Armed Polite Society
Main Forums => Politics => Topic started by: peteinct on July 30, 2021, 09:07:37 AM
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I was talking to the guys at work and I said I wouldnt be surprised to see an another civil war in my lifetime(25 years). Someone asked me what would be the trigger point to start a shooting war. He believes we are are too comfortable in the US and will never get to an active rebellion. Considering the path we are going down now, I couldnt think of anything that would get enough people mad enough to actually start something. His thought was vaccine side effects that were so bad that they couldnt be hidden. Mine was an outright seizure of 401k money. What do you guys think? Is there going to be something that moves us out of the as Claire Wolfe puts it "akward stage"?
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I am not sure a single thing could do it. I think it would take a group of bad things happening. Most people still have comfortable lives even if they have more anxiety. It will take a lot to get them to risk that.
Eventually, one of these politicians is going to be arrogant enough to try to become a dictator in fact rather than behind the scenes and/or elections will become a complete joke. When things like that become reality, the type of arrogant leadership that will bring will lead to many events that should get everyone's attention.
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These are my trigger points:
- Obvious election fraud. Last year doesn't meet the mark.
- Asset seizures in the name of fairness/redistribution/taxes. If the IRS seized my 401k that would push me over the edge.
- Any of the various forms of dictatorship
Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war. A guerilla war is more likely.
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. He believes we are are too comfortable in the US and will never get to an active rebellion. Considering the path we are going down now, I couldnt think of anything that would get enough people mad enough to actually start something.
It might take less than many think. I remember how much chaos erupted when the food stamp system went down for a few hours. Not saying something like that would start a rebellion on it's own but it's a reminder of just how fragile many things we take for granted are and often all it takes is for one domino to fall to start the process.
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Didn't finish my train of thought above.
I think the left by it's very nature is much more reactionary than the right so something as simple as the food stamp system going down but this time instead of hours for days or even weeks could trigger mass protests which could in turn trigger far leftists to give it a go at an overthrow which in turn finally trigger the right into doing something
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I don't think there will be a civil war in my lifetime.
The political divisions aren't as geographically obvious as they were for the last civil war.
And most obviously, a huge percentage of the people are dependent on federal spending. There are large numbers of federal employees. Consider all the old people on SS and Medicare. I read that 80% of the income for the bottom 20% of the people comes from government transfer payments. A lot of "middle class" people get a lot of transfer payments.
Are these people going to support anything to cut off the flow of free money?
The only there would be a civil war is if these transfer payments stopped, or were rendered insignificant by inflation.
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The political divisions aren't as geographically obvious as they were for the last civil war.
Don't use the ACW as you model, think English Civil War or maybe even the Russian Civil War. Or better yet the Balkans. The Left/dems have been trying their darnest to turn the US into the new Yugoslavia.
And most obviously, a huge percentage of the people are dependent on federal spending.
See my food stamp system crashing
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Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war. A guerilla war is more likely.
QFT.
The Left is stupid, not crazy. Well, at least when it comes those in political and leadership roles (I'm intentionally breaking them away from the brain-dead leftist retards roaming around in general population). They talk a lot of smack but I think they are well aware of just how quickly their shaky pedestal would fall if they push too far. Sure, there are some standout idiots getting a lot of press and airtime who seem unwilling to admit the U.S. is anything but two coastlines. Most, though, understand that folks in Deplorable Land have most of the guns and ammo, and control pretty much all of the food, fuel, material items, and logistics. They're bright enough to know how quickly they'd lose should things devolve to a general shooting war.
If anything happens it will likely be in isolated pockets. How those incidents go will determine further actions.
Brad
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That reminds me, I need to pick up a couple more rolls of barbed wire.
=D
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QFT.
The Left is stupid, not crazy. Well, at least when it comes those in political and leadership roles (I'm intentionally breaking them away from the brain-dead leftist retards roaming around in general population). They talk a lot of smack but I think they are well aware of just how quickly their shaky pedestal would fall if they push too far. Sure, there are some standout idiots getting a lot of press and airtime who seem unwilling to admit the U.S. is anything but two coastlines. Most, though, understand that folks in Deplorable Land have most of the guns and ammo, and control pretty much all of the food, fuel, material items, and logistics. They're bright enough to know how quickly they'd lose should things devolve to a general shooting war.
If anything happens it will likely be in isolated pockets. How those incidents go will determine further actions.
Brad
I was thinking it would start with the Feds pushing hard enough some states start seriously looking at breaking away, but even that is just a beginning, not shots fired.
Deploying the Army to enforce federal law would be an interesting trigger. Hard to say. (See thread about Australian Army).
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These are my trigger points:
- Obvious election fraud. Last year doesn't meet the mark.
- Asset seizures in the name of fairness/redistribution/taxes. If the IRS seized my 401k that would push me over the edge.
- Any of the various forms of dictatorship
Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war. A guerilla war is more likely.
I don't know if Dems would go for seizing 401K money. Someone would have to point out where that money is invested and how much of a hit that would be to the economy if it started getting drained. Plus, I am sure someone is using that 401K investment as a form of a control and influence over big corporations.
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I don't know if Dems would go for seizing 401K money. Someone would have to point out where that money is invested and how much of a hit that would be to the economy if it started getting drained. Plus, I am sure someone is using that 401K investment as a form of a control and influence over big corporations.
With the old guard, Pelosi, Schumer, etc.., I would agree. The new guard, AOC and gang, would seize it in a heartbeat.
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Thanks for the replies evryone. Its always interesting to hear other peoples thoughts. I hadnt thought about it from a non rightist point of view but sure if EBT and welfare stops things will be sporty in a very short time like WLJ said. I personally dont think that 401ks will be outright nationalized. Instead they will be nibbled to death by taxes or inflation or special fees or adjustments. It will be something about how only "the rich" or the "1%" or whatever word they use to justify their plunder have money saved. I also feel that the next civil war model will be more like the disintegration of yugoslavia or the fall of the roman republic than our first civil war.
A civil war would be awful. We have a governing class that has openly talked about nuking its own citizens. We have lots of small arms in circulation and a large amount of past and present soldiers. We have a history when push comes to shove of doing what it takes to win. Shermans march through georgia, fire bombing dresden and tokyo and finally nuking hiroshima. Our government seems too insulated from reality or too incompetant to stop turning up the heat too fast so the frog doesnt jump out of the pot.
We live in a bannna republic now. Pete
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Let's not forget about foreign intervention and overseas supply chains.
There will be other countries either standing by or actively participating in any open affray.
Most of the maritime commerce occurs on the coasts, which as far as I can tell would lean Lefty. The gulf ports are easily blockaded.
And as far as I know, no "flyover" states have navies.
Our northern border is pretty porous*, and I can't see those Subjects of the Crown being too sympathetic to an open affray so good luck there.
All in all, an open affray would be a bootless and fruitless pursuit, despite there being a rifle behind every blade of grass.
Terry
* Much of the 5000 mile border is merely demarked by a mown line of grass, maintained by both countries, or things like a roadside ditch.
Sample:
(http://www.slate.com/content/dam/slate/blogs/atlas_obscura/2016/09/19/the_u_s_canada_border_slash_is_a_geographical_border_line_come_to_life/b0312cf28b7a17ef98_4773248534_1f5de418ca_o.jpg.CROP.cq5dam_web_1280_1280_jpeg.jpg)
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These are my trigger points:
- Obvious election fraud. Last year doesn't meet the mark.
- Asset seizures in the name of fairness/redistribution/taxes. If the IRS seized my 401k that would push me over the edge.
- Any of the various forms of dictatorship
Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war. A guerilla war is more likely.
Look behind the curtain of the capital gains transfer tax upon death proposed in the "american families plan"/reconciliation bill This rises to that level for me. The .gov between state and fed would take literally greater than half of my family's farm when my folks pass. And that's before you even start talking about the estate tax. This leads to forced liquidation. Who buys? Either big Ag, or if another current proposal gets legs, "socially disadvantaged" farmers using money stolen from me in taxes and given to them to buy my farm. That may indeed be my rubicon.
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Still, I don't think there would be a full-on civil war. A guerilla war is more likely.
A guerilla civil war, then.
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This could be asked as: "What could be the driving force behind a categorical shift in how our society functions?"
It need not be civil war or insurrections or riots.
There need not be any violence.
What if people just stopped showing up for work?
Stopped paying taxes?
Stopped paying on their debts?
Stopped paying rent?
What if, instead of working to feed themselves, people started growing their own food?
What if, instead of relying on an endless stream of consumer products, people used what they had, repairing as needed?
And what if that caused the entire system of global procurement of products to cease?
And as a result of all that our society went from outwardly looking, cosmopolitan, globally focused to inwardly looking, rural or semi-rural and locally focused?
What might be the factors that cause that chain of events?
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Look behind the curtain of the capital gains transfer tax upon death proposed in the "american families plan"/reconciliation bill This rises to that level for me. The .gov between state and fed would take literally greater than half of my family's farm when my folks pass. And that's before you even start talking about the estate tax. This leads to forced liquidation. Who buys? Either big Ag, or if another current proposal gets legs, "socially disadvantaged" farmers using money stolen from me in taxes and given to them to buy my farm. That may indeed be my rubicon.
I thought most farms had started to get transferred into trusts for just this reason ... have you explored that?
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I thought most farms had started to get transferred into trusts for just this reason ... have you explored that?
Yes, and we had a trust in place to deal with the former/current estate tax paradigm. Everything I've read, including by some very influential CPAs, says this will be essentially unavoidable. There is probably going to be a 15 year deferral if the farm continues to be operated by family, but it's just a deferral, and interest applies, and the .gov will attach a lien, which will make traditional financing like operating lines unavailable due to collateral tie-up. This is an existential threat more serious than any legislation I've seen proposed in the last several decades. Looking at it another way, farm families (including ours) typically work long hours, often 80-100 hour weeks for *expletive deleted*it wages partly because there's a big reward at the end in that the farm is then "yours" to pass on to your own children. If that deal changes to working those hours for those wages so .gov can take half to give to worthless lay-about shithead leaches, well, the calculus changes too. My read on this is that the democrat party despises generational wealth, and this is a dagger to the heart of it.
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Like others, I’m not sure a civil war but one where civil unrest turns ugly.
So many people seem to rely on government funding to survive. Once the government stops paying social programs, funding those on welfare, or just plain stops giving handouts, sh*t will hit the fan. Those that rely on those government dollars will rise up and start taking what they think is entitled and the gorilla war will ensue
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No civil war in the generic sense, I think. As alluded to above, too many people would have to give up an easy life of Amazon and Netflix and pizza delivery, including, if I'm honest with myself, armchair warriors like me. I like to think I would take up arms, but I can't honestly say what would move me from the armchair to the trenches, as it were. The Three Percenters took their name for a reason. =)
On the other hand, I can certainly see a "resistance" forming. Heck, many people, including me, do that now. I moved to where I am to lay low, do pretty much what I want, and avoid the government. I guess you could call it the Alliance and the Independents - the core planets and the outer planets. Don't wanna get pinched by the feds? Don't call the feds. Of course that only works if the feds stay in the core. I live in the Redoubt, so hopefully have some time before the authoritarians make life overly difficult by taking notice of this part of flyover country.
I could maybe see some states at least attempting to assert state rights and tell the feds to *expletive deleted*ck off. Texas seems to be doing a good bit of that. Again, not really civil war, but resistance of a sort, and maybe more people will be forced to migrate from their home states to states more closely aligned with their beliefs, again, perhaps only to gain some time.
I'll agree with posts up above that if you are looking to see where civil war of a sort starts, or at least ongoing domestic terrorism, look no further than the demographics that might lose welfare, EBT, free phones, etc. The Republicans don't have the balls to do anything more than slightly reduce those handouts, and the dems only want to increase them, but if some calamity "X" were to happen that cut off those payments? That right there will be your violent uprising against the government, and while I said I was unsure what might cause me to take up arms against the government, I can tell you that I would for sure take up arms to fight that crowd, without hesitation. I would see it as no different than defending myself against home invaders.
EDIT: Speaking of "why only 3%?", just take a look at the fallout from 06JAN. While yes, they did arrest some knuckleheads that destroyed property, they also did mass arrests of people, including whole families, who did nothing more than show up on the Capitol grounds. Plus jail with no bail, warrantless searches, people who had "friends and family" turn them into the feds, ad nauseum. I'm betting that whole business has a lot of people re-evaluating how, when, and where they might even speak against the government, let alone do something physical.
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First stage will be like a worse version of the current state of the west. Bad time to drive slow through town if you can be identified as a federal employee. Any federal employee.
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.... I'm betting that whole business has a lot of people re-evaluating how, when, and where they might even speak against the government, let alone do something physical.
To that; usually there isn't any political talk around work. Folks pretty much keep their views to themselves. After the announcement that we're now going to be required to wear masks again - some got vaxxed just to not have to wear one - I was approached be numerous fellow workers expressing their displeasure with the current .gov. Negative emotions are starting to get stirred up.
It seems to me that we're already starting down the guerilla civil war path. Looking at Seattle and others this last year, sure seems as if the opening salvos have been fired. My question is will they* calm down or accelerate their agendas? If they don't back off soon, there may be more violence than they're expecting.
*They being those who are pushing the violence, i.e. BLM, Antifa, some politicians, etc.
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Not happening, there isn't a large enough group willing to risk everything to possibly lose everything.
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Not happening, there isn't a large enough group willing to risk everything to possibly lose everything.
I think it becomes increasingly likely that we could see more loner retaliation/vengeance motivated attacks ala Marvin Heemyer.
When the government takes away everything a person has to live for, fear of dieing becomes less of a deterrent.
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Not happening, there isn't a large enough group willing to risk everything to possibly lose everything.
The goal of many leftests is to burn down everything.
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(https://i.imgur.com/xtHuufl.jpg?1)
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Yeah I got a nice Springfield.
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At this point? It will be someone shooting social justice warriors (i.e., someone unloads on a mob about to burn his house/business), and then the government going major crackdown.
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Look behind the curtain of the capital gains transfer tax upon death proposed in the "american families plan"/reconciliation bill This rises to that level for me. The .gov between state and fed would take literally greater than half of my family's farm when my folks pass. And that's before you even start talking about the estate tax. This leads to forced liquidation. Who buys? Either big Ag, or if another current proposal gets legs, "socially disadvantaged" farmers using money stolen from me in taxes and given to them to buy my farm. That may indeed be my rubicon.
I wonder if they're also hoping to fragment families? Because I've noticed, more than a few times, the children of prosperous farmers/business owners utterly destroying things when it gets toward probate...
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I wonder if they're also hoping to fragment families? Because I've noticed, more than a few times, the children of prosperous farmers/business owners utterly destroying things when it gets toward probate...
Destroying the family has always been the goal.
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IMHO even outright government seizure of 401(k) funds wouldn't cause a civil war - but a great many government officials (elected and otherwise) would find that however much taxpayer money they were spending on their own security, it wasn't enough.
If someone - or, possibly, several someones - unloads on a mob about to burn their homes/businesses and .gov orders the constabulary to get them, well . . . if the constabulary agrees and essentially decides to act as a security detail for the mob . . . things will get very ugly very fast.
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Start? It’s already started.
When will it go hot beyond lefties burning their cities down is the question. Pretty much everything has a building period where things start to accelerate quicker and quicker after the “slow boil” period is over. We are in that period. The American Revolution and the Civil War had that period. Rhodesia had it. South Africa is in it.
We have some disturbing things going on right now. Openly fraudulent election, Big Tech not just complying with government censorship but rushing to voluntarily make it happen, the rule of law collapsing (everywhere, not just the whacko cities/states), absolutely crushing people for a spicy walkthrough of the Capital but doing nothing to rioters who literally murder, assault, and commit arson, Antifa/BLM functioning as a terrorism wing of the Democrat party,
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I must again bring up Kurt Schlichter's fictitious Kelly Turnbull series on the splitting of America to red and blue states. The sixth book just dropped on my Kindle. It goes back in time a bit to the beginnings of the split. I look forward to reading it.
As I have read his books, I have continued to think, "Geez Kurt, dial down the over the top stuff concerning the progressives. It's becoming unbelievable." Then a half year or a year later, he turns out to be prescient. Over the top crazy stuff in his fictitious books ends up happening in real life.
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I like Tim Pool’s Timcast podcast series but he is starting to sound chicken littlish on the civil war thing. I think if we see a second fraudulent election leading to total democrat control and continued media and social media bias and censorship it could get interesting. So far, the wealthy are minimally effected and the poor are mostly satisfied. The middle class continues to take the hits.
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You know what could trigger ACW II? Trump winning 2024. The dems would go nuts! Kind of like they did after the 1860 election.
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You know what could trigger ACW II? Trump winning 2024. The dems would go nuts! Kind of like they did after the 1860 election.
Ok, this actually might do it.
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I believe history will repeat itself. You know, shades of 1776...
Woody
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Full on civil war? I doubt you could get a large enough group to form an army on one or both sides. There is a large majority in America that rests in the middle of all of this, most of us included. We just want to live our lives, no matter if we vote R, D, or a little of both. We want a good life, and a better life for our kids.
What I could see is guerilla type actions, if either or both extremes organize. Attacks on one side by the other, similar to some of the gangs we are seeing in the big metro areas. Maybe one side or the other gets foggy and takes shots at .gov. Like terrorist attacks (i.e. Timothy McVeigh style attacks). As a .gov employee, that thought scares me.
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We are at war, but most do not see it yet because it is not the conventional illustrations. Nevertheless, everything we were taught to believe in as American citizens is under concerted attack.
Hyper inflation would do it. Not going to matter how much money is available, either in back account or EBT card- still won't buy anything.
A bad ADE effect from the jabs might do it, or enforced injections.
It will not look like the war between the states, more like Bosnia or Ruwanda- ethnic cleansing-maybe like the Finnish Civil war in 1918.
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Full on civil war? I doubt you could get a large enough group to form an army on one or both sides. There is a large majority in America that rests in the middle of all of this, most of us included. We just want to live our lives, no matter if we vote R, D, or a little of both. We want a good life, and a better life for our kids.
What I could see is guerilla type actions, if either or both extremes organize. Attacks on one side by the other, similar to some of the gangs we are seeing in the big metro areas. Maybe one side or the other gets foggy and takes shots at .gov. Like terrorist attacks (i.e. Timothy McVeigh style attacks). As a .gov employee, that thought scares me.
Yep. Lots of people would be caught in the cross fire if stuff like that starts happening. You would see the same thing with police and all sorts of groups that are labeled as for or against.
Look at the police who have been murdered in recent years. To my knowledge, none of them were personally responsible for any particular wrongdoing. They were just targets of opportunity.
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Well rent is due. This could be a very exciting month. If hundreds of thousands of people lose their home it is not going to be pretty.
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With reference to your 401 or savings accounts or traditional/Roth IRAs, don't forget what happened a few years ago in - IIRC - Cyprus. The Greek government raided peoples accounts and seized as much as 75% of the values in an effort to bail out the Greek government.
Do NOT say "It can't happen here." !! :facepalm:
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With reference to your 401 or savings accounts or traditional/Roth IRAs, don't forget what happened a few years ago in - IIRC - Cyprus. The Greek government raided peoples accounts and seized as much as 75% of the values in an effort to bail out the Greek government.
Do NOT say "It can't happen here." !! :facepalm:
Remember Biden is already eyeing 401ks they are just trying to figure out how to make it sound helpful.
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Well rent is due. This could be a very exciting month. If hundreds of thousands of people lose their home it is not going to be pretty.
That should have started things last year. Thankfully I am not a landlord. How in the America did someone twist up a legal rationale for an unelected government agency to suspend contract law? Bigger assault on the rule of law than all the Portland weirdos ever.
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With reference to your 401 or savings accounts or traditional/Roth IRAs, don't forget what happened a few years ago in - IIRC - Cyprus. The Greek government raided peoples accounts and seized as much as 75% of the values in an effort to bail out the Greek government.
Do NOT say "It can't happen here." !! :facepalm:
Yup, I and many others stated then that it was testing the waters.
I also remember a guy driving a front loader through a bank front.
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Maxine Waters
@RepMaxineWaters
I don't buy that the CDC can't extend the eviction moratorium - something it has already done in the past! Who is going to stop them? Who is going to penalize them? There is no official ruling saying that they cannot extend this moratorium. C'mon CDC - have a heart! Just do it!
"Who is going to stop them?"
If we DO have a civil war, crap like this out of DC will be the impetus.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2021/08/03/beauty-fades-dumb-is-forever-maxine-waters-dropped-for-trying-to-throw-the-cdc-under-the-bus-because-she-didnt-do-her-job/
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"Who is going to stop them?"
If we DO have a civil war, crap like this out of DC will be the impetus.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2021/08/03/beauty-fades-dumb-is-forever-maxine-waters-dropped-for-trying-to-throw-the-cdc-under-the-bus-because-she-didnt-do-her-job/
The problem I have with that opinion is the part that it would require specific Congressional authorization to do that. IMO, Congress does not have the authority to do that (or shouldn't) in the first place. In the second, Congress should not be able to endlessly delegate its authority to federal bureaucracies.
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"Who is going to stop them?"
If we DO have a civil war, crap like this out of DC will be the impetus.
https://twitchy.com/samj-3930/2021/08/03/beauty-fades-dumb-is-forever-maxine-waters-dropped-for-trying-to-throw-the-cdc-under-the-bus-because-she-didnt-do-her-job/
Like the garbageman complaining the mailman isn't picking up the trash.
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The war is over, long over. We're experiencing the mopping up right now.
Hopefully, they leave us older folks alone, to just fade away.
I cannot imaging what the future holds for the younger generations. It won't be anything we would recognize from our youth.
Focus on The Lord Jesus, family, friends. Try and keep yourself insulated from the "shocks" we have no control over by making good decisions.
I'm just not seeing widespread hatred that can coalesce into open war. I see a defeated, exhausted and somewhat satiated people who don't share many if any cultural touchstones.
It's not a bad thing that there won't be open warfare.
This is just my most recent reevaluation of our situation.
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I cannot imaging what the future holds for the younger generations. It won't be anything we would recognize from our youth.
Assimilation, most likely. Ever since my niece passed away, I don't get to see my grandniece more than once a year. With that kind of a buffer, every time I see her and we talk about stuff (she is 8 now), it saddens me what she thinks is normal, and what things are "bad" based on what she learns in school, and I'm not talking about the three Rs.
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Hopefully, they leave us older folks alone, to just fade away.
I'm just not seeing widespread hatred that can coalesce into open war.
They won't, because they LIKE to hurt people. It is the reason for their being. I can't recall the exact quote, it was C.S.Lewis, IIRC, but here is the essence-
for those who desire power, it is always necessary to FORCE people to do as demanded, because a reasonable and eloquent argument might lead to voluntary compliance, and voluntary compliance does not satiate power- the only way to know if one has REAL power is the ability to FORCE another to obey, against their free will.
So you will see hatred.
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I'm just not seeing widespread hatred that can coalesce into open war. I see a defeated, exhausted and somewhat satiated people who don't share many if any cultural touchstones.
It's not a bad thing that there won't be open warfare.
This is just my most recent reevaluation of our situation.
I disagree. I see real Tribalism coalescing. People are splitting into their little groups of "us" and blame "them". You can see the fractures in the main parties between the new cliques and the old guard. Even if we remain a "two party" system I think that the reality will start to edge more towards the coalition governments we see in places with 30 or more micro parties.
On the social side, I see people pulling back on interacting outside their comfort zones. It's easier to blame "them" if yo never talk to them. The AntiFa/BLM riots, and the armed groups they met when they left their little enclaves, are the start of this. Eventually someone will get froggy and two armed civilian groups will fight it out. Or Folks will get fed up with MS-13 or an analogue and take care of business.
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White conservatives are often described today in similar language that Jews were in 1930s Germany and it seems to be getting worse by the day. It remains to be seen if WC are willing to do what is needed, such as actually getting off their asses and voting and getting politically active in other ways, to put a stop to it before it's too late otherwise push could come to shove.
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I'm just not seeing widespread hatred that can coalesce into open war. I see a defeated, exhausted and somewhat satiated people who don't share many if any cultural touchstones.
It's not a bad thing that there won't be open warfare.
I don't know, seems to me the all consuming hate of the BLM/Antifa types is spreading through the ranks of the other leftists. I can see them cranking it up a few notches and starting to take out more of the white devils, whether they fight back or not.
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They won't, because they LIKE to hurt people. It is the reason for their being. I can't recall the exact quote, it was C.S.Lewis, IIRC, but here is the essence-
for those who desire power, it is always necessary to FORCE people to do as demanded, because a reasonable and eloquent argument might lead to voluntary compliance, and voluntary compliance does not satiate power- the only way to know if one has REAL power is the ability to FORCE another to obey, against their free will.
So you will see hatred.
Yes, it was Lewis. Here it is:
“Of all the tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron’s cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their consciences.”
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I disagree. I see real Tribalism coalescing. People are splitting into their little groups of "us" and blame "them". You can see the fractures in the main parties between the new cliques and the old guard. Even if we remain a "two party" system I think that the reality will start to edge more towards the coalition governments we see in places with 30 or more micro parties.
On the social side, I see people pulling back on interacting outside their comfort zones. It's easier to blame "them" if yo never talk to them. The AntiFa/BLM riots, and the armed groups they met when they left their little enclaves, are the start of this. Eventually someone will get froggy and two armed civilian groups will fight it out. Or Folks will get fed up with MS-13 or an analogue and take care of business.
I can see your scenario playing out, particularly regionally.
What I'm not "feeling" is a full on shooting war between citizens attempting to accomplish political aims.
Frustration, alienation from fellow citizens along with the tribalism I see all that also. Actually I've talked about it so much here in the past I burnt out on the whole tribalism thing.
I don't need to bring it up now anyway, it's obvious to most now and I don't have any answers, so I rarely bring it up anymore.
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I think we all agree CWII will be more like Yugoslavian style fall to pieces than CWI's opposing armies.
Of course, depending on the kids, the Khmer Rouge model may be on the table too.
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I think we all agree CWII will be more like Yugoslavian style fall to pieces than CWI's opposing armies.
Of course, depending on the kids, the Khmer Rouge model may be on the table too.
So long as the intended victims of a Khmer Rouge style regime retain effective weapons there won’t be a “Killing Fields” outcome. There may be huge loss of life, and depending on how far the Swalwell faction succeeds in going there could be widespread destruction. But even an American PolPot wouldn’t be able to wipe out that much of the opposition, on a percentage basis. Certainly not without incurring comparable losses themselves.
Now, if guns are eliminated from 99% of the conservatives, all bets are off. It’s no secret that’s why the left wants “Mr and Mrs America, turn them all in.” Thus far we’ve had quite good success at fending that off, and have if anything beaten them back somewhat. Whether that turns out to be the wrong side of the Battle of the Bulge remains to be seen.
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From what I'm seeing, they're going to mandate the vax. Then it's on. The massive media campaign to alienate and blame the unvaxinated for all this country's problems? Nothing happens by chance. Our best hope is they keep pushing too hard and there is reprisal. Had they slow walked this, it may have worked.
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So long as the intended victims of a Khmer Rouge style regime retain effective weapons there won’t be a “Killing Fields” outcome. There may be huge loss of life, and depending on how far the Swalwell faction succeeds in going there could be widespread destruction. But even an American PolPot wouldn’t be able to wipe out that much of the opposition, on a percentage basis. Certainly not without incurring comparable losses themselves.
Now, if guns are eliminated from 99% of the conservatives, all bets are off. It’s no secret that’s why the left wants “Mr and Mrs America, turn them all in.” Thus far we’ve had quite good success at fending that off, and have if anything beaten them back somewhat. Whether that turns out to be the wrong side of the Battle of the Bulge remains to be seen.
Yep. Don't disagree with any of that.
Still on the table though.
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So long as the intended victims of a Khmer Rouge style regime retain effective weapons there won’t be a “Killing Fields” outcome. There may be huge loss of life, and depending on how far the Swalwell faction succeeds in going there could be widespread destruction. But even an American PolPot wouldn’t be able to wipe out that much of the opposition, on a percentage basis. Certainly not without incurring comparable losses themselves.
Now, if guns are eliminated from 99% of the conservatives, all bets are off. It’s no secret that’s why the left wants “Mr and Mrs America, turn them all in.” Thus far we’ve had quite good success at fending that off, and have if anything beaten them back somewhat. Whether that turns out to be the wrong side of the Battle of the Bulge remains to be seen.
And when the would be victims defend themselves from the murderous mob, then the murderous government uses that as an excuse to go after the victims with the regular police and military.
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My prediction: They move to a "food is a human right," and attempt to force farmers to feed the city dwellers for free. There will be pushback, and then someone will attempt nationalization. At which point, the cities will likely damn near self-destruct, because the rural counties, who are already close to the mentality, will likely blockade...
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My prediction: They move to a "food is a human right," and attempt to force farmers to feed the city dwellers for free.
Hey, it worked great in the USSR. What makes you think it wouldn't be a stellar program here?
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My prediction: They move to a "food is a human right," and attempt to force farmers to feed the city dwellers for free. There will be pushback, and then someone will attempt nationalization. At which point, the cities will likely damn near self-destruct, because the rural counties, who are already close to the mentality, will likely blockade...
Hey, it worked great in the USSR. What makes you think it wouldn't be a stellar program here?
It would work infinitely better here. The right people would be in charge. :facepalm:
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Oh, and... full-vegan... or at least they say so...
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Oh, and... full-vegan... or at least they say so...
That is what Oregon is trying to do. Someone there wrote a bill that will ban fishing, hunting, and raising livestock if the bill becomes law. It probably won't this time, but the idea is there.
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I wouldn't say Oregon is trying to do it. Just a small group trying to get a ballot initiative done.
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I live in the Tower Grove neighborhood of St. Louis.
Gentrified, altho about 95% of the population, who voted for Clinton, will deny that.
I wouldn't dare put a Trump sticker on a car. Or a Trump sign in my front yard. I don't want to be vandalized.
And it would be a Good Thing, because they would be showing a Nazi who is boss.
Sigh.
These are the people who put Cori Bush in office. They constantly scream ACAB, FTP and Defund the Police... And they wonder why we have 'bangers driving on the major streets with running gun battles, and jacking cars and shooting up stuff.
They are in full denial as to the consequences of their actions.
But... I suspect they'd cheer as someone threw a molotov through the front window of a "bad person."
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Bogie - earlier this year, a friend of mine moved from an apartment in one of those older buildings near the intersection of Klemm & Russell, just north of TGP. One of the reasons they moved was that several neighbors had "BLM" signs on the front lawns. One of them in the same building also burgled their apartment and SLPD didn't even take a report.
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The cops are stretched very thin... Damn little patrolling, pretty much just reacting. And they know that if they do anything, they are just gonna see the perps kicked out of jail, sometimes on the same day. The city prosecutor doesn't bother to send her people to frickin' murder trials - so the defendants walk.
About a month ago, a raving crackhead pulled out of a gas station, clipped my parked car, and totaled her car and an acquaintance's car. The police responded, as did an ambulance. They let her go. They didn't search the car. They just got her daughter's number, and she was picked up. No insurance, of course. "If we take her in, she'll be out by tomorrow, but there will be reams of paperwork." And you gotta be sensitive to the poor accident victim's needs and requests...
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Keep in mind that once a group is pushed far enough - "after the first, all the rest are free."
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Keep in mind that once a group is pushed far enough - "after the first, all the rest are free."
And how far will WE be pushed before WE start pushing back? How soon will people that are being victimized feel they have had enough and won't waste time calling the cops and resolve the situation on their own?
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I figure it will happen when people not on welfare are forced to work doing something they would rather not do... Another major lockdown, and truckers are told to deliver or go to jail... something like that...
You'll see the folks on the dole running out of their essentials, and then going after them. Then looting adjacent communities. Then the mobile ones will go after more affluent areas. Who likely will ask their police to fight back. And I'm figuring that a lot of the cops will sit back to try to wait it out.
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According to Major Garrett we're 85% of the way there.
CBS News’ Major Garrett says we’re 85 percent close to an American civil war
https://twitchy.com/brettt-3136/2022/09/19/cbs-news-major-garrett-says-were-85-percent-close-to-an-american-civil-war/
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And how far will WE be pushed before WE start pushing back? How soon will people that are being victimized feel they have had enough and won't waste time calling the cops and resolve the situation on their own?
During COVID, a government official in New York State issued orders that killed about 10,000 elderly residents of nursing homes. Many of these people had adult children, maybe adult grandchildren, who watched as their parents/grandparents died.
Not one of these people was outraged enough to do something about the perp who killed their grandma or grandpa. Not one. If killing family isn't enough of a push, what is?
I truly wonder if we have the capacity for a civil war or new American revolution.
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Well remember what finally triggered the last one, an election that the Ds opposed the outcome of.
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Too many people from every part of the country depend on a check from the feds (employees, SS, Medicare, disability, welfare, etc). I do not believe there could be a civil war until these checks stop coming, or become worthless through hyperinflation.
People aren't going to support a fight against their gravy train, and these people are everywhere.
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Too many people from every part of the country depend on a check from the feds (employees, SS, Medicare, disability, welfare, etc). I do not believe there could be a civil war until these checks stop coming, or become worthless through hyperinflation.
People aren't going to support a fight against their gravy train, and these people are everywhere.
I was thinking more the other way around as in the D's firing the first shots.
1860: The Rs are going to take your slaves away
2022/24: The Rs are going to take your checks away.
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Too many people from every part of the country depend on a check from the feds (employees, SS, Medicare, disability, welfare, etc). I do not believe there could be a civil war until these checks stop coming, or become worthless through hyperinflation.
People aren't going to support a fight against their gravy train, and these people are everywhere.
DW receives two such checks, I receive one at this time. It'll be two checks after the first of the year.
We've discussed a second civil war. We'd both support it however possible.
I doubt we're the only ones that would.
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No civil war, probably more like anarchy and lawlessness at scales hard for us to imagine.
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Well remember what finally triggered the last one, an election that the Ds opposed the outcome of.
Well, it's not like they'll ever let that happen again anyway so...
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No civil war, probably more like anarchy and lawlessness at scales hard for us to imagine.
Most likely this.
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No civil war, probably more like anarchy and lawlessness at scales hard for us to imagine.
Not that hard to imagine.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fumlconnector.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fmad-max-2-road-warrior-img3.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
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No civil war, probably more like anarchy and lawlessness at scales hard for us to imagine.
I think that gets into what it would take to start one. Even as bad some things were in COVID or as bad as crime is in some areas, it still doesn't directly affect the vast majority of people. You mention thousands of people who died in elder homes, but there are millions in NYC. Also, that news came out later and the mayor who did it is out of office.
Part of that is people still think they vote for their leaders and have some small control over the Govt. I don't know what it will take to change that perception. I feel like leftist Democrats are trying to find out.
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What I'm figuring is that some outfit is going to set off some "peaceful protests" and the people in that area will finally go full Roof Korean...
And that will get spun into non-peaceful protests... Couple that with a breakdown in the supply chain, and things could go south pretty rapidly. And if an outside party trashes electric or water? I figure that most communications will keep running until it is good and spicy...
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What I'm figuring is that some outfit is going to set off some "peaceful protests" and the people in that area will finally go full Roof Korean...
And that will get spun into non-peaceful protests... Couple that with a breakdown in the supply chain, and things could go south pretty rapidly. And if an outside party trashes electric or water? I figure that most communications will keep running until it is good and spicy...
If we do the full boogaloo that's what I think will do it. The "approved" rioters will finally go someplace people have no patience for their antics, and mutual combat will ensue. Then .gov agents will show up to protect the approved rioters (Portland PD, looking at you) and the unapproved side will treat the .gov agents like rioters. Then it's on like Donkey Kong.
I still think a more general civil breakdown and local territories controlled by armed bands is more likely.
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I don't think there will be a civil war anytime in the foreseeable future. Just the USA becoming poorer, stupider, more violent and corrupt.
The FSA is too big to allow a civil war.
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I still think a more general civil breakdown and local territories controlled by armed bands is more likely.
We've pretty well got that in major cities already.
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We've pretty well got that in major cities already.
Not really. Think Mogadishu, not Detroit.
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Not really. Think Mogadishu, not Detroit.
Ya gotta start somewhere.