-
The DMC/MSM will continue to deliberately hype and inflate the dangers of COVID-19. Government at all levels will continue to over-react to the threat. The economy will tank as a result. Millions of people will be put out of work. Unemployment will explode. Economic recovery will take at least 18 months, but likely longer. Democrats will strengthen their hold on the House, take the Senate, and President Biden will be replaced by Vice President HRC early in the new term after the 2020 elections. That is exactly the result the MSM/DNC are planning for from their actions.
-
:O ??? :O
Wow. First I've heard of this.
Yep, been known for about a month:
http://www.armedpolitesociety.com/index.php?topic=61772.msg1242277#msg1242277
-
1-3000 deaths and by June life is pretty normal.
-
I'm thinking 400 million dead Americans by next week.
Which is still FAR fewer than the number of Americans we'll lose to the scourge of gnu violence in the same span! BAN GNUS NOW!
-
The DMC/MSM will continue to deliberately hype and inflate the dangers of COVID-19. Government at all levels will continue to over-react to the threat. The economy will tank as a result. Millions of people will be put out of work. Unemployment will explode. Economic recovery will take at least 18 months, but likely longer. Democrats will strengthen their hold on the House, take the Senate, and President Biden will be replaced by Vice President HRC early in the new term after the 2020 elections. That is exactly the result the MSM/DNC are planning for from their actions.
The threat is *expletive deleted*ing real. Read up on Italy right now. See what the *expletive deleted*ck they are going through in the health care sector in the Lombardi province.
-
Political fights will become more intense, as swamp creatures of both parties attempt to load up the ever-increasing stimulus/health plans with more pet programs and pork unrelated to the virus. (ABCNBCCBSMSNBCCNN may even pick one side to support and one side to excoriate in this.)
Education will change, with more done on-line. Note media reports that Kansas just closed schools for the rest of the year.
Look for BIG issues with security along our border with Mexico once covid-19 really takes off down there. Watch for Democrats and the usual media suspects get the vapors about Trump trying to halt the flow of INFECTED illegals crossing the border. (Also just saw that Guatemala has decided to refuse to accept planeloads of Guatemalans being deported from the USA.)
International relations will become more interesting when it becomes generally accepted that covid-19 came out of a Chicom biowarfare research lab that lost containment, NOT from consumption of undercooked bats, which the Chinese have been doing for centuries. (Western nations and the rest of the world will try to keep a lid on this.)
-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GU0d8kpybVg)
-
I'm thinking 400 million dead Americans by next week.
Which is still FAR fewer than the number of Americans we'll lose to the scourge of gnu violence in the same span! BAN GNUS NOW!
I'd pay to watch that.
-
Since everything I predict turns out to be wrong... I'm think we are all going to die.
So now you are safe.
-
Political fights will become more intense, as swamp creatures of both parties attempt to load up the ever-increasing stimulus/health plans with more pet programs and pork unrelated to the virus. (ABCNBCCBSMSNBCCNN may even pick one side to support and one side to excoriate in this.)
Education will change, with more done on-line. Note media reports that Kansas just closed schools for the rest of the year.
Look for BIG issues with security along our border with Mexico once covid-19 really takes off down there. Watch for Democrats and the usual media suspects get the vapors about Trump trying to halt the flow of INFECTED illegals crossing the border. (Also just saw that Guatemala has decided to refuse to accept planeloads of Guatemalans being deported from the USA.)
International relations will become more interesting when it becomes generally accepted that covid-19 came out of a Chicom biowarfare research lab that lost containment, NOT from consumption of undercooked bats, which the Chinese have been doing for centuries. (Western nations and the rest of the world will try to keep a lid on this.)
They are falling over each other to throw free money around now.
-
Yeah I think I was low on my number. Looking more like 28T debt if they keep promising free money.
-
The DMC/MSM will continue to deliberately hype and inflate the dangers of COVID-19. Government at all levels will continue to over-react to the threat. The economy will tank as a result. Millions of people will be put out of work. Unemployment will explode. Economic recovery will take at least 18 months, but likely longer. Democrats will strengthen their hold on the House, take the Senate, and President Biden will be replaced by Vice President HRC early in the new term after the 2020 elections. That is exactly the result the MSM/DNC are planning for from their actions.
Yeah, this whole thing is a lose-lose scenario for an incumbent.
If deaths are on par with any other flu and draconian measures help ensure that to be the case, it was an overreaction and breach of civil liberties and sabotage of the markets.
If deaths skyrocket well above flu, the incumbent didn't do enough and is a public health policy failure and must be replaced.
-
A cure will be "found" just in the nick of time and Demoroids will take credit for it.
It will be a flash in the pan panic that knocks out all those pesky small business owners evil entrepreneurs and further convinces the masses of idiots to want socialized health care (and just ignore Italy, 'cause it wasn't done right there)
and because I'm actually an optimist...
Fly over country will be so sick of the idiot masses and the Demoroids obnoxious and obvious manipulations of the truth that Trump nails another four years in office 'cause MURICA!!
-
J.P. Morgan's updated prediction for GDP:
Q1: -4%
Q2: -14%
Q3: +8%
Q4: +4%
Full year: -1.5% overall.
I hope we're coming back like that by Q3 but that seems too fast to me.
-
J.P. Morgan's updated prediction for GDP:I hope we're coming back that by Q3 but that seems too fast to me.
I'll be putting my TSP back in the aggressive funds at the end of march...so that would be epic.
-
I'll be putting my TSP back in the aggressive funds at the end of march...so that would be epic.
I just move 10% of my Lifecycle L fund into C a couple of days ago. I'll probably do another 10% in the next month or so. Through luck and end of year rebalancing, not brilliance, I moved 30% of my C&S funds into my L (my largest fund right now) in December.
-
Call my cynical, but I'll be surprised if most APS'ers aren't classified as "too wealthy" to receive any sort of payment out of this.
-
Call my cynical, but I'll be surprised if most APS'ers aren't classified as "too wealthy" to receive any sort of payment out of this.
I don't want a payment. I can take care of myself. FedGov wants to give me money? Just reduce my taxes.
-
My prediction: Because I'm at the VA Hospital at least once a week, I'll catch that *expletive deleted*it and it will be a miracle if me and my wife survive.
-
My prediction: Because I'm at the VA Hospital at least once a week, I'll catch that *expletive deleted*it and it will be a miracle if me and my wife survive.
Are they letting you in? I had two appointments at my VA hospital for Monday (past), and they called me on SUNDAY! to cancel both of them.
-
So far they are. I'm calling them tomorrow...
-
I don't want a payment. I can take care of myself. FedGov wants to give me money? Just reduce my taxes.
I'm investing it if I get one.
-
Silly government...
Don't they know that people will just blow it on hand sanitizer and toilet paper?
-
Silly government...
Don't they know that people will just blow it on hand sanitizer and toilet paper?
And ammo =D
And booze =D =D
-
I'm investing it if I get one.
I already invested. I'm blowing it on gun parts and a new collet chuck for my lathe
-
I'm investing it if I get one.
How can you invest it if you and everyone else is DEAD!
-
How can you invest it if you and everyone else is DEAD!
If fiat money accrues interest but no one is there it calculate it, does still exist?
-
I predict
Over 99% of the country will survive.
The government will end up even more powerful.
The rich will still be rich.
The poor will still be poor.
-
I don't want a payment. I can take care of myself. FedGov wants to give me money? Just reduce my taxes.
I'm torn between getting an early 50's 2 door post Chevy or a HD evo project bike with my government check, both would make me happy.
I found a running 53 Chevy 2 door post with 38k original miles on it for $2300, I want something I can modify, not keep original, have a hard time not cutting up a low mileage survivor. I want something with a modern front end (Camaro), 12 bolt rear end, disk brakes and LS1 engine.
-
If fiat money accrues interest but no one is there it calculate it, does still exist?
Exchange it for fiat notes as a ready source of toilet paper.
-
I'm torn between getting an early 50's 2 door post Chevy or a HD evo project bike with my government check, both would make me happy.
I found a running 53 Chevy 2 door post with 38k original miles on it for $2300, I want something I can modify, not keep original, have a hard time not cutting up a low mileage survivor. I want something with a modern front end (Camaro), 12 bolt rear end, disk brakes and LS1 engine.
Evo harleys are super cheap these days, very easy to work on, and pretty reliable.
I'd be tempted to buy another for a project bike (really want a FLH) but I already have 2 in my barn already.
-
Exchange it for fiat notes as a ready source of toilet paper.
Make sure to get it in $1 denomination bills to maximize the investment.
-
Exchange it for fiat notes as a ready source of toilet paper.
Did you know it would be cheaper to buy Venezuelan currency than to try and get a case of *expletive deleted*it paper these days?
1 USD to VEF = 248487.4508
A 30 pack of quilted northern is $24. $24 gets you 5963698.8192 Venezuelan. You could wipe your ass for years!
-
Did you know it would be cheaper to buy Venezuelan currency than to try and get a case of *expletive deleted*it paper these days?
1 USD to VEF = 248487.4508
A 30 pack of quilted northern is $24. $24 gets you 5963698.8192 Venezuelan. You could wipe your ass for years!
The smallest "Bolivar soberano" banknote you can get as of 2019 is the 10,000 Bolivar note. So you can get 5900 pieces of paper out of that value, if you can find someone that has 10k notes. I'm willing to bet they have fallen even farther since the most recent update on Wikipedia regarding their currency, and it may be that for 2020 they're only printing 100k notes or even larger.
I can't find any data on the paper/cotton content of the Bolivar Soberano notes though. Might be worse than public shytter TP.
-
The smallest "Bolivar soberano" banknote you can get as of 2019 is the 10,000 Bolivar note. So you can get 5900 pieces of paper out of that value, if you can find someone that has 10k notes. I'm willing to bet they have fallen even farther since the most recent update on Wikipedia regarding their currency, and it may be that for 2020 they're only printing 100k notes or even larger.
I can't find any data on the paper/cotton content of the Bolivar Soberano notes though. Might be worse than public shytter TP.
Just imagine your paper supply if you could get this much in ones . . .
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fupload.wikimedia.org%2Fwikipedia%2Fcommons%2F3%2F3e%2FZimbabwe_%24100_trillion_2009_Obverse.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
-
This guy needs to be silenced. (https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coronavirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/) We cannot afford to inject any sanity into the COVID-19 panic.
-
This guy needs to be silenced. (https://www.thecollegefix.com/stanford-epidemiologist-warns-that-coronavirus-crackdown-is-based-on-bad-data/) We cannot afford to inject any sanity into the COVID-19 panic.
Tell that to the hospitals in Italy right now. For a smart dude, he skips right over how the first world health care system in Italy has been crushed under the weight of caring for people on ventilators.
Let's say he's in fact correct. The corrected death rate is low, because of the walking wounded/asymptomatic. I believe that's probably true anyway.
The problem with his argument is that among the people who test positive, a very high number end up in the hospital.
Read up on what it's doing to their healthcare system. Because clearly your source didn't bother.
-
I think your primary error is assuming that Italy is a homogeneous 1st world country.
-
I think your primary error is assuming that Italy is a homogeneous 1st world country.
According to the WHO, they're ranked #2 in the world for efficiency in their health care system, so....
In 10 days, we'll have at least 6 major cities including New York where the hospitals are war zones.
I'm doubling down on my prediction that the US ends up with the most overall confirmed cases, and ends up with a very high death toll.
-
I think your primary error is assuming that Italy is a homogeneous 1st world country.
I'm not saying they don't have some deficiencies, but statistically they look pretty good: More hospital beds per capita and a longer life expectancy.
We have higher rates of those underlying conditions that exacerbate the corona virus like diabetes and high blood pressure.
Maybe our lower average age and lower smoking rate will be enough to make up for it but I'm not counting on it.
Certain parts of Italy got hit hard. I think certain parts of the US will get hit just as hard.
-
According to the WHO, they're ranked #2 in the world for efficiency in their health care system, so....
They seem to rank systems much higher if all the money to pay for it is taken out before you get your paycheck (you never saw it thus it's "free"!) compared to systems where you're given the choice to pay for it somewhat or mostly if not all afterwards.
-
They seem to rank systems much higher if all the money to pay for it is taken out before you get your paycheck (you never saw it thus it's "free"!) compared to systems where you're given the choice to pay for it somewhat or mostly if not all afterwards.
https://www.who.int/healthinfo/paper30.pdf
Read it yourself.
The top 50 are all first world countries, mostly western with a few of the rich Middle East or Asian countries.
They rank it off of a number of factors including things like available hospital beds, etc etc.
But hey, they're a paltry #6 in life expectancy.
https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/life-expectancy/
Oh! Here's a list we beat the *expletive deleted*ck out of them on....
The obesity list. They're #107. We're #12
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2228rank.html
Do I agree with nationalized, single payer health care? No. But some countries do it well. Italy is much healthier than the United States.
-
According to the WHO, they're ranked #2 in the world for efficiency in their health care system, so....
So suddenly the WHO is above reproach and infallible? I've seen plenty of criticism here and elsewhere about them, particularly for their heavy socialist bent and a strong penchant towards demonizing anything American.
-
So suddenly the WHO is above reproach and infallible? I've seen plenty of criticism here and elsewhere about them, particularly for their heavy socialist bent and a strong penchant towards demonizing anything American.
No organization is above reproach. I provided other non who sources of indications of Italians enjoying better health than Americans....so...
-
Let's say he's in fact correct.
There are other things that the author has never thought of, that most others haven't considered either out of sheer hubris.
We know very little about the after effects of an infection.
Does the initial infection permanently damage lungs/organs/testes?
Does the initial infection actually clear, or does it lie dormant in cerebral spinal fluid, waiting to come out an play another day, like herpes?
Are reinfections possible, and if so, how much more severe are they?
Are reports of cytokine storm 'sudden death' true from re-infection? https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30628-0/fulltext?rss=yes
Without knowing the answers to all of the above, I'd prefer to NOT be infected in the first place. This is all new, and any missteps can cause a catastrophe, if we aren't heading for one already.
-
Just to keep things in perspective -
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalization-rates-high-children-young-adults/ (https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalization-rates-high-children-young-adults/)
-
Just to keep things in perspective -
https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalization-rates-high-children-young-adults/ (https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/03/13/us-flu-death-toll-hits-k-hospitalization-rates-high-children-young-adults/)
Which compounds the Kung-flu problem. If people are getting hospitalized at a high rate for regular flu, too, that really will tax the healthcare system. If it breaks, old people are being left in hallways to die, just like Italy.
-
Perspective- they don't shut down the entire country to prevent 20,000 flu deaths... just how many deaths are we expecting?
-
Don't know where it fits in, but I just heard on the news that of all reported cases in NY (don't know if they meant state or city), 18% required hospitalization.
-
Don't know where it fits in, but I just heard on the news that of all reported cases in NY (don't know if they meant state or city), 18% required hospitalization.
But again that's skewed due to lack of testing. They aren't hardly testing people unless they may need hospitalization.
A friend of my wife's in NYC got tested (came back positive yesterday). Took a week and a half, multiple ER visits to get it and it took 4 days to get the results once it was taken.
-
But again that's skewed due to lack of testing.
That's certainly something to be considered. That kind of number getting thrown around will cause undue panic without consideration of the statistics.
-
For you It’s just the flu types......
https://vimeo.com/398334975
Video from an Italian hospital treating COVID patients.
-
Which is still FAR fewer than the number of Americans we'll lose to the scourge of gnu violence in the same span! BAN GNUS NOW!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u4oQPJYM02A
-
For you It’s just the flu types......
https://vimeo.com/398334975
Video from an Italian hospital treating COVID patients.
That looks a lot like one I've seen come out of china a month or so ago, except with a lot less corpses.
-
Illinois is apparently going to Shelter in Place... https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/gov-pritzker-to-issue-shelter-in-place-order-for-illinois-beginning-saturday/
Means the IA, MN, and WI will probably doing the same. Fudge!!!
-
I'm expecting Virginia to eventually go that route. That's one reason why I'm taking Seren to my friends'. She'll have a big yard to run around in.
-
I'm expecting Virginia to eventually go that route. That's one reason why I'm taking Seren to my friends'. She'll have a big yard to run around in.
My office has definitely been acting as though that is what they are expecting, too.
-
Illinois is apparently going to Shelter in Place... https://wgntv.com/news/coronavirus/gov-pritzker-to-issue-shelter-in-place-order-for-illinois-beginning-saturday/
Means the IA, MN, and WI will probably doing the same. Fudge!!!
Yeah. I was talking to our engineer today. Our site leader has applied for federal exemptions/passes for critical industry or something like that. Lock downs are almost certainly coming.
-
Here's a prediction I made on the 17th, though it wasn't recommended and put on the public side of Ricochet until today.
https://ricochet.com/732418/wuhan2k/
-
Here's a prediction I made on the 17th, though it wasn't recommended and put on the public side of Ricochet until today.
https://ricochet.com/732418/wuhan2k/
Few pause to consider that maybe the Y2K roll-over was no big deal because we “over-reacted,” and mitigated the disaster before it could occur. In the same way, I predict that people in late 2020 (us) will mock those idiots (us) who hoarded toilet paper* and canceled sportsball. Even though we idiots are saving (some of) their lives. Let’s hope so.
Good stuff. It's wild that the only way to know if they overreacted would have been to do nothing.
-
Good stuff.
Thanks.
-
Good stuff. It's wild that the only way to know if they overreacted would have been to do nothing.
Exactly.
In other news, China list 15 million cell phone subscribers in the last 2 months... take that any way you like, whether it be that people discontinued their service from job loss, or that they no longer have a need for cell phones.
-
Exactly.
In other news, China list 15 million cell phone subscribers in the last 2 months... take that any way you like, whether it be that people discontinued their service from job loss, or that they no longer have a need for cell phones.
I also read this. Should probably try to find it on /pol/ and look into it further.
Edit to add, if someone does not realize why this is A Big Deal: your entire online identity is tied to your phone number in China - social media, banking, social credit score, paying for everything from chewing gum to haircuts, it is all connected to your primary cell phone number.
-
I also read this. Should probably try to find it on /pol/ and look into it further.
Edit to add, if someone does not realize why this is A Big Deal: your entire online identity is tied to your phone number in China - social media, banking, social credit score, paying for everything from chewing gum to haircuts, it is all connected to your primary cell phone number.
I found that on /pol/ the other night. There are 3 major phone companies in China, which showed the loss of subscribers...
I remember seeing videos last month with a giant pile of cell phones from people coming into the hospitals. I imagine they were taken away right away to try to stop the information from getting out plus the expectation that people checking into the hospitals weren’t ever going to leave.
ETA: this would explain the chatter about Chinese government put an order in for a huge number of incinerators .
-
Speaking of China: I’ve been grilling one of our buyers (the only one still on site) about shipments from China...
Our Shanghai site is apparantly still up. One of our suppliers in Wuhan did just send us some shipments (we don’t know when it will get in yet), but the materials all have a 2019 lot. So it seems they are just shipping inventory. We have no idea if they are actually up and running.
Luckily we have other suppliers for the same materials in South Korea and Taiwan.
-
I found that on /pol/ the other night. There are 3 major phone companies in China, which showed the loss of subscribers...
I remember seeing videos last month with a giant pile of cell phones from people coming into the hospitals. I imagine they were taken away right away to try to stop the information from getting out plus the expectation that people checking into the hospitals weren’t ever going to leave.
ETA: this would explain the chatter about Chinese government put an order in for a huge number of incinerators .
I first read about it on a Facebook page, then I went to look at /pol/ today. There´s one active thread and 3 archived ones about it last I looked.
-
I first read about it on a Facebook page, then I went to look at /pol/ today. There´s one active thread and 3 archived ones about it last I looked.
There’s almost too much to wade through. There is always an open thread about Corona Chan, which probably gets archived more than once a day.
-
There’s almost too much to wade through. There is always an open thread about Corona Chan, which probably gets archived more than once a day.
I meant that the archived ones were still open to read on 4chan rather than having to go to one of the archiving sites.
-
I predict in less than 3 weeks after this over, people will start to not trust the scientists and doctors again.
-
I predict in less than 3 weeks after this over, people will start to not trust the scientists and doctors again.
Public trust in the intelligencia has declined in the past few decades, It is well-deserved. Scientists, apparently, not so much.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/22/public-confidence-in-scientists-has-remained-stable-for-decades/
Science is not supposed to be about trusting the pronouncements of some special caste of people, anyway.
-
Public trust in the intelligencia has declined in the past few decades, It is well-deserved. Scientists, apparently, not so much.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/22/public-confidence-in-scientists-has-remained-stable-for-decades/
Science is not supposed to be about trusting the pronouncements of some special caste of people, anyway.
Unless it is about a subject wherein "The Science Is Settled" like globular warmulating. The not trusting the chosen peoples is evil and criminal and badthink.
-
Unless it is about a subject wherein "The Science Is Settled" like globular warmulating. The not trusting the chosen peoples is evil and criminal and badthink.
What happens when you politicize the science.
-
Public trust in the intelligencia has declined in the past few decades, It is well-deserved. Scientists, apparently, not so much.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/03/22/public-confidence-in-scientists-has-remained-stable-for-decades/
Science is not supposed to be about trusting the pronouncements of some special caste of people, anyway.
One would think otherwise, with the antivaxx (and other) movements.
-
What happens when you politicize the science.
That's how you get manmade climate change wealth redistribution schemes...
-
Very long read with predictions
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
-
Very long read with predictions
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
Pretty much says we are tanking our economy without justification or reason. COVID-19 is not worth all the FUD.
But don't let actual hard data prevent you from getting your panic on.
-
What happens when you politicize the science.
Like checking people's temperature at airports? It's Scientology , not science. This is the gun control of epidemiology, It's what you do instead of something. Along with passing a dem's wetdream list of free *expletive deleted*it bills.
-
But don't let actual hard data prevent you from getting your panic on.
A big reason there is panic is because we don't have that actual hard data.
We don't have the data South Korea has - testing, contact tracing, temperature logs when people go anywhere, surveillance.
We don't have the options China does (thankfully) to literally lock people in their apartments and have the military kill anyone who tries to flee the city.
Our testing rate is just getting caught up now, and those test results that are coming back today were taken a few days ago by people who got infected over a week ago.
when you’re dealing with an emerging infectious diseases outbreak, you are always behind where you think you are if you think that today reflects where you really are.
Once testing is up to speed, we can hopefully scale back a bit with the lock down.
-
One would think otherwise, with the antivaxx (and other) movements.
According to the link, confidence in science is slightly up, but confidence in medicine has gone way down.
I've been wondering if this whole thing would scotch anti-vax. I guess we'll see.
-
Go back and read the article again, Dittohead. The data is there, both historical and recent. The panic is not now and was not ever justified.
-
Rocketman, your link is full of *expletive deleted*it.
https://www.nbcchicago.com/top-videos-home/chicago-doctors-blunt-speech-about-covid-19-hits-home-across-the-country/2241880/?fbclid=IwAR2DLKKEEnftmAEdNNeRWBGyrnW3yY7OFzU04t71ZGnpg-IFNaMSavcaEUw
Dr. Emily Landon is the chief infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Chicago Medicine, who moments after Pritzker issued the ordinance to take effect Saturday evening, took to the stand with a 7-minute-long speech that went viral after striking a chord for many individuals.
-
The link may or may not offer accurate information.
The problem is statistics aren't reality. They are entirely dependent on thorough information. Almost every BS farce and propaganda push is backed up by statistics.
There are multiple competing stastistical models floating around out there.
Knowing this I'm more tolerant of the extreme measures designed to slow a potential pandemic nationwide.
There are yuuge downsides to what we are doing to the economy but if a large percentage of the population is dead or dieing the economy is going to crash anyway.
The people aren't for the economy, the economy is for the people.
-
Very long read with predictions
https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894
The post is suspended. The link brings up a message: "This post is under investigation or was found in violation of the Medium Rules."
That might be because the website is on the side of truth and has suspended the story because it's not true, or because the website is fake news and has suspended the story because it is true, depending on what particular belief set one holds . . . .
[tinfoil]
-
Rocketman, your link is full of *expletive deleted*it.
https://www.nbcchicago.com/top-videos-home/chicago-doctors-blunt-speech-about-covid-19-hits-home-across-the-country/2241880/?fbclid=IwAR2DLKKEEnftmAEdNNeRWBGyrnW3yY7OFzU04t71ZGnpg-IFNaMSavcaEUw
I'm not going to play dueling links with you, Jamis. You're too invested in the "We're all gonna die!" side of things. Nothing I put up will sway your opinion.
-
Rand Paul tested positive for Covid-19. I wonder if he'll change his tune.
-
Rand Paul tested positive for Covid-19. I wonder if he'll change his tune.
What tune has he been singing?
-
Rand Paul tested positive for Covid-19. I wonder if he'll change his tune.
Rand Paul doesn't trust doctors?
-
What tune has he been singing?
IIRC he has been saying the Covid-19 threat is overblown.
-
If it kills him then he'll probably think he was wrong. If he only has a week or so of feeling like *expletive deleted*it then he'll probably think he was right.
Let's check back in a couple of weeks and see how it turns out.
-
If it kills him then he'll probably think he was wrong.
If it kills him he won't be thinking anything
-
I'm pretty sure that "this is an unwarranted panic" doesn't mean, "I could never get this disease."
-
Got a Robo-call from Louisiana's Governor this morning and this posted on govt sites:
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fherohog.com%2Fimages%2Fmisc%2FStayAtHomeOrder.jpg&hash=79ce60ae0512644530abda0a4c5abb819fef48f4)
Does the 21' rule/Tueller Drill apply to EVERYONE now? [ar15]
-
Got a Robo-call from Louisiana's Governor this morning and this posted on govt sites:
(https://armedpolitesociety.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fherohog.com%2Fimages%2Fmisc%2FStayAtHomeOrder.jpg&hash=79ce60ae0512644530abda0a4c5abb819fef48f4)
Does the 21' rule/Tueller Drill apply to EVERYONE now? [ar15]
Works for me.
-
IIRC he has been saying the Covid-19 threat is overblown.
Thought that was Ron Paul?
-
They will increase testing, they will find a lot more people who have it or had it, none of which has anything to do with the ONLY thing that matters- how many will die, and how old or compromised are they? The death rate out of Italy, highest in the world, and All OLDER than 80, and most with other conditions.
The acknowledged death rate on this is going to drop like a stone, when they keep finding more non or mildly symptomatic people. My bet is it is way more prevalent in the population than they think, and far less serious.
"don't let a crisis go to waste". And if you don't have one, invent or exacerbate one.
-
This will transfer over to our swine herds and kill a lot of pigs.
-
The death rate out of Italy, highest in the world, and All OLDER than 80, and most with other conditions.
This is demonstrably untrue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics
-
This is demonstrably untrue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics
Just eyeballing the numbers, it looks like there is something pretty close to a normal distribution curve between ages 50-90+... with the mean being somewhere above 80... I didn't crunch the numbers, just eyeballing.
-
This will transfer over to our swine herds and kill a lot of pigs.
And the pigs will name it "Man flu".
-
This is demonstrably untrue.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Italy#Statistics
You are correct- 80 was the median. My mistake.
This English language PDF from the Italian covid 19 surveillance group lays out the infections, deaths, ages and co-morbidity- much less frightening than the MSM BS.
It is a short, and clear report.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
On a sample set of 3200 deaths-through March 20
1.1% of fatalities were under 50.
For the 9 deaths of people under 40, there was no data on 2, the other 7 had "serious" co-morbidities..
Of all deaths, 1.2% had no co-morbidities, 48% had three co-morbidities and over.
This is a disease that kills the old and compromised, like many other sicknesses. Our panic is totally unwarranted.
-
You are correct- 80 was the median. My mistake.
This English language PDF from the Italian covid 19 surveillance group lays out the infections, deaths, ages and co-morbidity- much less frightening than the MSM BS.
It is a short, and clear report.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
On a sample set of 3200 deaths-through March 20
1.1% of fatalities were under 50.
For the 9 deaths of people under 40, there was no data on 2, the other 7 had "serious" co-morbidities..
Of all deaths, 1.2% had no co-morbidities, 48% had three co-morbidities and over.
This is a disease that kills the old and compromised, like many other sicknesses. Our panic is totally unwarranted.
;/ Jeez, thanks for that reassurance.
-
Our panic is totally unwarranted.
There has been a wide spectrum of responses, some of them rational (restricting travel from problem areas) and some not (hoarding toilet paper).
Individuals voluntarily making a minor adjustment such as working from home or delaying a vacation are very different than the government forcing closures or commandeering supplies.
Some of the responses make sense for certain areas like northern Italy where it got out of control, or NYC where the infection rates are soaring but maybe not for the rural midwest.
So what response is warranted? Are there any countries/governments you can point to as an example that have approached this correctly and we should copy?
-
NYC where the infection rates are soaring but maybe not for the rural midwest.
Rural Midwest doesn't have the medical facilities/staffing for even in a few hundred (in a county or small city) required hospitalization from Covid-19.
Shelter in place for 15-30 days makes a lot of sense to spread out the infection over time.
-
There has been a wide spectrum of responses, some of them rational (restricting travel from problem areas) and some not (hoarding toilet paper).
Individuals voluntarily making a minor adjustment such as working from home or delaying a vacation are very different than the government forcing closures or commandeering supplies.
Some of the responses make sense for certain areas like northern Italy where it got out of control, or NYC where the infection rates are soaring but maybe not for the rural midwest.
So what response is warranted? Are there any countries/governments you can point to as an example that have approached this correctly and we should copy?
Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGl1YydafxY&feature=emb_logo
-
Israel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGl1YydafxY&feature=emb_logo
and who is going to take of grandma and grandpa in assistive living? Not like the staff there are 70 and 80 years old.
-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has decided to dramatically increase restrictions on movement and has drafted a resolution to allow no travel except for work, food, medicines and essentials to help stop the spread of coronavirus.
...
As this new round of restrictions rolls out, the country will introduce a massive aid program for self-employed individuals and small businesses. The plan is scheduled to be ready on Tuesday.
...
“We will gradually move toward imposing a lockdown, hundreds of thousands of additional people will be required not to go to work."
Doesn't sound much different from what's happening here. Maybe they still have TP though =|
-
The thing about shutting all this stuff down is this. Even if, and that is a big if, it works,
Just exactly what do they think is going to happen when they open things up again?
All it takes is one case and the whole cycle starts again.
They are killing small business in this country.
They are doing what China could not quite do by themselves.
If China was paying our leaders to destroy us, they could not do better.
We need to get immunity, and the only way to do that is to develop a vaccine , or to get sick and recover. Yes some people will die. We die every day. Lot's of us, from all sorts of reasons. Lot's of us will die from lost jobs too.
Do you think the "authorities" know what they are doing? The "shoulder thing that goes up" folks? The Dunning -Kruger effect is not just for reporters. The politicians are idiots too. The only real skill most of them have ever been able to muster is manipulation, obfuscation and outright lying.
The media are doing with this exactly what they do with the "gun violence epidemic", and the gov and corporations are going along with it just like Dicks sporting goods.
We are being played for fools.
Go read this. Really. takes five minutes.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
-
The thing about shutting all this stuff down is this. Even if, and that is a big if, it works,
Just exactly what do they think is going to happen when they open things up again?
All it takes is one case and the whole cycle starts again.
They are killing small business in this country.
They are doing what China could not quite do by themselves.
If China was paying our leaders to destroy us, they could not do better.
We need to get immunity, and the only way to do that is to develop a vaccine , or to get sick and recover. Yes some people will die. We die every day. Lot's of us, from all sorts of reasons. Lot's of us will die from lost jobs too.
Do you think the "authorities" know what they are doing? The "shoulder thing that goes up" folks? The Dunning -Kruger effect is not just for reporters. The politicians are idiots too. The only real skill most of them have ever been able to muster is manipulation, obfuscation and outright lying.
The media are doing with this exactly what they do with the "gun violence epidemic", and the gov and corporations are going along with it just like Dicks sporting goods.
We are being played for fools.
Go read this. Really. takes five minutes.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
So which 60+ year olds that you know of would you be willing to sacrifice to save a small business?
Realize also, that Italy isn't treating people over 60, so that the hospital beds go to younger people- typically people who are in the professional prime of their lives.
It is entirely possible to not only sacrifice a large chunk of people over 60, but also between 0-60, if enough people get sick at the same time.
-
So which 60+ year olds that you know of would you be willing to sacrifice to save a small business?
Realize also, that Italy isn't treating people over 60, so that the hospital beds go to younger people- typically people who are in the professional prime of their lives.
It is entirely possible to not only sacrifice a large chunk of people over 60, but also between 0-60, if enough people get sick at the same time.
The Italian data is pretty clear- only about 1% of people without other problems die from this. The vast majority have several other medical issues and are also over sixty, with most being over seventy.
Look, this is pretty simple- isolate the most vulnerable, and let the rest go about their business. There is no free lunch- some will get infected, and a tiny minority of those will die. End of story.
But killing an economy will devastate this country in ways that no one seems to be even willing to discuss. And the MSM, and the politicians are jumping all over themselves to do it. It has a huge cost. Economic. social, and political. Ask yourself why THIS TIME it is so much worse- I maintain the virus is not the reason for the reaction, but an excuse for it.
You know how *expletive deleted*ing bad the panic is? My trucking company just emailed me and said some deliveries are not being accepted because virus. Extrapolate that for a bit and see where it leads.
How long do you think we can stay locked in a box, and have a country ?
-
How long do you think we can stay locked in a box, and have a country ?
[Pelosi]Just as long as it takes to *expletive deleted*ck over Trump's shot at re-election. [/Pelosi]
-
The Italian data is pretty clear- only about 1% of people without other problems die from this. The vast majority have several other medical issues and are also over sixty, with most being over seventy.
Look, this is pretty simple- isolate the most vulnerable, and let the rest go about their business. There is no free lunch- some will get infected, and a tiny minority of those will die. End of story.
But killing an economy will devastate this country in ways that no one seems to be even willing to discuss. And the MSM, and the politicians are jumping all over themselves to do it. It has a huge cost. Economic. social, and political. Ask yourself why THIS TIME it is so much worse- I maintain the virus is not the reason for the reaction, but an excuse for it.
You know how *expletive deleted*ing bad the panic is? My trucking company just emailed me and said some deliveries are not being accepted because virus. Extrapolate that for a bit and see where it leads.
How long do you think we can stay locked in a box, and have a country ?
If our governmental reactions (at all levels) to CV are to make any sense at all, then we had damn well better react the same way, shut down the entire f-ing country and blow our economy to sh-t, each and every flu season. And for the common cold season. And several other common illnesses that come to mind.
Our damn leaders have lost their collective minds, and the MSM has been cheering them on with every medium at their disposal.
Yeah, I'm pissed off.
-
Some of you need to watch some of the videos from the hospitals in Italy and get back to us.
-
Ask yourself why THIS TIME it is so much worse- I maintain the virus is not the reason for the reaction, but an excuse for it.
Do you believe all the others countries that shut down are in on this, just to screw over Trump or something? If anyone would be willing to let people die to save their economy it would probably be China, yet they shut down too.
-
watch some of the videos from the hospitals in Italy and get back to us.
600 deaths for just today reported in Italy
-
I expect to see some Statist legislation, soon, that socializes immunizations. Free immunizations for all.
And makes it a criminal matter to refuse or avoid them.
Someone is going to push the button on that controversy.
Hate all you want on anti-vaxxers, but I agree with them on one point: I own my body. You may not penetrate my skin without my permission.
-
Yes, Italy is having a hard time of it, but there are several factors unique to them that are behind their problems. Comparing Italy to the USA and assuming we're going to have the same problems is apples and oranges. I'm surprised you haven't figured that out with all your research, Jamis.
And DittoHead, very simply the media in other countries are perfectly capable of blowing things out of proportion just as ours is. They want to increase their media ratings and sell TV ads and newspapers just like our crappy MSM does in this country. I don't know why you keep injecting Trump into what they are doing.
ETA: And "diphit hoaxers". Really? Granted, you are an admin, but the name calling is inappropriate.
-
I don't know why you keep injecting Trump into what they are doing.
Are you kidding?
Anything to defeat GOP election hopes in November.
[Pelosi]Just as long as it takes to *expletive deleted*ck over Trump's shot at re-election. [/Pelosi]
-
ETA: And "diphit hoaxers". Really? Granted, you are an admin, but the name calling is inappropriate.
Some animals are absolutely more equal than others ;/, even if I agree with Jamis on the Kung Flu thing.
-
Are you kidding?
Yes, that's what's happening in this country. The CV provided the DNC and their media arm a golden opportunity to tank the economy, and they can now beat Trump over the head with it in November. They have tried and failed to talk us into a recession more than once in the last couple of years, but have finally succeeded this time.
Other countries and their reactions to the CV don't have a thing to do with Trump. For the most part, they don't give a rat's rear end if he sinks or swims come November. Their various media are perfectly capable of making fools of themselves without Trumps's help. Their media wants clicks and to sell ads and increase their ratings, too. It's called making money. That's why I don't understand why you keep making that comparison.
-
Some animals are absolutely more equal than others ;/, even if I agree with Jamis on the Kung Flu thing.
To clarify, yes I do believe CV is a serious illness, especially for those with compromised immune systems. But when all of the CV hysteria is over we will come to realize that there were far fewer infections and far fewer deaths from CV than there are in a typical flu season. This will be true in most countries.
The exception to this may be Italy as there are some unique factors in play there that are exacerbating their problems with CV. We will have to wait and see after this is over, and whether they can gather enough accurate information, to know for sure if CV beats out a typical flu season for them.
-
To clarify, yes I do believe CV is a serious illness, especially for those with compromised immune systems. But when all of the CV hysteria is over we will come to realize that there were far fewer infections and far fewer deaths from CV than there are in a typical flu season. This will be true in most countries.
The exception to this may be Italy as there are some unique factors in play there that are exacerbating their problems with CV. We will have to wait and see after this is over, and whether they can gather enough accurate information, to know for sure if CV beats out a typical flu season for them.
Agreed, we'll see eventually.
The mod double standards are still chicken *expletive deleted*it.
-
To clarify, yes I do believe CV is a serious illness, especially for those with compromised immune systems. But when all of the CV hysteria is over we will come to realize that there were far fewer infections and far fewer deaths from CV than there are in a typical flu season. This will be true in most countries.
The exception to this may be Italy as there are some unique factors in play there that are exacerbating their problems with CV. We will have to wait and see after this is over, and whether they can gather enough accurate information, to know for sure if CV beats out a typical flu season for them.
US flu deaths for the 19-20 season have topped 23,000.
As far as getting accurate info, never gonna happen. There will be absolutely no way to know how many people actually had COVID-19 to compare with how many cases proved fatal.
Yes I agree that it is a nasty bug but not near nasty enough to destroy the worlds economy over.
-
Gentleman from BOTH viewpoints:
Let's keep this civil. This is a hot issue which is having a large personal impact on all of us. However, we are working with incomplete information about something which is new. We're all getting various bits of information and trying to make sense of them. Of course, we're going to come to different conclusions.
Attack the argument if you wish, but respect the other person. We're better then that.
-
Their media wants clicks and to sell ads and increase their ratings, too. It's called making money. That's why I don't understand why you keep making that comparison.
Why are all those governments listening to them? At least here you could (not convincingly) claim the deep state at the CDC is giving out bad advice too. It takes more than overzealous media to get some of these governments to do this to their economies. Some of these places have state run media - they're not doing this just for ad $$.
-
You diphit hoaxers need to watch some of the videos from the hospitals in Italy and get back to us.
I have. They are old people, mostly sick already, most with multiple illnesses, who got one that pushed them over the edge. Happens every year when the flu goes through a nursing home.
Instead of reacting emotionally to the meadia hype, why don't you read what the Italian Coronavirus surveillance group said about it. It's clear as day, English even.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
-
While you are comparing Italy and the US let's compare Nurse to Patient ratio. It has been proven time and time again that inadequate nursing care will cause a higher mortality. The last I saw a study about EU staffing ratios Italy was one of the worst at abot 8.5-9 patients per nurse. With a workload like that things are missed and there is too much illness to go around. It's the Nurses that keep you alive in the middle of the night so the next time your local Nurse's Union is in negotiations with the Hospital machine go out and support them. They are the ones who will keep you alive.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/jan.13066
https://international.commonwealthfund.org/countries/italy/
While not Italy the problem is universal.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6033178/
Italy was rapidly overwhelmed with patients they could not care for and got behind the curve quickly and with the rapid growth of the disease they were screwed.
Thank your Nurse, Wash yer Hands!!
bob
-
I have. They are old people, mostly sick already, most with multiple illnesses, who got one that pushed them over the edge. Happens every year when the flu goes through a nursing home.
Instead of reacting emotionally to the meadia hype, why don't you read what the Italian Coronavirus surveillance group said about it. It's clear as day, English even.
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf
Okay, so old people with comorbidities are very very heavily represented in the 481 deaths in this study. Cool, lets run with that.
Is the US population more, or less healthy the Italians? Various sources suggest we are less healthy overall. [1 (https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/healthiest-countries/)]. But, whatever, lets say it's apples to apples. Lets say we're just as healthy as the Italians.
Also on that site you keep linking to, is this helpful infographic: https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Infografica_21marzo%20ENG.pdf It's got CFR numbers listed per age group.
So lets say this is a media frenzy false flag hoax. If we let this just rip, and say 50% of the US population got COVID19 before herd immunity caused it to peter out (optimistic), based on this information, what would that look like? I'm going to be a little lazy here and lump everyone 80+ together at the 80 year old CFR.
Age group 30-39: 43.69 million Americans * 50% infection rate * 0.3% CFR = 70k dead.
Age group 40-49: 40.46 million Americans * 50% infection rate * 0.5% CFR = 100k dead.
Age group 50-59: 42.83 million Americans * 50% infection rate * 1.2% CFR = 250k dead.
Age group 60-69: 37.41 million Americans * 50% infection rate * 4.5% CFR = 800k dead.
Age group 70-79: 22.66 million Americans * 50% infection rate * 14% CFR = 1.5m dead.
Age group 80+: 12.68 million Americans * 50% infection rate * 21.3% CFR = 1.3m dead.
So 4 million dead Americans.
-
Age group 60-69: 37.41 million Americans * 50% infection rate * 4.5% CFR = 800k dead.
Lesse, 63 next month, morbidly overweight, cancer, Type II Diabetes, Blood pressure "ok" with meds, some heart issues, and LOTS of other stuff that probably won't kill me but make life pretty sucky.
I'll be fine. Everything's just fine. :old:
-
(https://i.imgur.com/eH460Hy.jpg)
-
21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
https://youtu.be/wfDAcuSMSZo
-
CDC says coronavirus survived in Princess Cruise ship cabins for up to 17 days after passengers left
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/cdc-coronavirus-survived-in-princess-cruise-cabins-up-to-17-days-after-passengers-left.html
-
I shouldn’t have resorted to name calling and I apologize. And yes 1) it violates the code of conduct of APS 2) I’ve been called out by other moderators on it.
-
I shouldn’t have resorted to name calling and I apologize. And yes 1) it violates the code of conduct of APS 2) I’ve been called out by other moderators on it.
Thanks, Jamis. Apology accepted.
-
https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1242245135129346050&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fmar%2F24%2Folder-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick
Well, here's one guy who is willing to sacrifice the elderly on the altar of the almighty dollar.
-
https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1242245135129346050&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fmar%2F24%2Folder-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick
Well, here's one guy who is willing to sacrifice the elderly on the altar of the almighty dollar.
From the quote, he said they were willing to take a risk and NOT shut down the entire economy.
That's a far cry from, "Let's kill off Grandma!" It's a measured risk that can be rationally disagreed about. Those elderly can much more easily, with much smaller disruptions, self-quarantine. Few of them have jobs and have to go out.
If they're really concerned, the state/city/county/neighbors/etc... can provide delivery services to the at risk population and allow them to self-quarantine more easily.
-
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html
Make America 2009 Again!
or
Welcome to ZimbabwUSA
-
I read this guy pretty regularly, he's been running a series about this event.
He, like some here, is absolutely mortified by the government/social response and unreasonable panic.
In a couple weeks we'll have a better idea of who is right.
A lot of his discussion is well out of my wheel house, he's a statistician.
https://wmbriggs.com/post/29886/
-
https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1242245135129346050?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1242245135129346050&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fworld%2F2020%2Fmar%2F24%2Folder-people-would-rather-die-than-let-covid-19-lockdown-harm-us-economy-texas-official-dan-patrick
Well, here's one guy who is willing to sacrifice the elderly on the altar of the almighty dollar.
Listening to the actual interview, that is not at all what he said. He said he was told by elderly people that they were not willing to destroy the country just to guarantee their own survival. That makes some sense.
If we are going to sacrifice Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness in order to guarantee Life, I think most will find that isn't a very good trade in the long run. Short term events like this can have very lasting impact. I think there is a way to get through this without that sort of trade off.
-
Epidemiologist bucking the trend.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?fbclid=IwAR0KTjKo-TO06FbceRno2yptgSmnBSe9BX80NztGXNCRf6UCIc5cgJiFffw
-
Epidemiologist bucking the trend.
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate?fbclid=IwAR0KTjKo-TO06FbceRno2yptgSmnBSe9BX80NztGXNCRf6UCIc5cgJiFffw
Except he's relying on Chinese data...
The Chinese death toll stopped at around 3000 because the Winnie the Pooh declared that the COVID-19 deaths would stop.
-
Except he's relying on Chinese data...
The Chinese death toll stopped at around 3000 because the Winnie the Pooh declared that the COVID-19 deaths would stop.
That's one reason I'm not freaking about the shutdown.
As a plebe I have very unreliable sources of information in general.
My hueristic is if a politician or China says it, beware! If the media reports it consider the opposite of the reporting as the potential truth 😁
-
A quote from a friend, he's an really annoying numbers engineering guy.
Tuberculosis is the only disease that kills more people per day, as of today. By this weekend covid-19 will be the deadliest disease on our planet in terms of daily deaths. #1 spot in 8 weeks. I sincerely hope that its decline is as fast as its rise.
The chart he referenced (global not just USA)
(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/90821670_10157539168513375_1276859142484525056_n.jpg?_nc_cat=111&_nc_sid=8024bb&_nc_oc=AQlzwVM3rON38G9RDQ50udwEYS3VXFIMuIL0fIk40x1d_GB9LQ1CiF_uCwh4LEJzAsk&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=421fb8d8699aa70a47edf6008bc35145&oe=5E9F2AA7)
-
21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll
https://youtu.be/wfDAcuSMSZo
Well, I *AM* in a days walking distance from Boulder CO. So I got that going for me. =D
My gut tells me this is gonna get REAL ugly in the U.S. REAL soon. Numbers of cases are on the up-slope, I'm reading of Hospitals on the East coast near the breaking point and staff getting sick due to no PPE for them.
But then, back in the day my gut told me that one of our male friends visiting my ex in the evening while I was at work was not a problem.
Does that seam right to you? :P
-
"21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll"
;/
It could also suggest something else... say... China shutting down huge numbers of cell phone users to keep them from easily getting information out about the virus. But China wouldn't do that, would they?
-
"21 Million Fewer Cellphone Users in China May Suggest a High CCP Virus Death Toll"
;/
It could also suggest something else... say... China shutting down huge numbers of cell phone users to keep them from easily getting information out about the virus. But China wouldn't do that, would they?
Hell, the simplest answer is they lost jobs and can't pay the bill.
I don't believe China at all. They need the world economy to start back up more than Trump does. But I really doubt that 15million+ died in china and there's not been a peep about it.
Not even China could hide 15 million deaths.
-
Not even China could hide 15 million deaths.
With Tor, etc., even in a clamped down society like China, something that big would get out. If nothing else, all those "incinerator" images would be about 1000X more prevalent.
-
The Chinese phone thing could be the government mandating everyone change over to 5G so they could have the latest and greatest phone tech to better control their citizens. Corona virus may have thrown a wrench in the process.
-
15 million dead is a lot of mass graves, and you would think that various governments or private industry would be releasing the satellite images.
-
15 million dead is a lot of mass graves, and you would think that various governments or private industry would be releasing the satellite images.
Ashes don't require mass graves you can see from space.
https://prepforthat.com/china-coronavirus-mobile-incinerators/
-
I think that some portion of the Chinese figures for lost cell phone lines is the dead, but I'm guessing that number is going to be in the 6 figures, not 7 or 8. Whatever Italy has for a CFR, multiplied by their population difference. I personally peg China's death number from Covid to be around 200,000 +/- 20%.
Despite all their censorship, we're too connected and rumors and testimony through personal phone calls to family etc. would be leaking out.
-
People are working on ways to convert CPAP machines to ventilators... there is a supposed to be a working prototype being submitted to the FDA. Let's hope it gets approved asap. Then the plans can be distributed to whoever needs them.
-
US data, plotted on a log scale:
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/81/CoViD-19_US.svg)
We can break this with VERY aggressive action, but judging by what a lockdown looks like in Kansas City, it doesn't seem aggressive enough.
-
Not even China could hide 15 million deaths.
Are you sure about that?
It was several decades before it became generally accepted that Mao murdered more people than Hitler and Stalin combined. To this day, there is still NO accurate accounting from the current Chinese leadership.
-
Are you sure about that?
It was several decades before it became generally accepted that Mao murdered more people than Hitler and Stalin combined. To this day, there is still NO accurate accounting from the current Chinese leadership.
I wouldn't put it past them, don't get me wrong. With how interconnected the world is, it would be pretty hard to pull off.
-
There is an immense amount of conflicting information out there.
We're hunkering down and keeping to ourselves still. Went to the local grocery (not a chain) today and they were well stocked, not busy.
Wiped everything down when we got home.
Playing it safe for now as I'm in a major metro area, Chicagoland.
-
100k cases as of yesterday.
We're definitely headed for over 200k, maybe more.
The cities that are hotzones are going to be hellholes for a little while. Well, Chicago was already a hellhole....
-
I wouldn't put it past them, don't get me wrong. With how interconnected the world is, it would be pretty hard to pull off.
Honestly with the way the MSM has been acting lately seemingly doing everything they can to make us look bad and our enemies look good it wouldn't surprise me one bit if they would try to bury or at the very least distort it. I've become quite cynical when it comes to the MSM and their motives.
-
I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.
-
I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.
I’m guessing way less than that. I don’t have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.
In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing. The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.
-
I’m guessing way less than that. I don’t have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.
In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing. The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.
I hope you're right, but we've also got a long way to go.
-
I hope you're right, but we've also got a long way to go.
As sadistic as this sounds, we're just getting started and it's been a fustercluck from the start, the all ready loaded medical/hospital system is going to crash hard, plus we simply don't have enough medical aids/nurses/drs nationwide for this.
Going to be like Italy where old people are just let to die and alone because of no visitors.
-
How many people were on the Disney Cruise ship? All mingling together, eating buffet, dancing, etc. while it was spreading. And only how many managed to get sick, and how many died? Yeah, it's a nothing burger just like all the other OMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE viruses that have popped up that the news would talk about constantly before we had the internet to really spread out constant updates. Imagine if the media came out with a BREAKING NEWS!! alert with every single time someone died from the flu and kept a number ticker scrolling across the bottom with the number of infected for the year...
Where's all of Japan's massive deaths from this new virus of the decade? The majority of their tourism is from China. Their population is largely older people. They have a very efficient mass transit system to allow people to travel from one place to another.
-
As sadistic as this sounds, we're just getting started and it's been a fustercluck from the start, the all ready loaded medical/hospital system is going to crash hard, plus we simply don't have enough medical aids/nurses/drs nationwide for this.
Going to be like Italy where old people are just let to die and alone because of no visitors.
Can one of the other admins change his screen name to "Little Ray of *expletive deleted*ing Sunshine"
=D
-
I’m guessing way less than that. I don’t have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.
In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing. The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.
I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high. I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations. NY, LA primarily.
Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.
-
I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high. I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations. NY, LA primarily.
Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.
I thought you were in the 2-3 million camp.
-
The local major hospital system is furloughing doctors and nurses...our healthcare system is run by idiots
-
I thought you were in the 2-3 million camp.
I supported that number if the government kept sitting on it's hands. My stand has been "do something or this is how bad it'll be"
-
I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high. I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations. NY, LA primarily.
Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.
If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine), we would likely end up at 20-30kk or so dead.
-
The local major hospital system is furloughing doctors and nurses...our healthcare system is run by idiots
As a general rule, hospitals and clinics are cancelling routine appointments, surgeries and anything that does not absolutely need to be in the hospital. This is to free up capacity for a COVID surge and to reduce the possibility of other patients and staff being infected. Accordingly, the non-COVID patient census is dropping like a rock, and providers and staff are sitting around with nothing to do and are being furloughed. You can't put a surgeon or a pediatrics nurse on duty taking care of ICU or COVID patients; they don't know what they are doing. Who is being hired are ICU providers and nurses, and respiratory therapists. Right now, if you want to do a temp gig as an ICU nurse in a NYC hospital, the temp agencies are offering you $ 5000/week.
-
I predict trust in the media and government will not recover as fast the nation does from the China Virus.
Unfortunately we'll never know whether we have been gaslighted or whether we we've been saved from certain death.
Meanwhile it looks like we have become a totalitarian Socialistic "democracy" without a vote cast or shot fired.
Damn they're good.
-
Unfortunately we'll never know whether we have been gaslighted or whether we we've been saved from certain death.
Sadly, this is kinda where I am. I still am leaning to the "more people are dying from the flu so why don't we quarantine from DEC-APR every year?" side, but between governments and media, I really don't know if we're overreacting or saving modern society. Right now I'm thinking reaction is necessary, but that we are way overreacting. I still believe the panic is worse than the disease.
-
Sadly, this is kinda where I am. I still am leaning to the "more people are dying from the flu so why don't we quarantine from DEC-APR every year?" side, but between governments and media, I really don't know if we're overreacting or saving modern society. Right now I'm thinking reaction is necessary, but that we are way overreacting. I still believe the panic is worse than the disease.
What's the daily flu death rate? Pretty sure Corona is now the number one daily fatal communicable disease in the world.
Italy's total case count has slowed, but their death rate is still going up.
-
If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine), we would likely end up at 20-30kk or so dead.
It wouldn't shock me if it's higher. Italy may have reached case peak, but their fatality rate is still going up. Scary *expletive deleted*it.
-
As a general rule, hospitals and clinics are cancelling routine appointments, surgeries and anything that does not absolutely need to be in the hospital. This is to free up capacity for a COVID surge and to reduce the possibility of other patients being infected. Accordingly, the non-COVID patient census is dropping like a rock, and providers and staff are sitting around with nothing to do and are being furloughed. You can't put a surgeon or a pediatrics nurse on duty taking care of ICU or COVID patients; they don't know what they are doing. Who is being hired are ICU providers and nurses, and respiratory therapists. Right now, if you want to do a temp gig as an ICU nurse in a NYC hospital, the temp agencies are offering you $ 5000/week.
Wow. That's something new I learned. I mean, some people are still getting sick from other stuff. Would it be physically or fiscally impractical to do something like trailers or other temporary buildings for routine and/or non-virus stuff? People still get appendicitis and broken arms and stuff, yeah?
-
If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine), we would likely end up at 20-30kk or so dead.
How the *expletive deleted*ck do you get that math?
Right now, as of 0910EST March 29th, there have been 124,686 cases in the US. Of those, 2,191 have died, and 2,612 have recovered. So if new infections dropped to zero today, we'd have 119,883 cases left to have an outcome. You think this is suddenly going to jump to a 20% (taking the median of your range) mortality rate? That argument is retarded. Not going to happen.
That said it's hard to estimate where we are in the infection curve because our testing protocols are changing so rapidly. I suspect, with no real evidence, that we are closer to the top of actual infections then the "confirmed cases" curve would imply. If we keep it around 500,000 confirmed cases across the US, our hospital network will be able to mostly handle it, and we will be looking at 2-2.5% mortality. Which is still a lot of people. If we exceed health care capacity, we could see that mortality nudge into 4-6%. Which is a ton of people and on a par with the raw numbers that Jamis and Nick are tossing about.
I don't think we will see the almost 11% mortality Italy has because that hospital collapse required an acceleration rate of cases we don't have, and I think just won't get due to sheer landmass and population. NYC, LA, and the Puget Sound area may emulate it, but the country won't as a whole.
-
How the *expletive deleted*ck do you get that math?
Right now, as of 0910EST March 29th, there have been 124,686 cases in the US. Of those, 2,191 have died, and 2,612 have recovered. So if new infections dropped to zero today, we'd have 119,883 cases left to have an outcome. You think this is suddenly going to jump to a 20% (taking the median of your range) mortality rate? That argument is retarded. Not going to happen.
That said it's hard to estimate where we are in the infection curve because our testing protocols are changing so rapidly. I suspect, with no real evidence, that we are closer to the top of actual infections then the "confirmed cases" curve would imply. If we keep it around 500,000 confirmed cases across the US, our hospital network will be able to mostly handle it, and we will be looking at 2-2.5% mortality. Which is still a lot of people. If we exceed health care capacity, we could see that mortality nudge into 4-6%. Which is a ton of people and on a par with the raw numbers that Jamis and Nick are tossing about.
I don't think we will see the almost 11% mortality Italy has because that hospital collapse required an acceleration rate of cases we don't have, and I think just won't get due to sheer landmass and population. NYC, LA, and the Puget Sound area may emulate it, but the country won't as a whole.
I see that you're emotionally invested in this argument. Which is fine, people are dying, the economy is crashing, and everyone daily lives are pretty upset.
Since you asked, I will explain "How the *expletive deleted*ck I got that math."
US deaths are following an exponential trend-line with an R2 of 0.946. Which means the model is really close.
Onset of symptoms to death is averaging about 8 days. Based on the exponential trend-line, in 8 days we can expect 11,700 dead americans. So, I guess I was off by two days in my estimate. 10 days from now, 20k dead on the current trend.
-
That math requires continued growth of infections. You postulated that "If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine)" we'd still get 20k. The current trend for deaths would not continue if the current trend of infections doesn't continue.
You can't go flat on new infections and postulate the death rate will stay exponential. That's not how math works.
-
That math requires continued growth of infections. You postulated that "If new infections dropped to 0 today (100% effective quarantine)" we'd still get 20k. The current trend for deaths would not continue if the current trend of infections doesn't continue.
You can't go flat on new infections and postulate the death rate will stay exponential. That's not how math works.
It turns out, that's how math works!
There are people who feel fine today, who were infected this morning, who will die in (on average) 8 days from today. Even with no new infections, there are people walking around today, who don't know they have covid19, are not diagnosed, and who will be dead in a week.
-
Wow. That's something new I learned. I mean, some people are still getting sick from other stuff. Would it be physically or fiscally impractical to do something like trailers or other temporary buildings for routine and/or non-virus stuff? People still get appendicitis and broken arms and stuff, yeah?
This is pretty much the thinking behind the deployment of the Navy hospital ships to NYC and LA and the deployment of Army field hospitals to various places: provide the non-COVID care in a temporary setting. Your typical hospital is still seeing emergencies, OB and urgent medical issues as space and staff are available. But most of them don't have the money or resources to set up temporary care facilities in a field-type setting.
An Army field hospital from Tennessee is setting up in downtown Seattle at the events center of the football stadium. I was watching the CO give an interview on the local TV, and he said they will be set up to do everything from trauma surgery to broken bones to diabetes. He didn't say anything about OB or ICU beds. My second wife, the chief corpsman, was one of the leading CPOs for a field hospital out of San Diego, and she said it was very much geared toward trauma and urgent care, which makes sense in the military field setting.
My niece just signed up a few months back with the Army Reserve, and was direct commission as a first lieutenant as a CRNA. She works for the University of Pittsburgh medical center, and she says as one of the most junior anesthesiology personnel, she has essentially been furloughed, and she actually hopes she will be called up and sent somewhere. The Army is very big on CRNAs.
-
What's the daily flu death rate? Pretty sure Corona is now the number one daily fatal communicable disease in the world.
Italy's total case count has slowed, but their death rate is still going up.
According to the CDC, in the past 10 years in the US alone anywhere from about 33 a day up to about 167, or about 1 every 44 minutes down to 1 every 9 minutes. 2011 was exceptionally low and 2018 looks like it is exceptionally high.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
Perhaps for everyone's safety we should keep everyone locked up in their house to stop the spread of the flu. If not, who are we willing to sacrifice to the flu just for a little freedom?
-
It turns out, that's how math works!
There are people who feel fine today, who were infected this morning, who will die in (on average) 8 days from today. Even with no new infections, there are people walking around today, who don't know they have covid19, are not diagnosed, and who will be dead in a week.
Unless there is an input that was missed, then your math going forward is all trash.
Probabilities have no ontology, ie the model is not reality.
Not only do I hope you're wrong there is always a probability you are 😉
-
As a general rule, hospitals and clinics are cancelling routine appointments, surgeries and anything that does not absolutely need to be in the hospital. This is to free up capacity for a COVID surge and to reduce the possibility of other patients and staff being infected. Accordingly, the non-COVID patient census is dropping like a rock, and providers and staff are sitting around with nothing to do and are being furloughed. You can't put a surgeon or a pediatrics nurse on duty taking care of ICU or COVID patients; they don't know what they are doing. Who is being hired are ICU providers and nurses, and respiratory therapists. Right now, if you want to do a temp gig as an ICU nurse in a NYC hospital, the temp agencies are offering you $ 5000/week.
Will pass that on to my brother, who is in fact an ICU nurse.
---edit to add---
Bro sez:
Yup. Pretty much same here. Lots of staff furloughed. Lots of information at cross purposes, too. I got an email from the big boss, saying we should stay home if sick. I read an article in the RR Star, some bigwig at Mercy Health tells the reporter that employees with cold symptoms are to stay home. So I email my boss. Hey boss, I sez, I got a sore throat that won't go away, come into work? She sez, you don't got a fever, you come into work.
-
Unless there is an input that was missed, then your math going forward is all trash.
Probabilities have no ontology, ie the model is not reality.
Not only do I hope you're wrong there is always a probability you are 😉
Sure. Models are just predictions about the future. There's a chance it will be totally wrong. We can't know everything that's going to happen, just make predictions based on what has happened in the past.
I hope I'm totally wrong too. =|
-
The local major hospital system is furloughing doctors and nurses...our healthcare system is run by idiots
??? That makes no sense. Around here, the .gov is begging retired doctors and nurses to report for duty, and they've waived the requirement for their licenses to be current. We're also allowing doctors and nurses from other states to work here without being licensed in the state.
-
??? That makes no sense. Around here, the .gov is begging retired doctors and nurses to report for duty, and they've waived the requirement for their licenses to be current. We're also allowing doctors and nurses from other states to work here without being licensed in the state.
You see here the difference between urban and rural healthcare. Even in the best of times, the willingness and enthusiasm of healthcare providers and staff to move from the big city to East Moosejaw is limited. So in some urban areas, we have an oversupply of providers and staff vs. current patient needs but I suspect the majority of them are not going to uproot to work in rural areas, either for pay or volunteer. The data over the past few decades shows that so far, they have not.
-
??? That makes no sense. Around here, the .gov is begging retired doctors and nurses to report for duty, and they've waived the requirement for their licenses to be current. We're also allowing doctors and nurses from other states to work here without being licensed in the state.
Yeah, the ones in the right fields. I can promise you they aren't calling on the ophthalmologists, dermatologists and many other specialties that aren't relevant. They'll keep a few oncologists and endocrinologists and such around to deal with the high risk patients in their specialty. But everyone else, other than the bare bones they need to deal with standard run emergencies, isn't helpful and doesn't need to be there.
And yes, they're still dealing with stuff that will cause immediate imminent death, like acute appendicitis. It's stuff like what I had that's getting pushed back. The things that will kill you eventually, but not tomorrow, that's getting postponed.
Fixed for whatever. ;/
-
And yes, they're still dealing with stuff that will cause immediate death, like acute appendicitis. It's stuff like what I had that's getting pushed back. The things that will kill you eventually, but not tomorrow, that's getting postponed.
Maybe not immediate but a lingering painful death, it could take a while. In reality if something causes immediate death there isn't much need for medical care. ;)
But I knew what you meant. =)
bob
-
An article about hospitals cancelling surgeries and the like for COVID:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/when-surgeries-are-canceled-hospitals-triage-medical-care-to-make-room-for-coronavirus-patients/
-
I talked to a podiatrist last week that normally does surgery 1-2 days per week. He said the hospital cancelled all until further notice. He is seeing a few patients in his clinic but a fraction of his usual.
My friends wife is an RN in a pediatric allergy clinic and they are down to 2 days per week. The hospital system that sucked them in a couple years ago wants everyone to be a universal soldier and accept transfer where needed. She said no. She hasn’t worked in hospital for 20 years and she said she’ll retire before she goes into acute care.
-
An article about hospitals cancelling surgeries and the like for COVID:
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/when-surgeries-are-canceled-hospitals-triage-medical-care-to-make-room-for-coronavirus-patients/
They shut down all elective surgery several weeks ago locally. When I was discussing my right shoulder rotator cuff repair with my orthopedic surgeon (left shoulder surgery was in January) he wasn't too happy with them being shut down with nothing local and at the time only one or two in a neighboring county.
My wife is still undergoing treatment 3 times a week with a wound care specialist and while they have modified their patient contact procedures they are still treating patients. Her Breast Dr is setting up everyone she can on Tele-health visits.
As of right now I'm still scheduled for PT twice a week.
-
Not to be a dick but I couldn't care less about the "poor" medical professionals.
The restaurant industry, retail and thousands of other small businesses have been flattened.
These owners and their employees don't have summer homes, fat (even still) 401k's or much if any savings.
The libertarians and their snarky comments about markets and individual responsibility can go *expletive deleted*ck themselves.
-
Not to be a dick but I couldn't care less about the "poor" medical professionals.
The restaurant industry, retail and thousands of other small businesses have been flattened.
These owners and their employees don't have summer homes, fat (even still) 401k's or much if any savings.
The libertarians and their snarky comments about markets and individual responsibility can go *expletive deleted*ck themselves.
I'm a libertarian, to a degree, so thank you for your kind thoughts.
Yes, everyone should have enough money in savings to cover a few months of bills, but that is just not possible for evert person. Still, that should be the goal. The problem as I see it in this case is not a lack of savings, but a huge, widespread, government-mandated shutdown of damn near everyone and everything. Since FedGov required this shutdown, FedGov should be on the hook for the bailout, but this isn't the time to just throw money at anyone and everyone.
-
Not to be a dick but I couldn't care less about the "poor" medical professionals.
The restaurant industry, retail and thousands of other small businesses have been flattened.
These owners and their employees don't have summer homes, fat (even still) 401k's or much if any savings.
The libertarians and their snarky comments about markets and individual responsibility can go *expletive deleted*ck themselves.
Hmmm, you must be thinking a small subset of "medical professionals". There is a lot more to medical professionals than MDs and the like. I can rattle off any number of medical professionals who don't have what you say, myself included, yet they show up to work every day knowing full well the danger that exists for them due to lack of PPE among other things.
bob
-
Unless there is an input that was missed, then your math going forward is all trash.
Probabilities have no ontology, ie the model is not reality.
Not only do I hope you're wrong there is always a probability you are 😉
I *think* what he is saying is there are a week's worth of people who are infected but not actually sick yet, and some of them will die. Some number were infected last Monday. More were infected on Tuesday, still more on Wednesday, etc, because the infection rate was still exponential then.
That's where you get the growth in casualties with magically no more new infections before it rapidly tapers off.
-
A couple of days ago my town's mayor sent out a telephonic robo call, asking everyone to self-isolate as much as possible. She said the town had three confirmed cases (mercifully, as of today it's still three) but the part that shocked me was that she said the experts estimate that for every confirmed case there are 100 undiagnosed cases. That surprised me. I had thought that the ratio was maybe 10:1. 100:1 is some serious stuff.
-
I *think* what he is saying is there are a week's worth of people who are infected but not actually sick yet, and some of them will die. Some number were infected last Monday. More were infected on Tuesday, still more on Wednesday, etc, because the infection rate was still exponential then.
That's where you get the growth in casualties with magically no more new infections before it rapidly tapers off.
This.
-
A couple of days ago my town's mayor sent out a telephonic robo call, asking everyone to self-isolate as much as possible. She said the town had three confirmed cases (mercifully, as of today it's still three) but the part that shocked me was that she said the experts estimate that for every confirmed case there are 100 undiagnosed cases. That surprised me. I had thought that the ratio was maybe 10:1. 100:1 is some serious stuff.
Another way one might look at that is that for every serious case there is 100 that isn't.
Of course there is some factor of diagnosed cases. Even if we use a conservative 5:1 how would that affect the oft touted fatality rate?
Yes I believe this is a serious disease but the official numbers are *expletive deleted*ing ludicrous and designed to cause fear and panic that can be taken advantage of.
-
I *think* what he is saying is there are a TWO week's worth of people who are infected but not actually sick yet, and some of them will die. Some number were infected last Monday. More were infected on Tuesday, still more on Wednesday, etc, because the infection rate was still exponential then.
That's where you get the growth in casualties with magically no more new infections before it rapidly tapers off.
FTFY.
-
Well...April 30th at the earliest for the Fed guidelines.
And the fed instructions are just that, guidelines.
Peak daily deaths in two weeks according to government modeling.
In other words, we ain't seen nothing yet.
-
Trump concedes anything under 100,000 is a "very good job"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/trump-deaths-coronavirus/index.html
:O
-
And I'm sure that MSNBC's headline will be something along the lines of TRUMP: "I hope I can keep the number of people I murder to under 100,000"
-
Trump concedes anything under 100,000 is a "very good job"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/politics/trump-deaths-coronavirus/index.html
:O
Sounds good to me. Better than a million.
-
And I'm sure that MSNBC's headline will be something along the lines of TRUMP: "I hope I can keep the number of people I murder to under 100,000"
Oh the left has already labeled his inner circle as a "Death cult". *expletive deleted*it's all over reddit.
-
Sounds good to me. Better than a million.
Watching how aggressive Italy has been yet they're at a 10% mortality rate among known cases....
At this point, anything under 100k would probably be a good outcome for the US. We waited too long to mount any kind of unified response. Some states are still in complete denial.
I didn't believe China before, but now I'm super suspect of their data. I don't buy the 20 million number, that's a farce. But hearing about the cremations and urn orders from Wuhan calls their numbers into serious doubt.
-
Panic! Panic! Panic!
Herds rarely make good decisions when they're spooked and panicked.
What little media I consume seems designed to induce panic.
Even stipulating this is a dangerous deadly disease what I'm seeing is not adding up.
The bug is real and it is being used as cover for a lot more than suppressing the spread.
Remember now, PANIC!
-
Jesus the longer this goes on, the more unhinged your posts become.
-
Jesus the longer this goes on, the more unhinged your posts become.
That can be said about people on both sides of the concern (THE VIRUS IS GOING TO KILL US ALL! vs. THE GOVERNMENT IS GOING TO STEAL ALL OUR RIGHTS)
I still hold we are over-reacting in some areas of the country. Lockdown is prudent in some areas, but unnecessary in others.
I think part of the reaction (by people, the government, and posters here) is we haven't really had to deal with dangerous, contagious diseases in 3-ish generations, I think. (Does the math.... that puts us back into the 60s. That seems right.)
We've had the illusion (black swans) that diseases aren't really a concern for us any more. Like a lot of modern life, it's an assumption that's been resting on faulty data. I'm among them- I pointed out other issues with the reliance on global trade and didn't see this one coming.
Some day, we're likely to get an actual plague that can't be treated as easily. HOPEFULLY (I'm not sanguine on it, though), this will serve as a wake-up call and we won't try to go back to business as usual.
-
Jesus the longer this goes on, the more unhinged your posts become.
Everytime I watch the news Im flabbergasted by the insanity.
That and the continued Trump derangement makes me really question all the info we are being fed.
I'm doing everything we're supposed to do like all of us here.
But every day that goes by the sinking suspicion that this is being used as a tool to fundamentally transform this nation becomes stronger.
Look at your own posts Jamis, you've been in panic mode from the beginning.
You must be exhausted from living in hair on fire mode for weeks
-
Oh the left has already labeled his inner circle as a "Death cult". *expletive deleted*it's all over reddit.
"Takes one to know one."
-
Everytime I watch the news Im flabbergasted by the insanity.
That and the continued Trump derangement makes me really question all the info we are being fed.
I'm doing everything we're supposed to do like all of us here.
But every day that goes by the sinking suspicion that this is being used as a tool to fundamentally transform this nation becomes stronger.
Look at your posts Jamis, you've been in panic mode from the beginning.
You must be exhausted from living in hair on fire mode for weeks
Perhaps my posts make it seem that way, but I'm not living like my hair is on fire. I didn't even wear a mask to walmart last week. I've been pragmatic about this from the start.
Other than filling my pantry and freezer in a timely fashion, and living life in slow motion, not much has changed in my life and household.
I get very little of my news from the MSM, especially now. I have been watching and keeping an eye out for a lot of front line, unedited videos.
And I've watched this since it got loose in China.
Anyone who isn't concerned about this bug running rampant without any attempt to slow it down is living with their head in the sand.
I've said from the beginning, it's not the total infections that matter. It's the hospitalization rate, which leads to a high mortality rate.
If you you can't understand the absolute unpreparedness of our health care system to handle every possible bed or ventilator being occupied...well... I really don't know what else to say.
And all our "freedoms"...that ship sailed with the Whiskey Rebellion being put down by federal troops. It's really cute how people think they're free....
-
Perhaps my posts make it seem that way, but I'm not living like my hair is on fire. I didn't even wear a mask to walmart last week. I've been pragmatic about this from the start.
Other than filling my pantry and freezer in a timely fashion, and living life in slow motion, not much has changed in my life and household.
I get very little of my news from the MSM, especially now. I have been watching and keeping an eye out for a lot of front line, unedited videos.
And I've watched this since it got loose in China.
Anyone who isn't concerned about this bug running rampant without any attempt to slow it down is living with their head in the sand.
I've said from the beginning, it's not the total infections that matter. It's the hospitalization rate, which leads to a high mortality rate.
If you you can't understand the absolute unpreparedness of our health care system to handle every possible bed or ventilator being occupied...well... I really don't know what else to say.
And all our "freedoms"...that ship sailed with the Whiskey Rebellion being put down by federal troops. It's really cute how people think they're free....
Yet saying stuff like that makes it sound like you have given up. But you tend to fall into a pessimistic view of everything so no big deal.
I don't mind a variety of views. Some of that early concern over the virus got me off my butt to go ahead and stock up on some extra stuff in February. I didn't need to buy much in March when everyone else was doing so.
-
Yet saying stuff like that makes it sound like you have given up. But you tend to fall into a pessimistic view of everything so no big deal.
I don't mind a variety of views. Some of that early concern over the virus got me off my butt to go ahead and stock up on some extra stuff in February. I didn't need to buy much in March when everyone else was doing so.
Waco. Ruby Ridge. Patriot act with secret fisa courts. Corporate bailouts. Gun control. Cash for clunkers.
*expletive deleted*it, the fact that Bernie is even a viable candidate is enough to make me question the freedoms we have, the ones we supposedly have, and look long and hard at the ones we've lost.
We are one bad election cycle away from a full Australian style gun ban.
Makes it hard to be optimistic about anything that's outside of my immediately daily control.
-
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=US%20News
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-march-30-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/
Preliminary data out of Seattle indicates that the rate of increase has slowed somewhat. The Washington state 'stay at home' order was to expire at the end of this week. It will likely be extended at least another two weeks, to cover the expected peak of cases and hospitalizations in mid-April.
-
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/seattle-washington-state-coronavirus-transmission-rate.html?action=click&module=Well&pgtype=Homepage§ion=US%20News
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-march-30-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/
Preliminary data out of Seattle indicates that the rate of increase has slowed somewhat. The Washington state 'stay at home' order was to expire at the end of this week. It will likely be extended at least another two weeks, to cover the expected peak of cases and hospitalizations in mid-April.
This, as much as the same parameters being applied to all geographic locations, helps confuse people. Not you, Millcreek, rather conflicting info from various sources. We have Seattle saying things are slowing down. At the same time, to my surprise, Dr Fauci this weekend was making official statements about 200,000 US deaths.
While I continue to lean to the "not the end of the world" side, statements like Fauci's certainly make me glad I'm something of a prepper, and at least taking some precautions.
I do wish we could get more information from the MSM and our politicians that wasn't political or TDS, and I also wish that free people would voluntarily take more personal responsibility to do smart things, so that stuff like localized spring break doesn't cascade into forced national orders from our government that people are happy to comply with for "safety".
-
And all our "freedoms"...that ship sailed with the Whiskey Rebellion being put down by federal troops. It's really cute how people think they're free....
I think that's your second Whiskey Rebellion reference in this thread. Does saying "we haven't been free since [semi-obscure historical event]" mean you're libertarian woke or something?
Fair enough, I guess. At least you're not beating the dead horse, of "them hippies really screwed things up in the 60s."
-
Fair enough, I guess. At least you're not beating the dead horse, of "them hippies really screwed things up in the 60s."
[Former Californian] Them hippies really screwed things up in the 60's. [/Former Californian]
-
Everytime I watch the news Im flabbergasted by the insanity.
That's an easy fix, just watch the evening news on what ever network/local channel you like, don't watch or read anymore. I think a lot of our problem is we have too much information/disinformation available in a moment at any time. People think they are in the know by consuming all of this, yet they add to the disinformation by regurgitating either in person or online. I long for the days when there was "breaking news" followed by the line "film at 11".
-
My predictions are not based on deep data analysis, main scream news, or ouija board inquiries.
I think as more and more of the almost instant results testing become available, we just might find that most of us were exposed or will soon be exposed, that it's possibly been around longer and is more widespread but less deadly than we thought. Especially if we reach a point when we can test asymptomatic people.
I expect health care workers and first responders will be the first wave of "healthy" or asymptomatic people tested with the "results in minutes" tests when the supply of those tests gets beyond the number needed for the acute symptomatic patients.
-
I think that's your second Whiskey Rebellion reference in this thread. Does saying "we haven't been free since [semi-obscure historical event]" mean you're libertarian woke or something?
Fair enough, I guess. At least you're not beating the dead horse, of "them hippies really screwed things up in the 60s."
"semi obscure historical event"
Yes it is. But it's also when Washington ordered federal troops to put down armed protests over whiskey taxes.
Speaking of hippies, remember when national guard troops shot a bunch of them at a college in the 60's? Peppridge farm remembers.
-
jamis,
Are there degrees of freedom or is it a strict binary? If there are degrees, is it a good thing or bad thing to move incrementally away from freedom and towards totalitarianism? If it is a bad thing to move away from freedom and towards totalitarianism then is it possible someone might legitimately have a gripe about seeing that kind of move today, even if there are other freedoms that have already been lost?
-
jamis,
Are there degrees of freedom or is it a strict binary? If there are degrees, is it a good thing or bad thing to move incrementally away from freedom and towards totalitarianism? If it is a bad thing to move away from freedom and towards totalitarianism then is it possible someone might legitimately have a gripe about seeing that kind of move today, even if there are other freedoms that have already been lost?
I agree it's a bad thing to move towards further depredations of freedoms, or totalitarian rule.
I think what we're seeing is a lot of powers already stolen by government being used for once. Much of this is stuff that's been sitting in federal and state codes already, just never applied.
And of course, the no crisis gone to waste crowd will sneak anything under the radar they can with this going on.
-
I agree it's a bad thing to move towards further depredations of freedoms, or totalitarian rule.
I think what we're seeing is a lot of powers already stolen by government being used for once. Much of this is stuff that's been sitting in federal and state codes already, just never applied.
And of course, the no crisis gone to waste crowd will sneak anything under the radar they can with this going on.
Right on. That being the case, there really isn't an issue if someone complains about further depredations of freedoms or the actual use (or abuse) of long disused authority, right?
-
"semi obscure historical event"
Yes it is. But it's also when Washington ordered federal troops to put down armed protests over whiskey taxes.
Speaking of hippies, remember when national guard troops shot a bunch of them at a college in the 60's? Peppridge farm remembers.
I have no idea what you're trying to say here.
-
Speaking of hippies, remember when national guard troops shot a bunch of them at a college in the 60's? Peppridge farm remembers.
Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, May 4, 1970. Stupidity on the part of poorly trained NG troops.
-
Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, May 4, 1970. Stupidity on the part of poorly trained NG troops.
ALSO stupidity by protesters attacking poorly trained NG troops.
-
ALSO stupidity by protesters attacking poorly trained NG troops.
Gee, wonder why the media never mentions that or what the protesters had been up to for the past two days.
-
Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, May 4, 1970. Stupidity on the part of poorly trained NG troops.
I remember it too (not well) and knew the reference, but I still don't know what point Jamis was making.
-
Quote from: Jamisjockey on Today at 10:40:48 AM
Speaking of hippies, remember when national guard troops shot a bunch of them at a college in the 60's? Peppridge farm remembers.
Kent State University, Kent, Ohio, May 4, 1970. Stupidity on the part of poorly trained NG troops.
How many hippies in "a bunch"? =D
Since not all the victims were technically hippies are they lumped in as part of the bunch?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kent_State_shootings)
Read the timeline of events. While the NG shooting indiscriminately was unarguably criminal, there were plenty of people involved that didn't get shot that should have been.
-
"semi obscure historical event"
Yes it is. But it's also when Washington ordered federal troops to put down armed protests over whiskey taxes.
The constitution specifically gave the Federal Government the authority to tax, including the whiskey tax. The people rebelling against the whiskey tax had zero legal or constitutional right to do so. Suppressing the rebellion was not tyranny.
-
Regardless, once again this assumes people supposedly pulling strings could have their head out of their ass long enough to do so, and for nothing to leak about it. It also doesn't explain other countries that don't have the same sort of media over saturation, hell state run media, taking even stronger actions than we have. It's not like we're an island in a sea of others not giving a flip.
Keep on mind even if it comes out with minimal cases/deaths that doesn't mean measures weren't needed. It just means they worked.
Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
-
The constitution specifically gave the Federal Government the authority to tax, including the whiskey tax. The people rebelling against the whiskey tax had zero legal or constitutional right to do so. Suppressing the rebellion was not tyranny.
I'm still perplexed by jamis's answer. He apparently thinks that calling an event "semi-obscure" is another way of saying it doesn't matter. Or at least, that's my best guess.
I guess we're accustomed to thinking that any rights you lose, you don't get back, or that if we let the government get away with something once, we can never stop them from doing it again. That sounds compelling, (the inverse of the Whig view of history), but how does it compare with the facts? I think, if you look at what has actually happened, it's just not true.
Blacks and women were kept from voting for a long time, but they do now.
Gun carry restrictions from 150 years ago have been repealed. Maybe not in all states, but in the majority of them.
From the Alien and Sedition Acts to the similar laws enacted in the WWI era, there have been a lot of encroachments on freedom of speech that simply wouldn't be allowed by the courts today.
Other examples may occur to you.
-
I'm still perplexed by jamis's answer. He apparently thinks that calling an event "semi-obscure" is another way of saying it doesn't matter. Or at least, that's my best guess.
I thought "semi-obscure" was semi-sarcastic; also because we don't talk about the Kent State Massacre much anymore and most Americans are too young to remember it.
-
I thought "semi-obscure" was semi-sarcastic; also because we don't talk about the Kent State Massacre much anymore and most Americans are too young to remember it.
When I said semi-obscure, I was referring to the Whiskey Rebellion. Semi-obscurity has no bearing on importance or relevance. It's semi-obscure because most living Americans have never heard of it. Those who have, including me, know almost nothing about it. Semi-, but not fully, obscure, because - well, I just don't think it's truly obscure. You might say the 10mm cartridge is semi-obscure (most people have never heard of it, because they haven't seen that episode of Twin Peaks or Miami Vice, or whatever), but it's not truly obscure, like .41 Special.
All that being said, one can stipulate that the Whiskey Rebellion may have been an instance of tyranny, but that doesn't mean we've never been free, never will be free, or can't be free. It doesn't justify a feeling of superiority over those who don't know about it.
-
Gee, wonder why the media never mentions that or what the protesters had been up to for the past two days.
This. It's like people think the National Guard just randomly decided to show up and shoot some people, and not that these "protesters" had been rioting the days before destroying things.
-
When I said semi-obscure, I was referring to the Whiskey Rebellion. Semi-obscurity has no bearing on importance or relevance. It's semi-obscure because most living Americans have never heard of it. Those who have, including me, know almost nothing about it. Semi-, but not fully, obscure, because - well, I just don't think it's truly obscure. You might say the 10mm cartridge is semi-obscure (most people have never heard of it, because they haven't seen that episode of Twin Peaks or Miami Vice, or whatever), but it's not truly obscure, like .41 Special.
All that being said, one can stipulate that the Whiskey Rebellion may have been an instance of tyranny, but that doesn't mean we've never been free, never will be free, or can't be free. It doesn't justify a feeling of superiority over those who don't know about it.
The Whiskey Rebellion may not be taught in schools now, but when I was in school, it was a commonly taught event. I think it was used as an example of the new Govt asserting federal power. Which is pretty much what the colonies wanted when they elected to get rid of the Articles of Confederation. It should not be a semi-obscure event, but I think anything that doesn't have a movie made about it is probably semi-obscure at best these days.
-
This. It's like people think the National Guard just randomly decided to show up and shoot some people, and not that these "protesters" had been rioting the days before destroying things.
1. Rioting always seems to be called "protesting" even when everyone knows it is way beyond that.
2. I think the Kent State incident was probably one of those times where it would have been better to take away the troop rifles, give them all clubs, then tell them to club anyone that doesn't disperse. Probably would have created less of an uproar even if more people would have been hurt.
On #2, I always thought it was odd that some people seem to think someone getting killed with a gun is somehow far worse than someone getting beaten and paralyzed or turned into a vegetable.
-
I can't paste in this but Neil Young Ohio
-
I can't paste in this but Neil Young Ohio
In response to a different song, but still...
. Well I heard Mister Young sing about her
Well I heard ol' Neil put her down
Well I hope Neil Young will remember
A southern man don't need him around anyhow
Sidenote: I have no bone in this fight. Just being a smartass.
-
Don't even need to look that up I have listened to that song much more.
-
Chart of new cases per day in the US:
(https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States/0/25322d1952a28cc10c2a4cfe3d3cdf5a25c067d7.png)
I don't know how to analyze this. On the one hand it looks like the increase is slowing, but that is likely due in no small part to many people staying home and everything being closed. To balance against that, testing is going way up in the same timeframe.
-
Chart of new cases per day in the US:
(https://en.wikipedia.org/api/rest_v1/page/graph/png/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States/0/25322d1952a28cc10c2a4cfe3d3cdf5a25c067d7.png)
I don't know how to analyze this. On the one hand it looks like the increase is slowing, but that is likely due in no small part to many people staying home and everything being closed. To balance against that, testing is going way up in the same timeframe.
They keep saying a peak around April 14, be interesting where the graph is then of new cases per day.
-
Leveling off at 20K is a good start, but we need to get that coming back down.
-
I'd like them to continue testing everyone even after this burns out.
Knowing just how widespread and where the infections are has to be helpful information for future models.
-
My unscientific, intuitive prediction is ... 50k or fewer will sucomb to this virus in the USA.
Most all of them will be elderly and/or having preexisting complications.
-
On a tangential note, my ADS-B receiver is showing much less air traffic for the last couple of weeks. Where normally there are between 80 and 120 aircraft in range of my receiver at any given time, I've been showing 22 to 25 for the last week.
Where I sit in NC I see a lot of traffic that moves up and down the east coast, plus everything going through Charlotte Intl, and much of what moves east out of Atlanta.
-
I'd like them to continue testing everyone even after this burns out.
Knowing just how widespread and where the infections are has to be helpful information for future models.
It's how the Koreans and Japanese have kept a semblance of normalcy.
Aggressive testing, aggressive contact tracing, and aggressive quarantining of those actually sick.
-
On a tangential note, my ADS-B receiver is showing much less air traffic for the last couple of weeks. Where normally there are between 80 and 120 aircraft in range of my receiver at any given time, I've been showing 22 to 25 for the last week.
Where I sit in NC I see a lot of traffic that moves up and down the east coast, plus everything going through Charlotte Intl, and much of what moves east out of Atlanta.
A lot of planes are parked now, although not everywhere. ORD is still busy for some reason, so the controllers aren't being allowed to keep the social distancing schedule that got worked out.
A lot of private pilots were taking advantage of the cheap gas. The day after the emergency was declared, we had summer traffic numbers. It was insane how busy we were that weekend.
We're now on crews of 5 days on, 10 days off. I will only see the same maybe 7 people on any given shift and only work with 5 others. If someone gets sick, they can quarantine a crew, clean the facility, and bring in a relief crew once cleaning is done. I guess they figured that all out after *expletive deleted*ing up ZID (Indy Center).
-
Last week I was back at the main contractors office waiting for authorization to work at home. The office looks over Dulles Airport.
Last August when I was in those offices it was amazing how busy the place was.
Now? It's as if everyone is asleep....
The office where I normally work is under one of the main approach/takeoff paths. It used to be when I'd go out for a smoke I'd see as many as 10 planes coming in to land.
This morning when I was out? It was 3 or 4 in the same amount of time.
-
The local version of people taking advantage of the time off and cheap gas was hitting the lake and rafting.
Apparently someone was not amused by the pictures of redneck party island with boats rafted together as now all the public boat ramps, docks, and piers are closed in addition to public beaches.
The lakes themselves aren't closed, but you'll be needing private access if you want to hit them.
Sent from my Pixel XL using Tapatalk
-
On a tangential note, my ADS-B receiver is showing much less air traffic for the last couple of weeks. Where normally there are between 80 and 120 aircraft in range of my receiver at any given time, I've been showing 22 to 25 for the last week.
Where I sit in NC I see a lot of traffic that moves up and down the east coast, plus everything going through Charlotte Intl, and much of what moves east out of Atlanta.
My airline has reduced the flying by 70% through April. I bet May has a similar reduction. Even with the ruced flights, load factor is less than 25%.
-
We have such good data to panic/be reassured by though, don't we?
https://thelawdogfiles.blogspot.com/2020/03/italy.htm
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105061/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/30/covid-19-deaths-outside-hospitals-to-be-included-in-uk-tally-for-first-time
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1244933222401794051?s=21
https://youtu.be/by7Z8mhCNXk
https://youtu.be/Rwb5QzJY2-s
https://www.wsj.com/articles/italys-coronavirus-death-toll-is-far-higher-than-reported-11585767179
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1245466020053164034
https://youtu.be/WslBRY9B-n4
https://youtu.be/RkJELpndAOs
-
I think this one is quite possibly the most important article about Corona virus to date
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
-
I think this one is quite possibly the most important article about Corona virus to date
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Important on many points. Including how so many people here fell (and are still falling) for the propaganda coming from a communist regime known for it's propaganda. Early on there was some leeway. By now though, anyone with 1/10th of a brain should know their reported numbers are low, but the MSM and others are still using their "official numbers" to show how much the US sucks.
-
Important on many points. Including how so many people here fell (and are still falling) for the propaganda coming from a communist regime known for it's propaganda. Early on there was some leeway. By now though, anyone with 1/10th of a brain should know their reported numbers are low, but the MSM and others are still using their "official numbers" to show how much the US sucks.
I even thought maybe the Chinese were mostly telling the truth. My point early on was why would they be so aggressive if they weren't scared as *expletive deleted*ck of this bug. The Chinese are very pragmatic. If it were "just the flu", they'd have happily sacrificed a few workers to keep their economy going.
Instead, they locked down over 700 million people.
Watching this *expletive deleted*it *expletive deleted*ck up Italy, and now start to run wild through the US...it makes it more obvious that the Chinese lied about their numbers.
20 million dead? I really doubt it. But a factor of 10 more higher than they claimed? Believable.
As of yesterday, COVID19 is the 3rd leading cause of death world wide, only behind Cancer and Heart Disease. Neither of those are communicable.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
215,000 confirmed. 5,000 deaths. I'd really like to see the hospitalization stats.
-
I think this one is quite possibly the most important article about Corona virus to date
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/china-concealed-extent-of-virus-outbreak-u-s-intelligence-says
Fuh. You can't believe US intelligence! They're the bad guys! The Chinese are 100% honest, and that honesty just shows how badly the US sucks at this and how criminally culpable Cheeto is for all of the deaths in the US! IMPEACH! IMPEACH!
-
Here's something to think about, one of my good friends is an ER nurse and he had some minor similar Covid-19 symptoms, so work gave him a Covid-19 test 10 days ago, he still hasn't gotten his results and is quarantined at home.
A boom of positive cases is coming.
-
Here's something to think about, one of my good friends is an ER nurse and he had some minor similar Covid-19 symptoms, so work gave him a Covid-19 test 10 days ago, he still hasn't gotten his results and is quarantined at home.
A boom of positive cases is coming.
We have a friend who is in a similar situation and was on day 12 of waiting 3 days ago.
-
A bedside test has been rolled out, takes about 45 minutes to run. It only detects the acute infection though. If you are on either side of acute it won't detect the virus so the test that requires waiting is still needed to completely rule out.
bob
-
A bedside test has been rolled out, takes about 45 minutes to run. It only detects the acute infection though. If you are on either side of acute it won't detect the virus so the test that requires waiting is still needed to completely rule out.
bob
The test that just got approved a few days ago takes five minutes for a positive, almost 15 minutes for negative.
There's a 2-minute test, but despite Reuters' botched reporting, it ain't approved yet.
-
The Washington state governor just extended the 'stay at home' order for another month.
-
We have a friend who is in a similar situation and was on day 12 of waiting 3 days ago.
He texted me he got his results, negative, but still has to finish the 14 day quarantine.
-
I have a hunch by May 1, if this hasn't peaked, America is gonna go beserk. Who knows what could happen if the electric grid starts to flutter, natural gas quits flowing...any other sorts of breakdowns..
I still think, as ugly as this disease is, how it spreads, how it affects some people and kills some of them, it's been overblown for some reason. If reasonable advice had been given to folks about being a bit careful and ramp up the hygiene, assured the folks the government was working hard with labs for meds and a vaccine, we may have had national herd immunity by May and things would calm down slowly over the rest of the year and the economy wouldn't have melted down. Everyone I speak with has very little respect for or trust in the MSM or the government...the two things that we should be able to at least semi trust.
-
260000 confirmed and the week isn’t out.
-
I even thought maybe the Chinese were mostly telling the truth. My point early on was why would they be so aggressive if they weren't scared as *expletive deleted*ck of this bug. The Chinese are very pragmatic. If it were "just the flu", they'd have happily sacrificed a few workers to keep their economy going.
Instead, they locked down over 700 million people.
Watching this *expletive deleted*it *expletive deleted*ck up Italy, and now start to run wild through the US...it makes it more obvious that the Chinese lied about their numbers.
20 million dead? I really doubt it. But a factor of 10 more higher than they claimed? Believable.
[ahem] I have a theory about why they were so aggressive so fast. Like they knew something about this bug that the numbers didn't support at the time.......
Jus' Sayin'
-
[ahem] I have a theory about why they were so aggressive so fast. Like they knew something about this bug that the numbers didn't support at the time.......
Jus' Sayin'
I read a story this morning that said "scientists" (they don't say which ones) are now leaning more and more toward the plausibility of a lab protocol breach. Now that "scientists" are saying it instead of people like Tom Cotton, I see that the MSM is aggressively backpedaling their previous "tinfoil fruitcake" stance on the possibility.
-
I read a story this morning that said "scientists" (they don't say which ones) are now leaning more and more toward the plausibility of a lab protocol breach. Now that "scientists" are saying it instead of people like Tom Cotton, I see that the MSM is aggressively backpedaling their previous "tinfoil fruitcake" stance on the possibility.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUo1w5aSkro
-
260000 confirmed and the week isn’t out.
The CDC has 239000 total and 233000 of those are under investigation; i.e. not confirmed yet. What are you referring to?
ETA:
I think I was looking at the info incorrectly. Apparently, "under investigation" means they're still determining how the person got the virus. My bad.
-
The CDC has 239000 total and 233000 of those are under investigation; i.e. not confirmed yet. What are you referring to?
ETA:
I think I was looking at the info incorrectly. Apparently, "under investigation" means they're still determining how the person got the virus. My bad.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
-
[ahem] I have a theory about why they were so aggressive so fast. Like they knew something about this bug that the numbers didn't support at the time.......
Jus' Sayin'
Ran across this on Twitter ...
If you were the 2nd most powerful nation on earth, a great way to change the world order would be to unleash a terrible virus on a large inland city that has enough international connections to ensure world-wide spread. At the same time, you quickly shut down the virus locally.
It's not outside the realm of possibility.
-
I revise my prediction. I think we're going to look back on this as a mass hysteria. Not because the virus isn't serious, but because we impoverished so many people.
-
As of yesterday, COVID19 is the 3rd leading cause of death world wide, only behind Cancer and Heart Disease. Neither of those are communicable.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
215,000 confirmed. 5,000 deaths. I'd really like to see the hospitalization stats.
Yet there's a (thoroughly unlikeable even before this) guy on a Jeep forum I frequent who is vehemently proclaiming that we're all sheep and that this whole thing is overblown hype -- it's just a dry run for the government to declare martial law, and we're all too dumb to see it. Only he is smart enough to understand what's really happening.
Right.
-
Yet there's a (thoroughly unlikeable even before this) guy on a Jeep forum I frequent who is vehemently proclaiming that we're all sheep and that this whole thing is overblown hype -- it's just a dry run for the government to declare martial law, and we're all too dumb to see it. Only he is smart enough to understand what's really happening.
Right.
Same thing on a motorcycle forum I'm on. More posts started by him than everybody else combined and it's killing what used to be a good forum.
-
One guy like that can be toxic to an otherwise good forum.
That’s what I like about this forum. We’re all toxic here.
-
One guy like that can be toxic to an otherwise good forum.
That’s what I like about this forum. We’re all toxic here.
LOL 😄
-
I have a relative who is a pathologist in the northwest. His "guestimate" was 100,000-120,000 dead he though we may be able to get the schools open again in the fall. Let us hope it is no worse than that.
-
The good doctors prediction ...
https://twitter.com/newsmax/status/1246131288664408064
-
I think my earlier guesses at our nation debt where so low I can't even make a prediction now.
It's going to get interesting once this is over.
-
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/japan-to-pay-its-firms-2-billion-from-covid-19-stimulus-package-to-shift-production-out-of-china
-
That's a plan I would love to see implemented in the US.
-
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/04/kurzarbeit-coronavirus-pandemic-america-unemployment-apocalypse-europe-not/
It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in Europe vs. the USA.
-
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/04/kurzarbeit-coronavirus-pandemic-america-unemployment-apocalypse-europe-not/
It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in Europe vs. the USA.
We choose to spend $2T mostly to bail out businesses. We could have paid every person in the US $24,000 with that money. Do I agree with it? No. But we'd have a lot of people with money ready to spend in 2 months. Instead, we'll have a lot of businesses pulling stunts like buying up their own stock, cutting salaries, and paying CEO bonuses. And double digit unemployment will still be there at the end of this year.
-
We choose to spend $2T mostly to bail out businesses. We could have paid every person in the US $24,000 with that money. Do I agree with it? No. But we'd have a lot of people with money ready to spend in 2 months. Instead, we'll have a lot of businesses pulling stunts like buying up their own stock, cutting salaries, and paying CEO bonuses. And double digit unemployment will still be there at the end of this year.
Might want to check your decimal places there.
-
Might want to check your decimal places there.
Oops you're right. $6116. So it would need to be capped and only go to adults to make a real impact.
$6116 is still more than most are getting from the stimulus though. For a lot of people that's 3 months of rent plus utilities.
-
My understanding is that the money going to businesses comes with caveats like no bonuses for execs.
I just don't know where I stand on all this spending, but if companies and small businesses go out of business due to mandatory gov shutdowns, there are no jobs to go back to for the unemployed. I don't think you can help just one without helping the other.
I'm much more concerned with the money that goes to the Kennedy Center and other commie pinko causes. We'll see if my math is right, but $25 million/$25,000 = 1000 small businesses that could get $25,000, which could be the difference between hanging on and going under before this is over.
-
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/04/kurzarbeit-coronavirus-pandemic-america-unemployment-apocalypse-europe-not/
It will be interesting to see how this shakes out in Europe vs. the USA.
America Is Having an Unemployment Apocalypse. Europe Chose Not to.
What was the unemployment % in Europe before all this?
-
America Is Having an Unemployment Apocalypse. Europe Chose Not to.
What was the unemployment % in Europe before all this?
Don't know about the EU as a whole, but since the article mostly talked about Germany:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/375209/unemployment-rate-in-germany/
Low 3%'s last year and under 5% since 2014.
-
Does the EU and/or Germany have strict labor laws where firing or furlough employees is almost impossible?
-
Benny
✔
@bennyjohnson
During this crisis people have been arrested for:
- Going to church
- Playing with their own kids
- Being in their own yard
- Paddle boarding
- Not wearing a mask
- Jogging on a beach
Perhaps the biggest victory for China during China Virus has been the world turning into China
-
Does the EU and/or Germany have strict labor laws where firing or furlough employees is almost impossible?
Great Britain does, friend over there told me if your unemployed you get assigned a job.
-
Does the EU and/or Germany have strict labor laws where firing or furlough employees is almost impossible?
It was mentioned in the linked article that Germany has made it pretty difficult to fire and/or furlough workers.
-
I have heard France has OT rules that strictly limit the amount of overtime an hourly worker can put in. It forces industrial plants to hire more workers to cover vacation, etc.
-
It was mentioned in the linked article that Germany has made it pretty difficult to fire and/or furlough workers.
Pretty much most EU countries have gone that way. Can't work too many hours, mandatory sick time and vacation, etc.
On paper, they will look better than us coming out of lockdown.
-
Pretty much most EU countries have gone that way. Can't work too many hours, mandatory sick time and vacation, etc.
On paper, they will look better than us coming out of lockdown.
We have yet to get locked down here in Sweden. Only restriction is that they banned all gathering of more than 500 people to begin with, and then lowered it to 50. But bars and pubs and restaurants are still open for business as usual, although they have been seeing fewer patrons since the start of the outbreak. But no businesses have been closed due to government orders, no travel restrictions etc. We´ll see how it goes. Right now we aren´t doing too well compared to Denmark and Norway, who both have roughly half of our population each but only 1/4 of the deaths that we do. As of the latest figures we have just over 900 confirmed dead and 10500 confirmed infected.
-
We have yet to get locked down here in Sweden. Only restriction is that they banned all gathering of more than 500 people to begin with, and then lowered it to 50. But bars and pubs and restaurants are still open for business as usual, although they have been seeing fewer patrons since the start of the outbreak. But no businesses have been closed due to government orders, no travel restrictions etc. We´ll see how it goes. Right now we aren´t doing too well compared to Denmark and Norway, who both have roughly half of our population each but only 1/4 of the deaths that we do. As of the latest figures we have just over 900 confirmed dead and 10500 confirmed infected.
Interesting on many fronts. That's a ~10% mortality rate for reported infections. What is the percentage of people over say, 60 years of age in your total population?
-
I just heard that Finland closed down their borders today.
That means no one can cross the Finnish line!!!
Bada-bing….. I'll be here all week, tip your waitress on the way out!!
bob
-
Interesting on many fronts. That's a ~10% mortality rate for reported infections. What is the percentage of people over say, 60 years of age in your total population?
Yep, but only for reported infection - keep in mind our government has been playing catching up with trying to get people tested. As for % of population over the age of 60 I have not found any easy statistics to look at right now. Interestingly, in the beginning while we still had merely 50 or so dead, the majority of these were in Stockholm, which is not unusual. The unusual thing was that half of those dead in Stockholm were of Somali heritage. Interestingly, by today´s statistics,about half of the confirmed cases are in Stockholm, which is the capital and biggest city. The casualty rates mirror this quite well. However, my region/county (Think British county, not American county) which also covers Gothenburg, aka second biggest city, only has somewhat less than 1100 cases in total and 50 or so dead. Likewise, Stockholm has almost 200 cases per 100k citizens, my county/region has just over 60/100k. Whether this disrepancy is because of testing I do not know.
Edit to add: Not the exact age range, but 20% of our population is above the age of 65.
-
Edit to add: Not the exact age range, but 20% of our population is above the age of 65.
US reports ~15% above 65, so you do have more older people than we do, though there are of course, other factors as well. The Somalis are interesting given China's recent quarantine of black people.
-
About a week old, but Bill Whittle has some predictions in this vidja:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1iPOlKCGtY0
-
The CDC actually breaks down the numbers.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
-
I just heard that Finland closed down their borders today.
That means no one can cross the Finnish line!!!
Russians could've told you that...
-
32T in debt before this year is done.
-
I was wondering when this would go rodeo
https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/michigan-police-probe-whether-security-guard-killed-at-family-dollar-store-was-shot-for-refusing-entry-to-customer-without-mask/
-
I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.
I'm still sticking with this, and were going to have at least 3 waves of it. Mostly because most people can't economically sit this out for much longer, including myself. I may be in the 2 million dead, already have a weak heart from congenital heart disease.
-
Why do you think the 2nd and 3rd waves will be 10 times worse than the current one?
-
Why do you think the 2nd and 3rd waves will be 10 times worse than the current one?
... because more people wouldn't take it as serious because they don't personally know anyone with symptoms or died from it. Crazy number of people who still call it a hoax. This wave isn't over with yet either, at least not where I live, peak keeps getting pushed down the road.
-
I'm still sticking with this, and were going to have at least 3 waves of it. Mostly because most people can't economically sit this out for much longer, including myself. I may be in the 2 million dead, already have a weak heart from congenital heart disease.
Why would you think that? SARS and MERS are in the same family of viruses, and they made only one pass. The computer models predicting their effects on this country were also wildly out of whack, just like they have been with COVID-19.
-
Why would you think that? SARS and MERS are in the same family of viruses, and they made only one pass. The computer models predicting their effects on this country were also wildly out of whack, just like they have been with COVID-19.
SARS didn't spread this fast and it was controlled pretty fast globally. MERS was pretty much contained to the middle east and controlled there, IIRC.
This one has been a fustercluck from the start, no where near the control of SARS spread.
-
Crazy number of people who still call it a hoax.
Do you have any cites on that? The only poll I've seen is from mid-March. It was 13%.
-
Do you have any cites on that? The only poll I've seen is from mid-March. It was 13%.
Personal observation on Facebook postings. 13% would even result in a lot of deaths if you look at the US population and 2-3% of them died.
-
Personal observation on Facebook postings. 13% would even result in a lot of deaths if you look at the US population and 2-3% of them died.
Are the hoaxers sneaking into Covid wards and licking the patients?
-
Personal observation on Facebook postings. 13% would even result in a lot of deaths if you look at the US population and 2-3% of them died.
But we are not anywhere near 2-3%. We still are not quite sure just how many people were actually exposed. I think we need to be careful making assumptions about that. It leads politicians to make hasty decisions and abuse emergency powers.
-
Are the hoaxers sneaking into Covid wards and licking the patients?
More like all the infected in the packing plants shopping at Mao-Mart or xyz grocery store, touching things, then hoaxers shop their too, touch the same surfaces and their own mucus membranes, then catch the Covid, then a % of them die.
-
But we are not anywhere near 2-3%. We still are not quite sure just how many people were actually exposed. I think we need to be careful making assumptions about that. It leads politicians to make hasty decisions and abuse emergency powers.
We're between 2 and 3% fatality of known infected as of today in my state.
-
We're between 2 and 3% fatality of known infected as of today in my state.
Easy way to keep the confirmed cases down and CFR up is to not test very many. IA has only tested 60K so far. Same problem here in WI.
-
We're between 2 and 3% fatality of known infected as of today in my state.
Known infected....there's the rub. Recently a gentleman dropped his motorcycle on himself and broke a rib or four and had to be admitted. He tested positive for COVID 19, absolutely asymptomatic. He would have never been tested if not for the motorcycle accident. Just how many people like him or out there we will never know but I believe it is not an insignificant number. BTW, he was older than me so he is no spring chicken.
bob
-
More like all the infected in the packing plants shopping at Mao-Mart or xyz grocery store, touching things, then hoaxers shop their too, touch the same surfaces and their own mucus membranes, then catch the Covid, then a % of them die.
I guess that would be realistic, if non-hoaxers were really that much more cautious than hoaxers. I'm not so sure.
-
I think it's a hoax (the disease is real, but we are being lied to about it on all fronts) *and* I am being very cautious in case it's not. I'm also getting pissed about all the lies.
-
I guess that would be realistic, if non-hoaxers were really that much more cautious than hoaxers. I'm not so sure.
Well I use paper towels on bathroom doors and have hand sanitizer in my rides, never did that before mid march, ever, even in really sketchy places.
-
Easy way to keep the confirmed cases down and CFR up is to not test very many. IA has only tested 60K so far. Same problem here in WI.
Our problem is running the tests, only have so much daily capacity at the hygenic lab
-
We're between 2 and 3% fatality of known infected as of today in my state.
According to bullshit numbers as has been pointed out repeatedly.
-
Our problem is running the tests, only have so much daily capacity at the hygenic lab
Yes, that's the problem everywhere. The US has run under 8 million tests (almost twice as many as Russia - the next closest, country for which I've seen test counts) - and many people who get tested are tested multiple times. Regardless, at best under 3% of the US population have undergone testing.
Which, as you know, proves MechAg94's point. If you don't know the denominator, you don't know the rate.
-
Briggs, a statistician and blogger I read regularly, turned up on a local radio show I turn on during my morning commute.
The whole segment is good but Briggs starts at the six minute mark.
Myself, I've been balancing Briggs with Taleb to help me navigate the current landscape regarding the numbers.
As time goes by Briggs has been pretty much in alignment with reality,it's not as bad as the hype. Taleb deals with robustness to Black Swan events and was in favor of the extreme overreaction. Taleb also is part of a hedge fund that made billions recently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=124&v=OpWHhZszhbs&feature=emb_logo
https://wmbriggs.com/
-
Our problem is running the tests, only have so much daily capacity at the hygenic lab
If you know that is a problem, then you know that the total "known cases" are a flawed number. Why do you keep using statistics using that number?
IMO, overestimating the problem is just as bad as underestimating the problem. If you want to make sure there is a second or third wave, keep overestimating the death rates. You will just make people distrustful to the point they won't believe anything about this disease.
-
Personal observation on Facebook postings. 13% would even result in a lot of deaths if you look at the US population and 2-3% of them died.
For comparison:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2031325/One-seven-believe-American-Government-staged-9-11-attacks-conspiracy.html
A survey, which interviewed 1,000 people in the UK and the same number in the U.S., found that 14 per cent of Britons 15 per cent of Americans think the [Bush] administration was involved in the tragedy.
According to these links, 29% of us believe "they" are withholding a cure for Covid-19, and the same percentage believe in Bigfoot. Wonder if it's the same people?
https://www.salina.com/zz/news/20200424/nearly-one-third-of-americans-believe-coronavirus-vaccine-exists-and-is-being-withheld-survey-finds
https://www.salina.com/zz/news/20200424/nearly-one-third-of-americans-believe-coronavirus-vaccine-exists-and-is-being-withheld-survey-finds
Nearly one-third of Americans believe a vaccine already exists to prevent coronavirus infection but is being withheld from the public, while nearly half believe the COVID-19 virus was created in a lab.
-
If you know that is a problem, then you know that the total "known cases" are a flawed number. Why do you keep using statistics using that number?
IMO, overestimating the problem is just as bad as underestimating the problem. If you want to make sure there is a second or third wave, keep overestimating the death rates. You will just make people distrustful to the point they won't believe anything about this disease.
Still a representative sample of those infected, most stats work that way, it's not possible to sample an entire population.
To me the packing plants and other places that have low paid employees working side by side as essential employees is similar to the liberty boats in the 1918-1920 Spanish Flu Pandemic and it came in multiple waves.
-
Yes, that's the problem everywhere. The US has run under 8 million tests (almost twice as many as Russia - the next closest, country for which I've seen test counts) - and many people who get tested are tested multiple times. Regardless, at best under 3% of the US population have undergone testing.
Which, as you know, proves MechAg94's point. If you don't know the denominator, you don't know the rate.
Do you ever know the true denominator on such a large population?
-
Do you ever know the true denominator on such a large population?
Not without random-sample antibody testing, no. Which we are not yet doing in significant enough numbers. They typically retrospectively estimate it after the fact, but not in the moment.
Still a representative sample of those infected
No, it is is not.
They are not testing a random sample of people. If they were that would be different. They are testing people with sufficiently serious symptoms to warrant it, and people with exposure to people with serious symptoms. Even then those tests are being rationed.
-
Not without random-sample antibody testing, no. Which we are not yet doing in significant enough numbers. They typically retrospectively estimate it after the fact, but not in the moment.
No, it is is not.
So you're modeling without antibody tests?
They are not testing a random sample of people. If they were that would be different. They are testing people with sufficiently serious symptoms to warrant it, and people with exposure to people with serious symptoms. Even then those tests are being rationed.
They are in Iowa at the packing plants, they are testing everyone in the plant, symptoms or not.
-
So you're modeling without antibody tests?
Sorry, which of my models are you referring to?
I've seen some results of early antibody testing. Sweden is doing quite a few and I think we had results from an early test in New York posted here. Those (severely underpowered as of now) tests implied a massively higher infection rate than other tests show. According to those antibody tests I think Stockholm was nearing 30% historical infection last week and they were thinking that they'd have herd immunity for that city relatively soon. Still, I think it is too early to use such early results for anything important.
They are in Iowa at the packing plants, they are testing everyone in the plant, symptoms or not.
Cool. So what are the results of that random sample testing compared to the death rates within that cohort?
-
According to these links, 29% of us believe "they" are withholding a cure for Covid-19, and the same percentage believe in Bigfoot. Wonder if it's the same people?
So you're saying Bigfoot has the cure. Interesting.
-
Sorry, which of my models are you referring to?
I've seen some results of early antibody testing. Sweden is doing quite a few and I think we had results from an early test in New York posted here. Those (severely underpowered as of now) tests implied a massively higher infection rate than other tests show. According to those antibody tests I think Stockholm was nearing 30% historical infection last week and they were thinking that they'd have herd immunity for that city relatively soon. Still, I think it is too early to use such early results for anything important.
I was making a joke that you were modeling.
Cool. So what are the results of that random sample testing compared to the death rates within that cohort?
First round of wide scale testing started on April 20 IIRC correctly, 250 National Guard Solders were sent to packing plants in Iowa that had at least a 10% absentee of employees from illness. Most of these plants were shut down and now are opening back up with limited production.
Numbers were released recently (yesterday) from the testing results. News has said that all employees in these plants have been tested. Iowa hasn't peaked yet either. Iowa isn't releasing death numbers from these plants but they will for the counties the plants are located in with some age/sex demographics.
Perry, IA pork kill 58% of employees tested were positive (730 workers positive)
Waterloo, IA pork kill 17% of employees tested (444 workers positive)
Columbus Junction, IA pork kill 26% of employees tested (221 workers positive)
Tama, IA Beef kill 39% of employees tested (258 workers positive)
Perry isn't far from Des Moines, so those workers are probably shopping in Iowa's largest metro area.
Waterloo, IA is in a group of towns of a couple hundred thousand people.
Other two towns are somewhat rural, but people still travel to bigger cities for wal-mart and such.
Also a wind blade turbine plant in Newton, IA is our latest outbreak in Iowa, those job pay a lot more than packing plants. 17% of employees tested (131 workers positive)
Road construction and roofing jobs will be starting up soon, so some of the workers at the packing plants will be going to those jobs, spreading disease to other groups of people.
-
Road construction and roofing jobs will be starting up soon, so some of the workers at the packing plants will be going to those jobs, spreading disease to other groups of people.
Good. Let's get some healthy, strong people working outdoors in the sun to be exposed to this virus. Seems a very low cost (in terms of lives lost) way to move towards herd immunity.
-
Road construction never stopped around here.
My buddy is on a high-rise construction project in downtown Chicago. He is working more hours as the project is getting done faster.
-
I was making a joke that you were modeling.
First round of wide scale testing started on April 20 IIRC correctly, 250 National Guard Solders were sent to packing plants in Iowa that had at least a 10% absentee of employees from illness. Most of these plants were shut down and now are opening back up with limited production.
Numbers were released recently (yesterday) from the testing results. News has said that all employees in these plants have been tested. Iowa hasn't peaked yet either. Iowa isn't releasing death numbers from these plants but they will for the counties the plants are located in with some age/sex demographics.
Perry, IA pork kill 58% of employees tested were positive (730 workers positive)
Waterloo, IA pork kill 17% of employees tested (444 workers positive)
Columbus Junction, IA pork kill 26% of employees tested (221 workers positive)
Tama, IA Beef kill 39% of employees tested (258 workers positive)
Perry isn't far from Des Moines, so those workers are probably shopping in Iowa's largest metro area.
Waterloo, IA is in a group of towns of a couple hundred thousand people.
Other two towns are somewhat rural, but people still travel to bigger cities for wal-mart and such.
Also a wind blade turbine plant in Newton, IA is our latest outbreak in Iowa, those job pay a lot more than packing plants. 17% of employees tested (131 workers positive)
Road construction and roofing jobs will be starting up soon, so some of the workers at the packing plants will be going to those jobs, spreading disease to other groups of people.
It would be interesting to see the demographics of those infected.
Sorry if I missed it, any fatalities unofficially reported? Once again demographics as well as comorbitities are as important as reported numbers to get an accurate view.
-
Good. Let's get some healthy, strong people working outdoors in the sun to be exposed to this virus. Seems a very low cost (in terms of lives lost) way to move towards herd immunity.
More like spread the infection to other communities and pick up the infection from other communities, they got to eat and sleep somewhere. Not like every town has a asphalt paving crew that services a small area. Sun doesn't shine inside your body or the portable toilets.
-
Incidentally, THIS is what we should have done:
From the quote, he said they were willing to take a risk and NOT shut down the entire economy.
That's a far cry from, "Let's kill off Grandma!" It's a measured risk that can be rationally disagreed about. Those elderly can much more easily, with much smaller disruptions, self-quarantine. Few of them have jobs and have to go out.
If they're really concerned, the state/city/county/neighbors/etc... can provide delivery services to the at risk population and allow them to self-quarantine more easily.
Back then we were expecting a two week shutdown, so shutting everything down seemed acceptable. Hard, but acceptable.
We're coming up on TWO MONTHS now. The vulnerable should have locked themselves away (with support from neighbors/friends/family/government to provide food/rent/etc... at a MUCH lower cost than our current spending) and most people should have gone to work as normal with extra care about not touching faces and possibly wearing masks. (Which, at that time we were told "WON'T WORK ANYWAY!")
Hindsight is 20/20, but no one is apparently even applying it to today. They are all acting like we have no idea what this virus will do when it is daily proving that it is not the plague that it was predicted to be.
-
It would be interesting to see the demographics of those infected.
Sorry if I missed it, any fatalities unofficially reported? Once again demographics as well as comorbitities are as important as reported numbers to get an accurate view.
Iowa does have a running Covid-19 death count that is updated every morning, so it is at least 24 hours old and it is only what is reported by health care workers to public health, could have a lot of deaths that were Covid, but unknown because they didn't test the person, like pneumonia caused by Covid-19, etc. Just like people don't die from AIDS/HIV is something else they die from because their immune system was compromised by HIV/AIDS, hence death from complications due to HIV/AIDS. They don't break it down to exact age or preexisting conditions, just age ranges, sex and county of death. When this is all over with, you know there is going to be a gazillion medical journal articles on this, this pandemic is only a couple months old.
-
I thought we were all supposed to be dead by now... ???
-
I thought we were all supposed to be dead by now... ???
No just 2-3% of those who got infected.
-
Numbers were released recently (yesterday) from the testing results. News has said that all employees in these plants have been tested. Iowa hasn't peaked yet either. Iowa isn't releasing death numbers from these plants but they will for the counties the plants are located in with some age/sex demographics.
So for this group we've got infection numbers but not death numbers. We know the denominator but not the numerator. No better.
The point stands. At the moment (and hopefully this will change) the death rates aren't based on good info.
-
As long as the subject of Covid hoaxers was raised, what does that even mean that people think it's a hoax? Unless people are actually suggesting the disease not exist, and the victims are all crisis actors, the "hoax" talk is just smearing people for being "deniers." Which there's been way too much of the past decade, thank you very much.
-
No just 2-3% of those who got infected.
What? Unless you believe the number of cases we have confirmed represents half of the actual cases (when we have strong evidence that a LOT of asymptomatic people have or have had the virus), there's no way you can think the death rate is 2-3%
That's worse than the Spanish Flu.
-
What? Unless you believe the number of cases we have confirmed represents half of the actual cases (when we have strong evidence that a LOT of asymptomatic people have or have had the virus), there's no way you can think the death rate is 2-3%
That's worse than the Spanish Flu.
I repeated what was said when this pandemic first started.
-
It would be interesting to see the demographics of those infected.
Some states are releasing demo makeups. I found a few here:
California: https://update.covid19.ca.gov/#top
Washington: https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/NovelCoronavirusOutbreak2020COVID19/DataDashboard
New Jersey: https://covid19.nj.gov/#live-updates
Massachusetts: https://www.mass.gov/doc/covid-19-dashboard-may-5-2020/download
Illinois: https://dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics
Indiana: https://www.coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm
Ohio: https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards
-
So for this group we've got infection numbers but not death numbers. We know the denominator but not the numerator. No better.
The point stands. At the moment (and hopefully this will change) the death rates aren't based on good info.
The death numbers will come out, it's only been a couple weeks since the packing plant outbreaks, not like people are dying a few days or week after becoming infected.
-
What? Unless you believe the number of cases we have confirmed represents half of the actual cases (when we have strong evidence that a LOT of asymptomatic people have or have had the virus), there's no way you can think the death rate is 2-3%
That's worse than the Spanish Flu.
Estimated that 500 million people were infected with Spanish Flu, estimated that 50 million people dies from it, that is 10% of the infected that died.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
-
Estimated that 500 million people were infected with Spanish Flu, estimated that 50 million people dies from it, that is 10% of the infected that died.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html
I had read that it was 2.5%. Looking for the numbers, it seems there is a wide range from 2% to 20% estimated.
Good to know we've got no idea about the flu's death rate, either.
-
I had read that it was 2.5%. Looking for the numbers, it seems there is a wide range from 2% to 20% estimated.
Good to know we've got no idea about the flu's death rate, either.
Didn't have Facebook epidemiologists/lawyers/doctors/coaches/historians back in 1918 either. :rofl:
-
Good to know we've got no idea about the flu's death rate, either.
That's not just the numbers from long ago either. The deaths for recent years, that are so commonly used as comparison for Covid19, are "fake statistics" too.
The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts.
-
The death numbers will come out, it's only been a couple weeks since the packing plant outbreaks, not like people are dying a few days or week after becoming infected.
Yes, I agree that at some point in the future we will have numbers that will be useful.
-
A read if anyone cares too
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/three-potential-futures-for-covid-19/
Also another link for Ron to yell Bullshit! at too.
-
A read if anyone cares too
https://www.statnews.com/2020/05/01/three-potential-futures-for-covid-19/
Also another link for Ron to yell Bullshit! at too.
The article is far less dogmatic than you or the fearmongers.
They actually give three divergent scenerios admitting they don't know.
-
That's not just the numbers from long ago either. The deaths for recent years, that are so commonly used as comparison for Covid19, are "fake statistics" too.
We don't know the actual flu death numbers either, they are extrapolated after the fact.
They don't run antibody tests every year to get the numbers.
-
Based on the health department briefings, there does not yet seem to be very much medical research findings supporting the concept of herd immunity from being infected by the virus. There are certainly numbers of people who have had COVID as confirmed by testing, and then contracted it again. Herd immunity will work once a substantial percentage of the population gets an effective vaccine.
-
The article is far less dogmatic than you or the fearmongers.
They actually give three divergent scenerios admitting they don't know.
If I'm a "fearmonger" does that make you an ostrich?
-
Based on the health department briefings, there does not yet seem to be very much medical research findings supporting the concept of herd immunity from being infected by the virus. There are certainly numbers of people who have had COVID as confirmed by testing, and then contracted it again. Herd immunity will work once a substantial percentage of the population gets an effective vaccine.
If you can get it again after being infected, how is a vaccine going to be effective?
-
If I'm a "fearmonger" does that make you an ostrich?
Questioning the use of bad data, incomplete data as well as questioning the worst models ever, maybe even worse than the climate models, is using good judgement not being an ostrich.
Questioning the narrative being promulgated by the treasonous press and their treasonous Democrat lackeys is smart and wise, not being an ostrich.
One thing you can count on being true, the official media and government narrative is never true.
-
Questioning the use of bad data, incomplete data as well as questioning the worst models ever, maybe even worse than the climate models, is using good judgement not being an ostrich.
Questioning the narrative being promulgated by the treasonous press and their treasonous Democrat lackeys is smart and wise, not being an ostrich.
One thing you can count on being true, the official media and government narrative is never true.
The data is so new, disease hasn't run it current course and it's been 102 years since the last real global pandemic (and we are a very global world). You can't make a final answer on what you are given in minutes, hours or even days.
Perhaps aren't your curious why this hasn't exploded like predicted back in March because the social/economic controls actually worked?
-
The data is so new, disease hasn't run it current course and it's been 102 years since the last real global pandemic (and we are a very global world). You can't make a final answer on what you are given in minutes, hours or even days.
Perhaps aren't your curious why this hasn't exploded like predicted back in March because the social/economic controls actually worked?
Social economic controls were built into the models already. They failed spectacularly. Garbage, could have picked numbers out of a hat and done better.
-
Based on the health department briefings, there does not yet seem to be very much medical research findings supporting the concept of herd immunity from being infected by the virus. There are certainly numbers of people who have had COVID as confirmed by testing, and then contracted it again. Herd immunity will work once a substantial percentage of the population gets an effective vaccine.
A report I heard today stated that people in Stockholm Sweden already have @25% herd immunity. ???
-
A report I heard today stated that people in Stockholm Sweden already have @25% herd immunity. ???
25% tested positive for antibodies.
Whether previous infections are enough to prevent future infections we don't know yet.
-
25% tested positive for antibodies.
Whether previous infections are enough to prevent future infections we don't know yet.
Maybe the Swedes know ..... ???
-
Maybe the Swedes know ..... ???
If they do, they have not published any case reports or papers in the peer-reviewed medical literature. Which is what is typically done to share valid findings.
-
The data is so new, disease hasn't run it current course and it's been 102 years since the last real global pandemic (and we are a very global world). You can't make a final answer on what you are given in minutes, hours or even days.
Perhaps aren't your curious why this hasn't exploded like predicted back in March because the social/economic controls actually worked?
While not absolutely impossible, it is incredibly difficult to prove a negative. In this case, the lack of any controls does make it impossible to prove that social distancing and other preventive measures had any real effect. It's guesswork and supposition at best.
-
If they do, they have not published any case reports or papers in the peer-reviewed medical literature. Which is what is typically done to share valid findings.
That doesn't mean it isn't true. First, it may be a bit early to expect peer-reviews and medical publication. Also, covid 19 isn't the only Corona virus, and it is genetically very close to others; it's singular unusual trait seems to be it's much more easily transmited. There is no reason not to believe there is some immunity resulting from surviving the Andromeda Strain ...ooooops, I mean covid 19 (I keep making that mistake; silly me [tinfoil] ) just from previous experience with what we know.
I'm NOT trying to say there is such immunity, only that I think we have good reason to believe it is happening. Time will tell, I guess.
Another thing; it's typical for viruses to get weaker as time goes on. Killing off hosts is a very bad strategy from a evolution/survival of the organism point of view.
-
While not absolutely impossible, it is incredibly difficult to prove a negative. In this case, the lack of any controls does make it impossible to prove that social distancing and other preventive measures had any real effect. It's guesswork and supposition at best.
It is also highly likely that social controls could have had a great effect on things while the shutting down small businesses all across the country was not necessary at all.
-
A question for this group: How many large businesses are completely shut down right now? I know some like gun companies are shut down for other reasons. Most larger companies I can think of are still operating even if at a lower capacity. I may be missing quite a few so I thought I would ask the question and see what y'all think.
-
My company isn't very large (~140 employees) and it never stopped operating, although a number of employees are either working from home, have had hours reduced, or have been furloughed.
-
My company isn't very large (~140 employees) and it never stopped operating, although a number of employees are either working from home, have had hours reduced, or have been furloughed.
My company is doing the same. Our corporate office is 100% work from home. I work at a plant and we are doing an A team/B team split. Most of the chemical plants down here have not shut down. They have deferred work and minimized contractors coming on site, but they are still operating. The only businesses I come in contact with that were shut down were restaurants and barber shops. Seems like this whole shut down is disproportionately affecting small businesses.
-
A question for this group: How many large businesses are completely shut down right now? I know some like gun companies are shut down for other reasons. Most larger companies I can think of are still operating even if at a lower capacity. I may be missing quite a few so I thought I would ask the question and see what y'all think.
I think all the kill plants are up and running here in Iowa again. A couple ethanol plants are shut down or running lower capacity due to demand. One is shutdown for upgrading and expansion, was supposed to over the summer but they started early due to demand reduction. Haven't heard of any manufacturing shutting down or than Winnebago did for a couple weeks in early April. Anything involved with Agronomy inputs is running at full capacity.
-
My company (a very, very large telecom company) has everyone that can work from home doing so. I'm not one of those. Other than that we are pretty much business as usual. But company business travel is shut down and some install jobs were temporarily delayed to avoid bring contractors in from out of state.
A little ironic on the work from home deal, last year they had a big push to return remote workers to crowded cube farms because it's more productive. Anyone that didn't live within xx miles of a designated work center was laid off.
-
My company (a very, very large telecom company) has everyone that can work from home doing so. I'm not one of those. Other than that we are pretty much business as usual. But company business travel is shut down and some install jobs were temporarily delayed to avoid bring contractors in from out of state.
A little ironic on the work from home deal, last year they had a big push to return remote workers to crowded cube farms because it's more productive. Anyone that didn't live within xx miles of a designated work center was laid off.
We went thru that same purge here about a year ago. What my execs are really *trying* to get to (and one building is converted already) is everybody working in "agile spaces", where everybody is packed in about 2 or 3 feet apart. I'm not sure they even have an assigned locker for their stuff.
I refuse to even try that; if forced, I will just find an unused break area or conference room in a distant building to camp out in seclusion. "Where's Bob?" "I dunno, he's online and his status says he's onsite"
-
My prediction: the tiny house movement is never heard from again.
-
My company (a very, very large telecom company) has everyone that can work from home doing so. I'm not one of those. Other than that we are pretty much business as usual. But company business travel is shut down and some install jobs were temporarily delayed to avoid bring contractors in from out of state.
A little ironic on the work from home deal, last year they had a big push to return remote workers to crowded cube farms because it's more productive. Anyone that didn't live within xx miles of a designated work center was laid off.
Is it me or are all the major telecom companies run by morons?
-
Is it me or are all the major telecom companies run by morons?
aholes for sure but some must be less moronic than others. Consider the AT&T/T-Mobile merger attempt. The failed merger bid resulted in AT&T paying T-Mobile $4 BILLION as penalty for the failed merger bid. That $4 Billion payday for T-Mobile funded the growth of their network and infrastructure to the point where they are now set to over shadow AT&T in the wireless world when they complete their merger with Sprint. So...AT&T- Idiots, T-Mobile maybe not so much.
But si certainly the CEO of AT&T didn't even forfeit his annual bonus for that flusterlcuck and remained as CEO for almost another decade it didn't matter much to him anyway.
-
When I had the money to invest T kicked its own ass several times
-
Iowa has changed how they present the data. Added more info to the state's Covid-19 website
https://coronavirus.iowa.gov/pages/case-counts?fbclid=IwAR1MNAZGsYrqJBslom2S9JxMfwIIINld7784EQ01pIk7szJoqKEFEUJuDOc
-
CDC numbers just over 60k deaths surpassing my earlier uneducated guess. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Of course the reported numbers are dung.
The media are reporting over 80k deaths pretty regularly now so with a fudge factor of 20k and actual reported cases being based upon criteria that is tantamount to lying we really don't know squat.
Amazingly, at least regarding deaths, in the USA even using bogus numbers, the "it's a bad flu" crowd are currently closer to the truth than the "experts".
You may now go back to your regularly scheduled programmed fear and panic.
-
CDC numbers just over 60k deaths surpassing my earlier uneducated guess. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm
Of course the reported numbers are dung.
The media are reporting over 80k deaths pretty regularly now so with a fudge factor of 20k and actual reported cases being based upon criteria that is tantamount to lying we really don't know squat.
Amazingly, at least regarding deaths, in the USA even using bogus numbers, the "it's a bad flu" crowd are currently closer to the truth than the "experts".
You may now go back to your regularly scheduled programmed fear and panic.
Saw AP headlines over a picture of Trump screaming over 90,000 last week
-
Saw AP headlines over a picture of Trump screaming over 90,000 last week
Johns Hopkins is reporting 90,373 this morning.
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6
-
After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction.
-
After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction.
... of 5 million dead? By September?
-
I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.
I said when it's all over.
-
I said when it's all over.
And when asked what that meant clarified Sept. 3rd.
If you meant “By the time humans stop dying from related viruses” then your estimate is way low.
-
And when asked what that meant clarified Sept. 3rd.
If you meant “By the time humans stop dying from related viruses” then your estimate is way low.
May I extend my Covid deadline.
-
I said when it's all over.
Want to give us some numbers for flu deaths?
-
Want to give us some numbers for flu deaths?
Really not the same, you know that. Flu doesn't make you bleed out the eyes either.
-
Really not the same, you know that. Flu doesn't make you bleed out the eyes either.
You are a fear monger.
-
Really not the same, you know that. Flu doesn't make you bleed out the eyes either.
I thought that was ebola.
-
May I extend my Covid deadline.
You can change your mind as many times as you like.
-
I thought that was ebola.
I asked the same question this am.
-
Really not the same, you know that. Flu doesn't make you bleed out the eyes either.
We"re not sure COVID does either. As far as I am aware the question has been asked, but not answered.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2052297520300214
Unless you have some actual evidence?
For what it's worth, SARS and MERS both also had low incidence side effects of hemorrhaging (intracranial and elsewhere). Basically the whole coronavirus family can, very rarely, do something weird and end up acting like a hemorrhagic fever. If you roll that particular set of snake-eyes you probably won't make it. That doesn't change the fact that it's primarily a respiratory disease with a high survival rate.
To head any other fearmongers off, COVID-19 can also cause brain, liver, and kidney issues, up to and including organ failure, and in some cases weird clotting* issues as well. It's still a pretty survivable disease.
After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction.
I think the only way you are even getting close to that number is if you include the poverty related deaths the shutdown will cause.
*Yes, COVID can make you bleed, not bleed, or not mess with you blood at all. This is the problem with using the far ends of the bell curve as "symptoms ".
-
charby,
So what's your new time frame for 5 million dead Americans, all bleeding from their eyes based on your secret source?
-
Bleeding from the eyeballs is a symptom of watching The Rise of Skywalker
-
charby,
So what's your new time frame for 5 million dead Americans, all bleeding from their eyes based on your secret source?
All? Really? Did I type all?
Timeframe is when Covid runs it course in the US, you can't put an exact date in it, going to flare up and going to simmer a bit. Not over until most have antibodies for Covid 19 has via exposure or vaccine. Development of effective vaccines don't happen very fast so this is going to linger for the unforeseeable future. We already have enough skeptics vaccines that it may take even longer for herd immunity once an effective vaccine is available.
-
We already have enough skeptics vaccines that it may take even longer for herd immunity once an effective vaccine is available.
That's what happens when you call the feds overreact based on wildly wrong models AND then refuse to correct course once the models are shown to be WILDLY off base. E.g. Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin.... (just pick every state with a Democrat Governor minus, surprisingly, Colorado.)
People can see the facts on the ground. IFF this had been shown to be a seriously dangerous disease, people would have accepted most of these stupid restrictions.
They have eyes. They can see it is nowhere near as dangerous as it was made out to be and that the original reason for all the lockdowns (SAVE THE HOSPITALS!!!>!111!>!!) is now "KILL THE HOSPITALS TO SAVE GRANDMA!!!"
(Now, grandma will die of something else that COULD have been treated if the hospitals had survived, but hey, she didn't die of COVID!)
-
Timeframe is when Covid runs it course in the US, you can't put an exact date in it, going to flare up and going to simmer a bit. Not over until most have antibodies for Covid 19 has via exposure or vaccine. Development of effective vaccines don't happen very fast so this is going to linger for the unforeseeable future. We already have enough skeptics vaccines that it may take even longer for herd immunity once an effective vaccine is available.
Fair enough, but five million Americans dead of COVID-19 by September 3 as you originally suggested is very different than if 5 million Americans die from it over the next 60 years or something.
Anyhow, I'd be happy to bet a good chunk of money against 5 million Americans dying from Covid-19 in any reasonable time period.
-
Incidentally, I'm still sticking with my prediction.
The government will fast track the vaccine, which will be available this fall. Most people will get it and the Chinese virus will have become one more "flu" to deal with.
Summer will cause a natural ebb in the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus, leading to a recovery. By election time, the stock market will have been recovered and Trump sails to victory.
Oh, and all the spending moves us 6 months closer to the reckoning for unfunded liabilities.
-
Let's set the number of dead from the first wave at something pretty high, say 200,000 dead 'Muricans.
Then let's say there is, as many have predicted, a second wave late in the year, which is worse than the first. Say 400,000.
That's over half a million this year. Let's say in subsequent years, we are all super-serious about masks and staying at home, and we get better at treating the illness, so we reduce the death toll to just 400,000. That's high, but we're giving the pessimists the benefit here.
If I'm mathing my maths right, we would hit 5 million dead in about 12 years. If there's a vaccine to be found, you'd think we'd have found it by then.
So if, instead of Sept. 2020, charby really meant Dec. 2032...
-
That's what happens when you call the feds overreact based on wildly wrong models AND then refuse to correct course once the models are shown to be WILDLY off base. E.g. Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin.... (just pick every state with a Democrat Governor minus, surprisingly, Colorado.)
People can see the facts on the ground. IFF this had been shown to be a seriously dangerous disease, people would have accepted most of these stupid restrictions.
They have eyes. They can see it is nowhere near as dangerous as it was made out to be and that the original reason for all the lockdowns (SAVE THE HOSPITALS!!!>!111!>!!) is now "KILL THE HOSPITALS TO SAVE GRANDMA!!!"
Where, I've wondered rhetorically, are the piles of corpses?
-
Where, I've wondered rhetorically, are the piles of corpses?
Only the Clinton's know for sure
Whoops, those weren't the piles you were asking about.
-
Fair enough, but five million Americans dead of COVID-19 by September 3 as you originally suggested is very different than if 5 million Americans die from it over the next 60 years or something.
Anyhow, I'd be happy to bet a good chunk of money against 5 million Americans dying from Covid-19 in any reasonable time period.
1918 Pandemic was a bit over 12 months long, Black Death was about 5 years. We've only been at this since December.
If you can comprehend how the Covid virus attacks the body and how the body responds, you might think a bit differently. Especially how more contagious Covid is vs the various flus and their strains. For both it's still a secondary infection that ends up killing the person, but the initial viral attack is what started it.
-
1918 Pandemic was a bit over 12 months long, Black Death was about 5 years. We've only been at this since December.
The implicit assumption and assertion is that these are all comparable. - Ron
If you can comprehend how the Covid virus attacks the body and how the body responds, you might think a bit differently. Or you might not. That is just boilerplate fear mongering - Ron
Especially how more contagious Covid is vs the various flus and their strains. For both it's still a secondary infection that ends up killing the person, but the initial viral attack is what started it. 45% of Illinois deaths were in managed care facilities and the infection rates on board ships doesn't really support your assertion. - Ron
-
I wasn't replying to you
-
1918 Pandemic was a bit over 12 months long, Black Death was about 5 years. We've only been at this since December.
So do you claim that there will be 5 million US deaths by the end of the year? By 2025? By 2080? Just trying to get a handle on exactly what you're estimating.
If you can comprehend how the Covid virus attacks the body and how the body responds, you might think a bit differently. Especially how more contagious Covid is vs the various flus and their strains. For both it's still a secondary infection that ends up killing the person, but the initial viral attack is what started it.
I suppose it is possible. I'm happy to admit a good bit of ignorance and am happy to learn more. From what I've seen so far, however, we're not going to hit 5 million deaths in the US short of a major mutation or a perpetual inability to develop immunity.
Out of interest, are you professing to have that level of comprehension?
Having crunched the numbers more than a few ways, I can get to 5 million using some not completely unreasonable assumptions.
1. We assume we've caught 50% of the infections.
2. We assume that the death rate we've seen by age group holds.
3. We assume every single American gets it.
Under those conditions we'll get about 5 million deaths.
That said, I don't think we've tested enough people to assume we've identified anywhere close to 50% of the infections especially given the known incidence of a significant number of people never manifesting detectable symptoms, and most of the testing is not capable of detecting previous infection - just active infection.
-
So do you claim that there will be 5 million US deaths by the end of the year? By 2025? By 2080? Just trying to get a handle on exactly what you're estimating.
I suppose it is possible. I'm happy to admit a good bit of ignorance and am happy to learn more. From what I've seen so far, however, we're not going to hit 5 million deaths in the US short of a major mutation or a perpetual inability to develop immunity.
Out of interest, are you professing to have that level of comprehension?
Having crunched the numbers more than a few ways, I can get to 5 million using some not completely unreasonable assumptions.
1. We assume we've caught 50% of the infections.
2. We assume that the death rate we've seen by age group holds.
3. We assume every single American gets it.
Under those conditions we'll get about 5 million deaths.
That said, I don't think we've tested enough people to assume we've identified anywhere close to 50% of the infections especially given the known incidence of a significant number of people never manifesting detectable symptoms, and most of the testing is not capable of detecting previous infection - just active infection.
No one knows when Covid is going to end, I really don't know why I said Sept 3rd, probably conjurned it out of thin air when asked for a date. I brought up those 2 psndemics because neither one lasted forever and both spread rapidly through a global population. We all think of inconvenient things far too short term and get pissy if it lasts too long.
I agree we haven't tested enough people, they need to open the testing flood gates and let anyone who volunteers to be tested, say no more than 1x week until this is over.
If it rains this weekend I'll post a few links to easy to read medical type journals thst explains what happens to the human body when a upper respiratory viral infection occurs.
-
"No one knows when Covid is going to end..."
According to some of the lefty crap I've read, it's NEVER going to end, so we need all of these draconian social measures maintained for years, and everyone has to be FORCED to take whatever vaccine they come up with.
It's all for the widdle chillruns, don't you know...
WON'T SOMEONE PLEASE THINK OF THE WIDDLE CHILLRUNS???
Oh, and if it hurts Orange Man, that's even better!
-
Dr Fauci doesn't agree with Charby :laugh:
... this is not a major threat for the people in the United States, and this is not something that the citizens of the United States right now should be worried about. Jan 21
... the risk of contracting the virus is “minuscule.” Feb. 8
Now, in the United States, there is absolutely no reason whatsoever to wear a mask. Feb. 17
“right now, at this moment, there is no need to change anything you’re doing on a day-to-day basis.” Feb. 29
“If you are a healthy young person, there is no reason if you want to go on a cruise ship, go on a cruise ship.” March 9
“… the overall clinical consequences of COVID-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.” March 26
-
Seeing as this is the prediction thread, let's get a prediction from good ol' Dr. Fauci
Jan. 12, 2017: “And if there’s one message that I want to leave with you today based on my experience, and you’ll see that in a moment, is that there is no question that there will be a challenge to the coming administration in the arena of infectious diseases, both chronic infectious diseases, in the sense of already ongoing disease, and we have certainly a large burden of that, but also there will be a surprise outbreak.”
-
No one knows when Covid is going to end, I really don't know why I said Sept 3rd, probably conjurned it out of thin air when asked for a date.
Of course no one knows. No one knows how many people are going to die either, but we've been guessing anyway. This thread is about predictions, isn't it?
My initial guess has proven to almost certainly be low (<100,000 by end of year). Yours appears to be way high based on everything we've seen so far in this country and in other countries ahead of us, but you keep shifting the goalposts so it is hard to tell.
I brought up those 2 psndemics because neither one lasted forever and both spread rapidly through a global population. We all think of inconvenient things far too short term and get pissy if it lasts too long.
I'd argue that given our trade and travel velocity we should expect a much faster rate of spread than in either of those pandemics.
While you're looking up My First Medical Journal articles for me, maybe take a look at some of the preliminary random sample serology test results and - assuming that humans can develop immunity - how that impacts the death rate.
Your estimate requires a minimum of a 1.5% infection mortality rate assuming every single person in the US gets it. I don't think 100% infection rate is likely, nor do any of the antibody results I've seen indicate a 1.5% current death rate is realistic.
-
Your estimate requires a minimum of a 1.5% infection mortality rate assuming every single person in the US gets it. I don't think 100% infection rate is likely, nor do any of the antibody results I've seen indicate a 1.5% current death rate is realistic.
The one place I'll mostly agree with Charby is on "universal" testing. None of our arguments here can be anything but WAGs without it. With it, we might be able to approach SWAGs.
Obviously for most statistical analysis, you don't need very large sample sets. Lots of very accurate analyses have been done with the sample set sizes we currently have for the beer virus. The difference is randomness. IMO, based on current testing parameters and not just who can get tested, but who WANTS to be tested, all our numbers are biased towards a higher infection rate and mortality rate, as well as more severe symptoms. I'm guessing there is a LARGE portion of the population that had a cough or sore throat, or just felt tired for a couple of days and didn't think anything about it, and ended up having the virus.
I would be interested in a truly random sample set of 100,000 people. Maybe that is being done, but I haven't seen anything about it.
-
I agree we haven't tested enough people, they need to open the testing flood gates and let anyone who volunteers to be tested, say no more than 1x week until this is over.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/as-coronavirus-testing-expands-a-new-problem-arises-not-enough-people-to-test/2020/05/17/3f3297de-8bcd-11ea-8ac1-bfb250876b7a_story.html
Four months into the U.S. coronavirus outbreak, tests for the virus finally are becoming widely available, a crucial step toward lifting stay-at-home orders and safely returning to normal life. But while many states no longer report crippling supply shortages, a new problem has emerged: too few people lining up to get tested.
A Washington Post survey of governors’ offices and state health departments found at least a dozen states where testing capacity outstrips the supply of patients. Many have scrambled to make testing more convenient, especially for vulnerable communities, by setting up pop-up sites and developing apps that help assess symptoms, find free test sites and deliver quick results.
But the numbers, while rising, are well short of capacity — and far short of targets set by independent experts.
-
"...No one knows when Covid is going to end,..."
Actually it's never going to end, even if there is a vaccine. A virus never goes away. It's here and it will stay here. The best you can do is find ways to manage it. Nearly every day there is new information with respect to how this became a worldwide pandemic under false pretenses. Was there a disease that spread around the world? Yes. Was it worthy of the political/MSM *expletive deleted*it storm it became. I don't think so, and I think over the next few months what my grandmother always told me as a kid..."The truth will out." She also said "Never lie, tell the truth, because then you won't have to remember the story."
-
The real covid danger now is people being run over by moving goal posts.
-
The real covid danger now is people being run over by moving goal posts.
:rofl:
-
Here's a prediction based on what I've been hearing on the news: Silicon Valley becomes irrelevant. A good portion of tech companies are now offering permanent "work from home" options for employees. So instead of camping in the Google parking lot or paying $6000/mo to rent an apartment, more of their workers will be living out of the area or out of the state.
If it's a trend that continues, all those companies will be able to significantly downsize their physical footprints and thus reduce their CA tax liabilities. While the big tech companies have always been pro- work from home, I've always been surprised that they didn't go more whole hog on it much earlier. The virus may have ended up being the push to show them that expanding the option is completely viable, and perhaps even more profitable.
-
I thought we were all gonna be dead by now ???
-
Here's a prediction based on what I've been hearing on the news: Silicon Valley becomes irrelevant. A good portion of tech companies are now offering permanent "work from home" options for employees. So instead of camping in the Google parking lot or paying $6000/mo to rent an apartment, more of their workers will be living out of the area or out of the state.
If it's a trend that continues, all those companies will be able to significantly downsize their physical footprints and thus reduce their CA tax liabilities. While the big tech companies have always been pro- work from home, I've always been surprised that they didn't go more whole hog on it much earlier. The virus may have ended up being the push to show them that expanding the option is completely viable, and perhaps even more profitable.
AT MUCH LESS EXPENSE, any of these companies could pay to upgrade the internet infrastructure of any number of random small towns in the country and provide a low cost location for "hubs" of workers, allowing for working from home, but still the ability to bring workers together for whatever might be necessary.
Instead, they have to pay outrageous salaries just so workers can afford to live in their massively expensive urban areas. I'm still amazed no one has done this without the prompting of a global disease.
-
^^^I would point out that in Seattle, and probably for SF and other tech hubs, the young(ish) tech workers seem to enjoy living and working in the amenities of the urban city. I know a whole bunch of dot com workers in the area, and they are working from their urban condos and apartments in Seattle as part of the COVID response. I suspect they are not all going to head for the suburbs if they are permanently work from home, at least until they start having children.
-
^^^I would point out that in Seattle, and probably for SF and other tech hubs, the young(ish) tech workers seem to enjoy living and working in the amenities of the urban city. I know a whole bunch of dot com workers in the area, and they are working from their urban condos and apartments in Seattle as part of the COVID response. I suspect they are not all going to head for the suburbs if they are permanently work from home, at least until they start having children.
I was going to say the same thing. Not going to find an espresso machine, wheat grass juicer, microbrewery, sushi bar, vegan joint in Pomeroy, IA, but they do have Byron's Legendary Bar (where the who's who of the eclectic and indie music world has played).
-
I talked to one of our senior engineers. He spends all day in conference calls for engineering reviews and such. He told me the main difference now is he doesn't have 2 hours of driving in traffic every day. The only thing he knows is missing is the random questions and quick discussions that happen in the hallway and people can't just swing by your office.
Another engineer is trying to get signatures on a design review form for a small project. Normally, he could carry it around to each person, but with everyone at home, it becomes more difficult. That process doesn't have an electronic approval system.
Our company may not change anything, but I figure they may expand on policies allowing employees to work from home. A long commute becomes a lot easier to deal with if you only have to do it a couple days a week.
-
If I could work remotely I'd give serious consideration to moving out of DC Metro and to a much more rural area.
But, most of the work that I do these days requires me to work in a SCIF on secured networks. Can't do that from home, generally.
-
^^^I would point out that in Seattle, and probably for SF and other tech hubs, the young(ish) tech workers seem to enjoy living and working in the amenities of the urban city. I know a whole bunch of dot com workers in the area, and they are working from their urban condos and apartments in Seattle as part of the COVID response. I suspect they are not all going to head for the suburbs if they are permanently work from home, at least until they start having children.
I see your point, but submit that Seattle is in fact a "goto" place for these workers. From my work days, I remember lots of the young professionals, most all liberals, would practically get in fist fights to grab an opening at our Seattle complex to get out of SanFran or DC. Same if a rare opening came up in my office in Santa Barbara.
Lots of places give them the culture they want without the expense, crime, poop, and other bad stuff in SanFran.
A sampling of places I have been that would appeal to young liberal tech workers looking for culture, food and other hipster lifestyle stuff:
Boise, ID (in fact many of them are moving there from what I see)
Boulder, CO
Santa Barbara, CA
Mammoth, CA
Helena, MT
Charleston, SC
Charlotte, NC
Key West, FL
San Antonio, TX
Ambergris Cay, Belize (surprisingly fast Internet)
Grand Cayman Island
Munich, Germany
Stockholm, Sweden
Plus for that matter, not all of them WANT an urban life. Heck, Mark Zuckerburg has been doing the "back to the land" homestead thing for years now. Especially after the virus, a lot of these young people are getting into it as well
-
Plus for that matter, not all of them WANT an urban life. Heck, Mark Zuckerburg has been doing the "back to the land" homestead thing for years now. Especially after the virus, a lot of these young people are getting into it as well
Excuse me, I'm off to start a gardening for coders camp. BRB!
-
I see your point, but submit that Seattle is in fact a "goto" place for these workers. From my work days, I remember lots of the young professionals, most all liberals, would practically get in fist fights to grab an opening at our Seattle complex to get out of SanFran or DC. Same if a rare opening came up in my office in Santa Barbara.
Lots of places give them the culture they want without the expense, crime, poop, and other bad stuff in SanFran.
A sampling of places I have been that would appeal to young liberal tech workers looking for culture, food and other hipster lifestyle stuff:
Boise, ID (in fact many of them are moving there from what I see)
Boulder, CO
Santa Barbara, CA
Mammoth, CA
Helena, MT
Charleston, SC
Charlotte, NC
Key West, FL
San Antonio, TX
Ambergris Cay, Belize (surprisingly fast Internet)
Grand Cayman Island
Munich, Germany
Stockholm, Sweden
Plus for that matter, not all of them WANT an urban life. Heck, Mark Zuckerburg has been doing the "back to the land" homestead thing for years now. Especially after the virus, a lot of these young people are getting into it as well
I wonder how many of those cities/towns you mentioned would even want an big influx of younger adults with different social norms.
-
If I was young and single, or old and single, I would move to Boise or Helena in a heartbeat. I have been to both areas on business, and really like them.
-
I wonder how many of those cities/towns you mentioned would even want an big influx of younger adults with different social norms.
Newsflash - most of the towns I mentioned already have the influx, hence their mention.
-
If I was young and single, or old and single, I would move to Boise or Helena in a heartbeat. I have been to both areas on business, and really like them.
I had one of my best steaks ever in Helena. There was some kind of festival going on when I was there and it reminded me of the same scene as in Boulder, but without the snobby 60 year old bald-ponytailed hippie Subaru contingent. :laugh:
I swear half the brewpubs in Boise have been started by young entrepreneurs escaping Portland.
-
Newsflash - most of the towns I mentioned already have the influx, hence their mention.
I mean a bigger influx, like Facebook just moved corporate HQ there.
I left my last town to move where I am is because when Workiva opened there HQ campus there housing became very expensive for what I was making at Iowa State University. Town grows that fast it strains a lot of things, not like you widen a road in a commercial district when store fronts are already close to the curb.
-
I mean a bigger influx, like Facebook just moved corporate HQ there.
I left my last town to move where I am is because when Workiva opened there HQ campus there housing became very expensive for what I was making at Iowa State University. Town grows that fast it strains a lot of things, not like you widen a road in a commercial district when store fronts are already close to the curb.
Well, Boise Metro is certainly an example of that (not just from tech workers). Making it on too many top ten lists has priced many natives out of homes, and traffic is certainly an issue now.
-
A couple of days after reading about a resurgence of C19 in China we get this from the AP
New coronavirus cases in China fell to zero on Saturday for the first time but surged in India and overwhelmed hospitals across Latin America – both in countries lax about lockdowns and those lauded for firm, early confinement. The virus hit a reopened church in Germany and probably a restaurant, too.
Zero?
I will only take cash for the bridge, no checks.
Zero cases in China as virus surges in Latin America, India
https://www.wave3.com/2020/05/23/virus-cases-drop-zero-china-surge-latin-america/
-
A couple of days after reading about a resurgence of C19 in China we get this from the AP
Zero?
I will only take cash for the bridge, no checks.
Zero cases in China as virus surges in Latin America, India
https://www.wave3.com/2020/05/23/virus-cases-drop-zero-china-surge-latin-america/
Seriously, the MSM must be getting paid in Renmimbi.
-
Well, Boise Metro is certainly an example of that (not just from tech workers). Making it on too many top ten lists has priced many natives out of homes, and traffic is certainly an issue now.
We are having the same issue here. It’s nuts. The extreme population explosion is very good for us business wise but forget about living closer than an hour unless you owned your home before. Houses go on the market and they are snapped up in a couple hours with the incoming out of state buyer paying over asking price in cash.
And the developers love to put a dozen subdivisions and apartment complexes on every narrow two lane road.
The better restaurants, shopping, and such however is a nice benefit. The blue influx is not as welcome... I also get the displeasure of seeing a ton of Seattle grade freaks every time I venture downtown now. No homeless shitting on sidewalks and shooting up in front of the cops...yet...but give it time.
-
I also get the displeasure of seeing a ton of Seattle grade freaks every time I venture downtown now.
(https://i.ytimg.com/vi/pz3YzF_yLbE/maxresdefault.jpg)
-
We are having the same issue here. It’s nuts. The extreme population explosion is very good for us business wise but forget about living closer than an hour unless you owned your home before. Houses go on the market and they are snapped up in a couple hours with the incoming out of state buyer paying over asking price in cash.
And the developers love to put a dozen subdivisions and apartment complexes on every narrow two lane road.
The better restaurants, shopping, and such however is a nice benefit. The blue influx is not as welcome... I also get the displeasure of seeing a ton of Seattle grade freaks every time I venture downtown now. No homeless shitting on sidewalks and shooting up in front of the cops...yet...but give it time.
Yeah, I wasn't even looking close to Boise when I was buying, yet still I lost several properties I likely would have put an offer on after doing a walkthrough because some jackass from Sanfran, Portland, or Seattle put in a full price offer over the phone and sight unseen, often just hours after the listing went live. I could never spend that much money on a property without seeing it first. Maybe straight ag land, but never one with a house or shop or other infrastructure.
I do like the food and stuff in downtown Boise. There is an amazing selection - even stuff like Ethiopian and lots of Eastern European / Eurasian stuff that didn't even exist in hip Santa Barbara. Sadly, according to an article I read at the Idaho Freedom Foundation, the new Boise mayor has been quoted as saying she wants Boise to be the next Portland. Kinda funny since a ton of Boisians and Boise businesses, mostly liberal, are people who fled Portland. The Romanians who run the little German store I go to had to flee and they bash Portland every time I go there. :laugh:
-
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/cdc-says-coronavirus-infection-fatality-rate-could-be-low-026-nearly
CDC says death rate may be as low as 1/4% of those infected.
The more we test the lower that number drops.
-
The real covid danger now is people being run over by moving goal posts.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:
I recall telling a friend, "we will all know someone who has died of it by May or June" .... so far thank God I have been wrong.
Here in Reno/Washoe county, we have low numbers. We share a border with the Lake Tahoe region of California, so I'm not sure exactly how bad/good it is locally
since I am to busy to keep up with CA bovine excrement, outside of gun issues.
All the deaths here are folks with real bad comorbidity issues, the overwhelming majority are in institutional settings.
One facility, was a place i had often considered working at because I had worked at a place like it before, lot's of local AA folks had worked there
but I have a grudge against one or two of them so I never applied.
Willow Springs Treatment Facility is for "troubled" kids with addictions and mental issues, they would cough on staff if sick and do whatever they could to infect staff.
It worked, it became a hot zone, I certainly dodged a bullet.
I think blue state nanny types will be fearful/paranoid and red state types will be cautious/independent -
Things seem to be normalizing slowly
-
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-economy-is-headed-for-a-post-coronavirus-depression-nouriel-roubini.html
Well, this doesn't sound good.
-
Climate scientists, Epidemiologists and Economists ... need I say more?
-
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-economy-is-headed-for-a-post-coronavirus-depression-nouriel-roubini.html
Well, this doesn't sound good.
They are building in the assumption of a Biden win in November.
-
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/05/why-the-economy-is-headed-for-a-post-coronavirus-depression-nouriel-roubini.html
Well, this doesn't sound good.
Meh, that's why you plan stock investments for 10-ish year timeframes. Even if it happens, I doubt it will be for a full decade, and there will likely be decent opportunities to buy in for future appreciation. If nothing else, it might be a good opportunity to stabilize interest rates at higher levels than the crazy place they are now.
Tangentially, I just heard a pretty solid analysis of why we'll likely see Dow 20K again before we see Dow 30K, and that it looks like it will happen relatively quickly, which would actually be a good thing - as in, getting that pain over faster (plus second buying opportunity!), plus it would then have a high probability of creating a large third quarter uptick, which would definitely be helpful to Trump.
-
Stock investments for 10 year timeframes are good if you have a job that pays the bills and leaves something left over to invest. If you don't have a job at all, or an underpaying job, stock investing for the long term is the least of your worries. Unless something happens pretty darn quickly to help restore the job market for farming, blue collar and other jobs that cannot be done remotely, the economy will continue to suffer and the President will face an upward battle for re-election.
-
Unless something happens pretty darn quickly to help restore the job market for farming, blue collar and other jobs that cannot be done remotely, the economy will continue to suffer and the President will face an upward battle for re-election.
How about rounding up liberal mayors and governors and quarantining them on an island somewhere so their cities and states can get back to business? =D
-
How about rounding up liberal mayors and governors and quarantining them on an island somewhere so their cities and states can get back to business? =D
Camp Gulag Paradise
No guns
No need to make choices
No free aka hate Speech
Everything is free
Every Sunday you get to choose whatever gender* and race** you want to be that week.
Poop anywhere you want
Unlimited Soy Milk
English optional
* Straight Male excluded
** White excluded
-
Camp Gulag Paradise
No guns
No need to make choices
No free aka hate Speech
Everything is free
Every Sunday you get to choose whatever gender* and race** you want to be that week.
Poop anywhere you want
Unlimited Soy Milk
English optional
* Straight Male excluded
** White excluded
I give it 36 hours before full on Lord of the Flies.
-
I give it 36 hours before full on Lord of the Flies.
No conch either.
-
Stock investments for 10 year timeframes are good if you have a job that pays the bills and leaves something left over to invest. If you don't have a job at all, or an underpaying job, stock investing for the long term is the least of your worries. Unless something happens pretty darn quickly to help restore the job market for farming, blue collar and other jobs that cannot be done remotely, the economy will continue to suffer and the President will face an upward battle for re-election.
Things may change, but I have heard people say Trump is not being blamed for things so far. That could change. However, with the leftists being the primary proponents of continuing the shutdown, we will see. I would hate to count on that.
-
Camp Gulag Paradise
No guns
No need to make choices
No free aka hate Speech
Everything is free
Every Sunday you get to choose whatever gender* and race** you want to be that week.
Poop anywhere you want
Unlimited Soy Milk
English optional
* Straight Male excluded
** White excluded
I don't want to be cruel, I just want us back in business. I'll even let Whitmer bring her boat to the island. =D
-
How about rounding up liberal mayors and governors and quarantining them on an island somewhere so their cities and states can get back to business? =D
Well I was with you up until quarantine.. >:D
-
Data point here. My brother the nurse tells me:
Lots. On any given night my floor will have 10-15 with another 10 or so on ICU. Mentally handicapped, Latins and Blacks hit hardest, in that order.
With reference to the beer virus. He's in Rockford, IL. Urban area of 300-someodd-thousand(ish). He's in one of the hospitals there.
-
Data point here. My brother the nurse tells me:
With reference to the beer virus. He's in Rockford, IL. Urban area of 300-someodd-thousand(ish). He's in one of the hospitals there.
Similar to what I was told and posted on here.
-
Data point here. My brother the nurse tells me:
With reference to the beer virus. He's in Rockford, IL. Urban area of 300-someodd-thousand(ish). He's in one of the hospitals there.
Yeah, it's bad in urban areas.
Meanwhile, our metropolitan area has about 300,000 in total population. The main city is kind of urban at just under 100K. (as part of that 300K total). We've had 343 cases, 33 hospitalizations and 24 deaths. (Spread amongst the 300K population)
But we're getting locked down just like the rest of the state. Because we have an idiot for a governor who wants to make sure the parts of the state that didn't vote for him suffer as much as the parts of the state that did.
-
Not sure what you guys are complaining about. Celebrities sang for us. Celebrities!
-
Data point here. My brother the nurse tells me:
With reference to the beer virus. He's in Rockford, IL. Urban area of 300-someodd-thousand(ish). He's in one of the hospitals there.
A couple more steps in the ongoing conversation:
Me
Just guessing, Mentally handicapped, group home or other subprime housing situation. L & B, just being poor.
Him
Yep. For L&B it's about socialization. Large families, or complex families with needs. Also lots of younger people who can't be kept home, working or socializing. It isn't just high british officials who want to see their girlfriends.
-
Thought I'd gather up some of the predictions and see how they've aged so far.
Currently the US is at 5,513,167 confirmed cases, with 2,387,621 currently infected, and 173,055 dead.
Daily deaths spiked nationally in April-May, had a lull in June, and increased slightly into August. Daily confirmed cases had an initial spike in March, dropped down toward mid-June and hit a big spike in July. Currently daily confirmed cases appear to be dropping significantly since 7/15.
In the US, lockdowns have so far apparently helped to "flatten the curve" as originally intended, but the message quickly morphed to an unsustainable technique for permanent prevention. Some states with lockdowns still in effect have had serious issues. Some states with no lockdown have had serious issues. In essence, lockdowns did not seem to serve to actually prevent the disease, just drag it out over a longer time period.
1-3000 deaths and by June life is pretty normal.
Currently at 5,735% of this guess.
Wishful thinking!
I am going to predict that over 5 million people in the US die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illness before this is all over.
Currently at 3.4% of this guess.
So far way, way high and no apparent way to hit this in any reasonable amount of time, much less in the next two weeks as the initial "September 3rd" clarification would require. I sure hope 4,827,945 people don't die in the next two weeks.
I predict
Over 99% of the country will survive.
The government will end up even more powerful.
The rich will still be rich.
The poor will still be poor.
If we take the literal implication that 1% of the US will die, then the guess of 3.28 million was a high and we are currently at 5.2% of this guess.
Otherwise a very accurate prediction.
In 10 days, we'll have at least 6 major cities including New York where the hospitals are war zones.
I'm doubling down on my prediction that the US ends up with the most overall confirmed cases, and ends up with a very high death toll.
No numbers to evaluate.
I don't think very many US hospitals looked like war zones - especially not across six major cities at a go. NYC maybe, though. US has far and away the most confirmed cases and has a very high death toll, so all in all a pretty accurate (if vague) guess.
This will transfer over to our swine herds and kill a lot of pigs.
I didn't see any articles about this. Has COVID started killing pigs?
So 4 million dead Americans.
Currently at 4.3% of this guess.
I’m guessing way less than that. I don’t have a solid feeling on numbers but I think 100,000 dead in the US max.
In the US we are at 1.6% death rate currently with our meager testing. The denominator is almost certainly much, much larger.
Currently at 172% of this guess.
Way optimistic on deaths (even if the guess made me look like a pessimist when I posted it). Current US death rate is 3.1%, which is the opposite direction from what I thought it would go.
As sadistic as this sounds, we're just getting started and it's been a fustercluck from the start, the all ready loaded medical/hospital system is going to crash hard, plus we simply don't have enough medical aids/nurses/drs nationwide for this.
Going to be like Italy where old people are just let to die and alone because of no visitors.
On a national level the medical/hospital system has not crashed hard. Ended up having way too many docs/nurses/medical aids.
Some old people did die alone because of no visitors. I don't think we had a widespread policy of not treating old people the way Italy did, though.
I still at least 2 million people in the US are going to die from Covid-19 or Covid-19 related illnesses because enough people aren't STF home and feel the need to mingle in larger groups.
Currently at under 8.6% of this guess. Very prescient condemnation of BLM riots, though.
I'm extremely fatalistic about COVID and I don't see the numbers ending up even that high. I think 20k +/- confirmed covid fatalities.
But most of those will be concentrated in a few key locations. NY, LA primarily.
Of course, if it gets into the homeless pop in CA and WA...that is a different story.
Currently at 860% of this guess.
Way low on deaths. Not bad about pointing out the wildly disproportionate impact on NYC and LA.
My unscientific, intuitive prediction is ... 50k or fewer will sucomb to this virus in the USA.
Most all of them will be elderly and/or having preexisting complications.
Currently at 344% of this guess.
Low on the death count, correct on the demographics.
After a phone call this AM, still sticking with my original prediction [5 million dead "before this is all over"].
Currently at 3.4% of this guess.
Way high by all appearances, but I never could get charby to settle on a new date after the first one, so maybe he'll be proven correct on some as-yet-uncertain date in the future. Also funny how many times the guess and time frame changed despite "sticking with" it. Also, the whole "dying bleeding from the eyes" thing kind of went away...
-
I predict no second wave. There may be increased infection or death rates in some places that will be referred to as a second wave (as we have already seen) but that will just be the first wave hitting some place it had largely bypassed until then.
-
https://twitter.com/pdabrosca/status/1295789508223479810
-
I thought we were all supposed to be dead by now ???
-
I thought we were all supposed to be dead by now ???
If you just live in fear that works also.
-
If you just live in fear that works also.
Fear is the mind killer..
Also, can't beat Cordex's last post for a bit of confirmation bias/ schadenfreude/